Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 060839
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GRACE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015
500 AM AST SUN SEP 06 2015

...GRACE STRENGTHENING OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 28.5W
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
609 AM AST SUN SEP 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS... MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS THE TUTT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION OR CONVECTION WAS ACCOMPANYING THE
WAVE AT THIS TIME. THE UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE NEXT WEEK AND WILL THEREFORE AID IN LIMITING
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE
WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE WEDNESDAY THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION ON THURSDAY BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWED A SURGE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ACCOMPANYING THE WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE. UPPER LEVEL FLOW INDUCED BY THE TUTT WAS ENHANCING SOME OF THE
SHOWERS AS THEY MOVED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND REACHED THE ISLANDS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TAPER
OFF BY LATE MORNING LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
DURING THE REST OF THE DAY SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO
COMBINE WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS TO ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER PARTS OF THE WEST INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. LESSER SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE...DURING THE REST OF THE DAY. RECENT GFS GUIDANCE AND
SAT IMAGERY SUGGEST DRIER AIR MASS EXPECTED TO FILTER IN FORM THE
EAST TRAILING THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE. GRADUALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY MONDAY...AND UNTIL THE LATTER PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK...WHEN THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS
FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME...LOCALIZED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM TIME TO TIME. .

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR EXPECTED ACROSS TNCM...TKPK...TIST
AND TISX. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THRU 06/16Z. AFT 16Z...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS INTERIOR PUERTO RICO...SPREADING WESTWARD ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BY 06/18Z ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ WITH MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. TSRA WILL END BY
06/22Z. WINDS FROM THE SURFACE TO FL160 FROM ESE AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS
EXCEPT FOR LAND AND SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES NEAR SURFACE AFTER
06/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
WITH LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS.
SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS EXPECTED TODAY AND WINDS OF 15 KNOTS OR
LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 80 91 80 / 20 20 20 30
STT 90 80 90 81 / 20 30 30 20

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
222 PM AST SUN SEP 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WEAK
SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A MODERATE
EASTERLY WIND FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED IN THE MORNING HOURS
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE
OBSERVED OVER AND NORTHWEST OF THE CORDILLERA THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS THESE AREAS DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS. TEMPERATURES WERE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ALONG COASTAL AREAS...WITH EASTERLY
WINDS AT 15 MPH OR LESS.

UNDER A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER...A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...BEING MONDAY THE
DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PASSING SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 52W WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. A
SECOND TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 38W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH BULK OF MOISTURE WILL ALSO
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH
AMPLIFYING TROUGH TO RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY.

AT 1100 AM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 29.9 WEST. INFORMATION
REGARDING INTENSITY OR TRAJECTORY...PLEASE SEE TCPAT2 AND TCDAT2
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST PRD. MOUNTAIN
OBSC WITH -SHRA/SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. SOME SHRA/TSRA MAY MOVE IN THE VICINITY OF
TJBQ/TJMZ THRU 0623Z. TNCM/TKPK CAN EXPECT PASSING SHRA AND LOW
CELLING THRU 0706Z. TJSJ/TIST/TISX CAN EXPECT VCSH WITH BRIEF
-SHRA/SHRA AFT 0706Z. ESE WINDS AT 5 TO 12 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS
AND SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS TIL 0623Z FOLLOWED BY CALM TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND EASTERLY WINDS AT
15 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 90 80 92 / 20 20 10 10
STT 80 90 81 91 / 40 40 10 10

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
520 AM AST MON SEP 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND HOLD UNTIL THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A MODERATE EASTERLY
WIND FLOW. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 45 WEST THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL
AS ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. THIS
MOISTURE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING
OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF PR...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE AND UNDER A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER...A GENERALLY FAIR AND
MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 45W THIS MORNING
WILL REACH THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BUT AT THIS MOMENT LOOKS LIKE
THAT THE BULK OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL COMBINE WITH
AMPLIFYING TROUGH TO RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM GRACE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE WEST BUT THE
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VERY UNFAVORABLE AS IT APPROACHES THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY...THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS THE STORM WEAKENING
SIGNIFICANTLY IF NOT DISSIPATING INTO AN OPEN WAVE BY 4 TO 5
DAYS...MAYBE APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA AS A TROPICAL WAVE ON
LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD PASSING -SHRA EN ROUTE BTW ISLANDS AND ACROSS
THE FLYING AREA. FEW TCU OVR COASTAL WATERS. OVERALL VFR CONDS WILL
PREVAIL DURG ENTIRE PRD. SOME SHALLOW TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA TIL 07/14Z. EXPECT ONLY BRIEF MTN TOPS OBSCR
OVR PICO DEL ESTE MTN RANGE. AFT 07/17Z SHRA/TSRA FCST TO DVLP WRN
PR XCP N AND S COASTS W/PSBL MVFR CONDS AT TJMZ AND BRIEF MTN TOP
OBSCR OF WRN HALF OF CORDILLERA CENTRAL. VFR AFT AFT 07/22Z. WND BLO
FL200 5 TO 20 KT. SFC WNDS FM E 10-12 KTS OR SO ...XCPT SLIGHTLY
HIGHER W/ LAND/SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES.

