Florida Weather

[northjaxpro]

PNA looks to go positive by mid month , with the GFS is picking up.on NDG. Remember early January 2018 in which the GFS nailed a situation which looks very similar to this upcoming set-up. Remember, EURO did a poor job of initially catching the magnitude of the arctic air dropping south with a +PNA, which will once again look to offset a + NAO like it did in early Jan. 2018. GFS also nailedthe Southeast U.S. Winter Storm at that time as well in which I tracked from its genesis.

Like back then, EURO I think will be playing catch up to the GFS once again.

[TheStormExpert]

:uarrow: No support from the Euro, at all, for such epic Arctic blast for the Deep South and FL Panhandle by the GFS for next week. But it does show a cool day (for FL standards) with highs only in the 60s across central FL for Wednesday after lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.
We still need that NAO go way negative and PNA to go way positive for any cold air penetration across the FL Peninsula.
Last evening there was quite a lightning show across Orlando with very warm & humid conditions, it felt like a summer night.

There was lightning too off west in the distance here in SE Florida as well last evening, this weather is WACKY!

Hard to believe we will be going on mid-November likely with no significant cool downs here in S. FL.

[Patrick99]

I think now South Florida has the same climate as the Caribbean islands so as far as I’m concerned we are not subtropical but now tropical.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... /nao.shtml

Didn't Miami Beach, and the immediate coastal areas east of US1 actually move up a couple USDA hardiness zone classifications? I think they did.....lends credence

[NDG]

PNA looks to go positive by mid month , with the GFS is picking up.on NDG. Remember early January 2018 in which the GFS nailed a situation which looks very similar to this upcoming set-up. Remember, EURO did a poor job of initially catching the magnitude of the arctic air dropping south with a +PNA, which will once again look to offset a + NAO like it did in early Jan. 2018. GFS also nailedthe Southeast U.S. Winter Storm at that time as well in which I tracked from its genesis.

Like back then, EURO I think will be playing catch up to the GFS once again.

Jan 2018 was the exception for the usual aggressive GFS in its mid to late range forecast, lol. But that was one heck of a shallow arctic airmass that came down which models usually have a hard time with when is so shallow. I was in Houston that week, it was so shallow that the frozen precip was an all sleet event, no snow despite temps not getting out of the 20s all day, with Orlando dipping down into the upper 20s which was not forecasted by most models.
In this case is not January, no or very little snow cover across Plains and temps coming down from Canada as not as cold.
Also the GEFS show the trough not as deep across the MS river valley as the GFS shows.

[NDG]

I think now South Florida has the same climate as the Caribbean islands so as far as I’m concerned we are not subtropical but now tropical.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... /nao.shtml

Didn't Miami Beach, and the immediate coastal areas east of US1 actually move up a couple USDA hardiness zone classifications? I think they did.....lends credence

Yep, Miami Beach did move up a zone, to Zone 11A, same as the upper Keys which means it would be very unusual do dip below 40 degrees.

[northjaxpro]

Valid points about that situation in Jan 2018 NDG. But I am sticking by the GFS . The general idea is that although we don't have the snow cover now as we had at that time then, the main premise is colder temps are on tap and I think a significant freeze is still very possible of northern peninsula next week. GFS does very well in picking up these type of arctic air mass intrusion events on most occasions, which 2018 taught me and showed all of us.

[northjaxpro]

PNA looks to go positive by mid month , with the GFS is picking up.on NDG. Remember early January 2018 in which the GFS nailed a situation which looks very similar to this upcoming set-up. Remember, EURO did a poor job of initially catching the magnitude of the arctic air dropping south with a +PNA, which will once again look to offset a + NAO like it did in early Jan. 2018. GFS also nailedthe Southeast U.S. Winter Storm at that time as well in which I tracked from its genesis.

Like back then, EURO I think will be playing catch up to the GFS once again.

Jan 2018 was the exception for the usual aggressive GFS in its mid to late range forecast, lol. But that was one heck of a shallow arctic airmass that came down which models usually have a hard time with when is so shallow. I was in Houston that week, it was so shallow that the frozen precip was an all sleet event, no snow despite temps not getting out of the 20s all day, with Orlando dipping down into the upper 20s which was not forecasted by most models.
In this case is not January, no or very little snow cover across Plains and temps coming down from Canada as not as cold.
Also the GEFS show the trough not as deep across the MS river valley as the GFS shows.

