Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
524 AM AST MON JUL 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...WILL
REMAINS AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE WILL PASS MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY.
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD FROM THE EAST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO FROM TIME TO TIME. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE
AREA REMAINS UNDER A GENERALLY DRY AND HAZY WEATHER PATTERN. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING DEPICTED AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH
TRAILING SHOWERS FROM THE EAST. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD TODAY...INDUCING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.

TUTT LOWS NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL WEAKEN DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS UNTIL MID WEEK. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN TODAY AND TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED LIMITED
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA BY MID WEEK. IN GENERAL...EXPECT THE CONTINUATION OF EARLY
MORNING TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
FOLLOWED BY SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR
PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES XCPT ISOLD PASSING -SHRA/SHRA
MAINLY OFFSHORE OF LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNITE/EARLY MORNING W/MOSTLY SCT
LLVL CLD LYRS BTW FL020-FL080...FEW TCU MAINLY N OF PR AND NRN USVI
DURG EARLY AM...AND SCT-BKN HI LVL CLD BTW FL200-FL250 EN ROUTE BTW
LOCAL ISLANDS. SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA XPTD OVR W-NW PR DURG AFTN BTW
14/18/14/22Z. WIND BLO FL150 E 5-15 KT...BCMG FM W AND INCR W/HT ABV
FL200.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AND NOW WINDS OF
16 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED WITH SEAS UP TO 4 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 87 78 / 20 10 20 20
STT 89 78 89 79 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
310 PM AST MON JUL 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW NORTH OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST
WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL
WAVE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS EXPECTED TO ENTER AND MOVE
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS TUESDAY AND EARLY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS NOTED
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS
OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHWEST PR AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN
METRO AREA. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW 90S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT AROUND 15 KNOTS.

TUTT LOW TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST AS ANOTHER LOW
FORMS JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. THE LATTER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WX FEATURE WEDNESDAY THRU AT LEAST SATURDAY. TROPICAL
WAVE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS EXPECTED TO ENTER AND MOVE
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS TUESDAY AND EARLY ON WEDNESDAY.
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A BROAD LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
AREA BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ADVECTION LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER WEST AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA...
A RIDGE PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK.

THIS EVOLVING PATTERN COMBINED WITH NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER (TIL FRIDAY/SATURDAY) WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS FOLLOWED BY SOME AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS WEST AND NORTHWEST PR EACH DAY THIS WORKWEEK.
BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED OVER MOST
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING...EXCEPT FOR ISOLD SHRS/TSTMS INVOF
TJSJ...TJBQ AND TJMZ...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON TERMINALS
OPERATIONS EXPECTED. LOW LVL WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY DOMINATED BY
AFT/EVENING SEA BREEZES BUT BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLD SHWRS SHOULD BE EXPECTED OVER ALL
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EAST SOUTHEAST
TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. SEAS BELOW 5 FEET OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 79 90 / 20 20 20 20
STT 79 89 79 85 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
514 AM AST TUE JUL 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW NORTH OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO LIFT FURTHER
NORTHWARD WHILE FILLING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ANOTHER TUTT LOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF
THE REGION BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD PASSING MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTED THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO FROM TIME TO TIME. HOWEVER...NOT SIGNIFICANT
OR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
REGION.

TUTT LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO LIFT FURTHER
NORTHWARD WHILE FILLING TODAY AND TOMORROW. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY MID WEEK...BECOMING AS
THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE WEDNESDAY THRU AT LEAST SATURDAY.

ANOTHER TUTT LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE WESTWARD
TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING DEPICTED AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE JUST ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD TODAY...INDUCING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE REST
OF THE MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS
WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD PASS WELL SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO.

