Texas Fall 2017

[Yukon Cornelius]

Picked up another 1/4'' out of yesterday's storms. Areas to the south and west picked up a lot more and some areas even had some minor flooding. The wind was also a problem for some with a few downed tree limbs here and there when I went into Wichita Falls this morning. The street light on my parents corner also blew over in the wind.

[Portastorm]

Amazing what a day's change can do to the models ...

Both the GFS and Euro show cooler temps, especially the Euro, by late next week. And rain chances for many in Texas! Wouldn't that be a beautiful thing?!

[Tireman4]

Amazing what a day's change can do to the models ...

Both the GFS and Euro show cooler temps, especially the Euro, by late next week. And rain chances for many in Texas! Wouldn't that be a beautiful thing?!

Keep hope alive Porta...oh and both teams keep winning..

Cleveland 94 57
Houston 92 58

I just love baseboll!!

[dhweather]

DFW hit 98 today...knew it was too good to be true that summer ended early.

I really hate Texas weather. It just feels like summer never ends then we barely get a winter and then it repeats

Welcome to Texas!

[dhweather]

Amazing what a day's change can do to the models ...

Both the GFS and Euro show cooler temps, especially the Euro, by late next week. And rain chances for many in Texas! Wouldn't that be a beautiful thing?!

Why yes, it would be.

Then that little voice in my head reminds me about model guidance beyond 3-5 days........

[TheProfessor]

We could be approaching the 90 degrees mark here in Columbus the next couple of days, we have a dewpoint of 67 today so I'm in a similar boat as you guys. This pattern is absolutely disgusting.

[Tireman4]

We could be approaching the 90 degrees mark here in Columbus the next couple of days, we have a dewpoint of 67 today so I'm in a similar boat as you guys. This pattern is absolutely disgusting.

I know..relief is coming...hang on..hey, how is school?

[TheProfessor]

We could be approaching the 90 degrees mark here in Columbus the next couple of days, we have a dewpoint of 67 today so I'm in a similar boat as you guys. This pattern is absolutely disgusting.

I know..relief is coming...hang on..hey, how is school?

Mostly fine, I've been having some trouble with Differential Equations, but my Atmospheric classes are going well.

[Tireman4]

We could be approaching the 90 degrees mark here in Columbus the next couple of days, we have a dewpoint of 67 today so I'm in a similar boat as you guys. This pattern is absolutely disgusting.

I know..relief is coming...hang on..hey, how is school?

Mostly fine, I've been having some trouble with Differential Equations, but my Atmospheric classes are going well.

Good make us proud sir. Get that BS in Meteorology!!

[Brent]

really good agreement on a huge front next week mid-week

God please verify. I am so done with the heat. Summer is over

I swear Irma spread heat in the entire east/plains, it wasn't that bad before that.

[Tireman4]

You know, almost every year we are holding on by our finger nails for a front to come...for Fall to come...sigh..

[weatherdude1108]

Please lord!


897
FXUS64 KEWX 201933
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
233 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
Upper air analysis this morning showed zonal flow across the southern
US. At the surface, high pressure was centered over the Gulf and
winds across our CWA were from the south to southwest. An upper level
trough will dig down along the west coast during this period turning
the upper flow over Texas to the southwest. The low level flow will
remain southerly. An upper level short wave trough will move through
the pattern and may provide enough lift to produce isolated showers
and thunderstorms over the west tonight and spread to the east
Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
The upper pattern will remain fairly stationary through the end of
the week with the trough digging mainly south while rotating slowly
through the southwest. Sunday an upper trough will move in from the
Gulf bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms to the eastern
part of our CWA. The upper pattern will become more progressive
Monday with the trough moving across the Rockies and into the Central
Plains. The tail end of this trough will hang back over the southwest
and eventually close off into a low over Arizona by Tuesday night.
This will mean an extended period with chances for rain Monday
through Wednesday.

[Brent]

FWD AFD


Big changes are on the horizon next week, however, as the
aformentioned troughing to our west finally begins to migrate
north and eastward, which should help send a cold front towards
the Red River sometime during the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe.
Recent runs of the GFS and CMC remain the most aggressive with
this front and attendant precipitation chances, delivering fairly
widespread showers/storms to the area by Monday night/Tuesday
morning. The associated ensemble guidance (GEFS/GEPS) on the other
hand, support a slightly slower solution, more in line with the
recent ECMWF. Given the degree of troughing present to our west
and the potential for shortwave energy to take a bit more time
digging into the base of the trough axis, this forecast will side
a bit more with the slower ECMWF, with the greatest precipitation
chances occurring on Tuesday and Wednesday. Given improving model
support, we have bumped PoPs up as well during this time frame.
The best kinematics look to lag the front for the most part, which
should limit the severe weather potential. Copious moisture,
however, spells a potential for moderate to heavy rainfall with
this incoming front as several waves of upper-level ascent will
zip across the region during this time frame.

[Tejas89]

Good chances for rain at the end of the 7-day for DFW. Perhaps that will open the door for fall to arrive soon.

[JDawg512]

I'll start doing my rain dance in preparation.

[TheProfessor]

I think I found the perfect mechanic to guarantee rain. First check to see if there's any chance of rain in the next couple of days. Then when that day comes, even if, the chances of rain are at their smallest, tell yourself to make sure you have an umbrella. Finally, Right before you leave your house "accidentally forget your umbrella". When you get home from work/school etc you will get rained on. I'm a perfect 4/4 with this method so far.

[Ntxw]

Signal is getting better to end this late summer push. Ensembles agree as well. EPAC has a secondary season peak (October) that correlates to our fall wetter months so hopefully activity there picks up to bring inland areas some rain.

DFW had a high of 99F today...next weekend just can't come soon enough.

[Ntxw]

As mentioned previously, the focus will be in the western half of the state. They will be well below normal and very wet. Hopefully this will move east in time.

[weatherdude1108]

Looks like the higher QPF is encroaching on the Austin metro area.

[Brent]

GFS/Euro look pretty promising so far... hope it holds up.

Also DFW goes from highs in the 90s to highs in the 70s on both models...