Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
247 PM AST SUN JUL 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL KEEP
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY BREEZES OVER THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. DENSE SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOCAL AREA EARLY ON MONDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THROUGH 2 PM AST THE AFTERNOON...ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS WERE NOTED NEAR CATANO AND OVER AGUADILLA. REST OF PUERTO
RICO WAS PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY. DUE TO A
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE...HIGHER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED OVER THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO
RICO.

A DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY. LATEST
FORECAST SOUNDING FOR SAN JUAN INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL DECREASE TO AS LOW 1.07 INCHES THURSDAY. IN ADDITION DENSE
SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA EARLY ON
MONDAY. THEREFORE DRY...HOT AND HAZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE LOCAL AREA FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION
FRIDAY. HOWEVER..NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF
PUERTO RICO WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURATION WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS. VFR WITH ISOLATED SHRA ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL BE UP TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS WILL BE
MAINLY BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FEET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 91 79 90 / 10 10 10 10
STT 80 89 80 89 / 10 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
400 AM AST MON JUL 7 2014

...VERY SIGNIFICANT RED FLAG EVENT EXPECTED TODAY...

.VERY DRY AIR IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG WINDS AND VERY DRY FUELS
WILL RESULT IN EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. ANY EXISTING
FIRES TODAY WILL SPREAD VERY RAPIDLY AND BE VERY DIFFICULT TO
CONTAIN. VERY POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MAX
RH OF 70 PERCENT OR LESS.

PRZ014-025-VIZ002-071600-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FW.W.0012.140707T1400Z-140707T2200Z/
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FW.A.0010.140708T1300Z-140708T2100Z/
SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND-VIEQUES-ST CROIX-
400 AM AST MON JUL 7 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM AST
THIS EVENING FOR VERY LOW HUMIDITIES AND STRONG WINDS FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 002...014 AND 025...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LOW HUMIDITIES AND STRONG WINDS FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 002...014 AND 025...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM AST
THIS EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 014 AND 025. FIRE WEATHER
ZONE 002.

* 20-FOOT WINDS: EAST SOUTHEAST SUSTAINED WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

* KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI): AROUND 700.

* 10-HR FUEL MOISTURE: 7 TO 9 PERCENT.

* MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES: MID 30S AT CAMP SANTIAGO AND
BETWEEN 45 TO 50 PERCENT AT CABO ROJO...GUANICA...VIEQUES AND
SAINT CROIX. VERY POOR RH RECOVERY EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MAX RH
OF 70 PERCENT OR LESS.

