Texas Fall 2019

[Cpv17]

Hurricane season still very much open for Texas. All eyes from me on the tropics over the next week.

Yeah Karen could make it if theres enough ridging and it survives

Big if at this point but there looks to be crazy ridging to our east

I just looked at the latest 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks and if that were to verify then I could easily see Karen getting into the western half of the Gulf.

[weatherdude1108]

Per EWX:

Notes...
For those keeping score at home, through the first 21 days of
September, San Antonio, Austin Camp Mabry, and Del Rio are all
currently sitting at their hottest Septembers on record, with Austin
Bergstrom at 2nd hottest.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1

[Portastorm]

Hurricane season still very much open for Texas. All eyes from me on the tropics over the next week.

Yeah Karen could make it if theres enough ridging and it survives

Big if at this point but there looks to be crazy ridging to our east

I just looked at the latest 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks and if that were to verify then I could easily see Karen getting into the western half of the Gulf.

Normally I would be dismissive of any tropical threat to Texas in October as hurricanes hitting Texas in that month are rare. But this weather pattern is not normal and it's acting like it's late August ... so I completely agree with y'all here. I'm also warily watching the tropics and am concerned about the next two weeks.

[Cpv17]

Yeah Karen could make it if theres enough ridging and it survives

Big if at this point but there looks to be crazy ridging to our east

I just looked at the latest 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks and if that were to verify then I could easily see Karen getting into the western half of the Gulf.

Normally I would be dismissive of any tropical threat to Texas in October as hurricanes hitting Texas in that month are rare. But this weather pattern is not normal and it's acting like it's late August ... so I completely agree with y'all here. I'm also warily watching the tropics and am concerned about the next two weeks.

Both the Euro and GFS have two tropical systems in the west Gulf. Crazy stuff man.

[Brent]

Yeah Karen could make it if theres enough ridging and it survives

Big if at this point but there looks to be crazy ridging to our east

I just looked at the latest 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks and if that were to verify then I could easily see Karen getting into the western half of the Gulf.

Normally I would be dismissive of any tropical threat to Texas in October as hurricanes hitting Texas in that month are rare. But this weather pattern is not normal and it's acting like it's late August ... so I completely agree with y'all here. I'm also warily watching the tropics and am concerned about the next two weeks.

Totally agree its been record heat east of us for weeks and more on the way nothing October like anytime soon

If it does go west doesnt seem to be an obvious reason it wouldnt go really far west

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1175901552160194560



 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1175905169927802881

[Brent]

Too bad its the 18z GFS but what a front!!! Verbatim this would be HiGHS in the 60s and 70s

Edited to add the 0z GFS does still have a front though in this timeframe but it is not as extreme as the 18z.

just to see I checked TWC's app and it has average temps(mid 80s for highs/60s for lows) in this timeframe which would still be an improvement over now

[Brent]

the 0z Euro has an almost unbelievable ridge that would send Karen into Mexico lol it literally moves due west for 6 days

[Yukon Cornelius]

80° with on and off rain. At least the first day of fall kind of is like a fall day.

[CaptinCrunch]

Today is the Autumn equinox where we have equal part of day and night. From this point forward darkness will gain control and we shall be Less in the light.

[weatherdude1108]

Can't get here soon enough. I'm gunna be peeved if this is still teasing us!

[Brent]

FWD mentioning possible cooler weather next week with caution

The deterministic runs of the GFS and ECMWF, as well as some of
the European ensemble members seem to hint at a cold front towards
the end of the first week of October (around October 3-5). There
has not been much run to run consistency however, and the folks at
CPC don`t really seem to be buying into it yet in their extended
range outlooks. As anyone who follows North Texas weather knows,
there have been quite a few "false alarm" model cold fronts
through September, and this could be another. Having said that, it
is noteworthy that the ECMWF and GFS are both fairly aggressive.
I`m not getting my hopes up yet, but we shall see...

[utpmg]

Same with EWX (austin/san antonio):

Looking
ahead,the GFS shows a front on Day 9 with the ECMWF on Day 10
moving into Texas. We have seen this movie before and will try not to
get too excited until they keep it for a few days and it gets into
the better skill of the models.

[Ntxw]

96/78F today at DFW. One year ago on this date it was 72/66F.

Was 99F back in 2005 on the very date, consequently during the busiest Atlantic hurricane season. I checked some of the busiest Atlantic Hurricane seasons into September and there is a very distinct correlation with DFW's hot/dry during this period. The more activity there is, the greater the risk for warmth to linger deeper into the month and late.

[Ntxw]

On the other hand though, the high plains will get cold later this week.

So if and when the pattern allows it we will be able to tap into some of that. A good bet would be as the calendar turns we should see the first "real" Fall front.

[hriverajr]

96/78F today at DFW. One year ago on this date it was 72/66F.

Was 99F back in 2005 on the very date, consequently during the busiest Atlantic hurricane season. I checked some of the busiest Atlantic Hurricane seasons into September and there is a very distinct correlation with DFW's hot/dry during this period. The more activity there is, the greater the risk for warmth to linger deeper into the month and late.

I would hypothesize the reverse....cold fronts moving in with cooler drier air and associated upper air flow (cause) will often decrease tropical activity....(effect)

[Brent]

The GFS continues to be bullish on a rather drastic front late next week this run has HIGHS in Dallas around 60

[South Texas Storms]

The extended range GFS sure wants to end our drought! Too bad it's in fantasy land. Brings a slow-moving tropical system northward into the state and dumps some hefty rainfall totals across much of central TX.

[Cpv17]

The extended range GFS sure wants to end our drought! Too bad it's in fantasy land. Brings a slow-moving tropical system northward into the state and dumps some hefty rainfall totals across much of central TX.

The GFS has been pretty consistent with some type of gyre coming up from the Central America region around the 300 hour mark. Also, with the models suggesting lower pressures in that region and a strong SE ridge, who knows? Weird weather pattern.

[Brent]

The extended range GFS sure wants to end our drought! Too bad it's in fantasy land. Brings a slow-moving tropical system northward into the state and dumps some hefty rainfall totals across much of central TX.

The GFS has been pretty consistent with some type of gyre coming up from the Central America region around the 300 hour mark. Also, with the models suggesting lower pressures in that region and a strong SE ridge, who knows? Weird weather pattern.

All i know is something has to change soon but yeah this heat and dry weather has not been just confined to Texas