&&

.MARINE...A RELATIVELY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY
WITH SEAS UP TO 4 FEET...INCREASING UP TO 5 FEET BY TONIGHT.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY AT 10 TO AROUND 15 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 80 91 80 / 20 10 10 10
STT 90 81 89 80 / 40 10 10 10

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
210 PM AST MON SEP 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WEAK
SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A MODERATE
EASTERLY WIND FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NOTED ACROSS MOST OF
PUERTO RICO TODAY. LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE
NEAR SUNSET LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

UNDER A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER...A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 57W WILL MOVE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH BULK OF MOISTURE WILL ALSO REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE AREA...ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH
AMPLIFYING TROUGH TO RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY.

AT 1100 AM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 35.9 WEST. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS THE STORM DISSIPATING INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 120H. A
WETTER PATTERN CLOUD BE EXPECTED THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
PLEASE SEE TCPAT2 AND TCDAT2 ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER FOR MORE INFO ABOUT GRACE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES...EXCEPT AT TJBQ...
TJMZ AND POSSIBLY TJSJ WHERE MVFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA
THRU 22Z. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS LIKELY OVER ALONG THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL THRU THIS EVENING. IMPROVING WX CONDS EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO TUE AS DRY AIR MOVES IN. LOW LVL WINDS FM THE E-ESE AT 15-25
KT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND EASTERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 90 80 90 / 20 10 10 20
STT 81 90 80 90 / 20 20 10 20

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
504 AM AST TUE SEP 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
WESTWARD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND HOLD UNTIL
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...WILL PASS MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL
AS ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. THIS
MOISTURE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. HOWEVER...THIS
FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS
WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.

A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH BULK OF MOISTURE WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA...ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH AMPLIFYING TROUGH TO
RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

AT 5 AM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 41.0 WEST. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
HAS THE STORM DISSIPATING INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS.
HOWEVER...ACCORDINGLY TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE A WETTER PATTERN WILL
BE EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE
TCPAT2...TCMAT2 AND TCDAT2 ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT GRACE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES UNTIL 08/16Z. BRIEF MTN TOP
OBSC ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL WITH PSBL VCSH/VCTS FOR TJMZ AND
TJBQ AFTER 08/16Z...BREIF MVFR CONDS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TJMZ. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY MORNING ...BCMG FM E AND INCREASING
TO 10-15 KNOTS BTW 08/14Z-08/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...A RELATIVELY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND EASTERLY
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 80 91 80 / 10 10 20 30
STT 91 80 90 81 / 20 10 20 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
304 PM AST TUE SEP 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL
WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...MAINTAINING VERY DRY AND
STABLE AIR AT MID-LEVEL. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL HOLD FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...WITHOUT IMPACTING THE
LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE GRACE WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLANDS LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE INTERIOR AND
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...BUT MOST OF THEM HAVE BEEN
SHALLOW AND SHORT-LIVED DUE TO THE STRONG CAP AT 700MB. HOWEVER...
STILL EXPECTED ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST PR.
FOR TONIGHT...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AS DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
NEAR 52W...IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY THURSDAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WITH THIS WAVE...
HOWEVER MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS SOUTH OF PR.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS FORECASTING TROPICAL DEPRESSION
GRACE TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND AN OPEN
WAVE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...THE REMNANTS OF
GRACE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...
BRINGING ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD...
WITH SOME VCSH NEAR TJMZ/TJPS. LOW LVL WINDS FM THE E-ESE AT 15-25
KT.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...
WITH SEAS BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET. EXPOSED WATERS MAY EXPERIENCE UP TO
5 FEET. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 91 80 90 / 30 30 30 30
STT 80 90 81 90 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
624 AM AST WED SEP 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE FORECAST AREA AND
GENERALLY WEST OR NORTHWEST UNTIL A TROUGH FROM THE EAST MOVES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MID
LEVELS WILL BE DRY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT A TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGE
WILL INCREASE MOISTURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE WILL INCREASE MOISTURE LATE NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO
INCREASE. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THEN DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS FROM THE
EAST NORTHEAST DROPPED SOME RAIN ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND
THE WATERS AROUND CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. THIS MOISTURE WILL ALSO
FUEL MODERATE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN
PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THIS BAND THAT WILL LAST UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING ANOTHER BAND OF
MOISTURE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND
THE WATERS TO THE EAST. THIS MOISTURE WILL ALSO FUEL BETTER
CONVECTION ON THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY THE MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE WILL APPROACH THE AREA. ALTHOUGH GRACE IS
NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IT IS EXPECTED TO BE AN OPEN WAVE BY
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO EXPLAIN THE FASTER MOVEMENT AND HENCE
EARLIER ARRIVAL THAN EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL BE BETTER EVERYWHERE ON ACCOUNT OF THE PASSAGE...THIS
WILL BE A MODERATE EVENT IN PUERTO RICO AND RAINFALL MAY BE LESS
THAN HOPED FOR IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE PASSAGE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SHOULD BE
LEFT ON SATURDAY TO FUEL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. MOISTURE DIMINISHES AFTER SATURDAY BUT WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...THOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY HEAVY
ACCUMULATIONS...IN MANY PARTS OF PUERTO RICO. SHOWERS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND BRIEF IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AFTER
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AS THEY ARE UNTIL THE
APPROACH OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE TO THE
AREA...LIKELY AS AN OPEN WAVE. CARIBBEAN SEAS WILL INCREASE DURING
AND AFTER THE PASSAGE. ATLANTIC SEAS MAY EVEN REACH 7 FEET AS
SWELL AND WINDS ARRIVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 79 90 80 / 20 30 20 30
STT 91 80 90 80 / 20 30 20 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
222 PM AST WED SEP 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL
WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...MAINTAINING VERY DRY AND
STABLE AIR AT MID-LEVEL. THEN...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL HOLD
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE JUST EAST
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY... WITHOUT IMPACTING THE LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS.
REMNANTS OF GRACE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ISLANDS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS
OBSERVED ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY. STRONG CAP INVERSION AND DRY AIR
HAVE INHIBITED THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SO
FAR THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THIS EVENING...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION WILL HELP TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF USVI...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND EASTERN PR.

A TROPICAL WAVE JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS FORECAST TO
ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...AND PASS SOUTH OF THE
ISLANDS ON THURSDAY. THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS SOUTH OF PR.
THEN...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE GRACE IS FORECAST TO CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY MORNING.
THE ARRIVAL OF THE REMNANTS OF GRACE WILL COMBINE WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. APPEARS
THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU
THE FCST PERIOD. LOW LVL EASTERLY WINDS OF 10-20 KT WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE FLYING AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 2-4 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL SEAS OF 5 FEET WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM GRACE REACHES THE AREA. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FEET WITH
THE REMNANTS OF GRACE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE AGAIN ON SUNDAY TO 3-5 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 80 91 / 30 20 30 40
STT 80 90 80 90 / 30 20 30 40

[cycloneye]

New wave to watch in the next few days.

A tropical wave is expected to move westward from the coast of
Africa on Thursday. Some slow development of this system is
possible over the weekend as it moves westward across the tropical
Atlantic at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST THU SEP 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS... A WEAK TROUGH WILL SIT OVER THE
MONA CHANNEL AND THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH TUESDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA FROM THE EAST MID
WEEK...BUT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN.

AT MID LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF THE AREA
UNTIL ABOUT TUESDAY. PRESSURES WILL WEAKEN TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. MID LEVELS WILL BECOME QUITE
MOIST BY SATURDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL THEN RETURN UNTIL
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL DRIVE
MODERATE TRADE WINDS UNTIL LATER NEXT WEEK. FILAMENTS OF MOISTURE
AND A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING A LITTLE MORE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY REMNANTS OF
FORMERLY TROPICAL STORM GRACE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST OF THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL DECREASE ON
SUNDAY...BUT BETTER MOISTURE WILL ENTER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HEAVY SHOWERS FORMED JUST EAST OF MAINLAND PUERTO
RICO THIS MORNING AND LEFT MODERATE AMOUNTS OF RAIN ON THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE LUQUILLO RANGE AND ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE NORTHERN COAST LINE. THE LUIS MUNOZ MARIN AIRPORT SAW TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH BEFORE 5 AM AST...AND SOME SHOWERS WERE STILL
MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE EAST AT THAT TIME.

BETTER MOISTURE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. THEN SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL HOLD
SHOWERS TO A MINIMUM OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME ARE EXPECTED ON THE
EAST COAST. MODELS SHOW THE STRENGTH OF THE OPEN WAVE TRENDING
SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD...BUT MOISTURE VALUES CONTINUE MUCH AS THEY HAVE
BEEN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY AS WELL FROM
MOISTURE BANDS BEHIND THE WAVE. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA ON TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WHICH BEGINS A PERIOD OF ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER FOR THE AREA AND WILL USHER IN ENHANCED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND BETTER RAINFALL OVER THE
AREA. NEVERTHELESS...CURRENT MODELS INDICATE THE BEST MOISTURE
WILL BE LATER ON FRIDAY OF THIS WEEK THAN ANYTIME NEXT WEEK.

ALTHOUGH SOME AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL SEE RISES DURING THIS
UPCOMING RAINFALL EVENT...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...AS
SHOWERS WILL MOVE RELATIVELY RAPIDLY THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST
PERIOD WITH SOME VCSH EARLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS TJSJ/TIST/TISX
AND TNCM/TKPK. THIS AFTERNOON...BETWEEN 10/17-21Z MTN TOP
OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR WITH
VCSH/VCTS FOR TJMZ/TJBQ. AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT EAST WINDS AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS...INCREASING UP TO 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS AFT 10/13Z.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT
TROPICAL WAVE ON FRIDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL APPROACH 7 FEET FRIDAY
NIGHT IN THE NORTHERN LOCAL OUTER WATERS AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY. GUSTS IN THE TROPICAL WAVE COULD
EXCEED 30 KNOTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 6 FEET AND WINDS WILL RELAX LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 80 89 77 / 20 40 40 70
STT 91 80 89 80 / 20 30 40 70

[cycloneye]

2 PM:

A tropical wave near the west coast of Africa is producing some
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some slow
development of this wave is possible during the next several days
while it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic at about 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM HENRI IS CENTERED NEAR 32.6N 60.8W AT 10/1500 UTC
OR ABOUT 205 NM E OF BERMUDA MOVING N AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35
KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
29N TO 35N BETWEEN 54W AND 61W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS EMERGING OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA TODAY WITH
AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 18N15W TO 09N15W. A MODERATE SURGE OF
MOISTURE IS INDICATED IN SSMI TPW SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES AHEAD OF
THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 18N
BETWEEN THE AFRICAN COAST AND 22W.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
402 PM AST THU SEP 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THROUGH TONIGHT
AS AN AMPLIFY UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
JUST WEST OF THE REGION. TROUGH PATTERN ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH
REMNANTS OF GRACE TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS
OBSERVED ACROSS THE ISLANDS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...THE DOPPLER
RADAR ESTIMATED THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN LAS MARIAS...ANASCO...
RINCON AND AGUADA. AROUND 2 TO 3 INCHES HAVE BEEN ESTIMATED SO FAR
ALONG RIO GRANDE DE ANASCO BASIN. FOR THIS EVENING...SOME MOISTURE
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION...ENOUGH TO KEEP THE ISOLATED SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST.

A TROPICAL WAVE JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WEST OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THE REST OF TODAY. THEN...THE
REMNANTS GRACE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE USVI ON FRIDAY MORNING
AND OVER PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS A RESULT...
EXPECT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE ON FRIDAY AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES AS DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
STILL APPEARS THAT WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS DRIER AND
STABLE AIR ADVECTS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA/TSRA INTERIOR TO WEST PR AND FEW OBSCD MTNS
ENDING BY 22Z. OTHW ISOLD/SCT SHRA TONITE INCR FRI IN REMNANTS OF TS
GRACE. NMRS SHRA/TSRA INTERIOR AND WEST PR FRI AFT INCR REGIONWIDE
FRI NITE. WIND BLW FL100 E-SE 12-16 KT BCMG E 12-20 KT BY LATE
AFT/EVE INCR 15-25 KT LATE FRI...THEN BCMG SE 20-30 KT FRI NITE.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF REMNANTS OF
GRACE ON FRIDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL APPROACH 7 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT
IN THE NORTHERN LOCAL OUTER WATERS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY
BE NECESSARY. GUSTS IN THE TROPICAL WAVE COULD EXCEED 30 KNOTS IN
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET AND WINDS
WILL RELAX LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 89 77 90 / 40 40 70 50
STT 80 89 80 88 / 30 40 70 70

[msbee]

I m hoping we all get some much needed rain but to my untrained eye it looks like most of the convection is going more north of the islands. can anyone confirm?

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

A tropical wave located near the coast of Africa continues to
produce disorganized shower activity. Some slow development of this
wave is possible during the next several days while it moves
westward across the tropical Atlantic at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
538 AM AST FRI SEP 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH WILL PERSIST JUST WEST
OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE
WEST BY A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC
THAT WILL EDGE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEK...BUT THE CENTER OF WHICH WILL NOT REACH THE FORECAST AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...WEAK GRADIENTS WILL PERSIST WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUING IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS
OR NEAR THE FLORIDA STRAIT. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE REMNANTS OF GRACE IN AN OPEN
WAVE. DRY AIR RETURNS UNTIL A TROPICAL WAVE ON TUESDAY BRINGS
ANOTHER BAND OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. THEN MOISTURE REMAINS
AROUND 50 PERCENT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC THROUGH MONDAY. IT WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IT IS
REFRESHED BY A NEW HIGH EMERGING OUT OF EASTERN CANADA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...REACHING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY AND SATURDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE...WITH THE BEST MOISTURE
ENDING SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA ON TUESDAY AND GOOD MOISTURE CONTINUES ON AND OFF. TRADE
WINDS WILL VARY PROPORTIONAL TO THE STRENGTH OF THE FOREMENTIONED
HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS DRIFTED BY IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS
OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES OVER LAND. HOWEVER A BAND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVED INTO THE EASTERN EXTREME OF THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER 3 AM AST AND PASSED OVER THE ISLANDS OF SAINT
JOHN...SAINT CROIX AND SAINT THOMAS BY 5 AM AST. THIS WILL BE THE
FORERUNNER OF THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE THAT HAS PROVED
TO BE ACTIVE AS IT MOVED AT ABOUT 23 KNOTS INTO THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. LIGHTNING
DETECTORS SHOWED GOOD ACTIVITY AS IT LEFT THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EARLIER LAST NIGHT...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL OF THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. MOST
OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE SATURDAY
EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK IN THEIR TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN...BUT EXPECT ENHANCED
ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY WHEN ANOTHER WAVE PASSES THROUGH. THE GFS IS
SHOWING A WIND SURGE MOVING OFF OF THE AFRICAN CONTINENT LAST
NIGHT THAT DEVELOPS INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER AT PRESENT THE GFS ALSO MOVES IT ABRUPTLY NORTH
LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE IT CAN GET TO 60 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
ASSOCIATED TO TS GRACE REMNANTS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS TNCM/TKPK/TIST/TISX/TJSJ DURING
THE MORNING. SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE MORNING
HRS AND THEN WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR.
MTNS OBSCD...LOW CEILING AND MVFR DUE TO SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED OVER
MOST OF THE TAF SITES. SFC WIND AT 5 TO 10 KT...THEN BCMG 10-20 KT
WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...AS THUNDERSTORMS BRING GUSTY WINDS DOWN FROM THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHERE 20 TO 30 KNOTS OF EASTERLY WINDS
HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO COME UP.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THESE WINDS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CREATE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE LOCAL WATERS. WHILE
ACTIVITY WAS STRONGER LAST NIGHT AND PASSING BY A BUOY IN THE FAR
WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...THAT BUOY FELL JUST INCHES SHORT OF
FINDING 7 FOOT SEAS. LOCAL WATERS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MORE
PROTECTED BUT GUSTY WINDS IN THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HIGHER SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 77 90 78 / 60 80 70 40
STT 90 80 88 80 / 70 80 60 30