Texas Fall 2019

[dhweather]

The GFS continues to be bullish on a rather drastic front late next week this run has HIGHS in Dallas around 60 https://i.ibb.co/1MTr7PN/gfs-T2ma-scus-44.png

250 hours out, take it to the bank!

[dhweather]

My allergies haven't actually been too bad here, not like what they were like in Texas lol. It was always interesting going from having nearly no allergies in Ohio to nearly as soon as I entered Texas on a plane I'd start sneezing.

Man, they are terrible here. For me, particularly, ragweed and mountain cedar, and most everything in the spring.

[weatherdude1108]

The extended range GFS sure wants to end our drought! Too bad it's in fantasy land. Brings a slow-moving tropical system northward into the state and dumps some hefty rainfall totals across much of central TX.

Don't all droughts in Texas end with a flood? Seems like it.

[CaptinCrunch]

I found this artical to be a pretty good read as it covers last winters early predictions and what actually happened.

https://opensnow.com/news/post/did-anyone-accurately-predict-the-2018-19-winter-season

[Brent]

Fropa still 9 days out but it is consistent

[dhweather]

From the FWD AFD - respect for the ridge of death.


Initial glances at early next week don`t look overly promising
for much of a cool down. In fact, the deterministic ECMWF and GFS
appear to rebuild the ridge a little quicker and further to the
west compared to previous model iterations. This should keep North
and Central Texas above normal through at least Wednesday. There
is a slim glimmer of hope for a cold front next week and the GFS
and ECMWF have more or less been in agreement regarding possible
FROPA. For now, let`s not get our hopes up just yet as this is
very far out.

[starsfan65]

From the FWD AFD - respect for the ridge of death.


Initial glances at early next week don`t look overly promising
for much of a cool down. In fact, the deterministic ECMWF and GFS
appear to rebuild the ridge a little quicker and further to the
west compared to previous model iterations. This should keep North
and Central Texas above normal through at least Wednesday. There
is a slim glimmer of hope for a cold front next week and the GFS
and ECMWF have more or less been in agreement regarding possible
FROPA. For now, let`s not get our hopes up just yet as this is
very far out.

I hate this weather!!

[Brent]

From the FWD AFD - respect for the ridge of death.


Initial glances at early next week don`t look overly promising
for much of a cool down. In fact, the deterministic ECMWF and GFS
appear to rebuild the ridge a little quicker and further to the
west compared to previous model iterations. This should keep North
and Central Texas above normal through at least Wednesday. There
is a slim glimmer of hope for a cold front next week and the GFS
and ECMWF have more or less been in agreement regarding possible
FROPA. For now, let`s not get our hopes up just yet as this is
very far out.

It has to end soon climo favors it lol

[CaptinCrunch]

It's raining here at work @ I-30/I-35W FTW

[weatherdude1108]

Maybe? I know I've seen this "dog and pony show" before. I'm fine with warmer than normal temperatures as long as we get wet.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
246 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
Skies are partly to mostly cloudy at the present time with some
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms ongoing east of the
I35/37 corridors. Upper heights have diminished today as a weak upper
low moves into the region from the Gulf of Mexico. This feature has
allowed for the better coverage of precip and for temperatures to be
cooler today. In fact, temperatures at this time today compared to
yesterday are about 1-4 degrees cooler for most sites. This
convection is expected to diminish in coverage by this evening and
will mention no activity for the tonight period. Lows tonight will
bottom out in the lower to middle 70s.

For tomorrow, moisture values are expected to drop off as the upper
ridge slowly builds back into region. This will equate to highs
tomorrow back up a degree or two versus today, in the middle to upper
90s. In addition, am not expecting any rain for tomorrow through
tomorrow night. Lows tomorrow night will be in the middle 70s for
most locations.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
The dry weather is expected to continue for Thursday as weak ridging
remains in place across Texas. A decent trough axis will pass through
the Plains on Friday, but the better dynamics will stay to our north.
However, this feature will increase the low-level flow across our
region and in response moisture will begin to increase. This will
allow for the low chance of rain to return to the eastern counties
Friday afternoon. The ridge will be estabilished to our east on
Saturday through Tuesday which keeps our region in deep southerly
flow. This will keep moisture values elevated for the continued
chances of rain through the period for a decent portion of the area.
Will forecast the highest PoPs on Saturday and Sunday with PoPs at
40-50 percent across a large portion of the area. Models continue to
show the chance of a cold front just beyond the forecast package with
the GFS showing the FROPA on Thursday and the ECMWFCanadian on
Friday. Will continue to watch this and see.

