STORM2K

MJGarrison wrote:We’re these true summer afternoon thunderstorms today? I’m in Orlando and when I checked the radar at 10AM they were already chugging across the state.

HurricaneBelle wrote:

MJGarrison wrote:We’re these true summer afternoon thunderstorms today? I’m in Orlando and when I checked the radar at 10AM they were already chugging across the state.

Not really, there was an upper low and a surface trough moving through the state today.

gatorcane wrote:Rainy season in full swing here in South Florida. The humidity has returned as well. Saw a storm last night with quite a light show with lightning flashing every second literally. Rolls of thunder as well.

gatorcane wrote:

Patrick99 wrote:That's the Lushine theory. There have been some years where it bears fruit......maybe it's because dry Mays often correlate to Bermuda highs in August/September?

It's true that the SFL rainy season tends to start in mid-May, but there are many years when we just don't seem to have the juice until June. And then, I forget which year it was, but one, it felt like the entire Miami rainy season was stunted.

Looks like May will go down with a good amount of troughiness and maybe on the wet side based on what we have seen and global model guidance. No evidence of a strong Bermuda High so far, might mean plentiful rain for SE and the east coast of Florida this summer. Feeling is we don’t see a threat from the east this year. Last year Dorian did surprise but didn’t make it here in the end. Watch the Caribbean though especially later into September and October. I am surprised we haven’t seen a juggernaut down there late season in a while. With possible La Niña and warm SSTs, conditions should be rather conducive.

NDG wrote:Big time hail in the Orlando area yesterday, I have never seen the size of this hail before in this area, glad it didn't hit us here in sw Seminole County.

https://twitter.com/NAlvarezWFTV/status/1263767999384870912?s=20

SFLcane wrote:Last 2 runs of the Euro it’s been forecasting 15+ inches of rainfall across SFL through Memorial Day.

https://i.imgur.com/bPaO4c2.png

Monday-Tuesday...(modified previous) Global models approaching
agreement with a broad area of moisture lifting north across south
FL leading to a threat for heavy rainfall early in the week. Both
the GFS and ECMWF show deep moisture in the Gulf pushing into
Florida with PWATs forecast to reach well over 2.00" by Monday. The
ECMWF develops an inverted surface trough along the east-central
Florida coast sometime late Monday into Tuesday, which eventually
develops into a weak area of low pressure. Both models do show deep
convection developing across the area each afternoon early in the
week. The GFS shows many pieces of vorticity streaming over the
peninsula, likely aiding in storm development. The latest run of the
GFS also picks up on high QPF, similar to the earlier ECM run,
however yields a slightly lower amount and takes the bullseye of
heavy rain farther north into central FL. Rain chances both Monday
and Tuesday have trended upward at 60-70% chance, with daily
rainfall amounts of 2-3" and localized higher amounts each day.

...South/Central Florida...
Though tropical moisture is expected to be in place across FL
during Day 2 (continuously replenished by a persistent low level
southeast flow with precipitable water values over 2.25 inches),
it is still unclear how this moisture might be focused with
respect to the threat of excessive rainfall. The latest GFE/NAM/EC
all show the convective activity and shortwaves advancing steadily
north with multiple round of precipitation moving into
south/central FL from the southwest. However, the CMC/UKMET are
painting a different picture, keeping the convection suppressed
with the mid-level energy not able to undercut the ridge in place.
High resolution models illustrate from Day 1 into Day 2 that
convection may become hung up which would in essence support the
UK/CMC but for the wrong reasons potentially. Given the
uncertainty that remains and the inability to iron out such
mesoscale features this far out, hedged between the models to at
least highlight periods of heavy rain that could result in
widespread 1.5-2.5+ inches of rain. With rain rates possible over
2 inches per hour and over already saturated soils, introduced a
Slight Risk across portions of southern FL.

...South Florida...
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the
beginning of the period, continuing throughout much of the day, as
the tropical wave moves northeastward through the eastern Gulf of
Mexico. Strong southeasterly surface winds beneath enhanced
low-level (i.e. 1 to 2 km) flow will support large, looping
low-level hodographs, primarily between 12Z and 18Z. Instability
will be limited, but any more persistent/deeper updrafts could
support damaging wind gusts and/or brief tornadoes.