Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

By the way, exceptionnaly warm warm warm here, people are becoming crazy with these awfully high temperatures

[cycloneye]

By the way, exceptionnaly warm warm warm here, people are becoming crazy with these awfully high temperatures

And is October when normally is less warm.Here in PR many records of high temperatures have been broken so far this month.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
250 PM AST TUE OCT 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THRU THURSDAY. THEN
TUTT WILL ESTABLISH EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND MEANDER ALOFT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES MAINLY SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE
EASTERLIES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
PR...WHILE IT REMAINED MOSTLY DRY OVER THE USVI AS SHOWERS MOVED
QUICKLY ACROSS THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE ISLANDS. ONCE AGAIN BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
OVER SECTIONS OF WESTERN PR. THE DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED BETWEEN
1 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS ACROSS
AGUADA...ANASCO...LAS MARIAS AND RINCON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE
IN THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE COASTAL AND URBAN AREAS OF THE ISLANDS.

TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPECTED TO
BRING MORE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...IT WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS...FAVORING
MORNING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING MAINLY ST. CROIX AND THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF
PR...THEN ENHANCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR.

WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. AS RIDGE ALOFT FAVORS CAP INVERSION...WITH PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN HALF OF PR DURING THE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PERIOD AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS
ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. AS TUTT PATTERN EVOLVES BY THE
END OF THE WEEK...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE CONVERGENT
SIDE OF THE LOW...NOT FAVORING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE HIGH
80S TO LOW 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TJMZ AND TJBQ WHICH WILL
HAVE BRIEF MVFR CONDS AS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP IN THE GENERAL VCNTY BTWN
13/18Z AND 13/22Z AND AGAIN AFT 14/17Z. BRIEF SHRA CAUSING VCSH
ELSEWHERE DURING THE DAY. MTN OBSCURATIONS TIL 14/02Z IN PR.
EASTERLY SFC WINDS AT 10-20 KT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS DURING
THE DAY.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET. WNDS WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS IN THE 20S
DUE TO SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS DURING THE MID MORNING-MID AFTERNOON
PERIOD EACH DAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 79 91 79 / 50 30 30 30
STT 91 79 89 78 / 50 30 30 30

[tropicana]

Record Highs For San Juan PR and US Virgin Islands so far this October 2015

Sun Oct 4
San Juan PR 95F tied 1994


Mon Oct 5
St Croix VI 92F tied 1962
San Juan PR 95F


Tue Oct 6
St Croix VI 93F
San Juan PR 94F


Wed Oct 7
San Juan PR 92F tied 2007

**the last sub-90 degree day at San Juan PR was way back on September 23, that was 88F so that was no bargain either.

-justin-

[cycloneye]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
256 PM AST WED OCT 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND A CUT-OFF LOW EAST NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL MAINTAIN NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.
THEN A TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DIG INTO THE AREA PASSING THROUGH ON
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RETURN EVEN STRONGER NORTHERLY
FLOW.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL MOVE INTO
THE EASTERN CENTRAL ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IN THE
WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AND THEN JOIN WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH PASSING WELL TO THE
NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. RESIDUAL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE AREA AND THEN DEVELOP LATE NEXT WEEK. DRY AIR TAKES ON MODEST
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA TOMORROW...BUT THEN CONTINUES ONLY MODESTLY
MOIST UNTIL MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...THE TRADE WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND RETREATS TO
THE NORTHEAST. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH
THEN INTENSIFIES LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST GFS...WHICH DEVELOPS IT INTO A STRONG LOW AS IT MOVES
NORTH. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK IN
THE BACK FLOW AROUND THAT DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA ALLOWING
CONSIDERABLE WARMING AREA-WIDE. THE HIGH AT SAN JUAN REACHED 91
DEGREES AGAIN TODAY. ALTHOUGH CLEARLY IN A DRY SLOT...WITH
MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL WAVE THAT PASSED INTO THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO THE SOUTH...AND MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC TO THE
NORTH...CONVECTION WAS STILL ABLE TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST PUERTO
RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL WAS IN PROGRESS
AND TOPS WERE PUSHING PAST 35 KFT AS OF 1840Z THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IF THEY ARE NOT ALREADY IN
PROGRESS. MOISTURE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON THURSDAY AND ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE BETTER TOMORROW
AND FRIDAY AND IN MUCH THE SAME PLACES.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FRIDAY...HOLD THROUGH SATURDAY...DIMINISH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND THEN PEAK ON WEDNESDAY. THE LIFTED INDEX AS
FORECAST BY THE GFS SUGGESTS GOOD ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT INCREASING STABILITY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE CHANGES ARE SUBTLE. WOULD EXPECT
CONVECTION TO FAVOR HIGHER TERRAIN MORE AS WINDS BEGIN TO WEAKEN
THIS WEEK THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH VCSH POSSIBLE AT THE LEEWARD
AND USVI TERMINALS AS WELL AS TJSJ THIS EVENING. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION AND SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST AND
NORTHWEST PR UNTIL 14/23Z....RESULTING IN PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
S AT TJMZ/TJBQ. TJSJ MAY OBSERVE VCSH/VCTS UNTIL AT LEAST 14/22Z.
ESE SURFACE WINDS AT 10-15KT AND GUSTY UNTIL 14/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OF RINCON UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 79 90 / 30 30 20 20
STT 79 89 79 88 / 40 40 30 30

[cycloneye]

ISSUED 514 AM AST THU OCT 15 2015/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE IS PRESENT ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
AND AN UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN A
NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND WILL KEEP THE LOCAL AREA IN
THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL KEEP AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LIFT...RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAUSING A DECREASE IN
WIND SPEED OVER THE LOCAL AREA.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND SOME OF THE SHOWERS BRIEFLY AFFECTED THE
LOCAL ISLANDS...LEAVING MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS OF RAIN. MIMIC-TPW
IMAGES INDICATE THAT WE WILL HAVE ABOUT THE SAME AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN TODAY. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN LOCAL PATTERN. BRIEF PASSING
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR IS
WHAT IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OR THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA IN THE
AFTERNOONS AS WELL...BUT THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE INTERIOR AND WEST-
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PR.

UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST WILL KEEP A
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA IN THE UPPER LEVELS...KEEPING US
UNDER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. SO THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MIGHT
NOT BE AS LONG LASTING AS IF WE HAD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER
GIVEN THE NATURE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND THE EFFECT IT NORMALLY HAS
OVER PR...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL NOT BE RULED OUT IN
THE AFTERNOONS DURING THESE NEXT FEW DAYS.

A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT PATTERN FOR THE DAYS NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS DIMINISH. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
MAY LINGER OVER ANY ONE POINT FOR A BIT LONGER THAN WE HAVE
OBSERVED RECENTLY. IN ADDITION...SINCE THE STEERING WINDS WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT NEXT WEEK...THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS AFTERNOON
CONVECTION MAY SPREAD A BIT MORE EASTWARD THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED
FOR TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH VCSH POSSIBLE AT THE LEEWARD AND USVI TERMINALS AS
WELL AS JSJ THIS MORNING. MOUNTAIN OBSC AND SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR BTWN 15/16Z-
15/22Z....RESULTING IN PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS AT JMZ. EASTERLY SFC
WINDS AT 10-15KT AND GUSTY WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFT 15/12Z.

