Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
154 PM AST SAT OCT 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Tropical wave over the Caribbean Waters south of Puerto
Rico will continue to move westward and away from the local islands
tonight. Weak upper level low will retrogress over the region on
Monday...enhancing the convective instability across the islands.
Tropical Storm Nicole will remain near stationary north of the
local area through early next week before move to the north-
northeast over the Central North Atlantic after Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Tropical wave is moving south of Puerto Rico this
afternoon. Low level winds have shifted from the southeast after
the passage of the wave axis...favoring moisture advection across
the local islands. This result in scattered showers across the
local waters and portions of the interior and northern half of
Puerto Rico this afternoon. Additional showers and thunderstorms
will develop across these areas through sunset as moisture and
convective instability remains fairly high.

Although the tropical wave moves away from the region tonight...
moisture will remain above normal through at least midweek.
Persistent south-southeast flow due to the proximity of Tropical
Storm Nicole will favor the moisture advection and hot temperatures
across the islands over the next several days. With an upper
level trough/TUTT moving over the Northeast Caribbean region
early next week...shower development is likely across the forecast
area. Heavy rainfall is possible each day especially over portions
of the interior and north Puerto Rico. The forecast for the second
part of next week is still uncertain...mainly because models
disagree on the track of Tropical Storm Nicole. The track of
Nicole will affect the low level flow...hence the rain and
temperature forecast is still uncertain at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA, mountain obsc and SCT-BKN ceiling at
FL025-FL050 expected across the half section of PR/Northern USVI
thru 22z. This will result in brief MVFR or even IFR conds at
TJBQ/TJMZ and possibly TJSJ/TIST. This activity is expected to
diminish around sunset, leaving just a few passing -SHRA across
TIST/TJPS/TISX/TNCM/TKPK. SFC wnd from the S to ESE at 10-15 knots
and gusty near SHRA/TSRA, becoming calm to light and variable aft
08/23z.

&&

.MARINE...TS Nicole will continue to send moderate swells across
the local Atlantic waters during the next few days. A bigger swell
is forecast by the NOAA Wave Watch 3 for early next week. This
will likely result of seas building to 5-7 feet across the local
Atlantic waters between Tuesday and Wednesday. Elsewhere...seas of
3-5 feet expected through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 77 92 / 30 40 10 40
STT 80 87 82 87 / 40 40 30 30

[cycloneye]

AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
437 AM AST SUN OCT 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Tropical wave over Hispaniola will continue to move
westward and away from the local islands today. An upper level trough
will move over the region on Monday, maintaining a relatively wet
weather pattern across the region. Tropical Storm Nicole will
remain near stationary north of the local area through early next
week before move to the north-northeast over the Central North
Atlantic.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Doppler weather radar indicated scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms mostly across the surrounding coastal
waters, with few of them affecting the eastern and southeastern
sections of Puerto Rico overnight. Several Flood advisories were
issued for coastal municipalities across eastern, southern and
southeastern Puerto Rico. Under a south southeast wind flow most
of this activity dissipated or moved to the Atlantic coastal
waters by early in the morning. The overnight shower and
thunderstorm activity was associated with the moisture left
behind the tropical wave now across Hispaniola.

Some moisture associated with the ample circulation of Tropical
Storm Nicole, north of the region is expected to combine with
lingering moisture behind the tropical wave, daytime heating and
local effects to produce a new round of showers and thunderstorms
just along and north of Cordillera Central this afternoon and
evening. This will lead to periods of moderate to locally heavy
rainfall and possibly minor urban and small stream flooding.

An upper level trough is expected to move over the Northeast
Caribbean on Monday. This feature is expected to maintain a
relatively wet weather pattern across the region for the next
several days.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR but periods of SHRA/Isold TSRA en route
to Nrn Leeward Islands and USVI FM eastern PR terminals thru 09/14z.
SHRA and isolated TSRA expected to continue over the ATLC waters and
local Passages thru Sunday evening. Btwn 09/16z-09/22z, SHRA/TSRA
fcst to develop along and north of the mtn ranges of PR. Impacting
the flying area of TJSJ/TJBQ/TIST. Mtn top obscr and MVFR conds
expected. Light southerly winds will continue at SFC...incr 5-15 kt
from the WSW aft 09/14z.

&&

.MARINE...Tropical Storm Nicole will continue to send moderate
swells across the local Atlantic waters during the next few days.
Seas are expected to build to 5-7 feet across the local Atlantic
waters between Tuesday and Wednesday. Elsewhere...seas of 3-5 feet
expected through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 77 91 77 / 40 20 40 10
STT 87 79 87 81 / 40 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
139 PM AST SUN OCT 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Weak upper level low will retrogress over the
region on Monday...enhancing the convective instability across
the islands. Tropical Storm Nicole will move slowly north over
the Western Atlantic...inducing a southerly flow across the
Eastern Caribbean. This wind flow will favor moisture advection
across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands through midweek...
resulting in scattered to numerous showers across the forecast
area at times. Trade wind pattern will likely return on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Low level winds have prevailed from the south-
southwest...in response to the Tropical Storm Nicole about 400 NM
north of Puerto Rico. Moisture pooling from the Caribbean Waters
has favored the development of showers and thunderstorms across
the regional waters, the U.S. Virgin Islands and portions of the
northern half of Puerto Rico this afternoon. New showers and
thunderstorms will develop across the U.S. Virgin Islands, Culebra,
Vieques and the northern half of Puerto Rico the rest of today as
moisture and convective instability remains fairly high.

Persistent southerly flow due to the proximity of Tropical Storm
Nicole will favor the moisture advection and hot temperatures
across the islands over the next few days. In addition...the
presence of the upper level trough/TUTT over the Northeast
Caribbean region early in the week will result in showers and
thundestorms with heavy rainfall across portions of the forecast
area everyday through at least midweek. The forecast for the
second part of the week will greatly depend on the final track of
Tropical Storm Nicole. However...looks like the low level flow
will return to the east late Thursday into Friday...resulting in
the typical trade wind pattern across the local islands.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA with Psbl isold TSRA expected to continue over
TIST/TISX/TJSJ btwn 09/15z-22z. Therefore, MVFR or brief IFR conds
are expected thru this period. In addition, aft convection may
be delay due to a mid to upper level clouds, but still expecting
mtn obsc and SHRA/TSRA across the Cordillera Central and impacting
the flying area of TJBQ/TJPS. Winds are expected from the S to SW
around 10 knots becoming calm to light and variable aft 09/22z.