But, GFS shined in accurately forecasting that event 10 days out at that time. You have to give it is due!! I know you like to hug ole EURO NDG , like most others .. This was huge for the GFS at that time for me, and I used it in my forecasts here at the company I work with to very good success. GFS won me over at that time with these type of arctic intrusions during that event, especially pertaining to the +PNA, -EPO/offset of +NAO teleconnections set-up, which was the case in early Jan 2018, and what we are looking at again now by mid-month.

[gatorcane]

South Florida hanging on for dear life day 7 on the GFS. It does look like it may just escape while north and central Florida feel quite a chill for November standards:

[canes92]

Does it stop right at I-4?

[gatorcane]

Does it stop right at I-4?

Looks like it, winds turn NE behind the front which keeps the east coast warmer than the west coast, plus looks like some lingering cloud cover. Still SE Florida would feel cool with highs barely making it into the 70sF.

CMC has trended colder for all of Florida by the way.

[NDG]

And the 12z Euro folds to the latest 12z GFS, much colder run for the FL Peninsula in the 7-10 day range, at least for now.

Edit: It now shows lows in the upper 40s across the I-4 corridor for Wednesday AM and highs only near 60 F.
Lows in the mid to upper 50s for most of S FL with highs only in the low to mid 70s.

[northjaxpro]

Yes indeed NDG. EURO and CMC joining the GFS with colder trend as I anticipated and explained earlier in my post this morning....

[NDG]

:uarrow: Yes indeed NDG. EURO and CMC joining the GFS with colder trend as I anticipated and explained earlier in my post this morning....

But the GFS dropped its earlier frozen precip forecast runs for parts of the north central gulf coast.

[northjaxpro]

:uarrow: Yes indeed NDG. EURO and CMC joining the GFS with colder trend as I anticipated and explained earlier in my post this morning....

But the GFS dropped its earlier frozen precip forecast runs for parts of the north central gulf coast.

Yeah I caught that as well.

[HurricaneBelle]

Looks like I'm going to have to dress warmly a week from Friday when I take my son on his tour of UF.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

That's quite a sharp gradient over NFL.

[NDG]

The latest 0z Euro went back to its earlier warmer solutions for morning lows next week, only in the upper 50s to low 60s for the I-4 corridor Wednesday and Thursday mornings, but it still shows cool daytime highs for Wednesday staying 60s across most of central FL with lingering cloud cover.
The latest 06z GFS has also backed out, it now shows freezing temps only for the western FL Panhandle, lows in the upper 30s & 40s for the rest of N FL.

[northjaxpro]

Models the.last couple of runs have been hintng at some cloud cover from the Southern Stream Jet that could keep us from getting to freezing here in Northeast Florida on Wednesday and Thursday morning of next week. This is probably likelythe GFS indeed is picking up on with the temp forecast going into about a week from now.

EDIT: Yes, the 06Z GFS shows a 1007 mb Low Pressure area moving out of the GOM and across North Florida on next Thursday and and moving offshore off the SE US Atlantic coast, which is a BIG change from yesterday's runs. We may have a potential heavy rain and severe storm event here on next Thursday. We eill have to see how this is handled in future runs the next few days. I mentioned earlier in the week that the GFS and CMC may be hinting at an active Southern Stream Jet next week on the Deep South Thread and indeed that may come to fruition.

[NDG]

No or very little consistency from the GFS, other than a trend.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, I discussed this possibility of a Southern Stream Shortwave when I created the new Deep South Winter Weather Thread for this season. The GFS backed off that potential yesterday in its runs, but has definitely jumped on the storm potential big time this morning. It looks like we will.see some significant feature come out from the Southern Stream as there is lots of vigorous energy rippling along the Jet looking at the models this morning. EUTO and Canaduan also has showing various solutions of a Gulf Low coming across the past couple of days as well for next week.
The next few models runs will be interesting NDG to say to the least.