STORM2K

On one end of the spectrum lies what I think may be little more then a remnant swirl moving WNW practically over and along the N. Cuban coastline. The flip side to that is an awful lot of model support for a TD or T.S. near Cape Sable sometime Saturday but the biggest impact may very well be 8-10" of rain over parts of S. Florida as a result of any modest redevelopment.

Been hot and drier. Would be nice if Fl got cooler weather in September.

canes92 wrote:Been hot and drier. Would be nice if Fl got cooler weather in September.

Eh...., would you settle for "wetter" LOL? 91L might just dump some copious rain over the state during the next few days. As for cool, I'd love that but think we'll have to wait until early October for at least a shot or two of noticeably dryer/less humid air can make some mornings feel slightly more fall-like in the northern 2/3rd's of the state.

Ok…I know these lower dew points will be poof in the next GFS run but wouldn’t that be nice

gatorcane wrote:Ok…I know these lower dew points will be poof in the next GFS run but wouldn’t that be nice

https://i.postimg.cc/MHhrjjWH/gfs-Td2m-seus-fh282-348.gif

Count me in!! Gonna wishcast me a September cold front

The latest 18Z GFS is doubling down but of course it won’t be correct seeing how it is in fantasy land. Still some good entertainment. What a front with those very low dew points. Would abruptly end the rainy season

This is the first year in a long time that SE Florida hasn’t even had a model hurricane threat for us and I was able to go to Key West without having to cancel due to threats. Let’s see if we can make it thru October. The Bermuda high wasn’t as strong to allow threats from the MDR to make it passed even 50w and we are in a fall pattern so maybe the luck will continue.

I cannot wait to transition out of this sopping wet mess of a summer. Now that we're headed into the 2nd half of september it is ok to start looking for some improvements.

gatorcane wrote:The latest 18Z GFS is doubling down but of course it won’t be correct seeing how it is in fantasy land. Still some good entertainment. What a front with those very low dew points. Would abruptly end the rainy season

https://i.postimg.cc/ZqX8p8z6/gfs-Td2m-seus-fh282-348-2.gif

Would love this to come to fruition. I just can't tolerate the heat this year. I've read about the La Nina developing and hoping it delivers another cold December like last year.

gatorcane wrote:The latest 18Z GFS is doubling down but of course it won’t be correct seeing how it is in fantasy land. Still some good entertainment. What a front with those very low dew points. Would abruptly end the rainy season

https://i.postimg.cc/ZqX8p8z6/gfs-Td2m-seus-fh282-348-2.gif

Guess what happens when you post 300 hour PLUS maps like that? and ya, you premised with the likely fail idea but WHy? WHy?
Florida doesn't receive September cold fronts like that.

toad strangler wrote:

gatorcane wrote:The latest 18Z GFS is doubling down but of course it won’t be correct seeing how it is in fantasy land. Still some good entertainment. What a front with those very low dew points. Would abruptly end the rainy season

https://i.postimg.cc/ZqX8p8z6/gfs-Td2m-seus-fh282-348-2.gif

Guess what happens when you post 300 hour PLUS maps like that? and ya, you premised with the likely fail idea but WHy? WHy?
Florida doesn't receive September cold fronts like that.

Wistful thinking. Here is the last run. Under 300 hours so maybe a small tiny chance this happens

The good 'ole GFS teasing us as usual past its 120 hr forecast every late September

8-14 day shows somewhat below normal over the southeast. It's not too early for a push of refreshing air in late sept. Lower dewpoints would be awesome with the longer nights and that's not asking too much west and north of lake O.

18Z GFS with sub-70 dew points even into South Florida at 198+ hours:

Sub-70 dew points across South Florida in a week? This will feel nice if it happens:

NWS Miami disco on fronts:

LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...

As all eyes focus on the first autumn cold front of the season,
the pattern across south Florida will be mostly unchanged.
Diurnally driven convection will continue through much of the up
coming weekend. Globals show the frontal boundary stalling along
or perhaps just south of the I-4 corridor through the weekend as
the front becomes passive. With a relatively stagnant lower level
flow, sea/gulf breeze activity will initiate each afternoon.

The upper level synoptics become somewhat more interesting going
into the start of the new workweek. Globals indicate our upper
level flow will begin to shift to a drier northwesterly flow as a
H5 upper level trough begins to amplify just a bit just
downstream over the western Atlantic. This may help bring the
aforementioned front back to life somewhat and bring it closer to
the region. Spatial and temporal differences exist so the
specifics are still a bit murky, however, with most guidance
really drying the upper levels, started a slight downward trend in
POPs/QPF toward the end of the period with the best rainfall
potential residing along and south of Alligator Alley.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=0

Rainy season ending early this year?

Looks like those sub-70 dew points will be arriving across metro SE Florida starting tomorrow and will last for a while with an abnormally dry airmass for this time of year. Kudos to the GFS for showing this well in advance.

the rainy season has shut off here...finally. looking forward to fall pushing in

Very pleasant evening across Florida with sub-70 dew points across the most of the area and a nice northeast breeze across SE Florida. Feels like fall and the rainy season may have just come to an end early.

If it did end it would be one of the earliest on record:
https://www.weather.gov/mfl/summer_season