&&

.MARINE...Tranquil marine conditions will continue with seas below
5 feet and winds around 10-15 knots. A bigger swell generated by
Post-Tropical Cyclone Matthew is forecast by the NWW3 model. This
NNW swell will likely reach the local Atlantic Waters late Monday
into Tuesday. This may result in seas building to 5-7 feet across
the local Atlantic waters on Tuesday. Elsewhere...seas of 3-5 feet
expected through the forecast period. Small Craft Advisories for
the Atlantic Waters and Caribbean Passages may be required on Tuesday
if the model solution verifies.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 91 77 92 / 20 40 10 30
STT 79 87 81 88 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
458 AM AST MON OCT 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Abundant moisture and local heating will pair up to
yield showers and thunderstorms in gentle winds for most of the
week in the surrounding waters and during the afternoons in
northern Puerto Rico.

At upper levels...A trough extends over the local area from a low
to the north. The low will drift southwest over the Dominican
Republic by Wednesday and high pressure will build northeast of
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. When low pressure forms
well north of the local area, flow becomes westerly with a weak
ridge passing through on Monday of next week. This high builds
over the Caribbean during that week.

At mid levels...When Tropical Storm Nicole moves north of the
area, high pressure northeast of us will link with high pressure
in the Gulf of Mexico across the local area. The high will weaken
early next week when a trough extends southwest across the western
Atlantic and into the western Caribbean. Moisture over the area
from a band of TS Nicole will lessen during the week.

At lower levels...High pressure in the north central Atlantic
will be replaced by a high now over the Great Lakes during the
course of the week. Tropical storm Nicole will strengthen and
move north northwest through Wednesday and then accelerate north
northeastward. The high pressure mentioned above wraps around
Nicole and provides a weak ridge over the local area until late
this week. During the following weekend and beyond a trough links
up between low pressure in the northwest Atlantic and the
southwest Caribbean.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Showers and isolated thunderstorms moved northeast
across the southeastern quadrant of the forecast area bringing
light amounts of rain to Saint Thomas and appreciably more to the
surrounding waters. As Nicole moves north northwestward the
trailing band of moisture out of the south will weaken and remain
generally southeast of Puerto Rico. Models suggest that there will
be enough moisture and instability to generate showers and
scattered to isolated thunderstorms over Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands this afternoon and continuing for most of the week.
Because of upper level troughing and good instability due to
temperatures reaching into the lower 90s inland, scattered
thunderstorms are expected, but rain amounts will generally be
modest and urban and small stream flooding should limited to local
areas where showers converge in light flow. Since precipitable
water remains almost constant and afternoon maximums vary little
from two inches this pattern will continue until Thursday. On
Thursday and Friday winds shift to a more easterly direction at
lower levels and showers move to the western side of Puerto Rico
until early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR expected across much of the terminals this
morning with VCSH across the Leeward and USVI taf sites. Btwn
10/16Z and 10/22Z, SHRA/TSRA are expected to develop along and
north of the mtn ranges of PR, impacting the flying area of
TJSJ/TJBQ. Mtn top obsc and MVFR conds expected. Additional
SHRA/TSRA could develop between the USVI terminals at the same
time. Light and variable winds will continue at the SFC early this
morning...incrg to 5-15 kt from the south aft 10/14z.

&&

.MARINE...Seas at buoy 41043 peaked at 9.5 to 10.0 feet between 09/21
and 10/03z and the predominant direction was northerly. The
wavewatch model was running 2 to 3 feet too low at that time and
this suggested a significant swell moving toward the local
islands. Nevertheless the models do not show these high seas
moving into the local area and assessing the impacts is
complicated by the extended outage of buoy 41053. It is suspected
that sustained winds from the south southwest are beating down the
swell generated by Nicole before they arrive in the local area.
Nevertheless the forecast for Monday was raised by a foot in
anticipation that some of this energy will reach the Atlantic
waters between 12 and 15 hours after it was initially registered
at the outer buoy. Additional swell is expected from both Nicole
and Matthew by Tuesday night when it is expected that small craft
advisories will be needed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 77 92 80 / 60 20 50 30
STT 87 81 88 80 / 50 40 40 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
209 PM AST MON OCT 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Unstable conditions are expected across the region as a TUTT/Low
aloft move over the region through the workweek. Tropical Storm
Nicole, about 500 miles North of San Juan, will continue to
produce a southerly wind flow across the region. Therefore, the
combination of the trough aloft, near to above normal moisture
and the southerly wind flow will produce afternoon showers and
thunderstorms along and to the North of the Cordillera Central,
and the U.S. Virgin Islands, followed by overnight showers and
thunderstorms across the surrounding waters each day. A tropical
wave will move to the South of the region, across the Eastern
Caribbean today and tomorrow. Winds are expected to become more
easterly by the end of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The doppler radar detected shower and thunderstorms mainly across
the U.S. Virgin Islands and the east half sections of Puerto
Rico. Elsewhere, a mixture of clouds and Sun prevailed across the
islands. Around noon, showers and clouds developed across the
west and interior portions of PR too. For the rest of this
afternoon, expect showers and thunderstorms across Vieques,
Culebra, St John/St. Thomas, St Croix and along and to the North
of the Cordillera Central. However, most of the activity is
expected across the U.S. Virgin Islands and their surrounding
waters. Overnight, still expecting scattered convection over the
U.S. Virgin Islands and portions of Culebra and Vieques.

Persistent southerly flow due to the proximity of Tropical Storm
Nicole will favor moisture advection and hot temperatures across
the islands though the work week. In addition...the presence of
the upper level trough/TUTT over the Northeast Caribbean region
through the week will result in showers and thunderstorms with
heavy rainfall across portions of the forecast area everyday
through at least mid week. If the track of Nicole continues as
expected, these weather conditions will continue at least until
the end of the workweek, when the typical trade wind pattern are
expected to return across the local islands.

&&

.AVIATION...
Brief MVFR conds possible in passing SHRA/TSRA in and around
TJSJ/TIST/TISX thru 22Z. Elsewhere, mainly VFR conds expected thru
the forecast periods. South to Southwest low level winds will
prevail below FL100.

&&

.MARINE...
A swell associated with Nicole and Post-Tropical Cyclone Matthew
is expected to deteriorate the marine conditions. Mariners can
expect winds around 15 knots and seas between 4 and 6 feet
increasing at 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. This
may result in small craft advisories across the Atlantic Waters
and Caribbean Passages later this week. Elsewhere...seas of 3-5
feet, the typical trade winds are expected to return by the end of
the workweek.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 92 80 90 / 10 50 30 50
STT 81 88 80 88 / 40 40 30 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
513 AM AST TUE OCT 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Moisture will remain high over the area as Tropical
Storm Nicole recedes to the north. Although moisture will slowly
diminish through next weekend, showers and thunderstorms are
expected each day. Deeper and greater moisture may come in on
southwest flow early next week.

At upper levels...Low pressure in the Mona channel northwest of
Puerto Rico will settle over the Dominican Republic and dissipate.
By late Friday high pressure will ridge northeast over the local
area and connect to the high already in place northeast of the
local area. High pressure continues over South America and the
central Caribbean during the following week.

At mid levels...High pressure will ridge over the Leeward Islands
from the northeast as Tropical Storm Nicole moves away from the
local area to the north. High pressure will then continue over the
Greater Antilles Thursday through Sunday. A trough will extend
southwest over the western Atlantic and toward Panama early next
week...bringing copious moisture into the local area.

At lower levels...Tropical Storm Nicole moves north and away from
the area allowing high pressure to build southeast into the
Atlantic waters north of the area. Next week low pressure in the
southwest Caribbean deepens and re-connects with low pressure from
the former TS Nicole in a trough across the local area and
Hispaniola.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Precipitable water was found to be 2.22 inches in
the 11/00z sounding. A band from the tail of Nicole also
brought showers and thunderstorms to the waters south and east of
Puerto Rico Monday afternoon and evening. Showers were still
affecting Saint Croix and Saint Thomas and Saint John even after
4 AM AST. A second band was just clipping the northwest corner of
the forecast area with showers and thunderstorms. The GFS shows
the main band of TS Nicole on its eastern side and extending
across the eastern third of the forecast area this morning, but
the maximum moisture moves to the Leeward Islands during the day
today. This leaves the heaviest showers over northwest Puerto Rico
this afternoon. The models shy away from heavy precipitation over
northeast Puerto Rico as was seen yesterday, but winds have not
changed so much that some showers could not form given that
moisture continues over 2 inches of precipitable water. Although
the band that formed over the U.S. Virgin Islands is forecast to
move eastward, this is also not so evident in the radar or MIMIC
products, therefore will also continue with higher POPs east of
Puerto Rico as well.

Wednesday shows some drier air at 850 mb, however precipitable
water remains very close to 2 inches, and models do show good
showers over northwest Puerto Rico, but drying in the southeastern
portion of our forecast area.

Flow gradually shifts to the east and by Friday a more typical
pattern is expected as trade winds become prevalent. Next week the
GFS shows low pressure at low and mid levels in the southwest
Caribbean contributing to moisture advection south of a cold
front and shear line a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico that
will need to be monitored as it has indications of being able to
support strong moisture flow out of the deep tropics to our
southwest.

&&

.AVIATION...Prevailing VFR expected across the local terminals
through 11/16Z. Btwn 11/16Z and 11/22Z, SHRA/TSRA expected to
develop along and north of the mtn ranges of PR, impacting the
flying area of TJSJ/TJBQ. Mtn top obsc and MVFR conds expected.
Additional SHRA/TSRA could develop around the USVI terminals at the
same time. Light and VRB winds will continue at the SFC through
11/13Z...incrg to 5-15 kt from the south aft 11/14z with some sea
breeze variations which could cause light crosswinds at TJBQ from
the NNW.

&&

.MARINE...Seas have subsided 3 feet at buoy 41043 to 7 feet.
Meanwhile seas laden with swell from Matthew at buoy 41046 have
topped 10 feet. All models have been under forecasting and we
continue to expect small craft advisory seas to enter the local
Atlantic marine areas tonight. Conditions will likely remain
hazardous until Thursday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 80 90 79 / 60 20 30 20
STT 88 80 88 80 / 40 40 40 30

&&

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
253 PM AST Tue Oct 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Unstable conditions are expected to prevail across the local
region through the workweek. Tropical Storm Nicole, about 600
miles North of San Juan, will continue to produce a southerly wind
flow across the region. Therefore, the combination of the TUTT
Low, near to above normal moisture and the southerly wind flow
will produce afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the
surrounding waters, the U.S. Virgin Islands, along and to the
North of the Cordillera Central of Puerto Rico each afternoon.
Followed by passing showers and isolated thunderstorms across the
local waters overnight. Winds are expected to return to the
typical trade wind pattern by the end of the workweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The doppler radar detected shower and thunderstorms mainly across
the U.S. Virgin Islands and to the north of the Cordillera Central
of Puerto Rico. Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to
continue across portions of the islands, with rainfall
accumulation between 1 and 3 inches and locally higher. Heavy rain
could lead to flooding across portions of the islands during the
rest of the afternoon and into the evening hours. Overnight,
still expecting scattered convection over the U.S. Virgin Islands
and portions of South and East Puerto Rico.