* IMPACTS...PEOPLE ARE URGED TO EXERCISE EXTREME CARE WITH
RESPECT TO OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THAT COULD CAUSE WILDFIRES.
AVOID ANY EQUIPMENT THAT CAN CAUSE SPARKS NEAR DRY GRASS OR
BRUSH. DO NOT TOSS CIGARETTES ON THE GROUND. REPORT NEW
WILDFIRES QUICKLY TO THE NEAREST FIRE DEPARTMENT OR LAW
ENFORCEMENT OFFICE. OUTDOOR BURNING IS PROHIBITED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A COMBINATION OF FUELS AND WEATHER CONDITIONS SUPPORT
EXTREME FIRE DANGER AND/OR FIRE BEHAVIOR.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR TYPICALLY 24 TO 36 HOURS IN ADVANCE. LISTEN
FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
401 AM AST MON JUL 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS TUTT
BECOMES DOMINANT WX FEATURE. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THU NIGHT. SAHARAN DUST EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IMPRESSIVE 700-500 MB RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
MAINTAIN A VERY DRY MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT MOST OF THE WEEK GREATLY
SUPPRESSING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. SAHARAN DUST WILL BE PRETTY DENSE
TODAY WITH SKIES AND VSBYS IMPROVING ON TUE. ONLY WED APPEARS TO
HAVE THE BEST PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH THE PASSAGE OF A 700 MB TROUGH
AND IT WOULD BE ISOLD/SCT AT BEST OVR WRN PR. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THE LATEST TIMING OF
THE WAVE PASSAGE (THU NIGHT) DOES NOT FAVOR ANY SIG PRECIP. A
DENSER SAHARAN DUST EVENT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FRI. OVERALL...VERY
DRY THROUGH NEXT MON JUL 14.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. HAZE WILL LIKELY DROP VSBYS
BETWEEN 6-8SM TODAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT 15G25KT WITH AN
ONSHORE COMPONENT XCPT NEAR 10KT AT JMZ. SKIES AND VSBYS IMPROVE TUE.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 15-20 KT AND SEAS 3-5 FT XCPT 4-6 FT CARIB WATERS.
DUST HAZE WILL REDUCE VSBYS TODAY BETWEEN 6-8SM THEN IMPROVING
TUE. ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT DUST EVENT EXPECTED FRI LIKELY
REDUCING VSBYS TO 6SM OR LESS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VERY IMPRESSIVE DRY AIR OBSERVED ON 07/00Z
ST. MAARTEN RAOB LAST NIGHT WITH 850 MB DEWPOINT OF 0.6C AND 21C
AND 28C DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT 850 AND 800 MB RESPECTIVELY. WHEN
COMPARING IT TO MODEL GUIDANCE...ONLY THE ECMWF CAPTURED THIS
EXTREMELY DRY AIR FAIRLY WELL WITH THE GFS TOO MOIST AT THESE TWO
LEVELS. THIS DRY AIR WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY WWD ACROSS PR TODAY
ENHANCING THE FIRE THREAT. CONTINUED DRY AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH VERY POOR RH RECOVERY TONIGHT. GIVEN THE VERY
DRY START TO THE DAY TUESDAY RED FLAG CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY ON
TUE AS WELL. HENCE...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TUE.

THE FIRE WX POTENTIAL TODAY APPEARS VERY SIGNIFICANT AND WILL
LIKELY MATCH THE FEB 19 2014 RED FLAG EVENT. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
DRY AIR TODAY IS WHAT YOU WOULD EXPECT IN THE MIDDLE OF WINTER AND
WHEN YOU COMBINE THAT WITH TEMPS IN THE 90S IT WILL RESULT IN VERY
LOW RH`S. WINDS AS HAVE BEEN THE RULE MOST OF THIS SUMMER WILL
CONTINUE TO BLOW PRETTY STRONG WITH 20-FOOT WINDS 20G30MPH. ANOTHER
RED FLAG EVENT APPEARS LIKELY ON THU AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE IF THE
LATEST TIMING HOLDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 79 91 79 / 0 0 20 20
STT 89 80 89 80 / 10 20 30 30

[Macrocane]

Good morning.

A strong 6.9 earthquake occurred this morning in Mexico and Guatemala, damages have been reported: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=67&t=116471

The shake was felt in El Salvador too.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
246 PM AST MON JUL 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A GENERALLY DRY...HAZY AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY. A TUTT LOW OVER
THE BAHAMAS WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...BECOMING THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE...WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE REGION REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A GENERALLY DRY...HAZY AND STABLE WEATHER
PATTERN. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND
LOCAL EFFECTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS
INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. A TUTT LOW OVER
THE BAHAMAS THIS EXPECTED WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD CLOSE TO THE
REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME AS THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY DENSE SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA UNTIL AT LEAST LATE TUESDAY. A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. A DENSER SAHARAN DUST EVENT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ONLY VICINITY SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 6 WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DUST HAZE WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TONIGHT...BUT THE SITUATION WILL IMPROVE ON TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 89 78 89 / 0 20 20 20
STT 78 90 79 90 / 20 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
448 AM AST TUE JUL 8 2014

...RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...

.DRY AIR IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG WINDS AND VERY DRY FUELS WILL
RESULT IN EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY FURTHER ENHANCING
THE FIRE THREAT.

