STORM2K

Within 240h (still long range) but increasingly the signal is a western/central trough and Pacific energy. At this time it is not looking good trendwise for eclipse viewing in Texas. Could still change.

Ntxw wrote:Within 240h (still long range) but increasingly the signal is a western/central trough and Pacific energy. At this time it is not looking good trendwise for eclipse viewing in Texas. Could still change.

I hope we get an eastern trough, or the one for April slows down

Ntxw wrote:Within 240h (still long range) but increasingly the signal is a western/central trough and Pacific energy. At this time it is not looking good trendwise for eclipse viewing in Texas. Could still change.

Yeah a lot of people getting negative up here about it but it is still day 10+

cstrunk wrote:I saw a Facebook post from Reed Timmer with a cloud cover forecast for the Total Solar Eclipse on April 8th. Still too far out... but I'll definitely be paying attention to the models next week for that day. We've been planning to go to Waco. I'll be super disappointed if all of Texas is socked in with clouds.

That's it, I'm flying to Nova Scotia instead. Too much Anticipation, gonna make sure the only clouds are in my coffee. And can stop by Saratoga.

Anti-freeze wrote:

cstrunk wrote:I saw a Facebook post from Reed Timmer with a cloud cover forecast for the Total Solar Eclipse on April 8th. Still too far out... but I'll definitely be paying attention to the models next week for that day. We've been planning to go to Waco. I'll be super disappointed if all of Texas is socked in with clouds.

That's it, I'm flying to Nova Scotia instead. Too much Anticipation, gonna make sure the only clouds are in my coffee. And can stop by Saratoga.

Carly Simon, is that you?

You can of course go to pivotalweather and look at the free model runs (GFS, Canadian etc) and select cloud cover. Again note it's 240hours + right now but you'd look for storm trends. All of them have a stormy signal within this time frame. Hopefully it either comes in faster and clears out sooner or slows way down.



Pivol Weather Site

I think texas will have good views for the eclipse, i am really not that concerned with rain chances, cloud cover may be somewhat of an issue, but overall most folks will have a good view for the eclipse

Stratton23 wrote:I think texas will have good views for the eclipse, i am really not that concerned with rain chances, cloud cover may be somewhat of an issue, but overall most folks will have a good view for the eclipse

Not according to the CPC.

CPV17 globals models say no rain on the day of the eclipse we will see, still a week and a half out, could easily change

Usually you have evening storms but early afternoon is fine. I’m not worried unless it’s going to be a more steady rain scenario. Then…uh oh.

Monday definitely is looking concerning, although I'm not sold on a big tornado event yet. Most models seem to be pointing towards a significant wind/hail event, and most of the ones showing a more westward trend seem to have a less impressive system (outside of the NAM which I can't take seriously at this range). That being said it's still a few days out so a lot can/will change as we get closer. Definitely looks like a nice event though overall.

Anti-freeze wrote:

cstrunk wrote:I saw a Facebook post from Reed Timmer with a cloud cover forecast for the Total Solar Eclipse on April 8th. Still too far out... but I'll definitely be paying attention to the models next week for that day. We've been planning to go to Waco. I'll be super disappointed if all of Texas is socked in with clouds.

That's it, I'm flying to Nova Scotia instead. Too much Anticipation, gonna make sure the only clouds are in my coffee. And can stop by Saratoga.

You're so vain

I just am gonna keep remembering the number of snowstorms we had at this range and not one verified lets not start now

But first yeah Monday is the highest severe threat we've had here so far

ElectricStorm wrote:Monday definitely is looking concerning, although I'm not sold on a big tornado event yet. Most models seem to be pointing towards a significant wind/hail event, and most of the ones showing a more westward trend seem to have a less impressive system (outside of the NAM which I can't take seriously at this range). That being said it's still a few days out so a lot can/will change as we get closer. Definitely looks like a nice event though overall.

Global models don't seem to be that impressed overall right now. Could be a pretty strong cap in place that makes this all very conditional despite other parameters in place for severe weather, but still a few days to sort it all out. Short range models typically handle the dynamics better anyway and so tomorrow we should get our first real hint.

April is looking really wet across Texas.

bubba hotep wrote:April is looking really wet across Texas.

Yep. I think the first week will be on the drier side but after that it looks pretty wet.

Starting to get a little more concerned for a very large hail threat for OK on Monday. Tornado threat still doesn't look too crazy yet but at least some threat is still there. I think better tornado potential will be further NE along the warm front. Expecting a 30 hatched hail area on the Day 2 outlook tonight. Looks like a dangerous day overall.

Day 2 outlook is out now, and it's pretty much about what I expected, 5% tornado and 30# hail looks good for OK.

Happy Easter to those who celebrate!

GFS is still showing storms popping up over TX/AR starting around 18z Monday the 8th and turning into a nasty system by Tuesday morning.

I think it’s safe to say Texas is a bust for the eclipse. That’s why I get for deciding to fly halfway across the country instead of just driving to update NY or VT or NH.