MOISTURE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS EXPECTED TO FLUCTUATE A BIT AS
PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BUT EVEN IN ITS DRIER
MOMENTS WE SHOULD OBSERVE SHOWER ACTIVITY. IN THE LONG TERM...IT
LOOKS LIKE A TROPICAL WAVE MAY AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FOR THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE THAT WOULD PUT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES ON SATURDAY IF THE GFS
MODEL WERE TO VERIFY. THIS WAVE IN COMBINATION WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE TO THE WEST NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
CAN BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED OVER MOST
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING...EXCEPT FOR ISOLD SHRS/TSTMS INVOF
TJSJ...TJBQ AND TJMZ...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON TERMINALS
OPERATIONS EXPECTED. LOW LVL WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY DOMINATED BY
AFT/EVENING SEA BREEZES BUT BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLD SHWRS SHOULD BE EXPECTED OVER ALL
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EAST SOUTHEAST
TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. SEAS BELOW 5 FEET OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 90 78 / 20 20 20 20
STT 88 78 90 79 / 30 30 30 30

[HurricaneFan]

So the Tropical Wave that is expected to reach the NE Caribbean this weekend is at 36W,8N now?It looks like it is flaring up quite a bit.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
257 PM AST TUE JUL 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING HOURS AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE
DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING SIGNS OF SHOWERS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION HAVE HELP INCREASE THE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. LMM AIRPORT
REPORTED A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 92 F AT 1:58 PM.

ANOTHER WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN
WATERS ON SATURDAY THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF RAIN FOR THE
INCOMING WEEKEND. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH OUR LOCAL
REGION MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH NEXT 24 HRS. ISOLD TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER WRN PUERTO RICO
AND MOVE CLOSE TO BOTH TJMZ AND TJBQ...INDICATED A TEMPO GROUP TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WL KEEP VCSH FOR TIST...TISX AND TJSJ TO ACCOUNT
FOR LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING. SFC WNDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY E TO
SE 5 TO 10 KTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS AFTER 14Z
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EAST SOUTHEAST
TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. SEAS BELOW 5 FEET OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 90 78 88 / 20 20 20 20
STT 78 90 79 89 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
344 AM AST WED JUL 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES AS A LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES FOR CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE
UPPER JET STAYS WEAK. CONVECTIVE FORCING WILL BE DRIVEN DIURNALLY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZES CONTROL DEVELOPMENT. NEXT
TROPICAL WAVE OF NOTE IS CURRENTLY ABOUT 42W AND MODELS PASS IT
OVER PR/USVI ON SAT WITH 1000-700 MB THETA-E LEVELS ABOUT 339K...
NO HIGHER THAN THEY ARE TODAY. HOWEVER...THAT DOES APPEAR TO BE
THE BEST CHANCE IN THE NEXT WEEK FOR SUBSTANTIAL AND WIDESPREAD
RAIN. THE ENTRANCE REGION AND DIVERGENT FLOW OF A 15-25 KNOT UPPER
JET MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION THAT DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES XCPT ISOLD PASSING -SHRA/SHRA
MAINLY ACROSS LOCAL WATERS AND EASTERN HALF OF PR AND USVI. SCT
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA XPTD OVR W-NW PR DURG AFTN BTW 16/18Z-16/22Z. SFC
WNDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY E TO SE 5 TO 15 KTS FM SFC UP TO 5 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HIGHER THAN 6 FT WILL STAY SOUTH IN THE CENTRAL/
WESTERN CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...ALSO OCCASIONALLY
GOING INTO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON LONG FETCH EASTERLIES. WINDS
LOCALLY TO REMAIN 20 KT OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 90 77 / 20 20 20 30
STT 89 79 89 79 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
249 PM AST WED JUL 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SHOWERS AFFECTED PORTIONS OF EAST PUERTO RICO
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BUT THE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED VERY LIMITED
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WESTERN INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WAS THE MAIN FACTOR FOR THIS LIMITED WEATHER AFTERNOON.

