STORM2K

Posted: **Wed Dec 12, 2018 6:38 am**

The temperature has dropped and surpassed the freeze mark, 31.3 degrees currently. The second freeze of this season measured here thus far. Lots of frost this morning here as well.

Beautiful, early winter day in store across this area with faiir to.partly cloudy conditions and temps rising to the low-mid 60s. It will not be as cold Thursday morning as low level moisture and clouds return flow gradually overnight. Lows in the mid 40s. It will be warmer statewide Thursday through Friday, with strong southerly flow ahead of the next strong system moving in from the west.

SPC does have us in marginal risk of possible severe weather over much of North and possibly Central Florida peninsula on Friday as a very potent, dynamical mid-upper level shortwave moves east along the southern jet stream through this region. We will have to monitor closely!

Posted: **Wed Dec 12, 2018 7:54 am**

Looks like Orlando went below 40(just barely). That's twice now before Xmas(Nov 28th, and now both nights around 38 according to this graph).

Posted: **Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:17 am**

Yeah, I knew yesterday that it would be a very chilly morning across the state this morning. A lot of locales have seen their coldest temps of this early season thus far, including here.

It never fails when a fresh snowpack occurs to our north, the airmass does not moderate quickly. Therefore, temps will come in a few degrees colder than initial guidance projections. Also, ideal radiational cooling in most areas allowed the temps to get very low this morning as well.

Posted: **Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:26 am**

Interesting looking at satellite and seeing the clouds now streaming in onshore in the coastal Palm Beaches and Treasure Coast thanks to the winds now veering more easterly as the high pressure shifts eastward more.

Posted: **Thu Dec 13, 2018 7:29 am**

SFL will probably get a drop or two of rain this weekend if that same exact played out last week.

Posted: **Thu Dec 13, 2018 10:13 am**

SFLcane wrote:SFL will probably get a drop or two of rain this weekend if that same exact played out last week.

Yep, looks like the best dynamics are north of South Florida in Central/Northern Florida.

Posted: **Thu Dec 13, 2018 11:32 am**

gatorcane wrote:
SFLcane wrote:SFL will probably get a drop or two of rain this weekend if that same exact played out last week.

Yep, looks like the best dynamics are north of South Florida in Central/Northern Florida.

hmmm...after looking a bit further I wouldn't discount the possibility of a line of storms holding together late Friday/Friday night, but more likely it will break up quite a bit before getting to SE Florida. Saturday we might have a better shot of thunderstorms with the frontal passage.

Posted: **Thu Dec 13, 2018 1:07 pm**

Hot off the press SVR outlook from the SPC takes the severe risk northward as compared to last night...north of a line from Daytona to Bradenton for the slight risk area. QPF estimates have been reliably skimpy downstate with a big bullseye over the big bend region

Posted: **Thu Dec 13, 2018 1:26 pm**

The drought down here is going to get worse if we keep on getting dry fronts with the El Niño not helping us down state. The lake in front of my house is only a 1/3 filled.

Posted: **Thu Dec 13, 2018 4:59 pm**

The latest drought monitor surely tells the story. All of the SE has been waterlogged as of lately with the exception of the southern half of the FL peninsula.

Posted: **Fri Dec 14, 2018 5:55 am**

It will be a very active weather day across this region today, and also into tomorrrow as well. Possible multiple rounds of severe weather pivoting across North Florida as this very large and dynamical southern stream shortwave system moves from Eastern Texas, then across the Lower Mississippi River Valley, to across the Southeast U.S. today through Saturday evening. Models showing general amounts up to 3 inches, with some spots potentially getting up to 5 +inches across Northeast FL. this weekend.

We will get richly entrenched within the warm sector of this large system later today, and that is when the concern with severe weather increases later today and into tonight. A very moist, unstable airmass awaits to be tapped from the Gulf of.Mexico the next 36 hours or so .

Dynamics look very impressive for severe thunderstorm weather potential and really will be wattching very closely.