MARINE...WINDS WILL BE UP TO 16 KNOTS AND SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2
TO 4 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS MAY BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR THE SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 89 78 / 20 20 20 30
STT 89 78 88 78 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
307 PM AST THU OCT 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE IS PRESENT ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
AND AN UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN A
NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND WILL KEEP THE LOCAL AREA IN
THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL KEEP AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LIFT...RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAUSING A DECREASE IN
WIND SPEED OVER THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED THIS MORNING ACROSS
EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SHOWERS MOVED
QUICKLY. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WAS OBSERVED. EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON...AN AREA OF SHOWERS PERSISTED OVER SAINT
THOMAS...WERE RAINFALL ACCUMULATION RANGED FROM THREE QUARTERS TO
ONE INCH. MEANWHILE...HEAVY SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN SECTION OF PUERTO RICO.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...PASSING SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
EASTERN PUERTO RICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATES THE LOCAL REGION NEXT FEW DAYS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL KEEP AN EASTERLY WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LIFT...RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAUSING A
DECREASE IN WIND SPEED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
AT NORMALS VALUES THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...INCREASING ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS BY THIS TIME OF THE YEARS FROM MID WEEK TO THE LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND
SHRA OR TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO RESULTING
IN PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TJMZ UNTIL AT LEAST 15/22Z.
VCSH POSSIBLE AT THE LEEWARD AND USVI TERMINALS AS WELL AS TJSJ
OVERNIGHT. EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AT AROUND 10 KT OR LESS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 78 90 / 20 20 30 30
STT 78 88 78 88 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
519 AM AST FRI OCT 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT AND ASSOCIATED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE HIGH NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS WILL PROMOTE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OVER
THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SOME OF THEM
BRIEFLY AFFECTED THE LOCAL ISLANDS. WINDS WERE MAINLY FROM THE
EAST AT 10 MPH OR LESS WITH COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

TUTT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNDER TUTT PATTERN...A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
AREA STILL EXPECTED AT UPPER LEVELS...KEEPING US UNDER SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT. BUT MID LEVEL INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO RELAX...WITH
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOMING BIT BETTER FOR CONVECTION.
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATED AVAILABLE MOISTURE REMAINING NEAR
NORMAL VALUES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE.

THEREFORE EXPECT PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS IN THE
MORNING AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA TODAY...BUT OVER AND
NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEKEND...A BROAD TROUGH WILL THEN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE CARIBBEAN BRINGING
BETTER MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU MOST OF THE FCST
PERIOD. HOWEVER...VCSH DUE TO TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FM
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE USVI/EASTERN PR TERMINALS THRU
FRIDAY MORNING. BETWEEN 16/16Z-22Z...MTN TOP OBSC AND SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR
WITH MVFR CONDS IMPACTING MAINLY JMZ AND THE VCNTY OF JBQ. LOW
LEVEL EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10-15 KT...GUSTY WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS AFT 16/13Z.

&&

.MARINE.....FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WITH OVERALL WINDS AND SEAS OF 15 KNOTS OR
LESS AND 4 FEET OR LESS RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 81 90 81 / 30 20 20 20
STT 89 79 91 79 / 30 30 20 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
237 PM AST FRI OCT 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT AND ASSOCIATED LOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE HIGH NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS WILL PROMOTE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...THEN THE LOCAL WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE SURFACE HIGH
LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED TODAY ACROSS
MANY SECTORS IN PUERTO RICO. STARTING THE LATE MORNING HOURS
SHOWERS AFFECTING THE EASTERN THIRD OF PR AS WELL AS PORTION OF
THE SOUTHERN SLOPES. THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF PR. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE
LOCAL EFFECTS AND OVERALL INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CONCERNING THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

OVERALL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CONSTANT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.8 INCHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
OVERALL PATTERN IS ALSO NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH IN THE UPPER
LEVELS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WHICH MEANS THAT IT IS LIKELY THAT
THE WEATHER WILL BE SIMILAR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH PASSING
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING THEN AFTERNOON CONVECTION AFFECTING MAINLY
WESTERN AND NW-PR. THE REST OF THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD REMAIN WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS...AND THAT INCLUDES THE
USVI.