Persistent southerly flow due to the proximity of Tropical Storm
Nicole will favor moisture advection and hot temperatures across
the islands through the work week. In addition...the presence of
the upper level trough/TUTT over the Northeast Caribbean region
through the week will result in showers and thunderstorms with
heavy rainfall across portions of the forecast area everyday
through at least Thursday. The typical trade wind pattern are
expected to return across the local islands by Friday and into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Brief MVFR conds possible in SHRA/TSRA across TJSJ/TJBQ/TIST thru
22Z. Mountain Obscurations will continue across the Cordillera
Central through this evening. Elsewhere, mainly VFR conds with
VCSH at times. Southerly winds will prevail below FL100 thru the
forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...
A long period north swell is creating hazardous marine conditions
across the Caribbean Passages and Atlantic Waters. Mariners can
expect seas at 5 to 8 feet with occasional seas up to 10 feet and
southerly winds at 10 to 15 knots knots. This may result in small
craft advisories across the Atlantic Waters and Caribbean
Passages. Dangerous breaking wave heights can be expected across
the beaches of West/East Puerto Rico and the Northern U.S. Virgin
Islands. Elsewhere...seas of 3-6 feet, the typical trade winds
are expected to return by the end of the workweek.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 90 79 92 / 10 30 20 30
STT 80 88 80 88 / 40 40 30 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
444 AM AST Wed Oct 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
TUTT low over Hispaniola and the Mona Passage will continue to
shift farther west of the region during the next couple of days,
as high pressure ridge will build and spread across the region by
Friday and into the weekend. In the meantime the forecast area
will remain on the divergent side of the upper trough to maintain
unstable conditions aloft. In the low levels, Hurricane Nicole
across the Western Atlantic and high pressure ridge extending
across the Northeastern Caribbean will maintain an fairly moist
deep layered south southeasterly wind flow at least until Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The moist southerly flow across the region along with unstable
conditions aloft will continue to provide favorable conditions for
convective development across the the region today. Sat derived
precipitable water analysis as well as earlier TJSJ 12/00z upper
air sounding both suggest high deep layer moisture content with
precipitable water values above two inches. Therefore expect
shower and periods of light to moderate rain to continue to
affect the coastal waters and potions of the islands during the
rest of the early morning hours.

For the remainder of the day, under the expected southerly
flow,showers and isolated thunderstorms will be focused along the
interior and northern half of Puerto Rico as well as over portions
of the U.S Virgin Islands. This overall moist pattern is so far
forecast to persist at least until Friday. Therefore...expect late
evening and early morning showers to affect the south and east
coastal section of the island followed by good moisture convergence
and afternoon convection over the northern and northwest section
of the islands each day. Afternoon convection will be locally and
diurnally enhanced due to the unstable condtions aloft. This will
lead to periods of locally heavy rainfall with possibly strong
thunderstorm activity. Urban and small stream flooding will
therefore remain possible, as well as mudslides in areas of steep
terrain and where soil remains loose and saturated from previous
rains in the recent days.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR except briefly MVFR arnd TISX and TJPS for
CIGS nr FL030 in -SHRA til 12/10z. Aft 12/16Z...areas of mtn
obscurations and sct +SHRA/+TSRA creating lcl MVFR/IFR conds. winds
southerly 5 to 15 kt sfc to FL320.

&&

.MARINE...Long period northerly swells will continue to create
hazardous marine conditions across the Atlantic waters and local
passages today through at least Thursday. Mariners can therefore
expect Seas between 5 to 10 feet, with occasional seas up to 11
feet along with southerly winds at 5 to 15 knots. This will result
in small craft advisories across the Atlantic Waters and local
passages. Dangerous breaking wave heights can be expected across
the beaches of West/North and East Puerto Rico and the Northern
U.S. Virgin Islands. Elsewhere...seas of 3-6 feet, the typical
trade winds are expected to return by the end of the workweek.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 92 79 / 50 20 30 20
STT 88 80 88 80 / 40 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
352 PM AST Wed Oct 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Upper level low/TUTT just south of Hispanola will
weaken over the next days. At the same time...a mid level ridge
will build across the Northeast Caribbean. Hurricane Nicole is
forecast to move northward into the North Central Atlantic over
the next day or two...allowing a surface high pressure to build
north of the islands. As a result...easterly trade winds will
return to the region on Friday. Moist and unstable pattern is
possible once again by midweek next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Low level winds have prevailed from the south-
southeast as a Hurricane Nicole continue to move north across the
Western Atlantic. This southerly flow is promoting moisture
transport across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. High
moisture content combined with unstable conditions associated with
the upper level low/TUTT will maintain the environment favorable
for showers and thunderstorms the rest of the afternoon.

As Hurricane Nicole will move away from the region...surface winds
will gradually back to the east. This will change the location of
the afternoon convection to the Northwest Quadrant on Thursday...and
to the West Interior and West portions of PR from Friday through
the weekend. The shower coverage will gradually diminish each
afternoon as mid-level ridge promotes a drier and more stable air
mass at mid levels.

Operational models are suggesting a wetter pattern for the second
part of next week...as a frontal boundary interacts with an upper
level trough/TUTT. We will continue to monitor the model solutions
to see if this wet pattern materializes.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected across the local terminals. SHRA/TSRA
possibly affecting the vicinity of the USVI terminals as well as
TJSJ, TJMZ, and TJBQ after 12/18Z. Weather conditions improving
after 12/23Z. Winds will be generally at 10 KT or less from the SE
across most terminals with some variations due to sea breeze. TJBQ
is expected to observe northerly winds this afternoon. Winds
becoming light and variable after 12/23Z and overnight.