PRZ014-025-VIZ002-081700-
/O.UPG.TJSJ.FW.A.0010.140708T1300Z-140708T2100Z/
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FW.W.0013.140708T1400Z-140708T2100Z/
SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND-VIEQUES-ST CROIX-
448 AM AST TUE JUL 8 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM AST
THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOW HUMIDITIES AND STRONG WINDS FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 002... 014 AND 025...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM AST
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 014 AND 025. FIRE WEATHER
ZONE 002.

* 20-FOOT WINDS: EAST SOUTHEAST SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI): AROUND 700.

* 10-HR FUEL MOISTURE: 7 TO 9 PERCENT.

* MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES: NEAR 40 PERCENT AT CAMP SANTIAGO
AND BETWEEN 45 TO 50 PERCENT AT CABO ROJO...GUANICA...VIEQUES
AND SAINT CROIX.

* IMPACTS...PEOPLE ARE URGED TO EXERCISE EXTREME CARE WITH
RESPECT TO OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THAT COULD CAUSE WILDFIRES.
AVOID ANY EQUIPMENT THAT CAN CAUSE SPARKS NEAR DRY GRASS OR
BRUSH. DO NOT TOSS CIGARETTES ON THE GROUND. REPORT NEW
WILDFIRES QUICKLY TO THE NEAREST FIRE DEPARTMENT OR LAW
ENFORCEMENT OFFICE. OUTDOOR BURNING IS PROHIBITED.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A COMBINATION OF FUELS AND WEATHER CONDITIONS SUPPORT
EXTREME FIRE DANGER AND/OR FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
455 AM AST TUE JUL 8 2014

.UPDATE...HEADLINES CHANGED AT THE BOTTOM FOR UPGRADE TO RED FLAG
WARNING.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A PAIR OF WEAK TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CARIB SEA NEXT SVRL DAYS BUT STAY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG 700-500 MB RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
MAINTAIN AN OVERALL VERY DRY MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI. ANOTHER DENSE LAYER
OF SAHARAN DUST TRAILS THIS WAVE AND WILL ARRIVE INTO OUR AREA FRI
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH SAT.

FOR TODAY...DUST HAZE WILL EXIT THE REGION EARLY WITH SKIES AND
VSBY IMPROVING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AND ALLOW ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TO FORM OVR
WRN PR THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE HOWEVER REMAINS IN SHORT SUPPLY SO
NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY.

MOISTURE INCREASES FURTHER ON WED WITH GREATER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVR WRN/NW PR. SHARP AND VERY SIGNIFICANT
DRYING OCCURS ON THU AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU NIGHT THRU FRI MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS MAINLY OVER WATER...NE PR...USVI AND FAR NW PR. LATEST TIMING
SHOWS DRYING AND SAHARAN DUST SPREADING QUICKLY ACROSS PR AFTER
18Z FRI. FURTHER DRYING EXPECTED SUN THROUGH TUE. IN SUMMARY...THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS CONTINUE TO LOOK PARTICULARLY VERY DRY WITH MUCH
BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...HAZE WILL EXIT THE REGION EARLY WITH SKIES AND VSBY
IMPROVING RAPIDLY. A T-STORM POSSIBLE AT JMZ LATER THIS AFTERNOON
SO A VCTS WAS INCLUDED IN THE 06Z TAF. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 15-20 KT THROUGH EARLY SAT WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS 3-5 FT XCPT
4-6 FT CARIB WATERS THROUGH FRI. ANOTHER DUST EVENT FRI AND SAT
WILL REDUCE VSBYS BETWEEN 6-8SM.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CURRENT OBS AND FCST MAX TEMPS SUGGEST THAT RED
FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE MET LATER TODAY. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL ALSO STEEPEN LATER TODAY FURTHER ENHANCING THE FIRE THREAT.
THUS...RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 5PM. ANOTHER RED
FLAG EVENT APPEARS LIKELY ON THU. OVERALL...THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS
CONTINUE TO LOOK PARTICULARLY VERY DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 81 91 81 / 0 20 20 30
STT 89 81 89 81 / 20 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
235 PM AST TUE JUL 8 2014

.DISCUSSION...TUTT TROUGH TO EXTEND BASICALLY EAST-WEST ACROSS OUR
NORTHSIDE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE WE WILL HAVE WEAK LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGHS MIGRATE WESTWARD ACROSS THE ISLANDS. RESULT
IS THAT WE CONTINUE TO OSCILLATE BETWEEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
VERY DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THIS ROUND OF SAHARAN DUST IS
WINDING DOWN AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TONIGHT.

SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER LEEWARD ISLANDS AND EXTENDING NORTHWARD
WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT. THEY ARE QUITE UNIMPRESSIVE ON TFFR
RADAR AND EXPECT THEM TO BE REMAIN SCATTERED AS THEY PASS...EXCEPT
THAT ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY EXCEPT SOME THUNDER TO
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN PR WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SAHARAN DUST CONTINUES ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA...RESULTING
IN LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF 6-8 SM. 08/12Z TJSJ RAOB SHOWED
MAINLY LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE E TO ENE BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE AS WINDS REMAIN BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS BELOW
6 FT. LONG PERIOD SWELLS ACROSS TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN
FOCUSSED ON WINDWARD ISLANDS WHILE NO STORMS IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL BE OF CONSEQUENCE IN THIS REGARD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS TODAY WILL IMPROVE AS THE
SEA BREEZE CONTINUES FOR AWHILE AND THE SUN LOWERS. ACCORDING GFS
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS MOST ON THU WHILE ANOTHER
WAVE PUSHES DRY ACROSS THE REGION. IF WE HAVE RED FLAG AGAIN THIS
WEEK THAT APPEARS TO BE THE DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 91 82 91 / 30 30 30 10
STT 82 89 82 89 / 30 30 30 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
428 AM AST WED JUL 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD MID NEXT WEEK.
A PAIR OF EASTERLY WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRI.
SAL WILL ESTABLISH FRI AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...700-500 MB TROUGH EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL
MOVE WWD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA NEXT 24 HRS AND PROMOTE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING WHEN BEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS FCST. SHARP
AND VERY SIGNIFICANT DRYING EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING
BEHIND TROUGH PASSAGE WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 55W WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA THU WHILE A SECOND WAVE FARTHER EAST CURRENTLY ALONG
45W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRI MORNING WITH SAL QUICKLY
ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT DRYING EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ERN
CARIB SEA TUE BUT STAY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. MID-UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINANT MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK.

IN SUMMARY...TODAY APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST/HIGHEST PROBS AND
GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH
EXCEPTIONALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE PERIOD UNDER
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT PATTERN AND SAL.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHOWERS THIS MORNING WITH T-STORMS POSSIBLE AT JMZ
AND JBQ LATER TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 20KT THROUGH FRI MORNING THEN
DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS 4-6 FT
THROUGH FRI MORNING THEN DIMINISHING 3-5 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SHARP AND VERY SIGNIFICANT DRYING EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH THU MORNING BEHIND TROUGH PASSAGE AND AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE.
LATEST BLENDED TPW PRODUCT SHOWS PWATS MAY DROP AS LOW AS AN INCH
THU MORNING WHICH WOULD BE EXTREME FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
MODEL LAYER RH`S (1000-500 MB AND 1000-700 MB) ALSO SHOW VERY LOW
VALUES NEAR -2SD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH 800 MB DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS IN EXCESS OF 30C. THIS IS EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AIR FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND MORE TYPICALLY OF WINTER TIME. WINDS
ALSO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH FRI MORNING. THUS...FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