AFTER THIS WEEKEND...THE SURFACE HIGH IN THE ATLANTIC LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST...LEAVING US WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS AND ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO HELP DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PR.
THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...SO THE SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER ANY ONE POINT FOR A LITTLE BIT. IN
ADDITION...THIS MEANS THAT THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD MOVE A
BIT FURTHER EAST INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR. THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY IN THAT MATTER SO THE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED WITH
THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND MVFR CONDS STILL POSSIBLE
IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ THRU 21Z. VCSH EXPECTED OVER THE USVI
AND LEEWARD TERMINALS TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL EAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT 10-15 KT...GUSTY WINDS NEAR TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WITH OVERALL WINDS AND SEAS OF 15 KNOTS OR
LESS AND 4 FEET OR LESS RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 90 81 91 / 20 20 20 40
STT 79 91 79 92 / 30 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
535 AM AST SAT OCT 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE EAST
OF THE AREA GENERATING NORTHERLY FLOW. A TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER NEXT WEEK TO REVERSE THE FLOW.

AT MID LEVELS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES EAST OF THE AREA IN A
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA LATER NEXT WEEK AND MOVES NORTH. MID LEVELS HAVE MODEST
MOISTURE UNTIL LATER NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE THEN INCREASES.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN CENTRAL ATLANTIC
MOVES NORTHEAST ALLOWING A SECOND HIGH TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BY MONDAY...MAINTAINING EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS.
TROUGHINESS OVER CUBA AND HISPANIOLA BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED BY
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. THE CURRENT MODEL SOLUTION SHOWS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPING THURSDAY OR FRIDAY WHICH WOULD PULL UP COPIOUS
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH IF IT DEVELOPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE SEEN MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL
WATERS...SOME OF WHICH HAD HEAVY RAIN. ALTHOUGH NO LIGHTNING WAS
DETECTED...SOME TOPS EXCEEDED 40 KFT. THE CURRENT PATTERN HAS BEEN
FAVORABLE TO PASSING SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER PUERTO
RICO WITH A FEW ALSO MOVING THROUGH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS ABOVE 1.7 INCHES
EVEN ON THE DRIEST DAYS. THE MODEL HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
TEMPERATURES NOW THAT SHOWERS ARE MORE ABUNDANT AND THE WINDS ARE
MORE EASTERLY. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE...THOUGH THAT WILL NOT
MEAN RELIEF IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FROM THE LOW 90 DEGREE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE OCCURRED ON ALL BUT ONE DAY THIS
MONTH IN SAN JUAN.