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OUR LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A TUTT RETROGRESS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
OF OUR LOCAL FORECAST AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP ON THE
AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THIS WEAK WAVE WILL HELP INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND FUEL AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH 17/18Z. ISOLD SHWRS MAY PASS NEAR THE EASTERN
TERMINALS BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT EXPECTED. A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTIES AS TO WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVR WEST/NW
PR THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE MODELS INDICATE PRECIP OVER THAT
AREA...BUT HIGHER RESOLUTION MESO-SCALE MODELS KEEP NW PR DRY.
HOWEVER...WL STILL KEEP A TEMPO GROUP FOR -TSRA FOR BOTH TJBQ AND
TJMZ FROM 18Z TO ABOUT 20Z...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. SFC WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY DOMINATED BY LAND BREEZES
OVERNIGHT BUT WILL RETURN TO MAINLY ESE 10-15 KTS BY 17/14Z.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 3 TO 5 FEET FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL HELP
INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND INCREASE THE LOCAL WINDS.
SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AS
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 77 90 / 20 20 30 40
STT 79 89 79 89 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
327 AM AST THU JUL 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...TOO MUCH CAP AND TOO MUCH CLOUDINESS LIMITED
CONVECTION ON WED AFTERNOON. TODAY WE WILL HAVE LESS OF BOTH
EXCEPT MOISTURE WILL BE A LITTLE SHALLOWER...LIMITING POTENTIAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND AREAL COVERAGE.

BEST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS TO BE
SAT WHICH APPEARS SLIGHTLY MORE LIKELY IN THE 00Z GFS. THE
TROPICAL WAVE AXIS CURRENTLY NEAR 15N/54W EXTENDING WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST HAS ITS HIGHEST ASSOCIATED MOISTURE HANGING BACK AT 50W.
THE WAVE WILL PASS OVER PR/USVI ON FRI NIGHT WITH THE MOISTURE
FOLLOWING ON SAT. ECMWF AND UKMET KEEP THE WAVE SLIGHTLY STRONGER
THAN THE GFS. WHILE IT PASSES THE 00Z GFS SHOWS 1000-700 MB
THETA-E VALUES 1C HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHTS RUN AND THE 250 MB
DOWNSTREAM JET ABOUT 10 KT STRONGER...BOTH INDICATIVE OF MORE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THOUGH STILL NOT CAUSE FOR MUCH OF A FLOODING
THREAT IN THE CURRENT DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR THE
REST OF THE FCST PERIOD...WITH SOME VCSH MAINLY OVER
TJSJ...TJPS...TIST AND TISX. SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA XPTD OVR W-NW PR
DURG AFTN BTW 17/18Z-17/22Z. SFC WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT BECOMING MAINLY ESE 10-15 KTS BY 17/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...STILL LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHEST
WINDS AND WAVES CONTINUE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL/WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND
ON ATLANTIC SIDE OF WINDWARD ISLANDS. LOCAL TRADES TO BE MODERATE
TO FRESH AND SEAS MOSTLY AT 3-5 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 78 90 78 / 20 30 40 20
STT 89 78 89 79 / 30 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
602 AM AST FRI JUL 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW NORTHEAST OF THE REGION IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY
WEST SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TODAY AND
TONIGHT. ANOTHER TUTT LOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA TODAY
AND SUNDAY. STRONG SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE REGION IS EXPECTED
TO MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR THIS MORNING DEPICTED SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...EASTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ACROSS THE
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST
NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE
TRADES...WILL MAINTAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED
PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES...CULEBRA
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING
HOURS. THIS ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT LOWS...TO
PRODUCE A NEW ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 60
WEST THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS
LATE TONIGHT...INCREASING THE CLOUD AND SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE
EASTERN WATERS...USVI AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THIS TROPICAL WAVE IN COMBINATION WITH THE
UPPER LOW WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO ON SUNDAY. AFTER
THIS WAVE DRY CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN DOMINATE THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH BRIEF SHRA IN
AND AROUND TJSJ...TJPS...TIST AND TISX. SHRA AND TSRA COULD BE
EXPECTED NEAR TJBQ/TJMZ AND POSSIBLE TJSJ AFT 18/17Z. ESE WINDS
BETWEEN 5 TO 20 KTS FROM SFC TO AROUND 5 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LOCAL
WATERS AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION. SEAS
WILL BE BETWEEN 3 TO 6 FEET. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 89 78 / 40 50 50 30
STT 89 78 89 79 / 40 50 50 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
310 PM AST FRI JUL 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL HELP
MAINTAIN MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A TUTT LOW JUST NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY WEST SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. A WEAKLY INDUCED LOW LEVEL
TROUGH WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE REST OF THE EVENING.
MEANWHILE...A TROPICAL WAVE NOW CROSSING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL
CONTINUE WESTWARD AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. FRAGMENTS OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AHEAD OF AND TRAILING THIS WAVE WILL STREAM ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
WATERS AND AFFECT THE ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
TO ALLOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER TROUGH AIDED IN ENHANCING SOME OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS THE WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. EXPECT MOST OF
THE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH OVER LAND DURING
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