&&

.MARINE...NNW swells generated by Hurricane Nicole will continue
to create hazardous marine conditions across the Atlantic waters
and local passages today through at least Thursday. Mariners can
therefore expect seas between 5 to 10 feet, with occasional seas
up to 11 feet along with southerly winds at 5 to 15 knots. This
will result in Small Craft Advisories across the Atlantic Waters
and local passages. Large breaking wave heights can be expected
across the beaches of West and North Puerto Rico and the Northern
U.S. Virgin Islands. Elsewhere...seas of 3-6 feet, the typical
trade winds are expected to return by the end of the workweek.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 92 79 91 / 20 30 20 20
STT 80 88 80 88 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
505 AM AST Thu Oct 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT low south of Hispanola will continue to shift farther
west over the next days,as a mid to upper level ridge will build
across the Northeast Caribbean. Powerful Hurricane Nicole is forecast
to move further northward into the North Central Atlantic over the
few days...allowing surface high pressure ridge to reestablish just
northeast of the local island chain. This will result in the deep
southerly flow to become more easterly allowing for a return of the
easterly trades by Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Few light to moderate showers continued to develop
over the coastal waters and move across parts of the south and
east coastal sections of some of the islands. Rainfall amounts
however were less than a tenth of an inch. Expect gradual clearing
by late morning leaving partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies. During
the afternoon, showers and mostly isolated thunderstorms can be expected
to develop mainly over the north central to northwestern sections
of PR. Afternoon convection will however quickly diminish by sunset
leaving partly cloudy to mostly clear skies during the rest of the
evening and overnight hours.

Similar conditions expected on Friday through Saturday, except for
the light southeasterly winds to become more easterly as Hurricane
Nicole moves further north of the region. A gradual improvement in
the overall weather conditions over the weekend and into early next
week, under a light easterly trade wind flow and lesser moisture
advection. By the middle of next week,recent model guidance continued
to suggest a return of a moist and unstable weather pattern to the
region. More on this later.

On another note, the warm afternoon high temperature created by
the prevailing southerly flow today and recent days should return
to near normal by Friday and over the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION....VFR conds expected at all TAF sites with a few passing
showers possible in and around the Leeward and USVI terminals as
well as JSJ overnight. Aft 13/16z SHRA/TSRA development expected
over North Puerto Rico, and this will result in mountain obscurations
as well as MVFR conds at JBQ/JMZ. Light sfc winds overnight, becoming
ESE at 10 knots or less with sea breeze variations aft 13/12z. Winds
ESE 12 kt or less gradually bcmg ENE with height by FL220.

&&

.MARINE...Long period northerly swell up to 7 feet will continue
across the Atlantic waters and Mona Passage at least until early
Friday morning. Thereafter, the northerly swell will slowly subside
before another long period northeasterly swell generated from Nicole
enters the local waters by early next week. A high surf advisory
remains in effect for the west through northeast coast of PR due
to large breaking wave action through later this evening. A high
rip current risk remains in effect for the same time and areas
including the southwest corner of PR, northern Culebra and the
northwest coast of St. Thomas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 78 91 78 / 30 10 20 20
STT 88 80 88 80 / 30 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
107 PM AST Thu Oct 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A mid level ridge will continue to build across the
Northeast Caribbean over the next few days. Hurricane Nicole is
forecast to move northward over the next day or two...allowing a
surface high pressure to build north of the islands. As a result...
easterly trade winds will return to the region on Friday. Moist
and unstable pattern is possible once again by midweek next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Southeasterly flow is promoting moisture transport
across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. This high moisture
content combined with local effects will result in shower and
thunderstorm development across portions of the Cordillera
Central, North Central and Northwest Puerto Rico the rest of the
afternoon. Urban and small stream flooding is possible in areas of
heavy rainfall later this afternoon.

Hurricane Nicole is move away from the region over the next 24
hours...allowing surface winds to shift from the east on Friday.
This will change the location of the afternoon convection to the
West Interior and West portions of PR from Friday through the
weekend. The shower coverage will diminish somewhat each afternoon
as mid-level ridge builds over the region...resulting in drier and
more stable air mass at mid levels.

Operational models are suggesting a wetter pattern for the second
part of next week...as a frontal boundary interacts with an upper
level trough/TUTT. If this wet pattern materializes...environmental
conditions will support organize convection across the local region.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA around TJSJ and the vicinity of TJPS, TJMZ,
and TJBQ. VCSH/VCTS possible at the TIST and TISX as they stream
off the islands. Light winds from the SE today with sea breeze
variations, becoming light and variable overnight.

&&

.MARINE...High surf advisory continues in effect through tonight as
local buoy readings at the Rincon buoy indicates that conditions may
still require a high surf advisory. However...the high risk of rip
currents will continue through at least Friday night as breaking
waves will range between 5-8 feet especially in the Atlantic Beaches.
As Nicole move farther north over the North Atlantic...swells will
gradually subside across the local Atlantic waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 91 78 89 / 10 20 20 30
STT 80 88 80 88 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
553 AM AST Fri Oct 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS....A mid level ridge will continue to build across the
Northeast Caribbean over the next few days. surface high pressure
to build north of the islands. As a result...easterly trade winds
will dominates the local region through the weekend. Moist and
unstable pattern is possible once again by midweek next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Only light passing showers were noted over the U.S.
Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico. Partly cloudy to clear
skies prevailed elsewhere. Local area will remain under the
influence of a weak area of surface high pressure. This area of
high pressure will produce east to east northeast trade winds
across the region.

Locally induced showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
this afternoon mainly across the western interior and southwestern
sections of Puerto Rico. Weather pattern will not change much
next several days as upper level ridge dominates the local area.
It is not until Tuesday, better chances for showers could be
expected...as low level moisture is forecast to increase by that
time.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions expected across the local
flying area...with only passing SHRA en route btwn the Leeward
Islands and the U.S.V.I. in the morning. After 14/16z, SHRA/TSRA
development expected over western and Interior PR, as well as
downwind from El Yunque and the U.S. Virgin Islands. As a result,
mnt obsc as well as MVFR conds at TJBQ/TJMZ with VCTY at TJSJ can
be expected. Light and variable winds, expected to becomes more from
the East at 10 knots or less with sea breeze variations after 14/13z.