[Brent]

If only GFS. I dont really see it on the Euro although there is a front to our NW

[BrokenGlass]

If only GFS. I dont really see it on the Euro although there is a front to our NW

Someday the GFS will be right.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[CaptinCrunch]

The GFS is the last model I count on. First the EURO, Canadian, and so on......

[somethingfunny]

I count on climatology and October is almost here so.... we should have a high below 90 within the next week or two.

[Portastorm]

I count on climatology and October is almost here so.... we should have a high below 90 within the next week or two.

Well, both the GFS and Euro for several days now have shown consistently a change to more "normal" or seasonal temperatures by that first weekend in October. Perhaps the Endless Summer of 2019 is on its last legs.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I count on climatology and October is almost here so.... we should have a high below 90 within the next week or two.

Well, both the GFS and Euro for several days now have shown consistently a change to more "normal" or seasonal temperatures by that first weekend in October. Perhaps the Endless Summer of 2019 is on its last legs.

YOU. ARE. DAMN. RIGHT. IT. IS!!!

I'M COMING OUT OF HIBERNATION NEXT WEEK, BABY!

[CaptinCrunch]

While Winter makes an early appareance in the northern rockies, the ridge of DEATH continues to hold strong for Texas. Models do show a front for NTX next week around October 3rd, but it only brings highs down to the mid 80's and lows in the upper 60's....

We shall see

[JDawg512]

I count on climatology and October is almost here so.... we should have a high below 90 within the next week or two.

We can't go by old climatology anymore because we are in the midst of a climate shift on a global scale. October is a transitional month in any event but personally I won't be getting Hope's up until there is a front at the doorstep of the Rain Cave. Actually forget cooler weather, I want rain darn it!!!

[Brent]

https://www.weather.gov/images/otx/WxStory/WeatherStory2.png?0308b889a115802bc7dceed496c64493

While Winter makes an early appareance in the northern rockies, the ridge of DEATH continues to hold strong for Texas. Models do show a front for NTX next week around October 3rd, but it only brings highs down to the mid 80's and lows in the upper 60's....

We shall see

well average temps would be an improvement used to have 50s here at night by October at least a couple times and can't even get 60s this year

looking at the DFW climo page we're almost on pace with an average August this month...

[CaptinCrunch]

https://www.weather.gov/images/otx/WxStory/WeatherStory2.png?0308b889a115802bc7dceed496c64493

While Winter makes an early appareance in the northern rockies, the ridge of DEATH continues to hold strong for Texas. Models do show a front for NTX next week around October 3rd, but it only brings highs down to the mid 80's and lows in the upper 60's....

We shall see

well average temps would be an improvement used to have 50s here at night by October at least a couple times and can't even get 60s this year

looking at the DFW climo page we're almost on pace with an average August this month...

This is why I said we'll see, The normal H/L for October 1st 84/65 and by October 31st 73/52

Monday into the middle of next week should feature dwindling rain
chances as the mid-level ridge slowly retrogrades back to the
west and southwest. Beyond the range of our official
forecast...model agreement with respect to a cold front during the
middle to end portion of next week continues to be fair, though
there has been some model run-to-run variability. The 00 UTC
ECMWF and GFS do align better with respect to timing and suggest a
midday Thursday FROPA across most of North and Central Texas.
Mid-level ridging across the region would likely result in little
to no rain/storm chances with FROPA, but decent pressure rises
and stronger 925mb flow imply the potential for a good north
breeze and solid CAA. Preliminary glances at high temperatures
from guidance (should it verify) suggests that Thursday high
temperatures will only make it into the low 80s along the Red
River to upper 80s/low 90s across Central Texas. For now, stay
tuned as refinements to the forecast are likely.

Also the ridge is forecast to build back in, sucks don't it!!