Texas Spring 2018

[Haris]

Y’all the gfs has really lowered rain totals for Austin ? Do y’all think we can get a few inches still? I feel doubtful for some reason but NWS seems hopeful with 2-3

[bubba hotep]

EPS shows potential for record breaking cold with members pushing 20F middle of next week at DFW and then the control shows nearly another freeze on the 10th. A lot of the SSW analogs did show lagged cold for the Southern Plains but this cycle puts that in April and May so it was always a question of what that would look like given the overall background climo vs SSW climo.

[Ntxw]

Y’all the gfs has really lowered rain totals for Austin ? Do y’all think we can get a few inches still? I feel doubtful for some reason but NWS seems hopeful with 2-3

My expectation would be 1-3" along and east of I-35 with 3-5" in the northeast quarter of the state. Subject to localized higher amounts in stronger storms

[Ntxw]

EPS shows potential for record breaking cold with members pushing 20F middle of next week at DFW and then the control shows nearly another freeze on the 10th. A lot of the SSW analogs did show lagged cold for the Southern Plains but this cycle puts that in April and May so it was always a question of what that would look like given the overall background climo vs SSW climo.

I think the background state is changing. The rut of relentless warmth (increasing 500mb heights) of the past few years doesn't look as prevalent. I think this year will be different as both the Pacific and Atlantic have changed. SSW is just one of those changes that signals more than just a cold season event. Also solar is making an impact. The high latitudes of the NHEM have been quite cold this winter and still are early spring

[bubba hotep]

EPS shows potential for record breaking cold with members pushing 20F middle of next week at DFW and then the control shows nearly another freeze on the 10th. A lot of the SSW analogs did show lagged cold for the Southern Plains but this cycle puts that in April and May so it was always a question of what that would look like given the overall background climo vs SSW climo.

I think the background state is changing. The rut of relentless warmth (increasing 500mb heights) of the past few years doesn't look as prevalent. I think this year will be different as both the Pacific and Atlantic have changed. SSW is just one of those changes that signals more than just a cold season event. Also solar is making an impact. The high latitudes of the NHEM have been quite cold this winter and still are early spring

I agree. However, I was taking a more simplistic view of analogs showing potential for lagged cold post SSW and
this year's lag occurring during seasonally warming months. Feb '07 event was followed by the April '07 Easter snow that occurred just south of I20.

Now, on the larger scale, I've been watching what you pointed out and I think we well see our coldest winter in a long time here in '18/19.

[wxman57]

Next Wednesday marks the start of the National Tropical Weather Conference on S. Padre Island. Warm, sunny, south Texas beaches! Well, the Euro kind of disagrees with that statement. May have to pack a coat, hat, and gloves! Lows in the upper 40s with highs only in the upper 50s? GFS says lows in the low 70s and highs in the upper 70s. I prefer the GFS...

[Brent]

The 0z Euro has upper 20s in DFW on April 4th Officially 2 freezes on the 3rd and 4th at the airport proper

Mid 30s in Austin and upper 30s down to the coast

Cold air starts flooding in on April 2nd(a week from today). Easter Sunday is sunny and near 80 before the bottom drops out

With some frozen precipitation for most all of N. Texas.

1-2 inches of snow in DFW... biggest snowstorm of the "winter" in April per the Euro!

[Haris]

I guess the winter thread might come back

[Brent]

Enhanced risk upgrade for Wichita Falls area today

[Ntxw]

CMC looks a bit chilly. Maybe 40s for daytime highs early next week?

[Yukon Cornelius]

Enhanced risk upgrade for Wichita Falls area today

Thanks for the heads up.

[Brent]

CMC looks a bit chilly. Maybe 40s for daytime highs early next week?

20s at the end of the CMC In Dallas Time to reopen the winter thread

This is just like the winter was actually... GFS going what cold

[weatherdude1108]

Enhanced risk upgrade for Wichita Falls area today

Thanks for the heads up.

They mentioned large/significant hail was the main driver for the enhanced upgrade.

[gboudx]

Update from Jeff Lindner:

Mid week storm system will bring a threat of severe weather and heavy rainfall to the region late Tuesday-early Thursday.

An upper level storm system will deepen over the western US and then progress into TX over the next few days resulting in multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Moist and unstable Gulf air mass will continue to flow inland off the western Gulf of Mexico, but the air mass is currently capped over SE TX and not expecting much shower or thunderstorm development today into early Tuesday. As a slow moving cold front edges closer to the region on Tuesday rain chances will begin to rise NW of a line from Columbus to Huntsville for Tuesday evening. Front will make very slow progress across SE TX on Wednesday and exit the coast early Thursday.

Severe Threat:

SPC has already outlooked much of the area for a slight risk of severe thunderstorms on Wednesday with primary threats being large hail and damaging winds up to 60mph. Main question with the severe threat this far out is does the surface front or associated convective outflows undercut the developing thunderstorms resulting in the cells becoming quickly elevated and reducing the severe risk. This time of year this is a fairly likely outcome, but the slow moving nature of the front and only modest post frontal cooler air does tend to contradict this potential. Instability and shear will be favorable for severe thunderstorms especially late Tuesday NW and then Wednesday across much of the area.

Heavy Rainfall:

Bigger potential may end up being heavy rainfall and localized flooding. Overall slow movement of the system and very high moisture levels with PWS of 1.8-2.0 inches by Wednesday support repeated cell training with heavy rainfall rates. Will broadbrush the entire region with 1-3 inches and isolated totals of 4 inches will be possible. Saturated air column support high hourly rainfall rates of 1-2 inches which may lead to street flooding. Overall ground conditions have dried since late February and spring green up has commenced which should help to reduce run-off rates compared to early this year. Areas along the Trinity River remain sensitive to heavy rainfall and given the widespread amounts over the next several days…rises back to near flood stage could result along the Trinity.

[bubba hotep]

Flash Flood watch for DFW.

[bubba hotep]

Some agitated CU south of DFW, model soundings don't look overly favorable but maybe a storm or two tries to get going an moves north?

[1900hurricane]

I seriously cannot believe how good it feels here ahead of the front. Hard to beat warm, sunny, and breezy.

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/978409254683119623

[Lagreeneyes03]

CMC looks a bit chilly. Maybe 40s for daytime highs early next week?

I'll take the GFS...the CMC that's my worst nightmare. It's NASCAR next week, we already got postponed to today from Sunday due to a snowstorm in Martinsville, VA over the weekend.

Winter be gone! Y'all had your fun!

[Brent]

well the 0z Euro has backed off the freeze in DFW but is still pretty cold to open April and now has the front blasting through Sunday afternoon with 30s Monday morning

The GFS has gotten colder... now has highs in the 50s on Sunday after mid 80s Saturday then warms back up and even hits 90 end of next week but dumps more chilly wx in the LR, no freezes but still for April and lately pretty cold

[Yukon Cornelius]

Nonstop rain, mostly heavy since early yesterday. This should definitely pull us out of the drought.