THE GFS IS APPARENTLY NOT HANDLING THE SITUATION WITH THE
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WELL. THE 16/18Z RUN SHOWED
A COLD CORE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATER
NEXT WEEK. BUT WHEN THE 17/00Z RUN CAME IN...IT WAS DEVELOPING A
LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING TROUGH
THAT IT QUICKLY SPUN INTO A TROPICAL STORM AND MOVED NORTH WITH A
LEFT HOOK FAKE-OUT. THIS APPEARS TO BE A REASONABLE SCENARIO...AND
SHOULD IT DEVELOP...IT WILL BRING COPIOUS MOISTURE FROM SOUTH
AMERICA IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AT NEARLY ALL LEVELS BEGINNING THURSDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.
WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEK...BUT IT MUST BE UNDERSTOOD THAT THIS IS
VERY UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. NEVERTHELESS THE SOIL SATURATION WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS THAT HAVE
BEEN CROSSING PUERTO RICO. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AT THIS TIME THE SHOWERS THEY ARE
EXPERIENCING ARE NOT AS HEAVY AND HAVE BEEN PASSING IN NATURE. IF
LONG STREAMS OF CONVECTION DEVELOP IN SOUTHERLY FLOW NEXT WEEK HOWEVER
THEY COULD ALSO RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU MOST OF THE FCST
PERIOD. HOWEVER...-SHRA EMBEDDED IN TRADE WINDS WILL CREATE VCSH
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF RA BETWEEN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE
USVI/EASTERN PR TERMINALS THRU SATURDAY MORNING. BETWEEN 16Z-
22Z...MTN TOP OBSC AND SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND THE LUQUILLO RANGE WITH MVFR CONDS
IMPACTING MAINLY TJBQ/TJMZ. ALSO...VCTS AT TJSJ CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT. ESE WINDS AT 8-15 KT BELOW 10 KFT...NORTHERLY ABOVE AND
INCREASING WITH HEIGHT. SEA BREEZES AFT 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS GENERALLY DIMINISH THROUGH 20/00Z...MONDAY
NIGHT...AS WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. SOUTHERLY WINDS
LATER NEXT WEEK MEAN THAT SEAS WILL GROW SOMEWHAT IN THE
CARIBBEAN...BUT ATLANTIC WAVES MAY ALSO EMANATE FROM A POSSIBLE
TROPICAL STORM SHOULD IT DEVELOP. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 80 89 81 / 50 40 70 20
STT 88 79 88 80 / 60 60 70 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
221 PM AST SAT OCT 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO REMAIN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SURFACE HIGH WELL NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO IS
EXPECTED TO PROMOTE AN EAST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS FLOW THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN THE LOCAL WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE
SURFACE HIGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH FEW OF THEM
AFFECTING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. PWAT VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE
RANGE OF 1.80-2.00 INCHES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL. THIS MOISTURE IN
COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING...LOCAL EFFECTS AND OVERALL
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON...INITIALLY ALONG CORDILLERA CENTRAL
AND LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OVER INTERIOR...WESTERN AND NORTHWEST
PUERTO RICO. THEREFORE...IT IS LIKELY THAT THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIMILAR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH PASSING SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING THEN AFTERNOON CONVECTION AFFECTING MAINLY WESTERN...
INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC IS
EXPECTED TO LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...INDUCING A VERY LIGHT WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THUS...THE SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
REMAIN LONGER AT THE SAME AREA...AND UNDER THESE CIRCUMSTANCES THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING INCREASES. DURING THE NEXT WEEKEND A
LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE REGION...WILL DEVELOP INTO A LOW PRESSURE
JUST TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT ABUNDANT TROPICAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. AS THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE MOVES RAPIDLY
TO THE NORTHWEST...ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAINS ACROSS THE
REGION...PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATION AND SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL WITH PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ UNTIL AT LEAST 17/22Z.
VCTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS TJSJ UNTIL 17/20Z. AFTER
18/22Z...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH -SHRA EMBEDDED IN TRADE WINDS...PRODUCING VCSH
AND BRIEF PERIODS OF SHRA BETWEEN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE
USVI/EASTERN PR TERMINALS THRU SUNDAY MORNING. LATEST TJSJ
SOUNDING INDICATED A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW UP TO 10 KNOTS FROM
THE SURFACE TO AROUND 10K FEET...BECOMING NORTHERLY AND
STRONGER...UP TO 40 KNOTS...ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH NEXT WEEK. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 89 81 89 / 40 70 20 40
STT 79 88 80 88 / 60 70 50 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
618 AM AST SUN OCT 18 2015


SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN/ATLANTIC
WATERS THRU AT LEAST MID-WEEK. THEN...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED LOW WILL ESTABLISH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THEN WINDS WILL
DIMINISH LOCALLY AS THE SURFACE HIGH LIFTS FURTHER TO THE
NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.


.DISCUSSION...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAILED OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. PASSING SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED MAINLY OVER THE
WATERS WITH VERY FEW IF ANY AFFECTING COASTAL AREAS OF THE USVI
AND EASTERN PR. STEERING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TODAY AND
CONTINUE LIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK...TUTT WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE ISLANDS. THEN...THE
LOCAL AREA IS FORECAST TO BE DOMINATED BY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW...THIS WILL FAVOR DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE AREA.

IN GENERAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...DUE TO AVAILABLE MOISTURE
AND DIURNAL EFFECTS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAIN RANGES OF PR...AND WITH A
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING WIND FLOW...THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL AND INCREASE
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AS THEY WILL MOVE SLOW AND REMAIN
LONGER OVER THE SAME AREAS. DURING THE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
PERIOD...SHOWERS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY OVER THE WATERS WITH A FEW
REACHING THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. AS UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY MID-
WEEK...MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR MORE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A LARGE
AREA OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE REGION...WILL DEVELOP INTO A LOW PRESSURE
JUST TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...AS THE
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN
EVEN MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALREADY SATURATED SOILS
AND WILL KEEP HIGH THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES AND FLOODING ACROSS
MAINLAND PR.


