STORM2K

It's pretty frustrating watching sea breeze activity move up this way only to die out as it reaches the eastern metro counties. Back in the 80s and 90s, the sea breeze made it quite regularly through Austin. I used to love seeing it move in then playing in the water flowing along the street curb after the rain with friends, when summers were fun and not as hot.

starsfan65 wrote:

Brent wrote:

starsfan65 wrote:heatwave? in late September?

Irma did that last year seems like Gulf storms have a downside

We had Harvey last year.

Since Harvey dumped a ton of rain, much of Texas during the past 6-12 months in large part entered long term drought. We've had rainy periods, but overall net has been drier than normal. Ike kind of did the same thing back in 2008.

Tropical Cyclones don't just carry water. They are also a mechanism used to transport heat (distribution) from the tropics into the higher latitudes. Thus the warm core nature.

Cool sunrise reflection off some mid-level clouds this morning on way into work.





Looks and has a feel like it COULD rain. Best forecast I have seen in a while.

Cpv17 wrote:18z GFS with either a wave or weak depression into Texas.

Ugh, I hope not. That’s the day of the Clemson-A&M game. I don’t want to tailgate in a rainstorm.

The GFS is really wanting this wave to move into SE TX next week while the Euro has it well east of here..hmmm, which one to believe lol



Well would you look at that map? That is absolutely beautiful! Even the panhandle gets in some action.

Cpv17 wrote:The GFS is really wanting this wave to move into SE TX next week while the Euro has it well east of here..hmmm, which one to believe lol

Well would you look at that map? That is absolutely beautiful! Even the panhandle gets in some action.

the Euro has been all over the place to me... it's gone from a storm into Texas to a hurricane into New Orleans and now it doesn't even really develop it at all

I'd like to believe the GFS for sure

The last frame of the Euro has the max vorticity going towards DFW



So the Euro definitely jumped further west this run due to it being a weaker storm, I believe.

It seems they will peter out before making it to Austin (as usual). I'm predicting it will get breezy, and we may get a few sprinkles, if we're lucky. Tropical wave next week?

000
FXUS64 KEWX 291956
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
256 PM CDT Wed Aug 29 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
An inverted upper level trough and rich tropical moisture across east
Texas to keep isolated to scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorm activity ongoing over the Coastal Plains and areas east
of I-35 through early this evening. With the loss of daytime
heating, showers and storms are expected to come to an end over the
I-35 corridor but remain over Coastal areas and gulf waters. Some of
these storms could produce quick and heavy downpours as pwat values
are averaging between 1.9 to 2.2 inches east of the I-35 corridor and
the mid to upper coastal areas of Texas according to the latest SPC
Mesoscale Analysis Precipitable Water product. Also, can`t rule out
stronger storms of producing 40 to 50 mph thunderstorm wind gusts as
area forecast soundings show inverted v-shaped pictures.

For tonight, lows temperatures are expected to range from the mid to
upper 70s across most areas and a bit cooler across the Hill
Country.

Shower and thunderstorm activity picks up again across the Coastal
Plains on Thursday as rich tropical moisture remains across the
eastern part of Texas. A relative drier airmass is forecast to push from
the northeast portion of Texas into South Central Texas from Thursday
into Friday and this could limit convection activity to the Coastal
Plains and some parts of the far southeast counties of the local
area.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
An upper level ridge is forecast to move from west Texas into the
center part of the state by Friday. This feature will be controlling
the weather conditions across South Central Texas with only the
typical summer convective activity across the Coastal Plains through
the early part of the upcoming weekend. The upper level ridge moves
into the Middle Mississippi Valley late Saturday into Sunday and
open the opportunity for rich tropical moisture to push across the
mid to upper Texas coast Sunday into Monday of next week. This
moisture will allow for the development of showers and storms across
the eastern half of South Central Texas early next week. Rain
chances continue through the middle of the week over the area as a
tropical wave moves into the Gulf of Mexico and then into the
northwest gulf waters.

Interesting times ahead.

well FWD does have rain chances next week

That's a change from this week

The extended models continue to show signs of an easterly wave or
weak low in the Gulf the second half of next week. This may result
in slightly higher rain chances, especially across South and
Central Texas.

You can clearly see the sea breeze front approaching the Austin metro and coming towards San Antonio from the east. This sea breeze may be our demise (based on personal history).

Euro eps are awesome !!!!!

Haris wrote:Euro eps are awesome !!!!!

Best I've seen in a long time. Wet pattern looks to be returning to much of the state in September. Bring on the rain!

South Texas Storms wrote:

Haris wrote:Euro eps are awesome !!!!!

Best I've seen in a long time. Wet pattern looks to be returning to much of the state in September. Bring on the rain!

Hope so, because these sea breeze showers died.

18z GFS has the max vorticity into the San Antonio Bay area late next week.

weatherdude1108 wrote:

South Texas Storms wrote:

Haris wrote:Euro eps are awesome !!!!!

Best I've seen in a long time. Wet pattern looks to be returning to much of the state in September. Bring on the rain!

Hope so, because these sea breeze showers died.

That was expected today. Our rain chances don't really begin to ramp up until next week.

South Texas Storms wrote:

weatherdude1108 wrote:

South Texas Storms wrote:
Best I've seen in a long time. Wet pattern looks to be returning to much of the state in September. Bring on the rain!

Hope so, because these sea breeze showers died.

That was expected today. Our rain chances don't really begin to ramp up until next week.

It got really windy on way home from work when sea breeze moved through. Shook car.
Trash, leaves, and dust from different construction sites were blowing around. Temp in car went from 100 to 93.

Even though no rain, pretty cool adventure.

Euro takes the Gulf wave in near New Orleans again but its inland heading for DFW at 192

Either way GFS or Euro it looks like the pattern will be much more unsettled next week

Brent wrote:Euro takes the Gulf wave in near New Orleans again but its inland heading for DFW at 192

The op run of the Euro is on the far northern extent of its ensembles. Majority of the Euro ensembles agree with the GFS track into TX, at least that was case with the 12z Euro & it will probably be the same with the 0z tonight. Too many people are paying attention to the op runs and not paying enough attention to the ensembles.