STORM2K

Yep, our winter was cut short this year.

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1096400125402980352

The new norm is warmer and drier than normal it seems year after year. Winter isn’t cancelled for South Florida since it never started.I doubt this thread will be active anymore since there is absolutely nothing to talk about.

As much as I enjoy warm weather it is way too soon for 70 degree lows. Here's to hoping for some moderation much like we received last year after the exceptional February warmth. This stretch would easily be in the running for record warmth were it not for last year...it may instead end up close or a bit short. I've always thought of the shoulder seasons as offering the best Florida weather. Consistently warm and generally dry but not hot or humid. March and April typically deliver so hopefully our heat ridge eases back a bit in the long range. In any case I'll just enjoy what mother nature serves. The sun is out, it's warm and it feels pretty good..that's a solid baseline.

There is no such thing as winter in South Florida and never has been. There are just subtle little changes that if you look hard enough you’ll notice.

This year sticks out as different though as it lacked any extreme cold like we typically see once every winter season. Though there was an abundance of nights in the 40’s and 50’s, I recorded NO nights in the 30’s and nothing colder than 44°. Also these cool nights were all observed in December and January alone, not February.

Yeah it was a unique winter with a good bit of cool but no cold weather. Agree about the part of "no winter" in south florida. I think that's the whole point. It is a different world and it always has been. If you're looking for something different the only answer is a U-haul pointed north. On the other hand..i do wonder about our stretch of warm winters. we've only had one freeze here in the tampa bay area in the past 9 years. It's almost like South florida is now Cuba, central florida is now south florida and north florida is now central florida. As more and more of the tampa bay area is moated off by UHI thanks to net migration and development...freeze climo may be altered on a permanent basis..

psyclone wrote:Yeah it was a unique winter with a good bit of cool but no cold weather. Agree about the part of "no winter" in south florida. I think that's the whole point. It is a different world and it always has been. If you're looking for something different the only answer is a U-haul pointed north. On the other hand..i do wonder about our stretch of warm winters. we've only had one freeze here in the tampa bay area in the past 9 years. It's almost like South florida is now Cuba, central florida is now south florida and north florida is now central florida. As more and more of the tampa bay area is moated off by UHI thanks to net migration and development...freeze climo may be altered on a permanent basis..

You wouldn't believe the mango trees now in the Orlando area and Royal Palm Trees now have no problems growing here.

Notice the GFS super long range is trying yet again to blast the Eastern CONUS with a frigid arctic airmass. Will there be one last gasp of Old Man Winter for Florida?

No...there will be no last blast of winter. There will be a dose of more seasonable temps in March (which will represent a cool down from what's on the way) but there will be no blast of anything...except pollen. I am hopeful that we can get some mid latitude convective action before we're permanently below the fray which usually is the case by April.

NDG wrote:

psyclone wrote:Yeah it was a unique winter with a good bit of cool but no cold weather. Agree about the part of "no winter" in south florida. I think that's the whole point. It is a different world and it always has been. If you're looking for something different the only answer is a U-haul pointed north. On the other hand..i do wonder about our stretch of warm winters. we've only had one freeze here in the tampa bay area in the past 9 years. It's almost like South florida is now Cuba, central florida is now south florida and north florida is now central florida. As more and more of the tampa bay area is moated off by UHI thanks to net migration and development...freeze climo may be altered on a permanent basis..

You wouldn't believe the mango trees now in the Orlando area and Royal Palm Trees now have no problems growing here.

Royal palms are surprisingly tough. Much more so than coconut palms and even foxtails. We've got quite a few good sized ones around here and they did fine during the 2010 arctic blast while other more sensitive tropicals were severely damaged or worse. I am a fan of tropicals in general so i'm loving our stretch of good luck. Moss draped oaks with smaller tropicals tucked safely under the canopy is like a scoop of Key West and Tallahassee. It's an awesome combo

gatorcane wrote:Notice the GFS super long range is trying yet again to blast the Eastern CONUS with a frigid arctic airmass. Will there be one last gasp of Old Man Winter for Florida?

https://i.postimg.cc/xdYGwb18/fv3p-T2ma-us-65.png

That will not happen our winter or so called winter is well over back to 70s at night and high 80s coming this week. If the NAO were to tank than the map that gatorcane showed would be credible,believe me I’d love a night in the 40s and highs in the low 60s but it’s just not our year.

psyclone wrote:No...there will be no last blast of winter. There will be a dose of more seasonable temps in March (which will represent a cool down from what's on the way) but there will be no blast of anything...except pollen. I am hopeful that we can get some mid latitude convective action before we're permanently below the fray which usually is the case by April.

The entire state needs a good squall line to sweep through and wash all the pollen out to sea.
When will we possibly see one???

mlfreeman wrote:

psyclone wrote:No...there will be no last blast of winter. There will be a dose of more seasonable temps in March (which will represent a cool down from what's on the way) but there will be no blast of anything...except pollen. I am hopeful that we can get some mid latitude convective action before we're permanently below the fray which usually is the case by April.

The entire state needs a good squall line to sweep through and wash all the pollen out to sea.
When will we possibly see one???

Whenever this blasted SE Ridge goes away!

This stupid SE ridge is a huge pain in my ......The pattern will not change because the NAO is stuck in positive it seems like permanently.

boca wrote:This stupid SE ridge is a huge pain in my ......The pattern will not change because the NAO is stuck in positive it seems like permanently.

It has more to do with the PNA being now stuck negative than the NAO being positive but having it positive is not helping any.

wow we have heat index of 92 here in feb feel like june that start hurr season don't want june here that fast going spring here whole week their saying front will come in fl late week dont likely wont come into south fl

With the NAO continuing to remain positive I think cold fronts are over for us in South Florida and temps this week in the upper 80s it’s now summer in February. Welcome to the new norm.

Our next cold front won't be until mid-late next week when the PNA finally flips to positive when the long wave trough out West comes east and sets up shop on our side of the continent. Question is will this bring seasonal or cold conditions?

Melbourne and Fort Pierce reached 89 degrees today, breaking the previous records set in 2008. Vero Beach tied its all time record at 88 degrees.

I hate every second of it.

The latest 8-14 day outlook shifts the heart of the cooler temps eastward and really chips away at the above normal anoms over the southeast. If this trend continues that would argue in favor of a change to cooler and perhaps wetter weather as we head into March. As strange as last year was it's very interesting to note how similar the ongoing pattern is to a year ago. We may very well have another year where March ends up cooler than February.

FlaWeatherDude wrote:Our next cold front won't be until mid-late next week when the PNA finally flips to positive when the long wave trough out West comes east and sets up shop on our side of the continent. Question is will this bring seasonal or cold conditions?

The good news is Tampa's latest freeze on record is March 5th so now that my hope of running the clock out on Winter has worked out I'm cheering on the cold fronts and late season cold snaps. Below normal temps paired with an increasingly potent sun angle is an exceptional combo. As an added bonus, for coastal areas such a set up can help delay the onset of Summer heat later in Spring by keeping shelf waters cold. Here in west central Florida our coastal water temps have already bounced from the upper 50's to near 70 so I'm hopeful we'll get some cooler weather and considering where we are on the calendar and thermometer some relief is a given...the extent yet to be determined.