&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU MOST OF THE FCST
PERIOD WITH SOME LIMITED VCSH. BETWEEN 16Z-22Z...MTN TOP OBSC AND
SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL WITH MVFR
CONDS IMPACTING MAINLY JBQ/JMZ. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVRNGHT
BCMG ESE WINDS AT 8-15 KT...WITH SEA BREEZES AFT 14Z.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS BELOW 3 FEET FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THEN
BY THE SECOND PART...A SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL IS FORECAST TO ENTER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS RAISING SEAS BETWEEN 4-6 FEET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 89 79 / 40 20 40 30
STT 88 79 88 78 / 50 40 40 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
241 PM AST SUN OCT 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN/ATLANTIC
WATERS THRU AT LEAST MID-WEEK. THEN...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED LOW WILL ESTABLISH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THEN WINDS WILL
DIMINISH LOCALLY AS THE SURFACE HIGH LIFTS FURTHER TO THE
NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
SOUTHERN SLOPES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATION RANGED FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES
IN SOME LOCALIZED AREAS. ONCE AGAIN...DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AT LOW LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCED
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WEATHER PATTERN
IS NOT EXPECT TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR AT MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HOWEVER..LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE REGION...WILL DEVELOP INTO A LOW
PRESSURE JUST TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW
WILL TRANSPORT ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...AS
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT
IN EVEN MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALREADY SATURATED
SOILS AND WILL KEEP HIGH THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES AND FLOODING
ACROSS MAINLAND PR. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS TJPS WITH VCSH/VCTS ACROSS TJSJ AND TJMZ UNTIL
18/22Z. AFTER 18/22Z MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE REST OF
THE FCST PERIOD WITH ONLY VCSH ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVRNGHT BCMG ESE WINDS AT 8-12 KT...WITH SEA BREEZES AFTER
19/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 79 89 / 20 40 30 30
STT 79 88 78 88 / 40 40 50 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
509 AM AST MON OCT 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
BETWEEN TWO SFC HIGHS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TUTT OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.DISCUSSION...IT WAS MOSTLY CLEAR OVER LAND AREAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS REMAINED OVER THE WATERS AS THEY SLOWLY
DRIFTED NORTH...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE
PAST FEW HOURS OVER THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS. SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SECTIONS OF THE USVI AND SOUTHEASTERN
PR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IN THE AFTERNOON...SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAIN RANGES OF
PR. THEY WILL REMAIN OR MOVE SLOW OVER THE SAME AREAS...CAUSING
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND FLOODING IN
SMALL STREAMS AND URBAN AREAS. MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...SIMILAR DIURNAL AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH DAY AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY
STEERING WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...AN UPPER TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED LOW ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE HISPANIOLA. THIS WILL TURN WINDS MORE FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AND WILL BRING MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THIS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL RESULT IN A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS THRU THE FCST PRD. SFC WND LGT/VRB TO
CALM TIL 19/13Z... FOLLOWED BY LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFT
19/14Z. LGT SOUTHERLY WND BLO FL100...BCMG FM N AND GRADUALLY INCR
TO 15-20 KTS ABV. LCL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL LEAD TO AFTN CONVTN
OVR PARTS OF W AND NRN HALF OF PR ALONG CORDILLERA CENTRAL...AND
VCTY TJSJ...TJPS...TJBQ...AND TJMZ FM 19/18Z-19/22Z WITH ISOLD
TSRA/BRIEF MVFR/IFR PSBL.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...A NW SWELL IS FORECAST TO REACH THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE...BUILDING THE SEAS UP TO 6 FEET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 89 77 / 40 20 20 20
STT 88 79 88 78 / 30 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
256 PM AST MON OCT 19 2015