MOISTURE RECOVERS LATE THU THRU EARLY FRI WITH LOW-MID LEVEL DRYING
EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...MODELS
SHOW WINDS DIMINISHING CONSIDERABLY WITH SUBSTANTIAL MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD DECK. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER RED FLAG OR NOT...THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS LOOK EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AFTER TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 80 91 80 / 40 10 0 50
STT 89 80 89 80 / 40 10 0 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
311 PM AST WED JUL 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD MID
NEXT WEEK. A PAIR OF EASTERLY WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY. SAL WILL ESTABLISH FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY ACTIVE AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST
SECTION OF PUERTO RICO WITH EXPLOSIVE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
U.S.G.S GAUGES SHOWED 3.2 INCHES IN 1 HOUR OVER RIO GRANDE DE
ANASCO. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATED NEAR
SUNSET. THIS ACTIVITY WAS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH LOCATED TO OUR WEST...AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL
EFFECTS. FOR TOMORROW...A SLOT OF DRY AIR WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL
AREA...LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY AND WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...VERY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
SAHARAN AIR LAYER ALSO EXPECTED TO DOMINATES THE REGION. IN THE
LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT
THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AT JMZ AND JBQ THROUGH 09/22Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY FROM THE
E AT 10-15 KNOTS FROM SFC UP T0 20 KFT.
&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON FOR FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 002...014...015 AND 025.
REFER TO LATEST RFWSJU PRODUCT FOR LATEST INFORMATION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 91 80 90 / 10 0 50 50
STT 80 89 80 91 / 10 0 50 50

[cycloneye]

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
442 AM AST THU JUL 10 2014

...RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...

.SHARP AND SIGNIFICANT DRYING EXPECTED THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AT THE SAME
TIME...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. VERY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL EXISTS
TODAY ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO DUE TO EXTREME
DRYNESS...STRONG WINDS AND EXCEPTIONALLY DRY FUELS.

PRZ014-015-025-101645-
/O.UPG.TJSJ.FW.A.0011.140710T1300Z-140710T2100Z/
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FW.W.0014.140710T1200Z-140710T2100Z/
SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND-SOUTHERN HILLS-VIEQUES-
442 AM AST THU JUL 10 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM AST
THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOW HUMIDITIES AND STRONG WINDS FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 014... 015 AND 025...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM AST
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* 20-FOOT WINDS: EAST SOUTHEAST SUSTAINED WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

* KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI): AROUND 700.

* 10-HR FUEL MOISTURE: 7 TO 9 PERCENT.

* MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY: MID 30S AT CAMP SANTIAGO AND MID TO
UPPER 40S AT CABO ROJO...GUANICA...VIEQUES.

* IMPACTS...PEOPLE ARE URGED TO EXERCISE EXTREME CARE WITH
RESPECT TO OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THAT COULD CAUSE WILDFIRES.
AVOID ANY EQUIPMENT THAT CAN CAUSE SPARKS NEAR DRY GRASS OR
BRUSH. DO NOT TOSS CIGARETTES ON THE GROUND. REPORT NEW
WILDFIRES QUICKLY TO THE NEAREST FIRE DEPARTMENT OR LAW
ENFORCEMENT OFFICE. OUTDOOR BURNING IS PROHIBITED.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A COMBINATION OF FUELS AND WEATHER CONDITIONS SUPPORT
EXTREME FIRE DANGER AND/OR FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
419 AM AST THU JUL 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL REMAIN DOMINANT WX FEATURE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK
WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVR THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEK. A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ERN CARIB
SEA DURING THE NEXT 36 HRS WITHOUT MUCH IMPACTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SIGNIFICANT DRYING EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN.
THIS DRYING IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST BLENDED AND LPW PRODUCTS AND
0720Z GOES SOUNDER SCAN OVR THE E CARIBBEAN. A SECOND TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 55W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ERN CARIB TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRI. TIMING OF WAVE PASSAGE DOES NOT FAVOR MUCH CONVECTION OVR
LAND AREAS XCPT OVR ERN PR TONIGHT. WAVE AXIS REACHES 70W BY
18Z FRI WITH RAPID DRYING AND SAHARAN DUST ESTABLISHING QUICKLY
FRI AFTERNOON. SAHARAN DUST PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE
TUTT TO THE NORTH MAINTAINS AN OVERALL UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT
PATTERN WITH VERY DRY MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT GREATLY SUPPRESSING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS. DUST HAZE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER 18Z FRI AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH VSBY BETWEEN 6-8SM.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 20KT THROUGH FRI MORNING THEN
DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS 4-6 FT
THRU FRI THEN 3-5 FT SAT ON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CURRENT OBS AND 24-HR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WILL BE MET OVER PR AND VIEQUES LATER THIS MORNING
WHILE AT ST. CROIX IT WILL BE MORE MARGINAL/IFFY GIVEN THE CORE OF
DRIEST AIR WILL MOVE AROUND 12Z BEFORE TEMPS REACH THE 90S. IF IT
VERIFIES THERE IT WOULD BE BEFORE 18Z AS PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO
RECOVER RATHER QUICKLY. WILL ISSUE RFW`S FOR PR ZONES BY 6AM AND
DECIDE A BIT LATER ON ST. CROIX.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 88 79 / 0 50 50 10
STT 90 79 89 79 / 0 50 50 10

