STORM2K

 https://twitter.com/WxDeFlitch/status/1101231318312968192

 https://twitter.com/AlbertR_KVUE/status/1101589215991738373

This winter has truly dampened spirits around here, including mine at times. A season of perpetual teases and non events will do that. Take this next cold front for example. Cold of this magnitude, the coldest of winter, would normally create some serious buzz on these pages. Now March is here and without any of the frozen stuff the next system is just kind of ho hum. Carry on nothing to see here. My lonely sliver of hope remaining tells me wrap around flurries will be possible. My hardened sense of reality tells me to wait until next winter. Enjoy the cold Sunday and Monday winter lovers, next season will bring another round of hope.

We had a "Seattle winter" in Houston. Haven't seen the sun much since October. There were 20 rain days (and cold) in November and 18 last month. Rain and 30s-40s-50s all winter. More miserable than cold and sunny. One last gasp of winter tomorrow-Wed (just cold and dry for us all) then bring on spring and some sunshine!

wxman57 wrote:We had a "Seattle winter" in Houston. Haven't seen the sun much since October. There were 20 rain days (and cold) in November and 18 last month. Rain and 30s-40s-50s all winter. More miserable than cold and sunny. One last gasp of winter tomorrow-Wed (just cold and dry for us all) then bring on spring and some sunshine!

There’s another front after this one. Temps look to be below normal for the next couple weeks.

I am mad seeing my parents having their first above normal snowfall winter in Kansas in years just a good 6 hours north (will probably end with 26-28 inches), yet we can't buy a flurry here. Honestly, I would be happy with flurries. But, not even enough moisture for that.

The way this is going, expect a crappy dry spring with no severe weather, then a hot dry summer, then lots of rain in fall to make up for it, but no severe weather. Then a dry winter. lol

Boo this thread!

Cpv17 wrote:

wxman57 wrote:We had a "Seattle winter" in Houston. Haven't seen the sun much since October. There were 20 rain days (and cold) in November and 18 last month. Rain and 30s-40s-50s all winter. More miserable than cold and sunny. One last gasp of winter tomorrow-Wed (just cold and dry for us all) then bring on spring and some sunshine!

There’s another front after this one. Temps look to be below normal for the next couple weeks.

Next weekend looks nice and warm - for cycling.

The past 2-3 days has been a good example of model reliance in forecasting is not always the best. That a forecaster's skills is also necessary. Modelology should not be in lieu of a forecaster's ability to use it as a tool and not as gospel. In a world now where maps and data is numerous and so readily available many forget the old ways. The winds at DFW shifted briefly ESE yesterday that climbed up to the mid 40s. It's since reverted back to the northerly component. We probably won't warm up much more before colder air filters in from the North with the stronger front. It likely won't be the drastic drop due to the fact the surface air is still relatively cold already but will fall at a steady pace.

There is an inherit problem with guidance sometimes disconnecting upper flow from dense surface shallow cold. This has been one of the more dramatic cases where the departure between the two was larger than usual. Didn't get snow out of it, may not but it is something to think about in future when making calls based solely on model runs.

Looking like Monday morning windchills could be 0 or into the negatives.

Ntxw wrote:The past 2-3 days has been a good example of model reliance in forecasting is not always the best. That a forecaster's skills is also necessary. Modelology should not be in lieu of a forecaster's ability to use it as a tool and not as gospel. In a world now where maps and data is numerous and so readily available many forget the old ways. The winds at DFW shifted briefly ESE yesterday that climbed up to the mid 40s. It's since reverted back to the northerly component. We probably won't warm up much more before colder air filters in from the North with the stronger front. It likely won't be the drastic drop due to the fact the surface air is still relatively cold already but will fall at a steady pace.

There is an inherit problem with guidance sometimes disconnecting upper flow from dense surface shallow cold. This has been one of the more dramatic cases where the departure between the two was larger than usual. Didn't get snow out of it, may not but it is something to think about in future when making calls based solely on model runs.

Ntxw, why didnt the -SOI bring us any rain?

