STORM2K

Posted: **Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:04 pm**

SFLcane wrote:
NDG wrote:Models are starting to coming to their senses, showing the core of the cold air to stay west and north of the Peninsula which makes sense with current & forecasted teleconnections. They also delay the arrival of the cold air.

Bulk of the cold air has never been progged by the models to head down into Florida especially with that positive NAO. it is gonna get cool its a good bet so bring it on.

The models a few days did show the core of the cold air to head towards FL, but obviously in a modified version, since then they have been backing away.
The latest 12z Euro now shows the cold front stalling across southern FL.

Posted: **Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:58 pm**

Yeh the Euro has a totally different track for the low then the GFS. GFS more of a east coast storm and the Euro has it tracking up the ohio valley. Huge track difference will make a difference in how cool will get. :roll:

Posted: **Wed Nov 07, 2018 7:59 pm**

Never bought into that crazy cold Euro solution form a few days ago. The NAO will be positive and the PNA will be negative thus the SE Ridge will be present to slowdown or stall any fronts.

Posted: **Thu Nov 08, 2018 6:51 am**

Latest 06z GFS doesn't even show 40s into central FL, it never fails when teleconnections don't agree with the models' cold forecast in their medium to long range forecast.

Posted: **Thu Nov 08, 2018 7:22 am**

Meteorology 101 at its finest lol..We have this touch up course and discussion from time to time..

Yeah have to have the right teleconnection indices to line up to deliver good cold spells to Florida, preferably. a -NAO or +PNA. Plain and simple, no matter how you slice it.

I checked the long range forecast going out to the end of November and the NAO looks to remain positive to neutral and the PNA remaining negative .

It is probably a good bet that above average temps continue for much the peninsula, at least until the first weekend of December.

Speaking of above normal temps, we continue with those here in the area. It reached 90 degrees here at my locale on Tuesday, and 88 yesterday. NWS Jax office broke the max record on Tuesday as well. Yeah, the persistent Southeast ridge is hanging tough for sure.

Posted: **Thu Nov 08, 2018 7:54 am**

May have to wait until the beginning of 2019 before we see any significant cool downs a lot like the last few years.

As of today November 8th it’s behaving and feeling a good bit like summer. The humidity is high, and there are thunderstorm anvils off in the distance.

Posted: **Thu Nov 08, 2018 10:09 am**

northjaxpro wrote::uarrow: Meteorology 101 at its finest lol..We have this touch up course and discussion from time to time..

Yeah have to have the right teleconnection indices to line up to deliver good cold spells to Florida, preferably. a -NAO or +PNA. Plain and simple, no matter how you slice it.

I checked the long range forecast going out to the end of November and the NAO looks to remain positive to neutral and the PNA remaining negative .

It is probably a good bet that above average temps continue for much the peninsula, at least until the first weekend of December.

Speaking of above normal temps, we continue with those here in the area. It reached 90 degrees here at my locale on Tuesday, and 88 yesterday. NWS Jax office broke the max record on Tuesday as well. Yeah, the persistent Southeast ridge is hanging tough for sure.

The very few times that goes against teleconnections is when we see a huge Siberian Arctic High come down east of the Rockies, the shallow arctic air doesn't believe in it

I believe that's what happened January of this year.

Posted: **Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:03 pm**

NDG wrote:
northjaxpro wrote::uarrow: Meteorology 101 at its finest lol..We have this touch up course and discussion from time to time..

Yeah have to have the right teleconnection indices to line up to deliver good cold spells to Florida, preferably. a -NAO or +PNA. Plain and simple, no matter how you slice it.

I checked the long range forecast going out to the end of November and the NAO looks to remain positive to neutral and the PNA remaining negative .

It is probably a good bet that above average temps continue for much the peninsula, at least until the first weekend of December.

Speaking of above normal temps, we continue with those here in the area. It reached 90 degrees here at my locale on Tuesday, and 88 yesterday. NWS Jax office broke the max record on Tuesday as well. Yeah, the persistent Southeast ridge is hanging tough for sure.

The very few times that goes against teleconnections is when we see a huge Siberian Arctic High come down east of the Rockies, the shallow arctic air doesn't believe in it
I believe that's what happened January of this year.