EXPECT PASSING SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS AND PARTS OF
THE EAST COASTAL SECTION OF THE ISLANDS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
A PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TRAILING THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL
TRANSPORT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TO ONCE
AGAIN ALLOW FOR SHOWERS ENHANCEMENT AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS
PARTS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LESSER MOISTURE ADVECTION IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY AS SUGGESTED BY
THE LATEST MODEL GFS MODEL GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...EXPECT LOCAL AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS TO BE ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. SO FAR MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE SUNDAY THRU MONDAY...AS THE DRY SAHARAN AIR
LAYER AND A ROUND OF SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST PARTICULATES TRAILING
THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS
FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON TUESDAY...THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE...FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF EARLY
MORNING PASSING SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY LOCAL TERRAIN AND DIURNALLY
INDUCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES. VCSH ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES.
AFTERNOON TSRA ACROSS NW-PR WILL LIKELY CAUSE TEMPO MVFR CONDS
AT TJBQ AND TJMZ. INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHRA WILL ALSO CAUSE MTN
OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOCAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT FAIR WX WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS FROM THE E-SE AT AROUND
15KTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING
MORE EASTERLY AND DECREASE IN SPEED FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO LOCALLY
FRESH TRADE WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS MAINLY OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS WILL BE 5 FEET OR LESS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS .
PLEASE REFER TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN FOR THE LATEST AND UP TO DATE INFO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 88 78 88 / 50 50 30 30
STT 78 89 78 90 / 50 50 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
330 AM AST SAT JUL 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY SETTING UP TODAY. SO FAR THE
CLOUDS ARE FAIRLY LIMITED AND GFS SUGGESTS THOSE MID/HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUDS OVER EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL NOT SPREAD NORTHWARD VERY
MUCH...ALLOWING FOR STRONG SUNSHINE EARLY AND DESTABILIZING THE
LOWER LEVELS. CURRENT RADAR FROM CAYEY AND GUADELOUPE INDICATE
CONVECTION IS NOT YET DEEP ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT SOME
180 NM SOUTH OF PR. THOSE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE AREA
OF STRONGEST 1000-700 MB THETA-E ADVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
PASS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS TOWARD CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE AXIS WILL PASS PR/USVI THIS MORNING WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER ONLY RISING ANOTHER TENTH OF AN INCH LATER
TODAY. THOSE VALUES WILL ONLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH ABOVE SEASONAL
LEVELS AND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXPECTED. HOWEVER
THE UPPER JET IS POISED TO HELP GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDER WITH
250 MB DIVERGENCE INCREASING (ACCORDING TO GFS) FROM EASTERN PR TO
JUST NORTH OF LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS DIVERGENCE PERSISTS TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT...POSSIBLY ON SUNDAY AS WELL. SO HAVE INCREASED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER TODAY BUT DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN
FLOODING TO BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE.

