Texas Fall 2019

[wxman57]

OK, you've all had your winter weather for the season. Can I have summer back? I'll be heading to Chicago in 4 weeks, perhaps it'll be warmer up there...

[rwfromkansas]

21 this morning IMBY, colder than forecast. Some winters we can’t get this cold in January.

Wish I had a snow machine...it would have done great last night. Lol

[South Texas Storms]

Just talked to my dad in SA. He reports that they got some light freezing rain earlier this morning, with some ice on the grill and elevated objects. Impressive for mid November! Hope it's a sign of things to come this winter!

[Ntxw]

DFW got down to 22F which is 1 shy of the daily record and 3 from the all time November record.

Tomorrow morning will have calm winds but to beat lows will need a less modification of air mass in place.

Thru Friday morning will have chances at freezes if it can beat the forecast but 5 freezes guaranteed in the books.

[Ralph's Weather]

19 at my place this morning. Coworker in Georgetown said their schools are delayed this morning.

[CaptinCrunch]

Cool to see Central and South TX get a little bit of frozen precip, the reason NTX gets shut out is not enough moisture on the backside of these arctic fronts, and we dry out pretty fast. We need the arctic front followed by a upper level disturbance, and ample moisture to get decent precip chances. We had pretty heavy drizzle yesterday as the front pushed through, but by the time it was cold enough to support freezing precip we were dry slotted and what moisture was left evaporated before reaching the ground.

[hriverajr]

Got a bit of sleet visible on exposed surfaces this morning in Del Rio, Hopefully this is not a one off for this winter season

[Portastorm]

You North Texans ... don't get too upset. We really didn't get much at all with the freezing rain/sleet mix. It was enough to ice over a few spots and accumulate a wee bit on exposed surfaces. That was it. You really didn't miss much. But hey ... it was something.

Looks like the pattern relaxes now into December. Hopefully the pattern we've been in the last few weeks will return later in December or January. If it does, it should deliver the goods and then some.

[Portastorm]

19 at my place this morning. Coworker in Georgetown said their schools are delayed this morning.

Yeah, all the ISDs down here did delayed openings. There really wasn't much in terms of bad roads or bridges. I'm wondering if the frigid wind chills played a role in their decision-making as the little kiddies waiting on the bus would have been frozen! Of course there are always the legal concerns that if one mishap happens ... folks will sue the ISD and say "why didn't you delay opening or close for the day?" I was told that's a big reason why so many ISDs now are quick to pull the trigger.

[hriverajr]

You North Texans ... don't get too upset. We really didn't get much at all with the freezing rain/sleet mix. It was enough to ice over a few spots and accumulate a wee bit on exposed surfaces. That was it. You really didn't miss much. But hey ... it was something.

Looks like the pattern relaxes now into December. Hopefully the pattern we've been in the last few weeks will return later in December or January. If it does, it should deliver the goods and then some.

One positive aspect, Many of the major models continue to indicate troughing reforming at 500mb in central and western parts of the country. I don't see indications of a semi permanent eastern trough at this time. Eastern trough is almost always the death knell for winter weather in many parts of Texas. Hopefully the trend continues. One other note, most of our fronts this fall have over performed as well.

[rwfromkansas]

If you believe in the recurring cycle from Lezak and others (I think there is something to it but not fully convinced), the pattern will reload in a similar manner at some point the winter. I don't mind a western trough so long as it comes out at some point. That's when we get good winter storms often. What I hate is an eastern trough. In any event, if you believe the LRC, it started around Oct. 6 when we finally broke that heat and went into the current cooler pattern. While it's hard to say when it should end until any actual cycle does end, probably within no more than 10-15 days. So, a pattern change would make sense with this. Assuming the shift warms us up for awhile, we would probably get cold again by early to mid-January into mid to late February or so, so prime time.

I still don't know how much of it I buy, but it is interesting to follow.

[Haris]

25F this morning with a windhchill of 11F. White dusting on the roof tops here W of Austin.

Crazy how it is only early Nov. 4th freeze of the season!

[weatherdude1108]

25F this morning with a windhchill of 11F. White dusting on the roof tops here W of Austin.

Crazy how it is only early Nov. 4th freeze of the season!

My thermometer held at 28, granted it is under an eve slightly (to protect from rain), but low enough to still get air movement through there. I was thinking I can't remember a time when we have gotten ice this early in the season(?) down here. I love it!

[weatherdude1108]

Trying to share pics on here, but can't get the Imgur site to load them, since Tinypic isn't free anymore. I figure if it's not free, not worth it. I don't upload enough to warrant the cost. Ah well. Haris has better pics than I do. I have sleet and ice covering my grass and trees, and patio furniture. I had to pry open the trash can lid.lol

[hamburgerman7070]

Ntxw, do you think we get the -epo/wpo combo again? It was pretty impressive this time. I was just curious with how the mjo and other things are progressing.

[Rgv20]

Very very cold day here in the RGV as temperatures are still only in the upper 30s with some light rain in the area. The NAM model did a fantastic job as it forecast temperatures in the 36-38 range for the mid valley verified nicely.

[northjaxpro]

Very very cold day here in the RGV as temperatures are still only in the upper 30s with some light rain in the area. The NAM model did a fantastic job as it forecast temperatures in the 36-38 range for the mid valley verified nicely.

A typical shallow arctic air mass that filtered all the way down to RGV and Northern MX. Models often struggle with these type of air masses, especially forecasting temperatures. However, NAM did forecast this event very well. Impressive cold air event seeing this in mid-November.

[Rgv20]

Very very cold day here in the RGV as temperatures are still only in the upper 30s with some light rain in the area. The NAM model did a fantastic job as it forecast temperatures in the 36-38 range for the mid valley verified nicely.

A typical shallow artic air mass that filtered all the way down to RGV and Northern MX. Classic example. Impressive seeing this in mid-November.

Very impressive indeed...in the northern ranchlands there were reports of Sleet (so close! ) Just as a reference yesterday in Edinburg the high was 88 with a Heat Index of 89 and so far today the low has been 36 with a wind chill of 24

[CaptinCrunch]

Very very cold day here in the RGV as temperatures are still only in the upper 30s with some light rain in the area. The NAM model did a fantastic job as it forecast temperatures in the 36-38 range for the mid valley verified nicely.

A typical shallow arctic air mass that filtered all the way down to RGV and Northern MX. Models often struggle with these type of air masses, especially forecasting temperatures. However, NAM did forecast this event very well. Impressive cold air event seeing this in mid-November.

Temps are running under forecast highs pretty much every where, DFW forecast a high of 41, so far it's made it to 36.

[weatherdude1108]

I know the cold can be dangerous, no question, but this image the EWX put out cracked me up.

I'll dress for the CHILLY today!