STORM2K

12Z guidance so far is nothing like that brutal 12Z/18Z guidance from yesterday. Cold for Florida but nothing historic. We will see what the Euro does soon.

Euro looks cold for Florida but no ice age like yesterday’s 12Z run had:

For now. Let's see if this continues or if we head back in the other extreme..

As the worm turns.........

Models prematurely dropped the PV into the US yesterday. I don't think that'll happen until at least around Groundhog's Day as the best downwelling from the #SSW will start to take place about then!!!

Problem is if it keeps getting pushed back two weeks every week we will be right around the corner from spring time. Longer days, higher sun angle, etc. Don’t see anything more than the usual quick front sweeping in and out to cool things down for a couple days then right back to short sleeves just like this weekend. Cold tomorrow then close to 70 by Tuesday. At least Mardi Gras should be very nice this year

CYCLONE MIKE wrote:Problem is if it keeps getting pushed back two weeks every week we will be right around the corner from spring time. Longer days, higher sun angle, etc. Don’t see anything more than the usual quick front sweeping in and out to cool things down for a couple days then right back to short sleeves just like this weekend. Cold tomorrow then close to 70 by Tuesday. At least Mardi Gras should be very nice this year

That's exactly right. The cold is always lurking on the 240 hour something or other. Meanwhile Spring will not be delayed...especially at this latitude. Speaking of which the pine trees are the first to begin dumping pollen and that started here today.

-42F in Crane Lake MN this morning, wow! If the PNA would had been positive and NAO negative this would had gone straight down to the gulf coast & FL like the models were initially showing a week ago but the teleconnections didn't match instead the core of the Arctic air is staying to our north.

Looking at the CPC Teleconnections page I’m not seeing any indications of the very rare -NAO/-AO & +PNA setup. If anything the NAO will remain positive over the next two weeks, of course the AO will tank negative, then the PNA is now forecasted to go negative within two weeks.

I saw the same thing that storm expert saw with the NAO staying positive and PNA going negative and this forecast is getting pushed back so much that the time it does happen which now I doubt it will be March. At that time it won’t matter because are chances of seeing record cold would of past.

psyclone wrote:

CYCLONE MIKE wrote:Problem is if it keeps getting pushed back two weeks every week we will be right around the corner from spring time. Longer days, higher sun angle, etc. Don’t see anything more than the usual quick front sweeping in and out to cool things down for a couple days then right back to short sleeves just like this weekend. Cold tomorrow then close to 70 by Tuesday. At least Mardi Gras should be very nice this year

That's exactly right. The cold is always lurking on the 240 hour something or other. Meanwhile Spring will not be delayed...especially at this latitude. Speaking of which the pine trees are the first to begin dumping pollen and that started here today.

Oh jeeez, really?? I hate when that stuff starts showing up and turning everyone's cars yellow each Spring. So far no sign of that right around me but it sounds like THAT'S right around the corner. C'mon cold! Stave off Spring for at least a while longer LOL

A very impressive cold air advection regime rushing in on winds gusting over 30 mph. currently across North Florida this morning. The temperature dropped 13 degrees in 90 minutes here. It was 58 degrees just past 9.am., now it is currently 46.2 degrees and it looks as if it has steadied it appears for now. Wow. It been a while since I saw a rapid CAA like this. There is a secondary boundary, which obviously came through here after 9a.m. here , behind the initial cold front that past through earlier around 4.a.m. this morning. A snowpack really has its effect on a air mass when it is in place for sure


There is a lot of new fresh snowcover now across the Midwest, and now the Ohio Valley after last night's winter storm through that region. The overcast conditions are evident across the Deep South on satellite imagery late this morning and temps currentlry are only in the 30s across the panhandle area and 40s across the remainder of the northern peninsula.

Temps look to hold steady where they are now here and fall off tonight into the lower 30s here by tomorrow morning.


For the rest of you all down state, you will definitely feel a chill in the air and brisk northwest wind by late this afternoon.

we've got some much below normal weather on the way...the big question is whether or not we get a big arctic blast and freeze...details that are important but unknowable as of now. I'm ready for it to warm up and stay that way...but mother nature says not yet...

Well psyclone, we have not had much of a winter to this juncture, but for at least right now through tomorrow, it is winter time here today!!!

I measured a northwest wind gust to 38 mph in the last hour, and with temps here currently in the low to mid 40s, the wind chill is pretty wicked.

The strong front earlier today brought us over an inch of rain as well. It was the first significant rainfall here for 2019.

TheStormExpert wrote:Looking at the CPC Teleconnections page I’m not seeing any indications of the very rare -NAO/-AO & +PNA setup. If anything the NAO will remain positive over the next two weeks, of course the AO will tank negative, then the PNA is now forecasted to go negative within two weeks.

Makes sense that the NAO will not tank into the next 7-14 days because the MJO is going to be moving into Phase 6 & 7 by the end of the month so it should turn above average for us in FL if not by the end of the month by early Feb.
Long term GEFS is starting to hint that.

So the Arctic talk is not going to materialize after all?

boca wrote:So the Arctic talk is not going to materialize after all?

We can hope. But we've got significant chill incoming over the next couple of weeks. whether or not there's a destructive grenade tossed in the mix is the question.

Highlights from 12Z guidance:

1. GFS going colder for next weekend’s front, now mid 30s down into Central Florida
2. Euro going with the FV3 GFS solution of a low developing at the base of the trough next weekend and rapidly deepening:

Just to add to the above...the latest 6-10 day outlook has a massive area of near maxed (next to highest level) below normal anomalies extending down the I-4 corridor. Whatever winter is going to do...the big show is going to happen in the next couple of weeks. weather watching is destined to be far more interesting than usual. Also worth noting how fitting a blast of cold would be with Gasparilla in Tampa next weekend. Next to the state fair, nothing seems to draw in craptacular weather like that event.

Wonder why this model suite doesn't tank the NAO?