WILL CONTINUE KEEPING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE. TJSJ
HAS SEEN MAX TEMPERATURES AT 90 OR MORE 30 DAYS STRAIGHT WHILE
MAV/MET/MEX HAVE STUBBORNLY KEEP CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS
ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH BRIEF SHRA IN
AND AROUND TJSJ...TJPS...TIST AND TISX. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER TNCM AND TKPK IN PASSING SHOWERS. LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ESE BETWEEN 5 TO 20 KTS FROM SFC TO
AROUND 10 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO LOCALLY
FRESH TRADE WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS MAINLY OVER COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
CONTINUE 5 FEET OR LESS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH AT LEAST
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 90 78 / 60 40 40 30
STT 87 78 90 80 / 50 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
314 PM AST SAT JUL 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS NOW SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO
AND WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY. IN THE
MEANTIME A PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FILTER IN
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...ACCOMPANYING THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WHICH TRAILS THE WAVE.
A TUTT LOW NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...AND ASSOCIATED ELONGATED TROUGH
JUST WEST OF THE REGION...WILL SLOWLY LIFT FURTHER WEST AS A RIDGE
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ALOFT. IN THE MEANTIME A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE NOW
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS SO FAR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD...
THEN ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY MONDAY AND MOVE MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TRAILING THE TROPICAL WAVE TO COMBINE
WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND DAYTIME HEATING...TO ALLOW FOR FORMATION OF
PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS TODAY. SOME OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY BROUGHT
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT SO FAR THE ACTIVITY
WAS OF SHORT DURATION AND STREAMED QUICKLY ACROSS THE ISLANDS LEAVING
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION.

EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUDINESS TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AND
DIMINISH OVER LAND DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...LEAVING PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS WILL
MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE LOCAL WATER AND AFFECT PARTS OF THE EAST
COASTAL SECTIONS ONCE AGAIN. ON SUNDAY...SUFFICIENT RESIDUAL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR
AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. MOSTLY SUNNY AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
EXPECTED OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS NW-PR EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BY 19/22Z. ISOLD/SCT PASSING SHRA EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE E-SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS AT ABOUT 15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS...DECREASING TO
5-10 KNOTS AFTER 19/23Z AND OVERNIGHT...INCREASING ONCE AGAIN AFTER
20/13Z FROM THE EAST TO E-SE.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS MAINLY BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET WITH WINDS UP TO 19
KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE WFO SAN JUAN FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 78 89 / 40 40 30 30
STT 79 90 80 90 / 30 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
354 AM AST SUN JUL 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...TUTT LOW AND TROUGH EXTENDING TOWARDS HISPANIOLA
THAT HELPED SHOWERS DEVELOP ON SAT IS LOSING ITS INFLUENCE FOR
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. COMBINED WITH WEAK DRY AIR ADVECTION TODAY
FEWER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. TUE-THU LOOK
ESPECIALLY DRY AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL BE NEEDED TO
GENERATE EVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER.

