STORM2K

What a bust in the forecast for yesterday here in east central FL, it was supposed to get into the low 70s but we didn't get out of the 50s all day. I have noticed that models, especially the GFS, always struggle with cool NE winds coming down from coastal NC down to FL in it making further south than what models forecast.
Whoever booked a Spring Break Weekend in Daytona Beach was screwed with a winter like weekend, drizzly and cold.

Fat lady is warming up the vocal cords and getting ready to call it on our fall/winter/spring season, at least for the southern peninsula. Noticeable uptick in humidity this AM.

Patrick99 wrote:Fat lady is warming up the vocal cords and getting ready to call it on our fall/winter/spring season, at least for the southern peninsula. Noticeable uptick in humidity this AM.

Yep, if anyone loves hot and dry..... they'll be in heaven today and going forward into next week. I'm still holding out hope for one last decent frontal passage as advertised in both GFS and EURO longer range right around the first few days of April. Even still, that'll likely be limited to "milder" South Florida days and perhaps mid 60 low's down there. I do think Central Florida could get one last reprieve of low to mid 70's for highs and mid to upper 50's for lows (with cooler temps further north of course). No doubt we'll have to push through one last hot week of March beforehand.

It looks like next weekend's cooldown is the real deal. getting late such a cool and dry airmass. It should feel great, especially after our current summer preview.

ugh. I hope this front busts. 20 knot NE wind, 70 degrees, 9 foot seas is forecast for Friday . No fun for those of us who like the water.

psyclone wrote:It looks like next weekend's cooldown is the real deal. getting late such a cool and dry airmass. It should feel great, especially after our current summer preview.

Would be an incredible late season gift!

Late week temps more typical of mid winter now showing in my forecast. near 50 degree lows and 70ish highs. excellent. Unfortunately for Destin this will be a wipeout for boating conditions....maybe better toward Easter Sunday. But for other activities it is going to be nice. One concern is likely to be fire weather. With dry antecedent conditions and windy weather/low dewpoints...wildfire spread could be very efficient. Looks like red flag conditions might exists over 2 or 3 days. Otherwise it's a phenomenal late season cold snap in a winter that featured lots of chilly nights

Good chance that highs will be only in the 60s on Good Friday across east central FL, last time we had highs in the 60s in early April was all the way back in 2009.
My A/C will get a nice break for a couple of days.

SPC has much of the SFL east coast metro area in a marginal risk this afternoon. I'll be interested to see if anything can get going. Could be a "pinned seabreeze" type situation. At MIA, looks like a weak breeze may be just starting up after a mostly calm morning.

Given that the NWS has a front coming down next weekend and the NAO/AO being negative. Maybe will get a little cool down by next week or a dew down.

Drought busting rains? Maybe not, however today's and tomorrow's rains may go far to interrupt what was otherwise increasingly dangerous fire conditions through many parts of the state. Let's just hope that lightning strikes don't touch off those very fires in spite of expected heavy rains.

Not every day you see this from SPC:



Nasty winds and a fair amount of damage from yesterday's MCS, today's may be even more interesting.

HRRR is very persistent in that the line of storms moving in from the gulf into central FL over the next few hours will produce 60-80 mph wind gusts.
This was in my neighborhood yesterday winds gusted near 60 mph. When the gusts squall came in well ahead of the rain which eventually evaoporated over my area it was like a dust storm after more than 5 weeks without rain. The reduced visibility looked like rain but it was actually dust in the air.

I was just south of the bow apex as it raced in off the gulf. Had strong but non severe gusts in vicinity of 50mph. There's a decent swath of tree and roof damage just to my north. When the lights flicker and you can hear the gust front approaching...you know it's significant. Tons of much needed soaking rainfall. A nice rainy day after a long dry spell is a treat....as is hours of rolling thunder.

Really strong storm went through here. One of the strongest in recent memory. Lots of wind. There's roof shingles in my yard, not sure yet if they're from my house.

AdamFirst wrote:Really strong storm went through here. One of the strongest in recent memory. Lots of wind. There's roof shingles in my yard, not sure yet if they're from my house.

Yes it was a long duration severe / straight line wind event. At least a half hour long in St. Lucie West. Probably the worst I've seen since Irma passed to our SW.

Pretty uneventful here in Fort Lauderdale. Some rain and maybe 25 mph wind gust.

Lots of large hail reports today in the Orlando area but luckly it was to the east of me.
Regarding winds it was not as strong as they were yesterday, the strongest 60-80 mph winds were where surface temps had warmed up well into the upper 80s before the squall line moving through. It was nice rain today in my area, much needed after almost 6 weeks with only a couple of traces of rain.

Current -NAO pattern and PNA going positive will favor FL get into a wet pattern at least over the next 7-10 days, much needed rains.

According to the GFS, another weather event is looking to occur this Monday/Tuesday that should bring healthy rains to most of the State. Right now it looks like Central and North Florida will be the potential focus for any strong storms but it's too early to really know. I don't see this as being nearly as a dynamic set-up for severe conditions. Most important will be the close to 2" of additional rain that should fall over broad areas starting Sunday.

Climo says this thread should be dead but reality is different with an increasing risk of significant rains over central and north florida and perhaps some strong/svr risk tossed in at some point. We've been blessed with a good rains this dry season. just when things start to get a little crunchy we get bailed out. Heavy rain now will pretty much bridge us to the rainy season. Current WPC 7 day QPF output shows 3"+ over central and north florida south of I-10 and north of I-4. That's a lot of water and we've already exceeded normal April rainfall in many of these areas.