Texas Fall-2016

[Ralph's Weather]

Looking at the tropics, where does it look like Newton's moisture will go? I could stand for some more rain on my yard. I don't follow models cloudlet until Fall which looks to be coming soon.

[Ntxw]

CPC is quietly seeing it. Also they are expecting above normal precipitation during the period as well.

[Ntxw]

Looking at the tropics, where does it look like Newton's moisture will go? I could stand for some more rain on my yard. I don't follow models cloudlet until Fall which looks to be coming soon.

Newton is now a hurricane. Most guidance expects his moisture to remain west of I-35 and more strongly towards far west Texas and New Mexico. Our best chances for rain will be with the frontal passages late week

[Brent]

The 18z GFS has 52 degrees at DFW next Wednesday, and highs in the mid 70s... Probably some 40s north and east of the metro.

Several days of highs near/below 80.

[Ntxw]

Cold fronts mid month of Sept is not anything out of the ordinary. However, getting below 50 degrees (or close) is. A couple of famous years that had mid Sept (around the Equinox) dip below 50 at DFW includes (but not limited) 1983 and 1989. Both holding several of the record lows between the 21st to the 25th of Sept. Amarillo had it's earliest freeze in 1983.

[Tireman4]

From HGX

Friday and beyond...
Weak subtropical ridging aloft looks to remain the main feature
directly over our area for the weekend into next week, but that`s
not to say there is nothing interesting that could impact our
weather in the longer term. Of most intrigue are two upper level
troughs sweeping through the northern stream that look to bring
associated surface fronts near, or perhaps even into our area. The
first will have to be particularly watched for interaction with
the remnants of current Hurricane Newton. This could result in
some significant rainfall for the Desert Southwest up towards the
TX Panhandle and Western Oklahoma. But, will there also be
potential for a deeper push of the cold front? Tonight`s model
runs say no, but can see that as a feature to watch.

The next trough looks to come in the early to middle portions of
next week. In previous nights, it has been quite strong, easily
pushing a cold front through our area. Tonight has backed off some
on that thought, with both the GFS and Euro bringing through a
considerably more blunted trough and a front that may or may not
cross into our area. Fortunately plenty of time for this to work
itself out, but it would not be a surprise to finally get a front
to work through, as it is climatologically about the right time to
be seeing the first significant front of the season.

[Ralph's Weather]

From HGX...But, will there also be
potential for a deeper push of the cold front? Tonight`s model
runs say no, but can see that as a feature to watch...

I was just looking at the models and noticed that they are backing way off on a significant front next week.

[weatherdude1108]

Just got a HEAVY rain soaker with wind here at work. People were like, "Is it raining??"

I love the rain, but I happened to wash and wax my wife's and my vehicles yesterday and early this morning, based on a 20 percent chance of rain EAST of here. It has been a while since I washed the cars. Last couple times there was a chance of rain, I did not wash, and it did not rain. Figures.

Like clockwork!

[JDawg512]

Just got a HEAVY rain soaker with wind here at work. People were like, "Is it raining??"

I love the rain, but I happened to wash and wax my wife's and my vehicles yesterday and early this morning, based on a 20 percent chance of rain EAST of here. It has been a while since I washed the cars. Last couple times there was a chance of rain, I did not wash, and it did not rain. Figures.

Like clockwork!

Had 3 rounds of quick downpours yesterday, two in the morning and one lasting a good 15 minuets in the afternoon. Also had some rain the day before. All together it added to a bit over a quarter of an inch.

Other than an isolated shower or two somewhere this afternoon, looks like that will be it till Saturday.

I guess everyone is interested in the front next week. Will be nice to have a hint of Autumn especially at night.

[Ntxw]

Low 90s in August felt great! Low 90s in September feels horrible . Need crisp mornings.

[Tireman4]

Low 90s in August felt great! Low 90s in September feels horrible . Need crisp mornings.

I guess the models will flip flop on the front until 5 days out?

[Brent]

The gfs has lost any sign of a decent front for the next 2 weeks...

And yes it's amazing how low 90s feel so much different now...

[Ntxw]

Low 90s in August felt great! Low 90s in September feels horrible . Need crisp mornings.

I guess the models will flip flop on the front until 5 days out?

Pattern and Ens supports a front/trough mid month in the central conus. Difference is magnitude how far south it makes and how much which differs

[weatherdude1108]

Just got a HEAVY rain soaker with wind here at work. People were like, "Is it raining??"

I love the rain, but I happened to wash and wax my wife's and my vehicles yesterday and early this morning, based on a 20 percent chance of rain EAST of here. It has been a while since I washed the cars. Last couple times there was a chance of rain, I did not wash, and it did not rain. Figures.

Like clockwork!