Yeah, that is true. I mentioned this a few pages back on here. I remember this very well as I stuck my neck out there big time and went against conventional wisdom and most everyone else by siding with the GFS. It was the only major reliable model which showed the arctic plunge in model runs in the days just before Christmas last year. GFS ended up being right and a +PNA did occur for a brief time at the beginning of January 2018 too NDG.

It turned out to be the most significant major cold spell we had across North and Central Florida for the 2017-18 winter season.. Otherwise, it was a warm winter with the +NAO in place.

Posted: **Thu Nov 08, 2018 3:03 pm**

Looks like a summer picture out there. I am sure snowbirds are enjoying it.

Posted: **Thu Nov 08, 2018 3:39 pm**

Looks like another warm and dry winter shaping up with the NAO positive most of the time. Maybe things will change with this El Niño.

Posted: **Thu Nov 08, 2018 4:06 pm**

boca wrote:Looks like another warm and dry winter shaping up with the NAO positive most of the time. Maybe things will change with this El Niño.

I doubt about being dry, I am sure it will be very wet at times with an active subtropical jet.

Posted: **Fri Nov 09, 2018 3:52 pm**

Well so much for that big cool down next week. :roll:

Anyone know what drives the NAO and the PNA, and why it’s such a long shot to get them aligned perfectly?

I mean the NAO at the end of last went negative for the first time since late Spring and now looks like it may not do so again for at least two weeks.

Posted: **Sat Nov 10, 2018 12:16 pm**

Regarding the NAO if we can get the Scandinavian ridge to retrograde towards Greenand, game on for December! Eric Webb hinted at this on twitter. Not only could it give us a prolonged -NAO for next month but also a possible sudden stratuspheric warming event down the road! Next weeks cold front won't get that much below 60 in Orlando lol. In fact models are trending toward a stronger cool down next weekend. I would't doubt if that tread continues.

Heck I wouldn't at all be surprised if tommorrow models completely back off on a front next week and go gang busters on next weekends front lol.

Posted: **Sat Nov 10, 2018 3:21 pm**

The GFS and Euro are crying wolf again next weekend.

Posted: **Sun Nov 11, 2018 9:04 am**

FlaWeatherDude wrote:Regarding the NAO if we can get the Scandinavian ridge to retrograde towards Greenand, game on for December! Eric Webb hinted at this on twitter. Not only could it give us a prolonged -NAO for next month but also a possible sudden stratuspheric warming event down the road! Next weeks cold front won't get that much below 60 in Orlando lol. In fact models are trending toward a stronger cool down next weekend. I would't doubt if that tread continues.

Heck I wouldn't at all be surprised if tommorrow models completely back off on a front next week and go gang busters on next weekends front lol.

Eric Webb has been calling for a -NAO since the summer and it has not materialize.

Posted: **Sun Nov 11, 2018 9:07 am**

TheStormExpert wrote:The GFS and Euro are crying wolf again next weekend.

The models have been horrible past 5 days, way too progressive. Just yesterday morning Wednesday was supposed to be a cool day now forecasted to be in the 80s across the Peninsula.

Posted: **Sun Nov 11, 2018 9:33 am**

NDG wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:The GFS and Euro are crying wolf again next weekend.

The models have been horrible past 5 days, way too progressive. Just yesterday morning Wednesday was supposed to be a cool day now forecasted to be in the 80s across the Peninsula.

Yep, and I bet you next weekend in a few days will be forecasted to be the same. It’s almost like they ignore the state of the teleconnections.

Posted: **Sun Nov 11, 2018 11:13 am**

My Wednesday high has gone from the mid 60's to the mid 70's. Looks pretty decent temp wise starting mid week around here but they've definitely backed off the early season cool shot. This seems to happen quite a bit. I'm not proficient enough with the teleconnection alphabet soup to comment but I've got enough horse sense to be suspicious of long range cold expectations....show me a front slamming through the deep south and I'm a believer.

Posted: **Sun Nov 11, 2018 12:50 pm**

NDG wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:The GFS and Euro are crying wolf again next weekend.

The models have been horrible past 5 days, way too progressive. Just yesterday morning Wednesday was supposed to be a cool day now forecasted to be in the 80s across the Peninsula.

I'll second those sentiments

Posted: **Sun Nov 11, 2018 1:31 pm**

We might be an a El Niño watch or on the verge of El Niño, but the pattern we are in is La Niña which is warm and dry.

STORM2K

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