[cycloneye]

Moderate drought has been declared for parts of PR.



http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/Stat ... or.aspx?PR

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/Narrative.aspx

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
302 PM AST THU JUL 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL REMAIN DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH MID
WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE INHIBITED SOMEWHAT
THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER PUERTO RICO. TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE LOW 90S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT
20 KNOTS OR LESS.

TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY. TIMING OF WAVE PASSAGE DOES NOT FAVOR MUCH CONVECTION
OVER LAND AREAS EXCEPT OVER EASTERN PR AND USVI TONIGHT. AS WAVE
MOVES AWAY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A DRIER AIR MASS WITH AND SAHARAN DUST
WILL ESTABLISH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SAHARAN DUST PERSISTS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE TUTT TO THE NORTH MAINTAINS AN OVERALL
UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT PATTERN WITH VERY DRY MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
GREATLY SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

THEREFORE FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AN OVERALL DRIER
WEATHER PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA WITH MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MINIMAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PASSING
SHRA WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS THE FLYING AREA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THEN...DRY AIR IS EXPECTED FRI...LIMITING SHRA ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 6 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS UP TO 20KT. THEREFORE...
SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VERY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE
OVER SOUTH PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND SAINT CROIX DUE TO EXTREME
DRYNESS...STRONG WINDS AND EXCEPTIONALLY DRY FUELS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 78 90 / 50 50 10 10
STT 80 90 79 90 / 50 50 10 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
420 AM AST FRI JUL 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING. A DRIER AIR MASS BEHIND THE WAVE WILL
ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MEANDER ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LEADING EDGE OF TROPICAL WAVE BROUGHT LINES OF
SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO
EARLY THIS MORNING. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE BETWEEN THREE
QUARTER TO ONE INCH IN SOME AREAS IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION OF
PUERTO RICO. TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST THIS
MORNING AND DURING THE FIRST PART OF THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
LATEST SATELITE IMAGES WERE SHOWING A DRIER AIR MASS BEHIND THE
WAVE...RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE WAVE...WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THE WEEKEND...A DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE
LOCAL REGION...WHICH WILL LIMIT SOMEWHAT THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...WILL
CONTINUE TO MEANDER THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...BUT AT THIS TIME...IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE IN A FAVORABLE POSITION TO AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PASSING SHRA ACROSS THE FLYING
AREA. THIS AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN PR. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST TO ESE AT AROUND 10 KTS AND GUSTY
AFTER 11/13Z CONTINUING FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20KT. THEREFORE...
SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS ALL LOCAL
WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 78 89 78 / 50 10 10 10
STT 90 80 90 79 / 50 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
347 PM AST FRI JUL 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WORKWEEK...WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD FROM
THE EAST MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS. SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN...
WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST PR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE THE RESULT OF LINGERING MOISTURE...
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING TROPICAL WAVE...LOCAL EFFECTS AND
DIURNAL HEATING. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW 90S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 20 KNOTS OR LESS.

A DRIER AIR MASS WITH SAHARAN DUST WILL CONTINUE TO ESTABLISH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO
MOVE AWAY. SAHARAN DUST WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE
TUTT TO THE NORTH MAINTAINS AN OVERALL UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT PATTERN.
AS A RESULT...DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...EXPECT AN OVERALL DRIER
WEATHER PATTERN WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS...PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO
RICO.

