STORM2K

bubba hotep wrote:Massive forecast bust for the eastern areas of DFW. High was forecast at 83 with 80% of heavy rain. Not a drop of rain and almost 90 outside...

Models have also cut back on totals as the boundary hasn't made any progress SE and all the rain is staying to the NW side of the boundary.

All that will move E tonight. Don’t worry

I wouldn't call it bust yet. Where it is raining hard right now to the NW dews up there are in the 50s and lower 60s, the lift from the boundary rather than moisture content is in control as far as today. Once the greater area of lift shifts east, infused with what's left of Pamela the moisture content to the east and south is much higher near 70dp. They will be very efficient rain producers once it arrives tonight. Can make it up quickly.

Latest radar is looking better. Bust cancel. lol.

Ntxw wrote:I wouldn't call it bust yet. Where it is raining hard right now to the NW dews up there are in the 50s and lower 60s, the lift from the boundary rather than moisture content is in control as far as today. Once the greater area of lift shifts east, infused with what's left of Pamela the moisture content to the east and south is much higher near 70dp. They will be very efficient rain producers once it arrives tonight. Can make it up quickly.

I should have clarified that I was just pointing out that today was a massive bust (for those keeping score, yesterday was as well with 70% forecast and almost no rain in DFW). Models are obviously struggling with the setup but the extra heating to the SE of the boundary probably results in a net positive vs. rain moving in quicker.

I do think the heaviest rain was supposed to come overnight, I just got overly excited that I only saw .05 today and zip yesterday. It’s on the way though it looks like.

Raining again at my house.

It’s a good thing this isn’t a severe setup. Seeing discrete storms moving nne ahead of an eastward moving line tends to give me an uneasy feeling.

cheezyWXguy wrote:It’s a good thing this isn’t a severe setup. Seeing discrete storms moving nne ahead of an eastward moving line tends to give me an uneasy feeling.

Yeah, especially on what happened this morning . . .

Is more supposed to develop from the west? Back edge almost here.

Dangerous situation developing over AUS-SA corrdior

Haris wrote:Dangerous situation developing over AUS-SA corrdior

I think you’re right. Eastward motion slowing with more development behind the main line still to come through.

Not even an inch at DFW airport.

Apparently this is it. I’m stunned. I thought it was supposed to rain all night.

Stuff south of Austin is extreme though.

Ok guys, I don't care about DFW, yall tell me about Houston with this cool front.

Ntxw wrote:Not even an inch at DFW airport.

DFW airport has had some bad luck with higher totals all around there this yr. I ended up 3.5" IMBY, kind of shocked.

Looked like Tarrant up through the airport got reduced totals, while Dallas east got more. At least some areas of the metro did cash in ultimately. Now, on to an amazing weekend. Looking forward to opening those windows.

2.77" IMBY for the entire event here at the High 5.

4.9 at the house in W Austin.

I heard La Grange got about 10” and Gonzales got about 12”…

2.5 to 3-inches in Grayson County. Absolute flood at my house in Denison. No bust here...