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A TROPICAL WAVE WITH A LOW STILL IN THE
ITCZ ABOUT 7N/36W. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE FOR SEVERAL DAYS EXPECTED
IT TO WEAKEN GREATLY AS IT LEAVES THE ITCZ AND MOVE WEST. GFS
SHOWS IT HIGHLY SHEARED WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE STRUNG OUT SOME
1000 NM TOWARDS THE NE AS THE WAVE PASSES PR/USVI ON FRI. IT
LIKELY REPRESENTS OUR BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BUT SO
FAR IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS WET AS THE ONE WE HAD YESTERDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS
ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH BRIEF SHRA
IN AND AROUND TJSJ...TIST AND TISX. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY ESE BETWEEN 5 TO 20 KTS FROM SFC TO AROUND 7K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS REMAIN MAINLY UP TO 5 FT WITH WIND UP TO 19 KT.
HIGH PRESSURE ENTRENCHED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS SHOWING NO
SIGNS OF CHANGING THE TRADE WIND PATTERN FOR LESSER ANTILLES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 90 78 / 40 30 30 10
STT 90 79 90 79 / 30 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 201853
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
253 PM AST SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH HAS SHIFTED FURTHER WEST
ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT NUDGES IN
ACROSS THE REGION CARIBBEAN FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THIS WILL
HELP TO PROVIDE OVERALL SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND SUPPRESS ANY WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER CONTINUED TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY AND SO FAR THIS HAS ALSO HELPED
IN LIMITING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TO MAINLY PARTS OF THE WEST INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A WEAK EASTERLY PERTURBATION WILL CONTINUE
TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. NO
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH
WILL MOVE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION...AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF ONCE AGAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NAAPS AEROSOL PRODUCTS
BOTH SUGGEST DRIER AIR ADVECTION AND HAZY CONDITIONS...AS SAHARAN
AIR LAYER WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS OVERHEAD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ACCOMPANYING SUSPENDED
DUST PARTICULATES IS FORECAST TO SPREAD FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. LIMITED DAYTIME CONVECTION
IS THEREFORE EXPECTED WITH ONLY LOCAL SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND
DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MOST OF THE
DAYTIME CONVECTION IF ANY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE WEST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH LIMITED
OF NO SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLANDS
INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WHERE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER SHRA/TSRA ACROSS NW PR AFFECTING
TJMZ AND TJBQ UNTIL 21/23Z MAY CAUSE TEMPO MVFR CONDS. SAHARAN DUST
IS PRESENT...CAUSING HAZY SKIES BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN
P6SM. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST TO E-SE AT ABOUT 15 KTS WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS UNTIL 20/23Z...DECREASING THEREAFTER TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS FROM THE EAST.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE
WINDS UP TO 18 KNOTS. SEAS CONTINUE 5 FEET OR LESS. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE THROUGH AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 88 78 90 / 30 30 10 10
STT 79 90 79 90 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
331 AM AST MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...GENERALLY DRY AIR WILL PASS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THROUGH EARLY THU THOUGH NOT WITHOUT THE USUAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN INTERIOR PR.
GUIDANCE DAILY MAX TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON LOW SIDE SO BOOSTED
THOSE 1-2 DEG F EACH DAY.

TROPICAL WAVE WITH A LOW CENTERED 11N/38W CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN
ITCZ AND MOVING W 10 KT. BOTH 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ACCELERATE IT
WITHIN 48-72 HOURS TO ABOUT 17 KT TOWARDS WNW SO THAT IT WOULD
PASS OVER LOCAL AREA VERY LATE ON THU. GFS ALSO KEEPS IT A
RELATIVELY STRONG WAVE AND EVEN HAS SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
OVER ITS TOP. WHILE DEVELOPMENT INTO A STORM IS NOT EXPECTED THE
POTENTIAL CONVERGENT/DIVERGENT COUPLET AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
WELL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AS THE GFS INDICATES WARRANTS CAREFUL
MONITORING FOR POSSIBLE HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS. 00Z GFS IS A
SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE FROM ITS EARLIER RUNS. THIS PAST SAT IT WAS
EXPECTING THE WAVE TO PASS BY ON THIS COMING SAT AND HIGHLY
SHEARED. EVEN THE 12Z AND 18Z RUNS FROM YESTERDAY INDICATED A FRI
ARRIVAL...AND WITH NOT NEARLY THIS MUCH PRECIPITABLE WATER OR
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS
TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES SINCE THE GFS HAS NOT HANDLED IT
WELL SO FAR. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN
CHANCE CATEGORY PARTLY BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH TIMING
AND THE QUESTIONABLE STRENGTH.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS WITH
BRIEF SHRA IN AND AROUND JSJ/IST AND NCM THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN PR AFTER 21/17Z...AND MAY
AFFECT TJMZ AND TJBQ...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. SAHARAN DUST IS PRESENT...CAUSING HAZY SKIES
BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN P6SM. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST TO
E-SE AT ABOUT 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD BE CAUTIOUS DUE TO LOCALLY FRESH
TRADE WINDS UP TO 19 KNOTS THROUGH AT LEAST TUE...WITH SEAS
CONTINUING AT 5 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND LIMITED NUMBER OF
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PR SLOPES NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL
REQUIRE MONITORING FOR POSSIBLE STATEMENTS. SO FAR...DRIEST DAY
APPEARS TO BE WED WHILE THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS
THAT DAY TOO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 90 79 / 20 10 10 20
STT 90 79 90 80 / 20 10 10 30

