STORM2K

Travis Herzog ABC 13

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9PM TUESDAY UPDATE:

The weather pattern is shifting tonight, and that impact is that we will likely be in the direct path of more rain tomorrow morning when you wake up.

First, my heart goes out to our friends in the Golden Triangle. They too were devastated by Harvey’s flood, and after 6-13” of rain these last two days from Beaumont to Bridge City, we got word today that some homes have again taken on water with numerous streets and summer schools closed now and tomorrow.

Meanwhile in Houston, you can see from this estimated rainfall map that we’ve picked up far less rain in the 1-3” range. The intense training storm band aimed at Beaumont today partially protected us from getting anything worse coming at us from the Gulf.

That rain band has now weakened, which has opened the door for new rain bands to form and blow intense downpours back toward the Texas coastline. It’s looking like we’ll have a wetter morning commute tomorrow in Houston than what we had today. I just hope the rain continues to come down at a manageable rate and we don’t get one of those intense rain bands aimed at us tomorrow. We will be in the direct path of very strong Gulf winds called a “low level jet,” and this will increase the odds that we get more rain than we have in days past.

Flash flood event unfolding across metro Corpus Christi this evening with several high water rescues in progress from vehicles. Dangerous flash flooding will be possible as SE low level flow increases on eastern flank of mid level low focusing extended training of intense rains

Cpv17 wrote:I’m not impressed with this system so far. It’s been a dud for me. There’s just not much deep convection associated with it.

Depends on where you’re at bud. I’d be glad to send some your way. I had a five gallon bucket sitting outside and it was overflowing. Many homes in Port Arthur and surrounding areas are flooded again (not finished from Harvey).. sorry you’re not impressed

Lightning strikes now showing-up offshore SE of Corpus. This is going to get really bad for them.

jasons wrote:Lightning strikes now showing-up offshore SE of Corpus. This is going to get really bad for them.

3-4 inches in an hour.

Several roads are flooded throughout the city and high water rescues are taking place. One report of motorists stranded on the roof of their vehicles.

Nederlander wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:I’m not impressed with this system so far. It’s been a dud for me. There’s just not much deep convection associated with it.

Depends on where you’re at bud. I’d be glad to send some your way. I had a five gallon bucket sitting outside and it was overflowing. Many homes in Port Arthur and surrounding areas are flooded again (not finished from Harvey).. sorry you’re not impressed

That area was never forecasted to see those totals. You guys were on the fringe of the heavier totals with a sharp gradient just to the west. Like I mentioned earlier there are two areas of heavier rain. One in your area and one towards Corpus and the WPC had the heavier totals around Matagorda which is pretty much exactly in between the two areas that are getting it now, so that’s why I’m calling it a bust so far. Just goes to show you once again that the models can get the amount of rain correct (or close to it), but they struggle with placement. Meanwhile, in my area (where the heaviest totals were forecasted) we’ve gotten about 2-3” so far. Nice rain, but I was expecting more. We’ve gotten 3” so far and there isn’t even any water in our ditches which goes to show you how dry it was around here. Hoping to get a couple more inches before it’s all done.

20 Unit Streamflow values showing dangerous flash flooding on going in Corpus Christi.

It's been nothing like I've seen before. Tropical, sub-tropical what the hect is this thing? It almost looks like a tropical storm making landfall a few days back via visible satellite. Strange!

Corpus hasn't seen this much rain in a while especially the west side. We've always had to rely on morning showers and due to subsidence after the so called "warm front pushed through around 12pm" if no rain then no rain. Death ridge! ACK

1-min scans setup for overnight Texas rain event.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso1-14-48-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbars=

bubba hotep wrote:1-min scans setup for overnight Texas rain event.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso1-14-48-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbars=

Man I wish this was the weekend. That looks crazy.

Big BOOM just now. Hope I can sleep

Irak, I hope you are OK down there buddy. It's no fun when it gets past the "of crap, my house could actually flood" part. Really thinking about my friends and relatives to the east and west of me tonight.

OK, regarding those of us in the Houston area,

That eastern band over the Gulf really saved us today. It's terrible for the Golden triangle area (and now Corpus but for other reasons), but it cutoff inflow and kept us in a dry moat of subsidence all day. There are really a few concerns to monitor overnight however:

* The convection out of over the Gulf is gone. It's wide open again for bands to form near the coast and move inland.

* The LLJ may get established over SE Texas tonight, setting-up a training band(s) beneath it.

* As the low/circulation has pivoted a bit to the W/SW today, it will change the orientation of the bands as they move onshore to stretch a little more SE to NW, instead of SSW to NNW. Basically, it will determine training patterns for any bands that setup. This small detail will become very important where any bands intersect the LLJ, as it will draw-out a lot of moisture in isolated locations, potentially like an open fire hydrant.

Nice job by the ECMWF and NAM depicting a low centered over S TX kind of out of nowhere from a few days out. I checked it early today and the 1009 was at the surface. What I think might have happened was that the mid level energy drifted toward the NW Gulf while the surface trough formed a closed low once inland. Probably 6 or 7 different posts pointed out that it didn’t make sense. But there it is. Lots of rain threats still for coastal Texas throughout today. We will have to see if the low spins out, moves off W or SW or if the energy just goes south. Y’all be safe.

Travis Herzog ABC 13

See full post in link below:
https://www.facebook.com/ABC13TravisHerzog/

7AM WEDNESDAY UPDATE:

Today it's looking like our turn to get heavier rain than we've had all week. We've been the fortunate ones so far along the Texas Gulf coast. The large stationary band of rain that's been aimed at Beaumont the past two days helped shield us from all the flooding rains observed in the Golden Triangle and Corpus Christi.

That band is now gone, which means the Gulf is open for business today.

We're still in good shape as of this writing, but another Flash Flood Watch is in effect until 7PM for part of our region.

Everything I'm seeing today points toward numerous slow-moving, heavy storms possible for our region off-and-on thru Thursday morning. These will dump a quick 1-2" in most spots, but isolated regions could pick up 4-6". If those higher accumulations fall over any of our creeks or bayous, they'll fill up quickly with water like South Mayde Creek did yesterday when nearly 5" fell on the west side of Houston.

Again, if we can make it to Thursday afternoon with no major issues, then we can breathe a collective sigh of relief. That's when the drier air will arrive and push out the tropical moisture.

Poor Corpus ... looks like y'all are getting pounded again with heavy rain. Hope Irak and cctxhurricanewatcher are doing alright. Thinking of you guys.

Thanks everyone for the concern we seem to be handling most of it since it's been consistent "medium I guess" in the amount coming down which allows for decent run off into the creeks and ditches. I sure hope it continues that way.

McAllen to Harlingen has been hit very hard in S Texas. Water rescues from homes underway in Weslaco which has been hit particularly hard.

Wow didn't know that and I should of kept my mouth shut because it is really coming down now.