&&

.MARINE...Seas has diminished below 7 feet. Therefore...small
craft advisories were allowed to expire. However...Small Craft
should exercise caution across most coastal waters. In
addition...very dangerous rip currents will continue through at
least tonight.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 90 78 / 30 20 20 30
STT 88 78 89 78 / 30 10 20 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
206 PM AST Fri Oct 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Mid to upper level ridge will build and remain in
place across the region today through the weekend. Ridge is then
forecast to erode by early next week as a broad trough will move
across the Western Atlantic. Surface high pressure ridge will build
across the west and central Atlantic to maintain light to
moderate easterly trade winds through the weekend. Recent
satellite imagery suggests a weak easterly perturbation and patch
of low level moisture now moving across the Northeast Caribbean
with a slot of drier air quickly approaching the Lesser Antilles.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Recent TJSJ 14/12z upper air sounding and satellite
imagery both suggest sufficient moisture advection and convergence
across the region to combine with local and diurnal effects to allow
for afternoon and early evening convection across the islands and
coastal waters. Therefore expect intervals of showers and isolated
thunderstorm during the rest of the afternoon and early evening
hours across the islands. This will be followed by a gradual
clearing and decreasing moisture convergence as drier air will
filter across the region over much of the weekend.

Over the weekend mostly fair weather and somewhat drier conditions
can be expected as the ridge aloft will support a cap inversion
and limit moisture advection. However, expected local sea breeze
convergence and diurnal effects to still support isolated to scattered
afternoon convection mainly across parts of the interior and west
sections of Puerto Rico.

By early next week as gradual change in the weather pattern is
expected as an induced surface trough is forecast to then move
across the region and a south to southeast wind flow will an increase
in ITCZ moisture convergence. In addition, the southerly flow will
allow for good daytime heating and also slightly warmer afternoon
temperatures at least through Wednesday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA in the vicinity of TJSJ, TJPS, TJMZ, and TJBQ
expected to continue through 14/21Z...possibly affecting the TJMZ
terminal causing TEMPO MVFR conds. VCSH expected at TIST and TISX
SHRA stream off the islands with brief moments of SHRA affecting
TIST this afternoon. Winds from the East to ESE this afternoon at
around 10KT with sea breeze variations, remaining light and easterly
for the outlying islands and becoming light and variable
at the PR terminals overnight.

&&

.MARINE...High risk of rip currents continue for the North facing
beaches of PR, St Thomas, Culebra, and also for portions of the SW
beaches of PR. Small craft should exercise caution as seas are expected
to be up to 6 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 78 90 / 20 20 30 30
STT 78 89 78 90 / 10 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
549 AM AST Sat Oct 15 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Mid to upper level ridge will build and remain in
place across the region today through the weekend. Ridge is then
forecast to erode by early next week as a broad trough will move
across the Western Atlantic. Surface high pressure ridge will build
across the west and central Atlantic to maintain light to
moderate easterly trade winds through the weekend. Recent
satellite imagery suggests a weak easterly perturbation and patch
of low level moisture now moving across the Northeast Caribbean
with a slot of drier air quickly approaching the Lesser Antilles.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Some light passing showers were observed across the
Atlantic coastal waters overnight. Some of these showers brushed
the northern coast of Puerto Rico. A slot of drier air east of the
local islands...will move across the region later today.
Therefore...limited shower activity is expected through much of
the day. However...daytime heating and local effects will combined
with available moisture to produced scattered showers with
isolated thunderstorms over the western interior and southwestern
sections of Puerto Rico.

Moisture will increase by mid week as broad trough moves across
the Western Atlantic. This trough will induce a moist southerly
flow across the region which will result in better chances for
showers and thunderstorms beginning on Tuesday and continuing
until at least Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions expected this morning across the
local Flying area with only VCSH expected en route between the
Leeward Islands and USVI. After 15/16z, SHRA/TSRA development
expected over western and Interior PR. As a result, mountain
obscurations as well as brief periods of MVFR conditions are
possible at TJBQ/TJMZ with VCSH at TJSJ. Expect easterly winds at 10
to 15 knots with sea some sea breeze variations aft 15/13z.

&&

.MARINE...Seas up to 5 feet and winds up to 15 knots are expected.
Moderate risk of rip current is expected along the north facing
beaches of Puerto Rico today.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 88 77 / 20 30 30 30
STT 89 78 88 77 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
154 PM AST Sat Oct 15 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Light easterly winds will continue through the
weekend until a weak SFC low develops over the Bahamas, causing
the local winds to shift to a more southerly direction on Monday
and bringing an increase in moisture by Tuesday which will linger
for the rest of the week. Upper level ridge is expected to erode
by Tuesday as an upper low approaches from the NW, but then an
upper high pressure moves in over the local area on Wednesday.
Locally induced showers expected this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...It was a relatively quiet morning and early
afternoon as the drier air intrusion limited the shower activity
quite significantly over the local area. The latest satellite
imagery indicates some cloudiness across the area which implies
that there is a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms later
in the afternoon across the southern slopes and portions of the
eastern interior of PR as cloudiness streams off the Luquillo
Mountain Range. For tonight there should be also limited shower
activity in the evening with a slightly higher chance of brief
showers late tonight.

The overall moisture is expected to increase slightly on Sunday
and Monday which brings a better chance of showers than today.
However, there is a SFC low which is expected to develop over the
Bahamas or just northwest of the local islands which will cause a
wind shift late on Monday into Tuesday and for the rest of the
week. This shift in wind direction will also cause deeper moisture
to move into the area from the south, which may combine with an
approaching upper low on Tuesday. This setup, if it were to
materialize, would cause an increase in shower and thunderstorm
potential over the local area on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected durg entire prd across the local
flying area. Isold passing SHRA btw E PR and Nrn Leewards fm
16/06/16/12z. Aft 16/16z, SHRA/ Isold TSRA development psbl ovr
western and Interior PR. As a result, mtn top obscr as well as prds
of MVFR conds psbl at TJBQ/TJMZ with VCSH at TJSJ. Sfc wnd fm E at
10 to 15 knots with sea some sea breeze variations aft 16/14z.

&&

.MARINE...Seas expected to be up to 5 feet for the rest of today,
gradually building up to 6 feet by Sunday and Monday, then
building even a bit more to 7 feet by Monday night under a
northeasterly swell.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 88 77 89 / 30 30 30 30
STT 78 88 77 87 / 30 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
533 AM AST Sun Oct 16 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Light easterly winds will continue through the
weekend until a weak SFC low develops over the Bahamas, causing
the local winds to shift to a more southerly direction on Monday
and bringing an increase in moisture by Tuesday which will linger
for the rest of the week. Upper level ridge is expected to erode
by Tuesday as an upper low approaches from the NW, but then an
upper high pressure moves in over the local area on Wednesday.
Locally induced showers expected to continue today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...limited shower activity was observed over land areas
overnight. Only light passing showers were seen mainly along the
north coast of Puerto Rico. Local area remains under the influence
of an upper level ridge which is limiting the shower development across
the region. For today, available moisture will combined with day
time heating and local effect to produce scattered showers with
thunderstorms mainly over the western interior sections of Puerto
Rico.

The moisture is expected to increase early this week,bringing a
better chance of showers and thunderstorm across the region. A
surface low is expected to develop over Bahamas with another
surface low expected to develop across the southwestern Caribbean
by Tuesday. These features will cause a wind shift to the
southeast late Monday into Tuesday and for the rest of the week.
This shift in wind direction will also cause deeper moisture to
move into the area from the south, which may combine with an
approaching upper low on Tuesday. If this situation materialize,
will cause an increase in shower and thunderstorm potential over
the local area from Tuesday until at least Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected across the local flying area.
Passing SHRA expected over eastern PR through 16/16z. Aft 16/16z,
SHRA/ Isold TSRA development possible over western and Interior
PR. As a result, mountain top obscurations as well as periods of
MVFR conds possible at TJBQ/TJMZ with VCSH at TJSJ. Surface wind
from the East at 10 to 15 knots with some sea breeze variations
aft 16/14z.

&&

.MARINE...seas up to 5 feet and winds up to 15 knots are expected
over the coastal waters. High rip current risk is expected through
at least Monday afternoon. Refer to latest CFWSJU product for
latest information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 90 77 / 30 20 30 20
STT 88 78 88 79 / 30 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
145 PM AST Sun Oct 16 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Light easterly winds will continue through tonight
then a weak SFC low starts to develop to the WNW of the local area,
causing the local winds to shift to a more southerly direction on
Monday and bring an increase in moisture by Tuesday which will
linger for the rest of the week. Upper level ridge is expected to
erode by Tuesday as an upper low approaches from the NW, but then
an upper high pressure moves in over the local area late Wednesday.
Locally induced showers expected this this afternoon and Monday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...It was a relatively quiet morning and early
afternoon as the relatively dry air limited the shower activity
quite over the local area. The latest satellite imagery indicates
some cloudiness across the area which implies that there is a
chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms later in the
afternoon across the many sectors of PR except the South, East and
North coastal municipalities. Some showers are possible later in
the afternoon for the USVI, Vieques and Culebra. For tonight
there should be also limited shower activity late tonight.

The overall moisture is expected to remain constant today with a
precipitable water value of around 1.7 inches but is expected to
decrease slightly overnight and Monday as a patch of even drier
air is expected to move in from the south as the winds change to a
southerly direction. However, moisture is expected to increase
significantly starting on Tuesday as the expected SSE winds will
pull moisture from the south and into our local area. this is due
to a SFC low which is expected to develop over Hispaniola into
southern Bahamas or just West-Northwest of the local
islands...causing a wind shift early on Monday...continuing for
the rest of the week. This shift in wind direction will also combine
with an approaching upper low on Tuesday. This setup, if it were
to materialize, would cause an increase in shower and thunderstorm
potential over the local area on Tuesday and Wednesday. Having
said that, if the winds are strong, the showers and thunderstorms
may not be of long duration over the northern half of PR, so there
is uncertainty on just how much rain for the San Juan metro.
However, the southern coast of PR and the USVI may observe
persistent showers moving in from the south.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds to prevail durg entire prd across local
flying area and at all local terminals. Few TCU tops FL100-FL120
with isold-sct SHRA and slight chance of isold TSRA ovr Ctrl and W
PR...bcmg SKC fm 16/23Z. Brief Mtn top obscr ovr PR due to aftn
convection and VCSH at TJSJ/TJBQ/TJMZ/TJPS til 16/23z. Local sea
breeze variations to continue bcmg lgt/vrb aft 16/22z. L/lvl wnds fm
E-NE 10-15 kts blo FL180...bcmg fm NW and incr w/ht abv.

&&

.MARINE...There is a high risk of rip currents for the North
facing beaches of PR and with the northerly swell moving in on
Monday, the high risk of rip currents is expected to continue for
the next couple of days. At this time the local buoys are
reporting seas of around 3 to 5 feet across the local northern
waters and the passages with a period of 13 seconds. Breaking
waves could be 4-7 feet and occasional slightly higher across the
northern beaches of PR. Surf heights are expected to increase by
Monday night as the northerly swell invades the local area. Seas
are expected to deteriorate as well. Currently the local seas are
up to 5 feet but are expected to increase up to 7 feet by monday
night.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 90 77 91 / 20 30 20 50
STT 78 88 79 87 / 20 20 30 40

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
633 AM AST Mon Oct 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A southerly wind flow is expected to dominate the local area, as
a surface low developed to the East of Bahamas. This southerly
wind flow will interact with a stationary frontal boundary,
associated with Nicole, to bring an increase in tropical moisture
across the islands through at least mid week. In addition, an
upper level ridge is expected to slowly erode as an upper low
approaches the Lesser Antilles, but as this low moves closer, an
upper high pressure build over the region. Locally induced
showers and possible thunderstorms are expected mainly along and
to the North of the Cordillera Central of Puerto Rico, as well as
passing showers over the U.S. Virgin Islands and their surrounding
waters each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
In general, fair weather conditions were observed across the
islands overnight. The minimum temperatures dropped below 80s
across the coastal areas and below 70s over the Mountainous areas.
A dry air mass is expected to move across the islands today,
however afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected due to
the local effects and diurnal heating.

As the surface low develop to the East of Bahamas a southerly
wind flow is expected to prevail across the region. This wind
flow will bring deep tropical moisture across the area between
Tuesday and Wednesday. Therefore, the local effect, diurnal
heating and the available moisture will increase the potential for
localized flooding mainly along and to the North of the
Cordillera Central during that period.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites overnight. Aft
17/16z, SHRA/ Isold TSRA development psbl ovr western and Interior
PR. As a result, mtn top obscr as well as prds of MVFR conds psbl at
TJBQ/TJMZ with VCSH at TJSJ. Light and variable winds overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
A northerly swell is producing dangerous marine conditions across
the coastal areas of Puerto Rico and Northern U.S. Virgin Islands.
As a result a small craft advisory is in effect across the
Atlantic and Caribbean passages. In addition dangerous rip
currents are expected along the northern coastline of Puerto Rico.
Also, long period northerly swell are expected to move across the
local waters through the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 77 91 79 / 30 20 50 20
STT 86 80 86 81 / 20 30 40 20

&&

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
717 AM AST Tue Oct 18 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An induce surface trough due to the interaction of a broad
Surface Low Pressure to the east of Bahamas and a frontal boundary
associated with Nicole is producing unstable conditions across the
region today. In addition, is inducing a southerly wind flow
across the forecast area, which is expected at least until
Late Wednesday or Thursday. Thereafter, winds are to become more
easterly as the Atlantic ridge will build and sink southward
across the Northeastern Caribbean.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms moved across the southern municipalities
overnight. Then a squall line moved inland across West Puerto Rico
from the Mona Passage early this morning. This squall line produce
frequent lightning, gusty winds and heavy rainfall across these
municipalities. Several Special weather Statements as well as a
Flood advisory were issued across the west, west interior and
southern municipalities. This activity is expected to continue
moving northeastward, as a result, the municipalities of the
interior, north, south and east PR can expect inclement weather
with periods of moderate to heavy rain, frequent lightning,
ponding of waters on roadways, gusty winds, urban and small stream
flooding during the next one to three hours.

After the passage of this squall line, tranquil weather
conditions are expected until the afternoon hours. However,
showers and thunderstorms are expected over most of Puerto Rico as
an area of low pressure induced a very moist southerly flow across
the region. This moist southerly flow will combined with favorable
atmospheric conditions to produce scattered showers with
thunderstorms over most of Puerto Rico this afternoon, but mainly
along the northern slopes of the island. But keep in mind, that
cloudiness could inhibit afternoon convection. This wet pattern is
expected to continue through at least midweek. As a result of, expect
another good chance for enhanced afternoon convection on Wednesday
with moisture advection and instability expected to decrease and
diminish by Thursday and into the upcoming weekend, as an upper
level high pressure build over the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA expected to continue across mainland Puerto Rico, as a
squall line move northeastward across the island. Some of these
showers are expected to create brief periods of MVFR and IFR at
TJBQ/TJMZ/TJPS/TJSJ at least until 15z. Then SHRA/TSRA are
expected to decrease. Medium confidence on fcst thru 16z,
however, SHRA/TSRA should develop along and to the north of the
mtn ranges of PR on Tuesday afternoon. Low level southerly winds
will continue at 5-12 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
A long period north to northeast swell between 6 and 10 feet are
expected across the Atlantic waters, and Caribbean Passages
through at least wednesday. As a result, a coastal flood and high
surf advisories continue in effect for the north facing coasts of
Puerto Rico and Northern U.S. Virgin Islands. A Small Craft
advisories are in effect for the Atlantic waters and local
passages. In addition, there is a high risk of rip currents along the
northwest through northeast facing beaches of Puerto Rico and
Culebra, Vieques as well as the Northern USVI and the east end in
Saint Croix.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 78 91 79 / 60 20 20 20
STT 90 79 89 80 / 40 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
550 AM AST Wed Oct 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...As a mid to upper level trough across the western
Atlantic and into the northern Caribbean weakens during the next
two days or so...a ridge pattern aloft will slowly build across
the eastern Caribbean and over the local islands. Meanwhile...
continue to expect cloudiness and a moist air mass across the
forecast area throughout the day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Although weather conditions are expected to slowly
improve Thursday and into the upcoming weekend...cloudiness and
a moist air mass will prevail today across the forecast area...
with periods of showers and thunderstorms possible. The low level
moisture across the forecast area is pulled by a surface low
north of Hispaniola. At this time, the highest chance of showers
and thunderstorms is along the south and west coast of Puerto Rico
as well as over the USVI and mainly advected by the flow. If there
are breaks in cloud cover, locally induced showers and thunderstorms
will develop and spread across the rest of the forecast area. Due
to already saturated soils, any prolonged rainfall will result in
urban and small stream flooding as well as sharp rises along
rivers and mudslides in areas of steep terrain.

As the surface low moves away and trough aloft weakens...ridge
pattern will build across the area with erosion of low level
moisture expected. Low level moisture is expected to erode as soon
as Thursday. This sharp decrease in low level moisture is expected
to prevail trough the upcoming weekend. However...locally induced
showers and thunderstorms are expected each afternoon across
the western interior of Puerto Rico.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected across the local terminals through
19/13Z with CIGS at around FL100. Winds expected to be light and
variable through 19/13Z...becoming mainly southerly thereafter at
around 10kt. VCSH across the terminals today...mainly for the USVI
and TJBQ/TJMZ. Winds becoming light and variable again after 20/00Z.

&&

.MARINE...Although swells and seas are expected to slowly subside
today...hazardous marine conditions will continue to prevail
across the Atlantic waters and local passages. Seas 5 to 7 feet
with occasional seas up to 9 feet in northerly swells resulting in
breaking waves around 10 feet this morning but subsiding.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 90 78 / 20 10 30 20
STT 87 79 89 81 / 30 30 30 30