SYNOPSIS...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
BETWEEN TWO SFC HIGHS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TUTT OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO
RICO. HEAVY SHOWERS SLOWLY MOVED EAST OVER THE SIERRA DE LUQUILLO
WITH RAINFALL ACCUMULATION FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES IN SOME LOCALIZED
AREAS. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS NOT EXPECT TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH
AT LEAST MID WEEK. ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTING
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AN UPPER TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED LOW
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE HISPANIOLA. THIS WILL TURN
WINDS MORE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND WILL BRING MORE
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THIS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN
COMBINATION WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL RESULT IN A
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS TJPS/TJMZ/TJSJ/TIST/TISX WITH VCSH/VCTS ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES BTWN 19/19-22Z. AFTER 19/23Z MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD WITH ONLY VCSH ACROSS TJSJ...AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE
MORNING. SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AT 8-12KT AND LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND
NEAR SHRA/TSRA AND WITH SEA BREEZES. BCMG FM E AFT 19/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WITH SEAS AT LESS THAN 4
FEET AND WINDS LESS THAN 18 KNOTS. A NW SWELL IS STILL EXPECTED TO
REACH THE LOCAL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY...TO INCREASE THE SEAS UP TO 6
FEET WITH OCCASIONAL SEAS UP TO 8 FEET. A MODERATE NNW SWELL WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS ON LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. THESE SWELLS WILL GENERATE DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS
ALONG THE NORTHERN EXPOSED BEACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 77 89 / 20 20 20 40
STT 79 88 78 88 / 30 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
445 AM AST TUE OCT 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL REMAIN EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS BETWEEN TWO SFC HIGHS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WILL GRADUALLY ERODE AS UPPER
TROUGH AMPLIFIES FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BY MIDWEEK. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS REMAINED MAINLY OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS AS THEY SLOWLY DRIFTED NORTHWEST...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. A FEW OF THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SECTIONS OF THE USVI AND EASTERN PR
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THEN...SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE MOUNTAIN RANGES OF
PR DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEY WILL REMAIN OR MOVE SLOW OVER THE
SAME AREAS...CAUSING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND FLOODING IN SMALL STREAMS AND URBAN
AREAS. ALSO...AS SOILS ARE ALREADY SATURATED BY PREVIOUS DAYS
RAINFALL...MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS IN
AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK...AS SIMILAR DIURNAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EACH DAY AS LIGHT STEERING WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AN UPPER TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED LOW ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE HISPANIOLA. THIS WILL TURN WINDS
MORE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND WILL BRING MORE TROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THIS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN COMBINATION
WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL RESULT IN A VERY ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS THRU THE FCST PRD. SFC WND LGT/VRB TO
CALM TIL 20/13Z...BCMG ESE AND GRADUALLY INCR TO 5-10 KTS WITH
SEABREEZE VARIATIONS. LCL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL LEAD TO AFTN
CONVTN OVR PARTS OF W AND NRN HALF OF PR ALONG CORDILLERA
CENTRAL...AND VCTY TJSJ...TJPS...TJBQ...AND TJMZ FM 20/18Z-20/22Z
WITH ISOLD TSRA/BRIEF MVFR/IFR PSBL.


&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE NNW SWELL WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE SWELLS WILL GENERATE
DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS ALONG THE NORTHERN EXPOSED BEACHES OF
PUERTO RICO. STRONG RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE OF ALL ISLANDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 89 78 / 20 20 40 20
STT 89 78 88 79 / 30 20 20 30

[HurricaneFan]

Is the weather event that is forecasted for the weekend into early next week just for PR and the VI or would the Leeward Islands get some rain too.If yes,how much rain approximately should be expected?

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
251 PM AST TUE OCT 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ABSORBED
BY A DEEP TROUGH WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY. AN INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UNDER PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR NORMAL VALUES AND
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...CONTINUE TO EXPECT FAIR WEATHER CONDS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO....FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER AND NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA. THIS
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
DUE TO THE LIGHT WIND FLOW AND WETTING RAINS FROM PREVIOUS
DAYS...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON.

