STORM2K

Patrick99 wrote:Maybe I am exaggerating, but I swear that outside of named storms like Irene and Katrina, as well as a couple other depressions and TS's over the years, we haven't had a real big "rain event" since the 1980s. Especially lately, I feel like forecasts of widespread heavy rain with systems like this tend to come up bust.

I do remember as a kid that seemingly every year, at least once, we'd get this day or 2 of crazy heavy rain, with yards turning into puddles, trash piles out front becoming mini-lakes and flooding into the streets. It was usually sometime in between May-September, but I swear I remember it happening around April and Easter a couple times. I remember these well, because on these days, it rained *so hard* that the earthworms would come out in droves and be all over the sidewalks. I would collect some and use them to go fishing when the rain stopped. There'd be way more out on the sidewalks than I could ever use. I haven't seen that in decades. It either doesn't rain like that here anymore, or there aren't as many earthworms under foot.

boca wrote:I really think the Thurs/Friday forecast will bust and if we are lucky the rain chance will be about 20%. The reason I feel this way is the trough is moving East out of the area rather quickly and not going stationary already passing just about East of the Bahamas.

boca wrote:I really think the Thurs/Friday forecast will bust and if we are lucky the rain chance will be about 20%. The reason I feel this way is the trough is moving East out of the area rather quickly and not going stationary already passing just about East of the Bahamas.

gatorcane wrote:Some good rains here in SE Florida to my surprise

TheStormExpert wrote:

gatorcane wrote:Some good rains here in SE Florida to my surprise

Hey gatorcane, would you mind sending some of that liquid water our way up here in NE Palm Beach County?

All we’ve been getting is quick moving brief periods of light drizzle.

gatorcane wrote:I think the Sumer rainy season has begun across South Florida as dewpoints have been above 70F since Thursday and rain chances will steadily go up over the next few days. We saw some good convection over SE Palm Beach County and Broward yesterday with rumbling thunder and lots of lightning.

Tonight-Monday...Sea breeze collision is still expected to initiate
a few showers and storms across the interior toward sunset, that
will be able to shift eastward and potentially back to the coast and
offshore into this evening. It will then remain dry overnight, with
lows remaining mild in the upper 60s to low 70s. Monday looks to be
a more active day weather-wise, with an approaching mid level trough
enhancing shower and thunderstorm development into the afternoon.
Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast to either push
into or develop across east central Florida, shifting E/NE and
offshore through late day, and have increased rain chances to 50-60
percent.

Strong to isolated severe storms will be possible, especially any
storms that can interact with the east coast sea breeze, which
should be able to form and stall south of the Cape. The Storm
Prediction Center has updated their Day 2 outlook and put much of
the Florida peninsula in a Marginal Risk for severe weather. Main
threats will be frequent lightning, strong to localized damaging
wind gusts and small to quarter size hail with any stronger
convection. Enough sunshine should occur ahead of these storms for
highs to get into the upper 80s to low 90s Monday afternoon.

Monday night-Wednesday (modified)...Model guidance has trended
faster, while coming into much better agreement with respect to the
overall early week pattern across Florida. A compact H50 low
upstream will drop SE into the northern GOMEX through Mon night,
south of a large cutoff over the upper midwest. The northern low
will drop nearly due south in a developing "Rex" blocking pattern
over the central-eastern CONUS. As it does, it will propel the
southern system eastward across Florida Mon night-early Tue, moving
well offshore by mid day. This could be accompanied by a band of
fast-moving showers/TS late Mon night/early Tue, with additional
diurnal convection developing into Tue afternoon. Some stronger
storms still look possible during this period, although the late
night/early morning storms could somewhat impede the coverage and
intensity of diurnal development. SW flow will continue into Wed,
albeit not as strong as Tue. Still expect scattered to locally
numerous (mainly south) storms once again.

Patrick99 wrote:That's the Lushine theory. There have been some years where it bears fruit......maybe it's because dry Mays often correlate to Bermuda highs in August/September?

It's true that the SFL rainy season tends to start in mid-May, but there are many years when we just don't seem to have the juice until June. And then, I forget which year it was, but one, it felt like the entire Miami rainy season was stunted.

gatorcane wrote:

Patrick99 wrote:That's the Lushine theory. There have been some years where it bears fruit......maybe it's because dry Mays often correlate to Bermuda highs in August/September?

It's true that the SFL rainy season tends to start in mid-May, but there are many years when we just don't seem to have the juice until June. And then, I forget which year it was, but one, it felt like the entire Miami rainy season was stunted.

Looks like May will go down with a good amount of troughiness and maybe on the wet side based on what we have seen and global model guidance. No evidence of a strong Bermuda High so far, might mean plentiful rain for SE and the east coast of Florida this summer. Feeling is we don’t see a threat from the east this year. Last year Dorian did surprise but didn’t make it here in the end. Watch the Caribbean though especially later into September and October. I am surprised we haven’t seen a juggernaut down there late season in a while. With possible La Niña and warm SSTs, conditions should be rather conducive.

TheStormExpert wrote:

gatorcane wrote:

Patrick99 wrote:That's the Lushine theory. There have been some years where it bears fruit......maybe it's because dry Mays often correlate to Bermuda highs in August/September?

It's true that the SFL rainy season tends to start in mid-May, but there are many years when we just don't seem to have the juice until June. And then, I forget which year it was, but one, it felt like the entire Miami rainy season was stunted.

Looks like May will go down with a good amount of troughiness and maybe on the wet side based on what we have seen and global model guidance. No evidence of a strong Bermuda High so far, might mean plentiful rain for SE and the east coast of Florida this summer. Feeling is we don’t see a threat from the east this year. Last year Dorian did surprise but didn’t make it here in the end. Watch the Caribbean though especially later into September and October. I am surprised we haven’t seen a juggernaut down there late season in a while. With possible La Niña and warm SSTs, conditions should be rather conducive.

Yep the Bermuda High has been nonexistent for once this spring. Maybe the East Coast of Florida will actually see a decent rainy season this year which by the way most likely started today in my opinion.

Our biggest tropical threats will likely come from the SW not the SE especially if we get delayed development, just think 2005 only less active and throw in a storm somewhat similar to Hurricane Wilma in terms of track.

gatorcane wrote:Rainy season starting with a bang this year across SE Florida. Last May it did also. Huge storms rolling in from the Everglades heading ENE towards the metro areas and coast.