Caribbean - Central America Weather

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
330 PM AST SUN SEP 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT
SOUTHEAST FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. IT
WILL PASS SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO THURSDAY AND THEN BECOME ABSORBED
INTO A STRONGER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL DISSIPATE ON MONDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE WILL PINCH OFF OF A DEEP LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL ONLY COME WITHIN 500 MILES OF
THE LOCAL AREA BEFORE DISSIPATING. MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
DRY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK EXCEPT FOR BRIEF INTRUSIONS BY LOCAL
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOONS.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A BAND OF MOISTURE FROM AN OLD UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND PASS INTO
PUERTO RICO MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE BETTER
THAN TODAY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...MOISTURE AMOUNTS ARE
LIMITED...ESPECIALLY AT MID LEVELS...AND THIS SHOULD MODERATE
MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED ALONG AN AXIS OF ACTIVITY
FROM JUST INLAND FROM MAYAGUEZ TO ACROSS ADJUNTAS THAT HAS
MANIFESTED ITSELF FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS TODAY WILL
BE WEAKER AND MORE SHORT-LIVED THAN ANY DAY LAST WEEK. DRY AIR
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE LUNAR ECLIPSE TONIGHT AND IT SHOULD BE
HIGH IN THE SKY AT ITS PEAK TOTALITY AT 2247L TONIGHT. A BAND OF
MOISTURE NOW ORIENTED NEARLY NORTH AND SOUTH ALONG 63.3 DEGREES
WEST LONGITUDE WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD NOT REACH EASTERN PUERTO RICO UNTIL AFTER
28/12Z. IT WILL BE WELL INTO WESTERN PUERTO RICO BY 29/00Z AND
SHOULD TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS THAN SEEN OVER THE WEEKEND.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE MODERATED BY DIMINISHING INSTABILITY
AS LIFTED INDICES RISE FROM AROUND MINUS 6 TO MORE THAN MINUS 3
DURING THE WEEK AND MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER...WOBBLES AROUND
THE 1.5 INCH VALUE UNTIL SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER
THAT BRINGING A HOPE FOR BETTER RAINFALL.

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM IDA ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE WESTWARD. BY THURSDAY THEY SHOULD PASS WELL
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. LITTLE EFFECT WILL BE SEEN EXCEPT THAT THIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIELD THE AREA FROM HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THIS WILL KEEP THE TRADE WINDS
VERY WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH
BRIEF MVFR MAY BE EXPERIENCED AT TNCM AND TKPK BTWN 28/06 AND
28/14Z. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT
EASTERLY FM FL030 TO FL100. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR FL400 AND
WILL REACH 40 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT MORE SHRA/TSRA WITH
SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS AFT 28/16Z IN PR.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL GENERALLY REACH A MINIMUM TONIGHT AND THEN
INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE MONTH TO JUST UNDER SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS. NEVERTHELESS...MOST SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 5
FEET THIS WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 91 78 90 / 10 20 30 30
STT 80 90 78 90 / 10 20 30 30

&&

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
502 AM AST MON SEP 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
UPPER TROUGH IS TO THEN SLOWLY RETROGRESS WESTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AND LOCAL FORECAST AREAS BY WEDNESDAY AND
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WORKWEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECT
THE FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
PROMOTING OVERALL STABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
IN THE LOW LEVELS.. NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... AND ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN FAIRLY LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS TO REESTABLISH NORTH OF THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION... LIMITED OR NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS ANTICIPATED OR PRESENTLY NOTED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THEREFORE...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...WITH
ONLY SOME LOCALLY AND DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE
FORM MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY LIGHT EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON
SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ADJACENT ISLANDS...INCLUDING
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. BY WEDNESDAY...AND FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WORKWEEK...AS TUTT SWINGS FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE REGION ...EXPECT
THE CAP INVERSION TO WEAKEN. THIS ALONG WITH SURGE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE EASTERLIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCE OF SOME
ENHANCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DO NOT SUGGEST WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SO
FOR NOW... MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
ISLANDS WITH SOME LOCALIZED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS WITH VCSH ACROSS
TIST AND TISX. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AFTER 28/16Z ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...POSSIBLY CAUSING VCSH/VCTS FOR
TJBQ AND TJMZ. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING...
BECOMING MOSTLY EASTERLY AFTER 28/14Z AT AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS AND HIGHER GUSTS IN AND NEAR SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS SLIGHTLY INCREASING UP TO 5 FEET BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
DUE TO A SMALL NORTHERLY SWELL...WITH TRADE WINDS REMAINING BETWEEN
5 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 80 92 79 / 20 30 30 20
STT 89 80 90 78 / 20 30 30 40

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
526 AM AST TUE SEP 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TUTT CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. RECENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SUGGESTS REGION REMAINS ON SUBSIDENT SIDE OF TUTT. THIS
WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE TO LIMIT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION. IN THE LOW LEVEL...THE INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL STORM
JOAQUIN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND ATLANTIC HIGH PULLING
FURTHER NORTHWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...WILL MAINTAIN A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND THUS LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BOTH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE BLENDED
PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SUGGEST A MOSTLY DRY AIR MASS AND
STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW BRIEF LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS
NOTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOME OF
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN OF PUERTO RICO. THE TUTT IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS THEN
MEANDER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THEREAFTER... IT WILL BEGIN TO FILL ON SATURDAY AND OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT AND SPREADS
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT DUE TO
THE LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT... IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE ATLANTIC
HIGH LIFTING NORTHWARD..AND TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN MOVING ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THESE CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR FAIRLY STRONG
SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE IN SOME AREAS...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND THE
WEST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ....WITH MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING PRECIPITABLE WATER DECREASING TO BELOW 1.50 INCHES
THROUGH FRIDAY ...THEN SLIGHTLY INCREASING ONCE AGAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND. UNDER STABLE CONDITIONS AND THE INFLUENCE OF OVERALL DRY
AIR MASS...ANY CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE OF SHORT
DURATION AND NOT WIDESPREAD. SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THEREFORE EXPECT ONLY SHORT LIVED LOCALLY AND
DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
TJMZ AND TJBQ FROM 29/17Z THROUGH 29/22Z IN SHRA/TSRA. ESE WINDS 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AFTER 29/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL TO MODERATE NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN SEAS OF 3-5
FEET MAINLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. SEAS
WILL AGAIN SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FEET ONCE AGAIN BY THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 78 92 79 / 20 20 30 20
STT 90 79 90 80 / 20 40 40 30

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST TUE SEP 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TUTT OVER EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AT LEAST
UNTIL FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD FROM THE
WEST INTO THE REGION. IN THE LOW LEVEL...THE INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL
STORM JOAQUIN AND THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PUERTO RICO...HOWEVER UNDER THE CONVERGENCE ALOFT...ANY
ACTIVITY IF ANY WILL BE SHORT AND BRIEF. IN ADDITION...THE
INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN AND THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH MAX VALUES IN THE 90S ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS.

IN THE LONG TERM...DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG CAP INVERSION
ACROSS THE ISLANDS ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST UNTIL THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. ALSO...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAILED DURING THE ENTIRE WEEK DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL WINDS THAT
WILL BE VEERING FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH. THEREFORE...AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...IF ANY WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL
AND ALONG THE NORTH AND WEST COAST.

THE BEST SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AFTER SATURDAY WHEN THE
DYNAMICS IMPROVE AND LESS STABLE CONDITIONS MAY HELP FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
JMZ/JBQ AND JSJ THROUGH 29/22Z. ESE WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL TO MODERATE NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN SEAS OF 3-5
FEET MAINLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES.
SEAS WILL AGAIN SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FEET ONCE AGAIN AFTER THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 93 79 93 / 20 20 20 20
STT 80 89 80 89 / 20 30 30 30

