STORM2K

I'm in north Austin this week. What beautiful weather here. Almost makes up for the hideous looking traffic on 183.

Models still offering a glimpse of hope for snow this month.

Brent wrote:just looking at the models I think Dallas is more likely to hit 90 than have snow...

but maybe I'm wrong But after our luck this winter I ain't holding my breath

What will be the max temp this summer? 105? 110? Higher? That is more likely than snow at this point. However, I'll hold out hope until mid-April lol

bubba hotep wrote:

Brent wrote:just looking at the models I think Dallas is more likely to hit 90 than have snow...

but maybe I'm wrong But after our luck this winter I ain't holding my breath

What will be the max temp this summer? 105? 110? Higher? That is more likely than snow at this point. However, I'll hold out hope until mid-April lol

sorry I'm still bitter it didn't really snow here...

Well the next 7 days ish is 70s and 80s. Lows 50s and 60s with a tad cooler end of period. So at least for that stretch no snow likely. Still looking for some sig rain. That gets us to the end of March.

In other news the sun is running 12 days with no spots. Over half (54% of the days so far) in 2018 have been spotless. We are nearing the solar min like 2008-2010.

What does that all mean? Means rooting for a weak/moderate El Nino to start summer or fall. There is arguably no other better ENSO pairing. Golden ticket for snow. 1963-64, 2009-10 are such years

The best would be for El Nino to read between 1C to 1.5C

Looks like some low end svr wx threats across DFW this weekend, certainly enough to keep things interesting. It doesn't look like a widespread rain event but you can never throw out the chance of storms building into a MCS off the dryline. The interesting thing about Saturday is that the dryline will be retreating back west across DFW during the day vs. mixing in from the west.

gboudx wrote:I'm in north Austin this week. What beautiful weather here. Almost makes up for the hideous looking traffic on 183.

Dude ... glad you're here. But my advice to you is to stay away from central Austin. It's SXSW time. Hundreds of thousands of guests.

And I see you're enjoying our lovely traffic. We used to always say "well, at least we're not Dallas or Houston." Now it's the other way around! LOL.

Weather here has been great this week. Today should be very nice.

Good news everyone! I will be volunteering at the Fort Worth NWS this Summer for their student volunteer program!

TheProfessor wrote:Good news everyone! I will be volunteering at the Fort Worth NWS this Summer for their student volunteer program!

That is awesome news! Congratulations.

Of course, we'll be expecting to benefit now from having an "inside source" at the NWS.

Portastorm wrote:

gboudx wrote:I'm in north Austin this week. What beautiful weather here. Almost makes up for the hideous looking traffic on 183.

Dude ... glad you're here. But my advice to you is to stay away from central Austin. It's SXSW time. Hundreds of thousands of guests.

And I see you're enjoying our lovely traffic. We used to always say "well, at least we're not Dallas or Houston." Now it's the other way around! LOL.

Weather here has been great this week. Today should be very nice.

I'm going nowhere near the SXSW scene. This is actually my first time spending any time at all in Austin. I've only driven through, or around on way to Bastrop or SA. The traffic is bad, but in this area(Arboretum) I've noticed the drivers are a lot more courteous than I'm used to in the Dallas area. Drivers will actually let you in traffic rather than try and cut you off. And drivers here use those things on your cars than indicate which way you will be turning. I forget what those are called. I've heard a lot less car horns as well.

TheProfessor wrote:Good news everyone! I will be volunteering at the Fort Worth NWS this Summer for their student volunteer program!

Congrats! The more connections you can make before graduation, the better off you will be. I did a summer internship at the company I'm working at now.

South Texas Storms wrote:

TheProfessor wrote:Good news everyone! I will be volunteering at the Fort Worth NWS this Summer for their student volunteer program!

Congrats! The more connections you can make before graduation, the better off you will be. I did a summer internship at the company I'm working at now.

Great news Professor. Keep us updated this summer. It has been a joy seeing your progress over the years starting with all the posts while in class in high school. Keep it up!!
Warm one on tap for today approaching the record of 88 . Probably will fall just short. Good, I don't like running the a/c in March. Only a minor cool down next week and I have a feeling March will be well above normal when it is all said and done. Ho hum.

Maybe a big Texas rain maker on tap? The Euro has a big western trough and PWAT values across Texas are approaching 3 STD above normal.

The ECMWF Weeklies suggests some chilly air returns around March 27th, +/- a day or two.

The 12z Euro looks a lot like the 12z 12K NAM with areas north of I20 and east of I35 picking up some decent storms this weekend.

I agree signal is increasing for a late month cold snap. WWB in the central Pacific is boosting odds of an El Nino to try and get going.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/974654748958904321






Made a post how below the ocean surface we are very close to 2009 right now in the ENSO thread. In years that El Nino tries to come on, April tends to be cool/wet

March 2009 has been a pretty decent analog up to this point in the month.

About 20% of the Euro EPS members and the control get some winter wx into Texas over the next two weeks

Multiple chances for storms across DFW this weekend, coverage looks to be highest in the NE portions but we all know how models struggle with convection placement and timing;





SPC is most interested in Sunday: