STORM2K

weatherdude1108 wrote:I know the cold can be dangerous, no question, but this image the EWX put out cracked me up.

I'll dress for the CHILLY today!

http://www.weather.gov/images/ewx/graphicast/image7.png?6f981fd21ca473f9eefeea47a18e7481

I was the extreme cold dresser this morning while out feeding. It’s not often that I get to pull out all of the goods!

hamburgerman7070 wrote:Ntxw, do you think we get the -epo/wpo combo again? It was pretty impressive this time. I was just curious with how the mjo and other things are progressing.

This pattern will return. We are now entering a period similar where we were sitting in late September/early October. Massive EWB over the IO/MC (this has been the staple background force this year) that slowly progresses east in the tropics. I think by mid December we will see yet another major flip (from late November). During the moderation period is not going to be like the past few years, the Pacific has changed and warm/moist (source of the winter warmth) is no longer there so those extreme warm ups in winter will be unlikely. Look for another bout of some perhaps record challenging cold again after the first week of December. The North Pacific/East Pacific Oscillation will go back after taking a breather.

Interesting tweet

Brent wrote:Interesting tweet

https://i.ibb.co/bdD0RjM/Screen-Shot-2019-11-12-at-3-28-03-PM.png

Brent, i am golf7575 at southernwx in case you was wondering. HM knows his stuff also. Not sure if he thinks we get a SSW or not to go out on a limb to say that. Very interesting. It could get colder before then

Brent wrote:Interesting tweet

https://i.ibb.co/bdD0RjM/Screen-Shot-2019-11-12-at-3-28-03-PM.png

Back loaded El Nino and we are finally starting to step down from the heat spike after the last Super El Nino.

A warm up starts this weekend, but warmer temperatures only means normal temperatures for this time of the year. Another cold round for Thanksgiving but not like this one.

As Ntxw said, we won't see the type of warmups that we have seen the past several years since Super El Nino, these warm periods will be more consistent to our normal temperatures this winter. Precipitation chances for the next 30 days remains normal for NTX and slightly above normal across central and south TX.

Being out of town the first week of November I didn't have time to do my Halloween Analogy for this coming Winter, but it would suggest if I had done one that Winter 19/20 would be colder than normal, with above average # of freezes and average precipitation.

Unlike last year when the tell tell signs pointed to decent chance of winter weather for NTX that never happened, this winter will be different, and yes I do believe NTX will end its 4yr snow drought, and we could be in for a makeup year for winter wx advisories. Early freeze on Halloween has only happened 3 times now, and we haven't seen temperatures this cold this early in November since 1911.

My thoughts going forward are very positive for this winter, I'm stocked up on firewood even though I was second guessing my decision on a full cord (September). Now thinking about it, this cord may not make it to the end of February (leap year)

Maybe someone can answer this. The AAM is supposed to go negative again, which appears to lead to another cold pattern. The atmosphere is more niña like, which doesn't match the ocean. I know its still fall, but do we want to see the AAM negative more time than not this winter? A -AAM in the phases 8,1, and 2 is good or not and reason i say all this is because the IOD is really positive and it apparently leads to the mjo being in niño phases more times than not, especially during the winter. Sorry to be so confusing lol.

hamburgerman7070 wrote:Maybe someone can answer this. The AAM is supposed to go negative again, which appears to lead to another cold pattern. The atmosphere is more niña like, which doesn't match the ocean. I know its still fall, but do we want to see the AAM negative more time than not this winter? A -AAM in the phases 8,1, and 2 is good or not and reason i say all this is because the IOD is really positive and it apparently leads to the mjo being in niño phases more times than not, especially during the winter. Sorry to be so confusing lol.

You lost me at AAM.

weatherdude1108 wrote:

hamburgerman7070 wrote:Maybe someone can answer this. The AAM is supposed to go negative again, which appears to lead to another cold pattern. The atmosphere is more niña like, which doesn't match the ocean. I know its still fall, but do we want to see the AAM negative more time than not this winter? A -AAM in the phases 8,1, and 2 is good or not and reason i say all this is because the IOD is really positive and it apparently leads to the mjo being in niño phases more times than not, especially during the winter. Sorry to be so confusing lol.

You lost me at AAM.

Atmospheric Angular Momentum. Alot of moving parts, but i want to know what are the main things to watch for if we are to have a much colder winter than last? I believe most want to know that if anyone cares to share the information.

hamburgerman7070 wrote:

weatherdude1108 wrote:

hamburgerman7070 wrote:Maybe someone can answer this. The AAM is supposed to go negative again, which appears to lead to another cold pattern. The atmosphere is more niña like, which doesn't match the ocean. I know its still fall, but do we want to see the AAM negative more time than not this winter? A -AAM in the phases 8,1, and 2 is good or not and reason i say all this is because the IOD is really positive and it apparently leads to the mjo being in niño phases more times than not, especially during the winter. Sorry to be so confusing lol.

You lost me at AAM.

Atmospheric Angular Momentum. Alot of moving parts, but i want to know what are the main things to watch for if we are to have a much colder winter than last? I believe most want to know that if anyone cares to share the information.

Oh yeah, I remember hearing about atmospheric angular momentum in an atmospheric science class, YEARS ago. Very complex, but interesting! I would need a pro met to chime in in this one. A lot of variables at play there.

Down in the teens again be this morning down near the dew point. The can winds could allow for some for to form dropping is a bit further. At least there is no wind chill after single digits wind chills yesterday.

This little ULL coming through on monday is interesting. Perfect pattern, wrong month. Cold air ahead of a system like this would be a beautiful setup. Long range continues to show a mild period, but as we get into 5-8 day range, the models adjust and show cold and wet again. This November will be one for the books.

Also, 30F at TPB weather center. So happy the wind has calmed down lol.

If only tonight's low didn't shear out.

Ralph's Weather wrote:If only tonight's low didn't shear out.

One day late.

31 this morning at my place. Not the mid-20s forecasted. The high clouds created a "blanket" effect down here.

Down to 19° Here in Tyler. At least There’s no wind.

17 for the low. And we thought 11/18/14 was the ultimate in fall cold.

Ralph's Weather wrote:Down in the teens again be this morning down near the dew point. The can winds could allow for some for to form dropping is a bit further. At least there is no wind chill after single digits wind chills yesterday.

Got down to 21 here, clouds rolled in, temps rose back up to 25 this morning when I got up.

Hmm, Mabry (Austin) has been totally wack at least as far as "Weather" observations ever since the first "Light Snow" on Monday. Both the "Heavy Rain" and continuing Light Snow are incorrect.

Incredible cold snap for Texas and most of the US to the east of there. Made it down to 25 here in Lafayette, LA breaking the record low of 27. This is the earliest we've ever hit 25 going back to 1893, just imagine if it were January .