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
455 AM AST WED SEP 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A TUTT LOW OVER EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD FROM THE WEST INTO THE REGION DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...THE INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL
STORM JOAQUIN AND THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED OVER LAND
AREAS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING AS A STRONG CAP INVERSION
REMAINS AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CLOSE THE REGION IN AN UNFAVORABLE POSITION TO INDUCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE
LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE EACH DAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND LOCAL EFFECTS
TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY ACROSS NORTHWEST AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO
EACH AFTERNOON. THE LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW PRODUCED BY THE COMBINATION OF TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN...WELL
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA AND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO
RICO. NOT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVEN IS IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL
ISLANDS IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PRD. BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS WILL BE PSBL DUE TO
SCT SHRA/TSRA DVLPMNT IN AND AROUND TJMZ/TJBQ BTWN 30/18-30/22Z. SFC
WND LGT/VRB TIL 30/14Z ...BCM FM ESE WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS EXCEPT FOR
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS ALG COASTS WITH OCNL HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS BLO
FL200 MAINLY LGT FM SE 5-10 KTS...INCR W/HT ABV TO MAX WND AROUND 70
KTS FM NE. NO OTHER SIG OPERATIONAL IMPACTS ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A NORTHEASTERLY
SWELL WHICH COULD AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 80 93 80 / 20 20 20 20
STT 89 81 89 83 / 30 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
250 PM AST WED SEP 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED
TO BE ABSORBED BY THE BROAD TROUGH NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THIS BROAD TROUGH WEAKENS EARLY THIS
WEEKEND...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD FROM THE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. HURRICANE JOAQUIN IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
WILL HELP MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TODAY. NO SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED OVER THE AREA SO FAR.
COASTAL TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S UNDER A SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW.

FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTVITY...
UNDER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WARM TO HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS A SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TO MID 90S EXPECTED
EACH DAY ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES. A MOIST ADVECTIVE PATTERN IS
THEN EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH BUILDING RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A LACK OF FORCING...A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED EACH DAY
ASSOCIATED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PRD. BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS WILL BE PSBL DUE TO
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA DVLPMNT IN AND AROUND TJMZ/TJBQ THRU 22Z. ESE WINDS
10 TO 15 KNOTS EXCEPT FOR SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS ALG COASTS WITH OCNL
HIGHER GUSTS. NO OTHER SIG OPERATIONAL IMPACTS ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE NNE SWELL OF 4-6 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. LARGE BREAKING WAVES
ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES HAVE MAINTAINED THE HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR MOST OF THE BEACHES ALONG NORTH PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 93 80 92 / 0 20 0 20
STT 81 90 81 89 / 20 20 10 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
358 AM AST THU OCT 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. AS
THIS TROUGH WEAKENS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD FROM
THE WEST INTO THE REGION DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE BROAD
CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED ONLY FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SURROUNDING WATERS...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING AS A STRONG CAP INVERSION EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION AT LEAST UNTIL THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE
THE REGION IN AN UNFAVORABLE POSITION FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE LIMITED MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE EACH DAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
TO THE NORTH OF CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO EACH
AFTERNOON.

THE LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN...WELL NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA...WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO
RICO WHERE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
90S. AS HURRICANE JOAQUIN MOVES FURTHER NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MOIST WITH BETTER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PD. AFT 01/16Z BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS WILL BE
PSBL DUE TO ISOLD SHRA/TSRA DVLPG OVR PR TILL 01/22Z. SSE WINDS 5 TO
15 KNOTS EXCEPT FOR SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS ALG COASTS WITH OCNL
HIGHER GUSTS. NO OTHER SIG OPERATIONAL IMPACTS ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL OF TO 4 TO 6 FEET WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES
TODAY. LARGE BREAKING WAVES ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES WILL
MAINTAIN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR MOST OF THE BEACHES
ALONG NORTH PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 96 79 95 79 / 0 0 20 30
STT 90 82 88 83 / 10 10 20 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
318 PM AST THU OCT 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TUTT OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL RELOCATE
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO BY FRIDAY...ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO POOL
OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
EASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEKEND. MAJOR HURRICANE JOAQUIN
LOCATED OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE A LONG FETCH
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EASTERLY WINDS WILL RETURN BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL OF HURRICANE
JOAQUIN HAVE BEEN STREAMING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. MOST OF
THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN AFFECTING THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE REGIONAL
WATERS. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REACH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO.
THE MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAVE INHIBITED THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE SEA BREEZE AND THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE ISLAND TODAY. HOWEVER...THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
HAVE RESULTED IN HOT TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLANDS. THE
THERMOMETER REACHED 95 DEGREES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT THE LUIS
MUNOZ MARIN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL START TO SURGE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WEAKENS
AND RELOCATE NORTH OF THE REGION. INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...EXPECT A WETTER PATTERN TO ESTABLISH ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PD...WITH SOME SHORT PDS OF VCSH. BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND MTN TOP
OBSCURATIONS WILL BE PSBL DUE TO ISOLD SHRA/TSRA DVLPG OVR PR THRU
01/22Z. SSE WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH OCNL HIGHER GUSTS...SOME SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS ALG COASTS.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL OF TO 4 TO 6 FEET GENERATED
BY HURRICANE JOAQUIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TODAY. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF MODERATE NNW SWELL
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BREAKING WAVES ALONG THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR MOST OF THE
BEACHES ALONG NORTH PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 95 79 96 / 0 20 30 40
STT 82 88 83 88 / 10 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
549 AM AST FRI OCT 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA WILL BREAK OFF AND MOVE WEST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. BY MONDAY A RELATIVELY STRONG RIDGE WILL
HAVE FORMED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS HISPANIOLA. FROM MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND WEAKEN WHILE ANOTHER WEAK LOW MOVES FROM
EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO OVER SAINT JOHN. AFTER THIS TUESDAY
WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC
WILL DRIFT WEST AND NORTH THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY UNTIL IT DOMINATES
THE LATITUDES BETWEEN 20 AND 30 NORTH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
MOISTURE WILL STREAM OUT OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST
AND PASS OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. MOISTURE DIMINISHES
SLIGHTLY LATER NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM IDA ARE NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA. MAJOR HURRICANE JOAQUIN IS OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EAST OF THE
CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL HOLD SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA.
AFTER MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
FROM EASTERN CANADA FORCING A RIDGE OVER THE AREA OUT OF THAT
HIGH. THAT RIDGE WILL SHIFT NORTH AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. WINDS
WILL TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE PROCESS. MOISTURE INCREASES
TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY FAVORABLE SATURDAY. TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL ALSO BE SOMEWHAT MOIST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WERE ISOLATED OVERNIGHT BUT MANAGED TO
DAMPEN MUCH OF THE THE SOUTH AND EAST COASTS OF PUERTO RICO. NO
SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
ALTHOUGH A FEW APPROACHED FROM SOUTH OF SAINT CROIX. A PLUME OF
MOISTURE WILL FORM FROM SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT OF SOUTH AMERICA
GENERATED BY MAJOR HURRICANE JOAQUIN AND THE MOISTURE THAT HAS
BEEN MOVING NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN BOUNDARY OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO OVER 2
INCHES TONIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND REMAIN ABOVE AT LEAST
1.9 INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. STABILITY...HOWEVER INCREASES
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN MOVES IN A RANGE THROUGH MID
WEEK NEXT WEEK. ALSO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE SUCH THAT LITTLE IF
ANY STRONG DIVERGENCE IS CREATED OVER LAND AREAS DURING THIS MOIST
EPISODE. THIS WILL BE NEITHER FAVORABLE TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN
OR THUNDERSTORMS BUT MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
GENERATE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN EVERYWHERE IN THE AREA IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DRIFT OVER THE
ATLANTIC FROM PUERTO RICO AND CONTINUE SOME TIME INTO EACH NIGHT.
MOISTURE THEN DIMINISHES A LITTLE AND INSTABILITY RISES SOME
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL STILL ALLOW SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO POP UP EACH DAY THROUGH
SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. -SHRA OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS COULD
CREATE BRIEF VCSH ACROSS THE LEEWARD...USVI AND SOUTHERN PR
TERMINALS. AFTER 02/16Z SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY TO THE
SOUTH AND OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. AS A RESULT...BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TJPS...TJMZ...TJSJ AND TISX UNTIL
02/22Z. A S TO SW WIND FLOW AT 5 TO 10 KTS IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL...INCREASING A 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM IDA CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SEAS WILL NOT SUBSIDE SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL
SUNDAY IN THE ATLANTIC. RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS IN THE
CARIBBEAN WILL ROUGHEN SOMEWHAT NOW THROUGH TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED...MARINERS MAY
NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION IN SOME AREAS AS WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 95 78 93 77 / 30 50 50 30
STT 88 81 88 78 / 40 50 50 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
545 AM AST SAT OCT 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ALLOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND OVER
HISPANIOLA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT BACK ACROSS
PUERTO RICO ON TUESDAY. A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA LATER NEXT WEEK...BUT HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE
DOMINANT INFLUENCE.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CARIBBEAN FROM
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AS MAJOR HURRICANE JOAQUIN MOVES NORTHEAST
AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. A PLUME OF MOISTURE PRESENT OVER THE AREA
AT MID LEVELS WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT
FRINGES OF THE AREA OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS UNTIL MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

