STORM2K

18z GFS continues to show Tuesday being a big one. Sunday also looks much more concerning than some of its previous runs, with better moisture getting there

0z GFS goes off on Tuesday with what appears to be several rounds of supercells. The consistency from the GFS has been impressive and if it keeps that up over the next few days it's going to start getting pretty concerning. Especially if the Euro starts caving in. The potential for a Day 5 enhanced is there, although I think they might hold off for another day.

Sunday still looks pretty potent as well and I'm interested to see what the Day 3 outlook from SPC looks like. My guess is we'll see a Day 3 enhanced, a Day 5 slight with a bit stronger wording than today.

Enhanced Risk right off the bat!

Sunday still looks very concerning with a Day 3 enhanced risk up, although it appears it may be more of a linear/MCS event which will hopefully limit the tornado potential. Still could be looking at some embedded supercells though.

Tuesday is still up in the air on whether it will be a solid event or not. GFS continues to show a big event while Euro shows not much of one. Euro moves the first system out slower, preventing good moisture return for Tuesday. It also moves the second system through almost an entire day later than the GFS. A blend of these two solutions would be a meh event Tuesday followed by an overnight slop fest. We really won't know for sure which one is correct until after Sunday's event to see if the system moved out quickly enough for better moisture return. The SPC is siding with the Euro for now and has shifted the slight risk west for Day 5.

New Day 2 outlook is out. Remains enhanced risk but it has been expanded west and north. Large 10% tor area. Definitely setting up to be a potent fall season event.

Weather Dude wrote:New Day 2 outlook is out. Remains enhanced risk but it has been expanded west and north. Large 10% tor area. Definitely setting up to be a potent fall season event.

I'm now scared . . .



30/30/10% as well . . .

I don't know what to say about this 0z HRRR run . . .

Moderate risk Hatched tornado for OKC Tulsa

This has potential to be one of the most intense fall events I can remember. I will definitely be leaving early tomorrow to get back to norman before it gets real. These 15 hatched days don't mess around.

Who would have thought the highest tor probs of the year would be in October?

This is potentially an extremely dangerous situation!





My Storm Shelter is ready to go, this is going to be a very long day . . .

 https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1447192036092915715

Moderate risk bigger & slightly farther north




Also a 45% HATCHED Wind Threat

 https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1447239248810229767

Looking at radar of Oklahoma right now....yeah, the set up is there just based on radar alone. Fast moving elevated showers in the western part of the state indicates very strong shear and a potent boundary. Once that starts to interact with more moisture and the atmosphere is properly destabilized thanks to cooling mid levels and steep lapse rates as a result, any discrete storms could become super cellular in nature quite quickly.
Regardless of tornado activity, these storms are modeled to quickly form a quasi-linear convective system which could bring that damaging straight wind and large hail. Can't rule out some rain wrapped tornadoes as well.

This is the most dangerous day for tornadoes in OK since 5/22/19

It begins

My Storm Shelter is ready to go, replaced the Food & Water (Some of the food has been there for 10 Years!), & made sure that if we have to go there, we have the stuff going there as well (And I'm also considering bring cats down there as well, even though that everyone else would not like it, but the cats are not replaceable . . . )


Also put up Cardboard to protect the cars from the Hail.

Wow those probs on the tor watch are basically as close to PDS as you can get without actually being PDS

Weather Dude wrote:Wow those probs on the tor watch are basically as close to PDS as you can get without actually being PDS

Yeah I was surprised it was not a PDS. Checked several times

Not to downplay the dangers but just some observations. The convections in Western Oklahoma and NW Texas is very scattered in nature which isn't always ideal for a big outbreak. Also dew points across Oklahoma are in the mid 60s which is moist but not the most efficient.



So the question will there be concentrated super cells away from everything to take advantage as the upper level low nears. Or will it be numerous showers kind of taking away from each other that becomes linear with more isolated svr wx with wind and some hail as the main threats. Storm mode is always tough to predict in these risk days.