AS THE TUTT TO OUR EAST IS ABSORBED BY A DEVELOPING TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AN INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED
LOW WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE HISPANIOLA. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL
ISLANDS... ASSOCIATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE
AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN WILL BRING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE UNDER FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING TROUGH TO OUR WEST...
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS...A BETTER CHANCE FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.
STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS TJMZ/TJBQ WITH VCSH/VCTS ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES BTWN 20/19-22Z. DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL LEAD TO AFTN CONVECTION
OVR PARTS OF W AND NRN HALF OF PR ALONG CORDILLERA CENTRAL. AFTER
20/23Z MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE REST OF THE FCST
PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AT 8-12KT AND LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND
NEAR SHRA/TSRA AND WITH SEA BREEZES. BCMG CALM TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFT 20/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE NNW SWELL WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT. THESE SWELLS WILL GENERATE
DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS ALONG THE NORTHERN EXPOSED BEACHES
OF PUERTO RICO. STRONG RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE OF ALL ISLANDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 79 91 79 / 20 20 40 20
STT 88 79 88 79 / 30 30 20 30

[cycloneye]

Is the weather event that is forecasted for the weekend into early next week just for PR and the VI or would the Leeward Islands get some rain too.If yes,how much rain approximately should be expected?

GFS has also good moisture for the Leewards at that timeframe.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
544 AM AST WED OCT 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND....THIS FEATURE WILL BE ABSORBED BY A DEEP TROUGH WHICH IS
WILL BECOME AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE UPPER TROUGH
IS TO THEN LIFT NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...
AN INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH JUST WEST AND NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN FAIRLY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
DEPICTED MAINLY SHALLOW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ONLY A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND REACHING PORTIONS OF
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. RAINFALL
HOWEVER WAS OF SHORT DURATION...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
NOTED. EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY UNDER
THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. HOWEVER...MODERATE SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS
AND LOCAL CONVERGENCE WILL GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY OVER THE WEST INTERIOR AND NORTH
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. LESSER SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS TO THEN CONTINUE
FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK.HOWEVER... THE PREVAILING LIGHT WINDS AND
GOOD DAYTIME HEATING EACH DAY...WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME ENHANCED ISOLATED
CONVECTION MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR AND NORTH SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. AS A RESULT...MINOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.

EXPECT A GRADUAL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN BY FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION AND A LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE BEGINS SET UP ACROSS THE AREA. THE
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH MODEST AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE ADVECTION...WILL GIVE WAY TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED
AND ENHANCED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS...AT
LEAST DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MORE TO COME ON THIS LATER.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE LOCAL FLYING AREA WITH VCSH ACROSS TIST AND TISX. SURFACE WIND
WILL REMAIN LGT/VRB TO CALM UNTIL 21/13Z...BECOMING FROM ESE AND
GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 5-10 KTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.
LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON CONVENTION OVER
PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHER HALF OF PR ALONG CORDILLERA
CENTRAL...AND VCTY TJSJ...TJPS...TJBQ...AND TJMZ FM 21/18Z-21/22Z
WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURATIONS AND ISOLATED TSRA/BRIEF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...RECENT DATA FROM BUOYS 41115 AND 41043 BOTH SUGGEST
SEAS BETWEEN 7 TO 8 FEET AT 10 SECS FROM A NORTHERLY SWELL. EXPECT
THIS NORTHERLY SWELL ACTION TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES AT LEAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS TODAY.
SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD THEREFORE EXERCISE CAUTION. IN
ADDITION... EXPECT HEIGHTENED RIP CURRENT RISK AT LEAST ALONG THE
NORTHERN FACING BEACHES. NORTHERLY SWELL TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AND
OVERALL SEAS SHOULD RETURN TO 2 TO 4 FEET IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 89 79 / 20 20 50 30
STT 89 79 88 79 / 20 30 30 30