AT LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE FLOWING FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST INTO
JOAQUIN WILL PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY
ALTERNATING PATCHES OF DRIER AIR AND MODEST MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST WHEN FLOW TURNS. AS JOAQUIN MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM THE AREA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AFTER
SUNDAY AND WEST ACROSS THE WATERS TO OUR NORTH BEGINNING
MONDAY...ALLOWING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING INTO
PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EARLIER
DURING THE NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS PASSED THROUGH SAINT
CROIX JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND THEN MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDED FOR
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE CLIMBED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE
LAST 24 HOURS. THE GFS HAS SUGGESTED THAT THE LIFTED INDEX WILL
REACH ITS HIGHEST VALUE DURING THE DAY TODAY...OSTENSIBLY BECAUSE
TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB ARE RISING. THIS WILL COUNTERACT THE EFFECT
OF THE 850 MB MOISTURE WHICH WILL BE BEST AT 03/18Z OVER THE SOUTH
COAST THAN AT ANY TIME NEXT WEEK. ALSO MID CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE
THE SUNSHINE OVER THE AREA CAUSING OVERALL PRECIPITATION TO BE
LESS CONVECTIVE AND LESS WIDESPREAD THAN OTHERWISE MIGHT HAVE BEEN
EXPECTED WITH GOOD MOISTURE IN FLOW STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WAS ALSO THE REASON THAT WE HAVE HELD THE TEMPERATURE SEVERAL
DEGREES UNDER THE 94 DEGREES THAT MOS WAS FORECASTING FOR SAN
JUAN TODAY AND THE 95 DEGREES IT WAS HERALDING FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THE HIGH SATURDAY WAS ALSO AFFECTED AND CAME IN TWO
DEGREES UNDER THE HIGH THAT MOST FORECAST AT 93 DEGREES.

AFTER MONDAY...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODEST OVER THE AREA
UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN A TROPICAL WAVE SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...UNDER THE PREVAILING SOUTH WIND FLOW...SHRA/TSRA ARE
STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL
OF PR...ST CROIX AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
AS A RESULT...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
TJPS/TISX/TNCM/TKPK. SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING HRS.
A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AT 5 TO 15 KT AND LOCALLY HIGHER
IN/NEAR SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...INCREASING AT 10 TO 20
KTS AFTER 03/16Z. EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS TO INCREASE AFT
03/16Z.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE RISEN SOMEWHAT DURING THE LAST 48
HOURS. THEY WERE OVER 7 FEET AND 18 KNOTS AT THE OUTER BUOY AND
ALMOST 6 FEET AND 20 KNOTS IN THE LOCAL OUTER WATERS. THE INNER
BUOY AT SAN JUAN WAS ONLY READING 3 FEET OWING TO A SHADOWING
EFFECT FROM SOUTH WINDS. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD ABATE AND REACH AN
INTERIM MINIMUM ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 80 93 79 / 30 20 40 30
STT 88 77 88 81 / 50 40 50 40

[Gustywind]

Missed landing in Guadeloupe at the aerodrome of Les Saintes. Unhopefully no fatalites and injuries reported.

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 342011.php

TERRE-DE-HAUT. Saturday, in mid-morning, a driver missed his landing on the aerodrome. The aircraft arrived at the end of the runway and came to rest against the equipment provided for this purpose. The pilot and his three passengers were uninjured, the apparatus has been damaged at the level of the propeller. The air transport gendarmerie brigade is made on the spot to investigate.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
308 PM AST SAT OCT 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE
SOUTHWEST OVER EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAJOR
HURRICANE JOAQUIN LOCATED OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE
A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP TO ADVECT DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. EASTERLY WINDS WILL RETURN BY MIDWEEK
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO
INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. THE MOST INTENSE
RAINFALL SO FAR TODAY OCCURRED OVER SAINT THOMAS WHERE RAIN GAGES
MEASURED RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES ESPECIALLY
OVER THE CYRIL KING AIRPORT. OTHER AREAS OF ST. JOHN AND THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF PR RECEIVED BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE
THIS MORNING. HOT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLANDS TODAY. THE THERMOMETER REACHED 93
DEGREES ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AT THE LUIS MUNOZ MARIN
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE THE REST OF TODAY AND
TONIGHT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVECT OVER THE
ISLANDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. LOCAL HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR TONIGHT OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A FEW
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. ON SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL MOST
OF THE DAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS GRADUALLY DECREASING BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THEN...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING
THE WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES
THE LOCAL AREA. OVERALL...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY...
BECOMING DRIER AND MORE STABLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. EASTERLIES
WILL RETURN AGAIN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN
TYPICAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN PR THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...UNDER THE PREVAILING S WIND FLOW...SHRA/TSRA ARE STILL
EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR...AS WELL AS
THE USVI. AS A RESULT...PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. A S TO SE WIND FLOW AT 10 TO 15 KT AND LOCALLY HIGHER
IN/NEAR SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...PULSES OF MODERATE NNW SWELL OF 4-6 FEET WILL REACH THE
ATLANTIC WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF
NORTHERN SWELLS WILL REACH THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS MAJOR HURRICANE
JOAQUIN MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 93 79 93 / 20 40 30 20
STT 77 88 81 89 / 20 50 40 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
556 AM AST SUN OCT 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE
CARIBBEAN AND A RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH WILL DIG
INTO HISPANIOLA LATE THIS WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE MOVES
NORTH DURING THE WEEK...CROSSING PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS ON MONDAY. MODERATELY GOOD MOISTURE AT MID LEVELS
CONTINUES THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HURRICANE JOAQUIN CARRIES THE LOW PRESENTLY EAST
OF IT AND LOW PRESSURE TO ITS WEST NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM PUERTO
RICO. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO FORM IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS PUERTO RICO DURING THE NIGHT. SOME AREAS
RECEIVED UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACCORDING TO NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR. BURSTS OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE
ALSO OBSERVED AS THUNDERSTORMS FORMED OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO AND PUSHED INLAND.

THE MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWS VERY GOOD MOISTURE PUSHING UP FROM SOUTH
AMERICA...BUT AN AREA OF WEAKER MOISTURE HAS INVADED THE SOUTHEAST
QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS SHOWED GENEROUS MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AT 850 MB...BUT WITH A LIFTED INDEX
RISING TO ALMOST MINUS 3. THE NAM5 MODEL HAD POPS DIMINISHING
DURING THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ALL LAND AREAS IN THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE HIGH HAVE BUMPED THE POPS
UP OVER WHAT THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING...BUT THIS WILL STILL
REPRESENT A DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES FROM SATURDAY. AMOUNTS IN
GENERAL SHOULD BE LESS...BUT STABILITY FORECASTS BY THE MODEL MAY
NOT BE ACCURATE AND EXPECT THAT SCATTERED AREAS WILL SEE
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING BY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS WILL BE A LITTLE DRIER OVERNIGHT...BUT MONDAY ACTUALLY
LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A FILAMENT OF
GOOD MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. ON
WEDNESDAY THE GFS IS SHOWING THE GENESIS OF A TROUGH OVER THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THAT BRINGS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY. THE GFS SHOWS A TROPICAL WAVE SPAWNING A WEAK TROPICAL
STORM NEAR 20 NORTH AND 60 WEST ON THURSDAY WITH A TAIL OF
MOISTURE EXTENDING ACROSS PUERTO RICO BY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
DEPICTED TROPICAL STORM MOVES NORTH...AGAIN AVOIDING THE LOCAL
AREA. THE GFS SUGGESTED A SIMILAR SITUATION SEVERAL DAYS AGO...BUT
DROPPED IT. HENCE CANNOT PUT TOO MUCH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL
DEVELOP...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING. DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND LOWER AND MID LEVELS.

MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING A LITTLE HIGH WITH THE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. TODAY IT IS FORECASTING 96
DEGREES IN SAN JUAN WHERE YESTERDAY THE TEMPERATURE REACHED ONLY
93. ALTHOUGH THIS SEEMS TOO HIGH FOR THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED...HAVE DECIDED TO GO UP TO 94 TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS RAIN
TODAY. TEMPERATURES IN GENERAL HAVE BEEN RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL
SINCE THE LAST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.


