Florida Weather

[boca]

NWS Miami dropped the strong cold front idea and winds will shift NE after frontal passage.Most of the remainder of the forecast period will be quiet
weather under high pressure. It isn`t until late Thursday that
the next front approaches the area. Even then, the NBM is a
little too quick with the front compared to the GFS and ECMWF,
which do not bring the front into the area until Thursday
afternoon or evening. However, The NBM does keep the frontal
passage dry. The two synoptic models show the front coming through
fairly dry, maybe some light showers. The other thing to note is
the wind behind the front should be northeasterly, which would
indicate that the air mass will be moderated by the marine
environment, and may not have significant cold air associated with
it. However, this is still a week out and the pattern and timing
could change dramatically.

[NDG]

NWS Miami dropped the strong cold front idea and winds will shift NE after frontal passage.Most of the remainder of the forecast period will be quiet
weather under high pressure. It isn`t until late Thursday that
the next front approaches the area. Even then, the NBM is a
little too quick with the front compared to the GFS and ECMWF,
which do not bring the front into the area until Thursday
afternoon or evening. However, The NBM does keep the frontal
passage dry. The two synoptic models show the front coming through
fairly dry, maybe some light showers. The other thing to note is
the wind behind the front should be northeasterly, which would
indicate that the air mass will be moderated by the marine
environment, and may not have significant cold air associated with
it. However, this is still a week out and the pattern and timing
could change dramatically.

But they still keep it more dramatic than it usually is with a back door cold front, I guess is a good way of slowly back paddling away from their busted "strong cold front" forecast in their 7-10 day range forecast.

[NDG]

Well, it looks like the GFS might be right after all, it continues to be more persistent than not in that a strong cold front will come through the Peninsula on Thursday, but it will be a progressive one due to the -PNA pattern by then. The Euro is trending towards the GFS but not as aggressive with the colder temps as the GFS which shows low temps in the low 40s across the I-4 corridor for both Friday and Saturday mornings.
The Euro shows low temps in the upper 40s Friday morning across the I-4 corridor, low 60s for SE FL.

[psyclone]

Winter is done. We're going to have a cooldown with a couple chilly days and 3 or so snappy nights after the current warm streak and then the warm returns and it sticks for the long haul. by the time the pattern has a chance to flip...even if it does...it will be too late to deliver anything of consequence... most likely. Of course there's always a chance things could change. but more likely is we have already experienced most of our chilly weather and a more typical warm/dry nina pattern is about to lock in and carry us to the finish line.

[toad strangler]

Well, it looks like the GFS might be right after all, it continues to be more persistent than not in that a strong cold front will come through the Peninsula on Thursday, but it will be a progressive one due to the -PNA pattern by then. The Euro is trending towards the GFS but not as aggressive with the colder temps as the GFS which shows low temps in the low 40s across the I-4 corridor for both Friday and Saturday mornings.
The Euro shows low temps in the upper 40s Friday morning across the I-4 corridor, low 60s for SE FL.

Low 60's for lows in the south land? Bring on summer! lol

[HURRICANELONNY]

Yea don't know why NWS comments on 1 run of a real cool down. Think chances down here for artic air intrusion is about over. Just normal fronts bringing temps back to norm. Well it's been better winter then last year. Cooler and dry. Not warm and dry like predicted in a La Nina year. Well atleast not 90 yet.

[psyclone]

Yea don't know why NWS comments on 1 run of a real cool down. Think chances down here for artic air intrusion is about over. Just normal fronts bringing temps back to norm. Well it's been better winter then last year. Cooler and dry. Not warm and dry like predicted in a La Nina year. Well atleast not 90 yet.

NWS comments because they're like us...weather geeks looking for something interesting. This winter may well end near or even slightly above normal when the dust settles. It only feels chilly because it was preceded by about 5 exceptional torches. The pine trees around me are not pollinating yet. they're about 2 weeks late and it's the latest i can recall. they're going to explode into a yellow mushroom cloud in 3-2-1....

[chaser1]

Winter is done. We're going to have a cooldown with a couple chilly days and 3 or so snappy nights after the current warm streak and then the warm returns and it sticks for the long haul. by the time the pattern has a chance to flip...even if it does...it will be too late to deliver anything of consequence... most likely. Of course there's always a chance things could change. but more likely is we have already experienced most of our chilly weather and a more typical warm/dry nina pattern is about to lock in and carry us to the finish line.

I'd agree it'll be perhaps a more nina-like pattern to come then the chilly December/January that most of Florida has experienced, but i'm not seeing the next 6-8 weeks quite as warm straight through though. I still think that we'll continue to see decent frontal passages each week that'll drop Central/North Florida night-time temps into the 40's (prob. 50's for S. Fla) for 2-3 nights at a time before veering winds off the water moderate the air. No way do I think that following this next quick cool down, that 80's are back and here to stay..... not yet anyway. My guess is we'll see ongoing warm 3-4 day spells followed by 2-3 days of back to cool and crisp. I know that's nothing exciting but at least to me, that still kinda defines our basic "Florida Winter weather" (minus a couple typical decent squall lines we're accustomed to get). In fact, yesterday's stalled weak front over Central Florida resulted in a dense overcast, uneventful drip-drip morning sprinkles, and light northerly winds that sure did provide the Orlando region quite the chilly & dank day yesterday. So, as long as I still have firewood and continue to see recurrent long range WNW to NW mid level flow of sub-564mb heights, I'll happily take whatever brief incursions of sweater weather that I think we'll continue to get

[psyclone]

we've got another cooldown in sight so more firepit weather is in store. Mild to warm days with some night time chill is pretty good stuff. doesn't look to torch anytime soon. at this time of year a normal to slightly above normal pattern translates to agreeable weather for most..

[Patrick99]

Geez, our rain chances are looking poor. I checked in on GFS to see what may be coming down the pipe, and it's not a lot. Looks like straight up tourist weather for the duration.

[toad strangler]

Geez, our rain chances are looking poor. I checked in on GFS to see what may be coming down the pipe, and it's not a lot. Looks like straight up tourist weather for the duration.

Def heading into our notorious dry time of the year and La Nina looks to be flexing her SE US dry muscles. Fire season ramping up.

[psyclone]

Persistent sun and warmth with a long dry spell is my favorite time of year. It's feeling wonderful with a nice breeze and warm conditions.

[boca]

Geez, our rain chances are looking poor. I checked in on GFS to see what may be coming down the pipe, and it's not a lot. Looks like straight up tourist weather for the duration.

I honestly don’t think we will get rain until the end of May.

[boca]

Geez, our rain chances are looking poor. I checked in on GFS to see what may be coming down the pipe, and it's not a lot. Looks like straight up tourist weather for the duration.

I honestly don’t think we will get rain until the end of May.We are too far south to get rain from these cold fronts because the main energy is moving NE and we are left with a skeleton front.

[NDG]

Geez, our rain chances are looking poor. I checked in on GFS to see what may be coming down the pipe, and it's not a lot. Looks like straight up tourist weather for the duration.

I honestly don’t think we will get rain until the end of May.We are too far south to get rain from these cold fronts because the main energy is moving NE and we are left with a skeleton front.

We're in full La Nina pattern now with mid level ridging over the Caribbean and GOM.
I saw a video yesterday on FB how clear the water is on the Bay side of Anna Maria Island, very little rain during the past 4-5 weeks has a lot to do with it.

[psyclone]

If we can pull down a February on the warm side of the tracks the winter is going to end up normal to somewhat above normal overall. That's probably doable with Nina acting like its normal self. It only feels cold because it wasn't a full scale torch.

[psyclone]

Look back on page 828 and you'll see the last GFS fantasy freeze...which should be happening tonight. freezing temps down to Ft Myers. LOL.

[Patrick99]

Well, here's our extra, super-duper "strong" cold front. Better enjoy it while we have it.

GFS actually showing a good deal more rain now in the long range, as apparently systems just barge in and out repeatedly, leading to some stalled front/warm front action. I hope that happens.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I'm lovin it. Nice cool air advection. 50's tonight. 70's for the weekend. Another front Monday to keep us cool.

[toad strangler]

Look back on page 828 and you'll see the last GFS fantasy freeze...which should be happening tonight. freezing temps down to Ft Myers. LOL.

That sure was a hoot lol. Enjoying tonight though for sure on the Treasure Coast!