THE DEEP TUTT PATTERN WILL SUSTAIN AN INVERTED/INDUCED TROUGH IN THE
TRADES. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE USVI AND PR ON
MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. THEREFORE...FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PREVAIL EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ/TJBQ OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VFR CONDS THEN EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST TO ESE AT AROUND 15
TO 20KTS...DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20KT. THEREFORE...
SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS ALL LOCAL
WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 88 79 88 / 10 10 10 10
STT 79 91 79 91 / 10 10 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
505 AM AST SAT JUL 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TUTT LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF CUBA AND ANOTHER LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND NORTH OF THE REGION...IS SEPARATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BASIN. THE UPPER LOWS ARE TO
CONTINUE RETROGRESSING WEST SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK. IN THE LOW LEVELS...STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL SINK FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY TO INDUCE A MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE
WINDS FLOW THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOSENS IN RESPONSE TO AN INDUCED LOW LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN BY EARLY
MONDAY. THEREAFTER...MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS
WILL RETURN TO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NAAPS AEROSOL PRODUCTS BOTH SUGGEST MUCH
DRIER CONDITIONS AS THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER/SAL IS TO CONTINUE TO
SPREAD WESTWARDS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
AND PERSIST THRU AT LEAST MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DRIER AIR MASS WITH MILD AMOUNTS OF SUSPENDED
SAHARAN DUST WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
IN THE MEANTIME...THE TUTT JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION ALONG
WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE OVERHEAD SHOULD MAINTAIN THE REGION IN AN
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT PATTERN. ALTHOUGH HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS
CLOUDS WILL INVADE THE FORECAST AREA TODAY DUE TO THE PREVAILING
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES...STILL EXPECT LOCAL SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
AND DAYTIME HEATING TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE
ISLANDS AS WELL AS CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD
EXPERIENCE MOSTLY SUNNY AND FAIR WEATHER SKIES.

DURING THE REST OF THE WEEKEND... CONTINUED DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED
WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES WITH LIMITED AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO. BY EARLY MONDAY THE WEAKLY INDUCED
LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS TO QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SO FAR
NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE EXCEPT
FOR A BRIEF SHIFT IN THE PREVAILING EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST OVERALL
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
FEATURE IN SITE FOR THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA ACROSS WESTERN PR AFTER 12/18Z MAY AFFECT
TJMZ. WINDS WILL BE AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY
FROM THE EAST. AFTER 12/14Z...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS FROM
THE EAST TO E-SE WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY...BUT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY NEXT
NEXT WEEK THEN STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
LIKEWISE SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISHING TO 4 FEET OR LESS BY
LATER THIS EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 86 78 / 10 10 10 20
STT 90 78 88 79 / 10 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
307 PM AST SAT JUL 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED
ACROSS WESTERN AND WESTERN INTERIOR PR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW 90S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH EASTERLY
WINDS AT 18 KNOTS OR LESS.

SOME HAZINESS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT TO THE NORTH MAINTAINS AN
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT PATTERN. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A
DRIER WEATHER PATTERN WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON
ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO.

THE DEEP TUTT PATTERN WILL SUSTAIN AN INVERTED/INDUCED TROUGH IN
THE TRADES. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE USVI AND PR
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. THEREFORE...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO PREVAIL EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK WITH A FEW AM PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO FOLLOWED BY LIMITED PM CONVECTION
ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH DAY. IN FACT...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUED TO SUGGEST OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE
NEXT WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE IN SITE FOR THE
MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION....PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA ACROSS WESTERN PR TIL 12/20Z. WINDS FM
THE EAST 5 TO 20 KTS FM SFC UP TO 10 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS 18 KNOTS OR LESS...WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 88 78 88 / 0 0 20 20
STT 80 90 80 90 / 10 10 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
556 AM AST SUN JUL 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOWS NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE
TO PULL FURTHER NORTH AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AXIS OF A TUTT INDUCED LOW LEVEL
INVERTED TROUGH NOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS...AND WILL MOVE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD...THEN ENTER AND MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE AND
ASSOCIATED LIMITED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE REGION. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WIDESPREAD DRY SAHARAN
AIR LAYER WHICH EXTENDS INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY AND HAZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY...AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TUTT LOWS PULLS FURTHER
AWAY FROM THE REGION...AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT TO
MAINTAIN AND OVERALL CONVERGENT PATTERN. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLANDS...HOWEVER AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WITH SHOWER AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO MAINLY
DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS AND DAYTIME HEATING.