[cycloneye]

Hey Eastern Caribbean folks. We have Invest 92L up in the Central Tropical Atlantic East of the Lesser Antilles. Let's watch the progress of it to see how it will affect the islands. Let's hope this brings plenty of rain for some of the islands that need it badly. For more information about this invest go to the Invest 92L - Discussion thread at Active Storms/invests forum.

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1110 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook issued to update discussion of system in the
central tropical Atlantic.

1. Updated: Shower activity associated with a small area of low
pressure located about midway between the Cape Verde Islands and the
Lesser Antilles has increased a little during the past few hours.
Although this activity remains limited, it continues to show signs
of organization. Satellite data also indicate that a closed
circulation could be forming and that the system is producing a
small area of winds near tropical storm force. A tropical depression
could develop during the next couple of days while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. After that time
however, environmental conditions are expected to become less
conducive for development. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Brennan/Roberts

[cycloneye]

Up to 70%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with a small area of low pressure located
about 1250 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has continued to
increase and show signs of organization during the past few hours.
Satellite data indicate that the circulation has become better
defined and the system is producing a small area of winds near
tropical storm force. Only a small increase in organization of the
shower activity would result in the formation of a tropical
depression as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15
to 20 mph during the next day or two. After that time, however,
environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for
development or strengthening. Interests in the Lesser Antilles
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
309 PM AST MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK...CAUSING MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES
ACROSS TE AREA. SAHARAN DUST TO CONTINUE TODAY...THEN DIMINISH ON
TUESDAY BUT THEN INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. STRONG TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY TO SATURDAY...BRINGING MOISTURE AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
RELATIVELY NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL WITH SOME SAHARAN DUST MIXED IN
THE REST OF TODAY AND THEN FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS
A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CURRENTLY GIVES IT A
70 PERCENT CHANCE OF IT DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...THE GENERAL ENVIRONMENT IN THE
CARIBBEAN IS QUITE HOSTILE FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO SURVIVE WITH
THE COMBINATION OF THE DRY AIR AND UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR...BUT
AT LEAST THERE IS A CHANCE OF A GOOD INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE WAVE PASSES OVER THE LOCAL AREA.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TJMZ IN THE AFTERNOON AS SHRA/TSRA AFFECTS
THE SURROUNDING AREA POSSIBLY CAUSING TEMPO MVFR CONDS. WINDS WILL
BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT AROUND 15KTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UNTIL 21/23Z. THEREAFTER WINDS WILL DECREASE
TO ABOUT 10 KTS OR LESS WITH PASSING ISOLD LIGHT SHRA OVER THE
AREA. SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN PR
AFTER 22/17Z WHICH MAY AFFECT TJMZ AND TJBQ.


&&

.MARINE...LATEST DATA FROM SURROUNDING BUOYS AND LOCAL
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...WITH SEAS OF BETWEEN 3-5
FEET. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION
MAINLY DUE TO WINDS UP TO 19 KNOTS OR SO.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 90 79 / 10 10 10 20
STT 90 79 90 80 / 20 10 10 30

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014
500 PM AST MON JUL 21 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 43.8W
ABOUT 1205 MI...1935 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW
BY THURSDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.89 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN