STORM2K

The radar today looks like late May with seabreeze showers and storms developing and moving inland from the west coast.

Nice pollen washing shower earlier here. the extended outlooks are trending cooler...we're destined to get some remnants of the arctic invasion to the west later on..

FlaWeatherDude wrote:Due to convid models have been struggling greatly. They greatly underestimated the Pacific Jet Retraction and this is the result! However, an Equatorward Pacific Jet Extension is forecasted starting early nextweek which should bring the Polar Vortex east. Eventually this'll lead to a +PNA/-EPO combo to combine with a -AO/NAO. Just like models had underestimated the Jet Retraction and has now adjusted the cold west. So also models are underestimating the Jet Extension and will trend cold(perhaps greatly) late next week and beyond!

Your saying that winter is not over for us here in Florida and we should get in on it because Texas is very cold right now.

Don't look now. GFS last run out and out dropped the cold for the 26th, with the subtropical ridge exerting major control over Florida. Still some cold 20-21st.

We're going to get a sample of the cold air (greatly modified) eventually. 6-10 day is running on the cool side of normal. All hail the southeast ridge...it's doing work year round as it deflects hurricanes in the summer and arctic cold in the winter. texas is really under the gun with a potentially catastrophic deep freeze that could destroy wildlife, landscaping and infrastructure. A similar blast here would be a nightmare. we have escaped yet again and it's too late for it to reload and pose a big risk this year. In that sense winter is indeed finished for us but we're still in the game for chilly invasions.

psyclone wrote:We're going to get a sample of the cold air (greatly modified) eventually. 6-10 day is running on the cool side of normal. All hail the southeast ridge...it's doing work year round as it deflects hurricanes in the summer and arctic cold in the winter. texas is really under the gun with a potentially catastrophic deep freeze that could destroy wildlife, landscaping and infrastructure. A similar blast here would be a nightmare. we have escaped yet again and it's too late for it to reload and pose a big risk this year. In that sense winter is indeed finished for us but we're still in the game for chilly invasions.

Yeah, that looks really nasty for Texas. I would not want that. At all.

Slight risk on the map tomorrow for the I-4 corridor through mid Florida. Sketchy weather for Daytona.

Extended outlooks show moderating conditions over the US. Winter is still dead for us.

SPC has Central Florida under a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for Sunday.
They may be playing it safe since the models are having issues with verifying with this system, hence the convective storms this morning which were not predicted.

Categorical Day2 1730Z Outlook

Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 18,614 7,927,006 Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Orlando, FL...Clearwater, FL...Spring Hill, FL...
MARGINAL 12,348 2,597,935 Jacksonville, FL...Gainesville, FL...Port St. Lucie, FL...Jupiter, FL...Palm Beach Gardens, FL...

Well at least get some rain down here tomorrow. Cooler for next weekend or shall I say normal. No Texas weather here. Enjoy a little rain and cooler weather. It's all we got

Looked like there were some rotating cells over the Everglades last night - not sure anyone was there to care or notice whether or not any twisters actually touched down.

Should be pretty nice this upcoming weekend. The models a week or so ago were initially predicting Feb 20 to be pretty freaking cold......like 40 degree low in Naples type cold. Needless to say as time wore on that kept getting bumped upward lol

Towards end of the current runs, you see all the really cold air having retreated well north into Canada. Big relief for Texas is on the way if they can hold out a little while longer!

Every single model freeze this Winter...was a flop. Considering what happened to our west... thank goodness. Now it's mid Feb and the outlooks over the next month lean slightly above normal. Here's to hoping for a nina spring with lots of warm sunny days.

We really lucked out with the record breaking Arctic Blast that came down the Plains to Texas and lower MS river valley, a lot of times those intense shallow Arctic air mass makes a way to FL eventually but thanks to not a strong negative NAO, that it was a west based weak -NAO and not a typical positive PNA it went down the central US instead of the eastern US.

we really did luck out. this would have been a catastrophe for us. Now it's getting late enough that we can safely cheer on late season cold invasions absent the worry of a destructive cold event.

psyclone wrote:we really did luck out. this would have been a catastrophe for us. Now it's getting late enough that we can safely cheer on late season cold invasions absent the worry of a destructive cold event.

Yeah - the only actual "cold" I can remember later than this date was the air mass that came in after the March 1993 Superstorm squall line. That wind was whipping in out of the NW.

Patrick99 wrote:

psyclone wrote:we really did luck out. this would have been a catastrophe for us. Now it's getting late enough that we can safely cheer on late season cold invasions absent the worry of a destructive cold event.

Yeah - the only actual "cold" I can remember later than this date was the air mass that came in after the March 1993 Superstorm squall line. That wind was whipping in out of the NW.

The weather will be very boring for the next few months and I wouldn’t be surprised if we start seeing signals of drought. We will be in the low to mid 80s and lows around 70 from here on out exception will be Saturday. We will not have much rain chances either.

I sure hope you're right. Boring weather is good and it is exactly what i will wishcast...

boca wrote:

Patrick99 wrote:

psyclone wrote:we really did luck out. this would have been a catastrophe for us. Now it's getting late enough that we can safely cheer on late season cold invasions absent the worry of a destructive cold event.

Yeah - the only actual "cold" I can remember later than this date was the air mass that came in after the March 1993 Superstorm squall line. That wind was whipping in out of the NW.

The weather will be very boring for the next few months and I wouldn’t be surprised if we start seeing signals of drought. We will be in the low to mid 80s and lows around 70 from here on out exception will be Saturday. We will not have much rain chances either.

Keep seeing the CPC map predicting a developing drought, but the trend has not been going that way. I wonder how much of this prediction is based on yearly trends for certain months.
This winter has been anything but boring like it or not.

It's actually wet in my neighborhood. We've had abundant rainfall.

I can't complain either, I've had some good rains during the past few days but I am sure dry times are coming especially when we get to April when the sun is strong and dry things out really quick.