Posted: **Fri Dec 14, 2018 8:25 am**

northjaxpro wrote:It will be a very active weather day across this region today, and also into tomorrrow as well. Possible multiple rounds of severe weather pivoting across North Florida as this very large and dynamical southern stream shortwave system moves from Eastern Texas, then across the Lower Mississippi River Valley, to across the Southeast U.S. today through Saturday evening. Models showing general amounts up to 3 inches, with some spots potentially getting up to 5 +inches across Northeast FL. this weekend.

We will get richly entrenched within the warm sector of this large system later today, and that is when the concern with severe weather increases later today and into tonight. A very moist, unstable airmass awaits to be tapped from the Gulf of.Mexico the next 36 hours or so .

Dynamics look very impressive for severe thunderstorm weather potential and really will be wattching very closely.

So you think the clouds we've had since before sunrise won't keep a lid on things (and we'll just have never-ending rain for 36h)?

Posted: **Fri Dec 14, 2018 8:46 am**

mlfreeman wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:It will be a very active weather day across this region today, and also into tomorrrow as well. Possible multiple rounds of severe weather pivoting across North Florida as this very large and dynamical southern stream shortwave system moves from Eastern Texas, then across the Lower Mississippi River Valley, to across the Southeast U.S. today through Saturday evening. Models showing general amounts up to 3 inches, with some spots potentially getting up to 5 +inches across Northeast FL. this weekend.

We will get richly entrenched within the warm sector of this large system later today, and that is when the concern with severe weather increases later today and into tonight. A very moist, unstable airmass awaits to be tapped from the Gulf of.Mexico the next 36 hours or so .

Dynamics look quite impressive for severe thunderstorm weather potential and I really will be watching very closely.

So you think the clouds we've had since before sunrise won't keep a lid on things (and we'll just have never-ending rain for 36h)?

We have already been getting steady rain now. So, the environment is stable for now. We have been receiving rain since after 1 a.m. here this morning. This will continue up until at least noon today. However, the instability needed for possible severe storms may arrive late this afternoon and tonight.

The atmosphere will become much more juiced later this afternoon as the warm front lifts further north from the region and southerly flow will increase substantially. Also, dew points into the upper 60s to lower 70s are forecast across the area late today and by tonight. Look for more storms to fire up and move into the region late today. We will see how it shakes down.

Posted: **Fri Dec 14, 2018 12:19 pm**

Looks like strong to severe storm chances drop off quickly once you get south of the Orlando to Tampa line. I’d be very surprised to even see a thunderstorm with the ways things have been with these storm systems/frontal passages so far this season. Hopefully we still pick up some beneficial rain nonetheless!

Posted: **Fri Dec 14, 2018 12:48 pm**

I'm surprised the SPC is still clinging to an ever contracting slight risk area. Threat looks to warrant no more than a marginal risk IMO. Mostly just a good rain event is what im expecting from the central peninsula north

Posted: **Fri Dec 14, 2018 1:00 pm**

With a storm system this big and wide in coverage one has to wonder why is the southern half of the FL Peninsula missing out? We're on the verge of an El Niño in a El Niño behaving winter so what are we missing? Anyone have any input?

Posted: **Fri Dec 14, 2018 1:10 pm**

It's got to cut off somewhere. This system is pretty far north so it's surprising the rain extends as far south as it does. In any case Winter is young and more opportunities will present themselves. Line of storms in the eastern gulf is looking pretty decent right now

Posted: **Fri Dec 14, 2018 1:25 pm**

It is indeed psyclone concerning the line of storms now in the Gulf. I have been monitoring it closely the past couple of hours. That line will cross the coast into the Suwannee River Valley region shortly and across North and Northeast Florida within about the next 90 minutes.

Posted: **Fri Dec 14, 2018 2:38 pm**

SPC finally gives a mesoscale discussion with a 40% chance of watch issuance. The best storm seems to be located west southwest of tampa bay on a heading that would take it inland north of the bay should it hold together. I suspect the severe threat is too limited in scope and areal coverage to warrant a watch although a weak tornado/waterspout risk certainly exists...perhaps similar to last Sunday morning. the chance of a decent thunderstorm of a non severe nature looks respectable from around the tampa bay area northward through the nature coast. As always things can change so this is worth monitoring..

Posted: **Fri Dec 14, 2018 2:42 pm**

I feel like Im doing to get a whole bunch of nothing... near the space coast

STORM2K

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