Haris wrote:

Ntxw wrote:The past 2-3 days has been a good example of model reliance in forecasting is not always the best. That a forecaster's skills is also necessary. Modelology should not be in lieu of a forecaster's ability to use it as a tool and not as gospel. In a world now where maps and data is numerous and so readily available many forget the old ways. The winds at DFW shifted briefly ESE yesterday that climbed up to the mid 40s. It's since reverted back to the northerly component. We probably won't warm up much more before colder air filters in from the North with the stronger front. It likely won't be the drastic drop due to the fact the surface air is still relatively cold already but will fall at a steady pace.

There is an inherit problem with guidance sometimes disconnecting upper flow from dense surface shallow cold. This has been one of the more dramatic cases where the departure between the two was larger than usual. Didn't get snow out of it, may not but it is something to think about in future when making calls based solely on model runs.

Ntxw, why didnt the -SOI bring us any rain?

The Tennessee Valley took the brunt of the STJ rains. Displaced to Arkansas, MS, TN, and AL. We got some over-performing events in coastal Texas by extension, but the rest of Texas largely got the persistent cloud cover instead. The 30 and 90 day SOI will continue to fall so perhaps we may still see some.

My guess would be that during the -SOI burst we saw several bouts of shallow, cold air intrusions limiting the true heavy rains. The second half of Feb was quite chilly down the plains.

rwfromkansas wrote:I am mad seeing my parents having their first above normal snowfall winter in Kansas in years just a good 6 hours north (will probably end with 26-28 inches), yet we can't buy a flurry here. Honestly, I would be happy with flurries. But, not even enough moisture for that.

The way this is going, expect a crappy dry spring with no severe weather, then a hot dry summer, then lots of rain in fall to make up for it, but no severe weather. Then a dry winter. lol

just a really annoying winter overall, why I am not sad to see it go, and this last cold snap is just such a final waste with zero precip to show for it

Major North-South road in Rockwall has been pre-treated. Surest sign that there will be no wintry precip.

Yukon Cornelius wrote:Looking like Monday morning windchills could be 0 or into the negatives.

Even E TX will likely see sub 10 wind chills. It should easily be the coldest air of the year, but likely to rival last January's temps though wind chills will be similar.

rwfromkansas wrote:I am mad seeing my parents having their first above normal snowfall winter in Kansas in years just a good 6 hours north (will probably end with 26-28 inches), yet we can't buy a flurry here. Honestly, I would be happy with flurries. But, not even enough moisture for that.

The way this is going, expect a crappy dry spring with no severe weather, then a hot dry summer, then lots of rain in fall to make up for it, but no severe weather. Then a dry winter. lol

Severe weather seasons after or during an ongoing Spring El Nino generally are not all that active. Plus decadal trends are on the decrease. Being in the So Plains naturally you will have some days but overall it should be below normal acitvity.

wxman57 wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:

wxman57 wrote:We had a "Seattle winter" in Houston. Haven't seen the sun much since October. There were 20 rain days (and cold) in November and 18 last month. Rain and 30s-40s-50s all winter. More miserable than cold and sunny. One last gasp of winter tomorrow-Wed (just cold and dry for us all) then bring on spring and some sunshine!

There’s another front after this one. Temps look to be below normal for the next couple weeks.

Next weekend looks nice and warm - for cycling.

Next weekend looks kinda warm (mainly Saturday), but also could be wet.

The Euro finally looks a lil bit more favorable for rainfall across Texas! About time! Now watch the next run lose it lol

Cpv17 wrote:The Euro finally looks a lil bit more favorable for rainfall across Texas! About time! Now watch the next run lose it lol

The ensembles are trending much wetter too.

ECM showing severe weather threats too. One run but the signs are nice

Ntxw wrote:

rwfromkansas wrote:I am mad seeing my parents having their first above normal snowfall winter in Kansas in years just a good 6 hours north (will probably end with 26-28 inches), yet we can't buy a flurry here. Honestly, I would be happy with flurries. But, not even enough moisture for that.

The way this is going, expect a crappy dry spring with no severe weather, then a hot dry summer, then lots of rain in fall to make up for it, but no severe weather. Then a dry winter. lol

Severe weather seasons after or during an ongoing Spring El Nino generally are not all that active. Plus decadal trends are on the decrease. Being in the So Plains naturally you will have some days but overall it should be below normal acitvity.

Accuweather thinks it will be a very active severe weather season in the traditional areas known as Tornado Alley: Kansas, Texas and Oklahoma.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather- ... r/70007449