&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR. AS A RESULT...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS TJPS EARLY IN THE MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SLOPES
OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND SOUTHER USVI. MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS. EXPECT A S TO SE
WIND FLOW AT 5 TO 15 KT INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KT AFT 04/12Z AND
LOCALLY HIGHER IN/NEAR SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL DIMINISH SOME TODAY AND MONDAY. ON TUESDAY
SOME SWELL WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE FROM HURRICANE JOAQUIN...BUT SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 6 FEET IN GENERAL WITH OCCASIONAL SEAS UP TO
8 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...BUT REMAIN POSSIBLE DUE TO SWELL FROM JOAQUIN ARRIVING AFTER
MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK OVER THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 94 79 93 78 / 30 40 40 20
STT 88 81 89 79 / 30 40 40 30

[cycloneye]

8 AM Tropical Weather Outlook:

A broad low pressure area located several hundred miles southwest
of the Cape Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are not particularly
conducive for tropical cyclone formation and any development of this
system should be slow to occur during the next several days while it
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
234 PM AST SUN OCT 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE
SOUTHWEST OVER EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH MIDWEEK. HURRICANE JOAQUIN
LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE A SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. EASTERLY WINDS WILL
RETURN BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. RELATIVELY STABLE CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS THAT YESTERDAY HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY. ALTHOUGH SOME MID-UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS WAS STREAMING ACROSS THE ISLANDS THIS MORNING...
THE ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR AT LOW LEVELS HAS LIMITED CONSIDERABLY
THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
LITTLE OR NO RAINS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER PR AND USVI SO FAR
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INDUCE
HOT TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLANDS. THE THERMOMETER
REACHED 95 DEGREES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT THE LUIS MUNOZ MARIN
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 1994.

MOISTURE WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE LOCAL AREA. BASICALLY...
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLANDS WILL BE DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND
BREEZE CYCLE WITH THE TYPICAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY
OVER WESTERN PR. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF PR WILL
CONTINUE AROUND 93-95 DEGREES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS DOMINATES THE LOCAL REGION. THEN...EASTERLIES WILL
RETURN BY MIDWEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...
ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO DECREASE TO AROUND 88-92 DEGREES AT COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

A SURGE OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A
TROPICAL WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE THRU 04/22Z
SO SOME VCSH POSSIBLE. EXPECT S TO SW WIND FLOW AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
LOCALIZED GUSTS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE NNW SWELL REACHED THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THIS MORNING INCREASING THE SEAS TO 4-5 FEET.
ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL REACH THE ATLANTIC WATERS
AS HURRICANE JOAQUIN MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC.
SEAS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 3-5 FEET MOST OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 93 78 93 / 40 40 20 30
STT 81 89 79 90 / 40 40 30 30

[cycloneye]

8 PM

A broad low pressure area located about midway between the Cape
Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are not
particularly conducive for tropical cyclone formation, and any
development of this system should be slow to occur during the next
several days while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
553 AM AST MON OCT 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH MIDWEEK. HURRICANE
JOAQUIN LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE
A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL RETURN BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE CLOSE TO THE LOCAL
AREA BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH LITTLE OR NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVERLAND PREVAILED OVERNIGHT ACROSS ALL THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. SOME BRIEF SHOWERS WERE DETECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAINS OF PUERTO RICO...THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL...ST CROIX...ST THOMAS AND ST JOHN...BUT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE NOT SIGNIFICANT.

RELATIVELY STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT LEAST UNTIL MID WEEK
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE EAST OVER
THE CARIBBEAN. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS AND ANOTHER HOT AND MUGGY DAY IS EXPECTED MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE ISLAND...AS THE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW
CONTINUES AT LEAST UNTIL TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH...DRIER AND MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY...AFTERNOON CONVECTION
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. LATE TONIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST...AS A RESULT EXPECT ISOLATED AND
BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS OVER SECTIONS OF THE USVI AND EASTERN PR
MAINLY IN THE MORNING HOURS...WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE
INTERIOR AND NW QUADRANT OF PR EACH DAY UNTIL THE SURGE OF
MOISTURE ARRIVES.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF PR ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE AROUND 93-95 DEGREES TODAY AND TUESDAY AS SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE LOCAL REGION. THE RECORD MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE FOR TODAY IS 93 DEGREES AND UNDER THE PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW THE TEMPERATURE IS VERY LIKELY TO REACH OR
BEAT THE RECORD. THE COASTAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE TO AROUND 88-92 DEGREES BY MID WEEK AS THE EASTERLIES
RETURN TO THE LOCAL AREA.

THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. AS A RESULT THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES UNTIL 05/17Z.
AFT 05/17Z SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL DVLP...MAINLY OVER NW PR WITH PDS OF
MVFR AT TJMZ AND TJBQ TIL 05/22Z. MTN OBSCURATIONS AFT 05/16Z IN
PR. WINDS ALF S-SE 5 TO 15 KT UP THRU FL220...BCMG MORE SE AFT
05/18Z.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
DUE TO WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS. ELSEWHERE...MARINERS CAN
EXPECT WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 1 TO 5 FEET. WINDS
WILL TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BY LATE TONIGHT AND A NORTHERLY SWELL
AROUND 4 FEET IS FORECAST TO REACH THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE FIRST FOUR DAYS OF OCTOBER HAVE BEEN THE WARMEST
EVER ON RECORD AT SAN JUANS LUIS MUNOZ MARIN AIRPORT. THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE MEASURED THERE WAS 94 DEGREES. IN ADDITION...A RECORD
WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 83 DEGREES WAS RECORDED THERE
YESTERDAY...BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 80 SET IN 2009.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 96 80 93 79 / 20 10 20 10
STT 89 80 90 81 / 20 20 20 30

[msbee]

Good morning!
This was an article in our local newspaper today:

So far, just 34 per cent of normal rainfall in 2015
MONDAY, 05 OCTOBER 2015 00:53
PHILIPSBURG--Rainfall in September was once again below normal, making it the tenth consecutive month with below-normal rainfall.
September 2015 was the driest September since 1986, which had a total of 20.7 millimetres or 0.8 inches. This year has so far been the driest year on record, with a total of just 253.3 millimetres or 10 inches of rainfall since January, just 34 per cent compared to normal.
This was outlined in the St. Maarten Meteorological Department’s September newsletter.
The Caribbean Drought Monitoring Network has issued a drought warning for the Leeward Islands including St. Maarten until the end of 2015, the newsletter stated.
The total rainfall this September was 26.4 millimetres or 1.0 inch, compared to the September norm of 94.9 to 132.7 millimetres or 4 to 5 inches. It rained on four days, with one day having heavy rain.
The longest dry spell was 11 days, between September 20 and 30, and the warmest day of the month was September 30, with an average temperature of 29.7 degrees Celsius or 86 degrees Fahrenheit.
According to the Caribbean Outlook Forum, the precipitation outlook for the season October, November and December is expected to be below-to-near normal, with “normal” rainfall ranging from 307.2 to 499.3 millimetres or 12 to 20 inches. Temperature for most of the Caribbean is forecast to be near-normal to above-normal for the same period.

[abajan]

Getting afternoon thunderstorms here. The last few of claps of thunder were quite loud.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
334 PM AST MON OCT 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WEAKLY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH MIDWEEK.
HURRICANE JOAQUIN LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
TO INDUCE AN EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY. EASTERLY WINDS WILL RETURN LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE CLOSE TO
THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE DETECTED OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS
ACTIVITY DISSIPATES RAPIDLY LATE IN THE MORNING. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...THE LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...IN
COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS WILL INDUCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MOSTLY OVER INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKLY BUILD ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS...INDUCING STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. UNDER THESE RELATIVELY STABLE CONDITIONS...NOT
SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT LEAST UNTIL
MID WEEK. UNDER AN EAST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON MOSTLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO. AS HURRICANE
JOAQUIN MOVES FURTHER SOUTH...THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT MORE
FROM THE EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST BY LATE TUESDAY. AS THIS
HAPPENS...A TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PASSING SHOWERS OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLY IN THE MORNING...AND AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF PR EACH
AFTERNOON.

A TROPICAL WAVE...ALONG 45 WEST THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WEST NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS FEATURE
WILL REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY THURSDAY AND THE LOCAL
ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS A RESULT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION...UNTIL 5/22Z SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE DVLP...MAINLY
OVER NW PR WITH PDS OF MVFR AT TJMZ AND TJBQ TIL 05/22Z. MTN
OBSCURATIONS AFT 05/16Z IN PR. WINDS ALF S-SE 5 TO 15 KT UP THRU
FL220...BCMG MORE SE AFT 05/18Z.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
DUE TO WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS. ELSEWHERE...MARINERS CAN
EXPECT WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 1 TO 5 FEET. WINDS
WILL TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BY LATE TONIGHT AND A NORTHERLY SWELL
AROUND 4 FEET IS FORECAST TO REACH THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 93 79 93 / 10 20 10 30
STT 80 90 81 90 / 20 20 30 30