STORM2K

Evil Jeremy wrote:I would like to thank every South Florida poster who thumbed their nose at Mother Nature last week for bringing on this deluge.

LOL the handwringing in here was getting SAL and SST like the the Indicators thread

Yep amazing what difference a week makes. We go from bone dry to flood watches across South Florida as the deluge continues. Rainy season just took longer than usual to get going this year.

Well, my little corner of St Pete did manage .25" of rain. I would like to see a bit more but happy the dry spell has been broken. If we could get those afternoon storm patterns going, that would suit me just fine.

stpeteweathergal wrote:Well, my little corner of St Pete did manage .25" of rain. I would like to see a bit more but happy the dry spell has been broken. If we could get those afternoon storm patterns going, that would suit me just fine.

Here in Northern Pinellas we've been hit with at least a couple of inches, if not 3-4" of rain as the showers keep redeveloping over us. We've had almost continuous rain since 3PM, extremely heavy at times, and it's still going at 6:45 PM.

Hope you like lots of Bermuda High, and a SE Texas-landfalling hurricane, because that's all the GFS is showing.

Might be an interesting convective set up for a good chunk of South and Central Florida over the next 2-3 days. Late season frontal boundary sagging south over Central to S. Florida might be enough of an extra trigger for some heavy rain for some. I'm gonna guess that someone between Kissimmee and the Cape might see some decent hail or impressive downbursts late today (or especially tomorrow). Either way, it sure would be nice if some uniform and significant precip would share the love with all of us. These pop-corn convective cells have been so up and down that you think you're about to get pasted with a strong cell, just to have it dissipate on approach LOL.

I went out of town at the end of May and just got back. we've gone from dusty dry to a swamp during that time. another 2-4" rain bomb with lots of thunder last night was a great welcome back gift. the rainy season always shows up.

I went out of town at the end of May and just got back. we've gone from dusty dry to a swamp during that time. another 2-4" rain bomb with lots of thunder last night was a great welcome back gift. the rainy season always shows up.

Left in mid June for Spain, grass was a brown as it can be. Came back this past Sunday, I was glad to see it back green again but the severe drought prior to the rains did some damage to it that may take a while to fill back up.
Did anyone ever find out where is Northjaxpro? I hope he's ok.

As Floridians become increasingly aware of Hurricane Elsa and find themselves looking down the barrel of an NHC cone of risk, I can't help but feel "shades of Irma" - a flashback to 2017. A storm track from the south is SO disconcerting in terms of the range of potential impact to both East coast and West coast.

I've had 3 separate rain events of at least 4" during the past week and a half. we are waterlogged at my location. and of course it's raining right now.

psyclone wrote:I've had 3 separate rain events of at least 4" during the past week and a half. we are waterlogged at my location. and of course it's raining right now.

And the hits keep coming as a training band has set up over North Pinellas this morning. This is all we need with Elsa's rains on tap, it could be a swamp around here by next week.

HurricaneBelle wrote:

psyclone wrote:I've had 3 separate rain events of at least 4" during the past week and a half. we are waterlogged at my location. and of course it's raining right now.

And the hits keep coming as a training band has set up over North Pinellas this morning. This is all we need with Elsa's rains on tap, it could be a swamp around here by next week.

nothing to do except make another carafe of coffee and let it dump. at least we don't have to shovel it! But i am getting stir crazy..

chaser1 wrote:As Floridians become increasingly aware of Hurricane Elsa and find themselves looking down the barrel of an NHC cone of risk, I can't help but feel "shades of Irma" - a flashback to 2017. A storm track from the south is SO disconcerting in terms of the range of potential impact to both East coast and West coast.

Eh she's just a tropical storm.

Looks like Marathon & Middle Keys are about to have a healthy rain band sweep through. That, along with some newly forming discreet cells appear to be setting up to race northwest between Cutler Ridge,, Kendall and Miami Beach over the next hour or two. Nothing dramatic but will probably contain some solid gusts to near 40mph. A few additional outer bands will probably begin developing driving fast northwest moving squalls over the Upper Keys, Miami Dade & Broward over the next 2-4 hours.

Winds are definitely picking up in Nw Broward right. Sustained 15-20 mph… Squalls to follow?

Post analysis..... I'd say that "statewide reaching" impact from Elsa was a good less then what was advertised (or that I expected as well). While some areas were significantly affected by storm surge, gusty winds, tornadoes (Jacksonville, etc), and drenching rains..... some regions picked up minimal rain to speak of. Given the deep layer flow and east biased storm envelope, I certainly would have bet my underwear that nearly all reporting stations would've received at least 1-2" precip.

Regardless, this was good "keeping our heads on a swivel" practice run-through. On a side-note, I think NHC did a fairly impressive job with Elsa's track forecast especially in light of how varying models handled Elsa's small core interacting with the Greater Antilles and the narrow traffic lanes between them. Next up - Fred (though to me Grace, Kate, & Wanda just sound like more ominous names to threaten Florida for some reason )

We're about to get hit by a big old ULL. Looks quite impressive on the water vapor!

Upper low has triggered a rare summer "slight risk" over parts of the peninsula today with some hailers and downbursts likely with spicier convection. should be a great day for sky and radar watching.

Nice spin east of the peninsula bringing a lot of extra rain today.

 https://twitter.com/NWSMiami/status/1414630245530062852