THE TUTT INDUCED INVERTED TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
IN THE PREVAILING EASTERLIES BUT SHOULD BRING ONLY LIMITED AMOUNTS
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE REGION. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL
SUGGESTS THAT THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. STILL EXPECT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
ADVECTION TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LOCAL AND DIURNALLY
INDUCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION TODAY AND MONDAY. THEREAFTER...MOSTLY
FAIR AND OVERALL DRY CONDITION WILL PREVAIL WITH STILL NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER FEATURE OR MAJOR RAINMAKER IN SIGHT. THIS WEATHER PATTERN
IS TO PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL LIGHT
PASSING EARLY MORNING TRADE WIND SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY LIMITED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT ACROSS WEST AND WEST INTERIOR PR
WHERE SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT TJMZ AFTER 17/17Z.
WIND FROM SFC-FL050 IS FROM THE EAST AT 10 KNOTS BECOMING N-NW AT
5-10 KNOTS TO FL150.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY
THOUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 5 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS
WILL BE AT 17 KNOTS OR LESS. THE EASTERLY TRADE WILL INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS
THE ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DIP TO THE LOW 50S
TODAY MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS PARTICULARLY
IN AND AROUND CAMP SANTIAGO/SALINAS AND SANTA ISABEL IN PUERTO
RICO... VIEQUES AND THE ISLAND OF SAINT CROIX. EXCEPT FOR LOCAL
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS...THE 20 FOOT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS
THAN 15 MPH WITH ONLY OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS. FIRE AND EMERGENCY
OFFICIALS SHOULD HOWEVER BE AWARE THAT WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO BECOME MORE AND MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE QUICK IGNITION AND SPREAD
OF WILDFIRES...AS THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH VERY LITTLE
IF ANY CHANCES OF WETTING RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED TO CONTINUE TO DISPOSE
OF ALL FLAMMABLE MATERIALS IN THEIR PROPER RECEPTACLES AND REPORT
ANY SMOKE OR FIRE SIGHTINGS TO THE LOCAL FIRE DEPARTMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 74 86 76 / 0 20 20 20
STT 88 78 89 79 / 10 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
236 PM AST SUN JUL 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL REMAIN DOMINANT WX FEATURE THROUGH MIDWEEK...
WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD FROM THE EAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS NOTED
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS
OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN...WESTERN INTERIOR AND
SOUTHWEST PR AS WELL AS SOUTH OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW 90S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH EASTERLY WINDS AT AROUND 15 KNOTS.

TUTT PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN AN INVERTED/INDUCED TROUGH
IN THE TRADES. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH BEST MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE REMAINING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO RESULT IN A FEW EARLY MORNING PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY. THERE IS A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE AND
ASSOCIATED LIMITED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE REGION.

AS TUTT NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK..
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA. THIS EVOLVING PATTERN...
COMBINED WITH NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL RESULT IN ONLY OCCASIONAL EARLY MORNING
TRADE WIND SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS
WESTERN PR EACH DAY NEXT WORKWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
FOR THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD. SHRA/ISOLD TSRA STILL POSSIBLE
AT TJMZ AND TJPS TIL 13/21Z. WIND FROM THE EAST AT 10-15 KTS FROM
SFC UP TO 5 KFT BECOMING N-NW AT 5-10 KTS UP TO 15 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SEAS OF UP TO
5 FEET AND WINDS 17 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 88 79 88 / 20 20 10 20
STT 79 90 79 90 / 20 20 20 20