Had 3 rounds of quick downpours yesterday, two in the morning and one lasting a good 15 minuets in the afternoon. Also had some rain the day before. All together it added to a bit over a quarter of an inch.

Other than an isolated shower or two somewhere this afternoon, looks like that will be it till Saturday.

I guess everyone is interested in the front next week. Will be nice to have a hint of Autumn especially at night.

Awesome for you on the rain!

Oh yeah, I can't wait for the cooler nights.

I went out for a jog this morning around 5am.
I may as well have been jogging in the swamps of Louisiana! Not one inkling of a breeze. I have been running since February, but I had to stop before I usually do. I was soaked in sweat. In fact, I was sweating so much, I probably could have condensed it into my own cloud, or maybe even raincloud!
But seriously, it was MISERABLE. I carried a bottle of water with me. Made me sweat more as I was drinking it.

[Tireman4]

Just got a HEAVY rain soaker with wind here at work. People were like, "Is it raining??"
:
Oh yeah, I can't wait for the cooler nights.

I went out for a jog this morning around 5am.
I may as well have been jogging in the swamps of Louisiana! Not one inkling of a breeze. I have been running since February, but I had to stop before I usually do. I was soaked in sweat. In fact, I was sweating so much, I probably could have condensed it into my own cloud, or maybe even raincloud!
But seriously, it was MISERABLE. I carried a bottle of water with me. Made me sweat more as I was drinking it.

And NOW you see why I run inside during the Summer. I am not stupid. I will venture outside in October

[weatherdude1108]

And NOW you see why I run inside during the Summer. I am not stupid. I will venture outside in October

Yeah yeah, but the treadmill doesn't quite do as much for the workout as outside in the elements.
I usually go inside in the Winter since I jog early in the morning, which is usually when it is most comfortable, even in Summer, except for today. I should have stayed inside today. Oh well, now I'm acclimated to the swamps.

[weatherdude1108]

Looking good in this morning's EWX discussion in the rain and cooler weather department.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 081144
AFDEWX

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT THU SEP 8 2016/

LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Convection along the aforementioned front should help propagate
it into North or Central Texas by Saturday morning. Although
models differ slightly on the timing, isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected to move into the northern
parts of our CWA as early as late Saturday morning and continue
across the region during the afternoon and evening hours. Although
dynamic support associated with the trough over the Midwest will
decrease on Sunday, outflow boundaries from prior convection along
with a dissipating front and a weak shear axis associated with the
weak disturbance over the Gulf will remain. Thus, isolated to
scattered showers are expected once again on Sunday over the
region as high temperatures run a few degrees above normal in the
upper 80s to around 90 degrees. GFS guidance continues to generate
lower convective coverage than the EURO, so the official forecast
reflecting 20-40 POPs this weekend is a blend of these scenarios.
However, the chance that a specific spot receives measurable
rainfall at some point this weekend is higher and rain chances may
be raised if future model runs show a stronger front and/or more
coherent easterly wave from the Gulf.

The forecast past this weekend is a bit uncertain as a weak shear
axis hangs around the Gulf Coast with the subtropical ridge
building over the Southeast U.S. struggling to build west into
Texas relative to what previous model run cycles had shown.
Monday should have relatively low convective coverage as slightly
drier air filters into the region and the weak shear axis moves
towards the upper Texas Gulf Coast. However, a few models suggest
another moisture surge and weak disturbance from the Gulf will
push into the region for the middle of next week to increase our
rain chances slightly on Tuesday and even more on Wednesday as yet
another front approaches the region from the north. Although there
are significant differences in timing and the southern extent of
this front, next week is looking wetter and slightly cooler than
previous model runs had indicated for the extended period.

[Tireman4]

And NOW you see why I run inside during the Summer. I am not stupid. I will venture outside in October

Yeah yeah, but the treadmill doesn't quite do as much for the workout as outside in the elements.
I usually go inside in the Winter since I jog early in the morning, which is usually when it is most comfortable, even in Summer, except for today. I should have stayed inside today. Oh well, now I'm acclimated to the swamps.

Well I am hurt as of now, so I am on injured reserve (ish). I can slowly jog, but until my knots loosen up, I am toast. Only heavy duty biking for me. I still think I can get back to at least a 7 minute pace for 7 miles by Halloween. I love Winter running. The crispness. The cold. Oh my. I have learned to live with the treadmill. It has been 10 years now..:0

[weatherdude1108]

And NOW you see why I run inside during the Summer. I am not stupid. I will venture outside in October

Yeah yeah, but the treadmill doesn't quite do as much for the workout as outside in the elements.
I usually go inside in the Winter since I jog early in the morning, which is usually when it is most comfortable, even in Summer, except for today. I should have stayed inside today. Oh well, now I'm acclimated to the swamps.

Well I am hurt as of now, so I am on injured reserve (ish). I can slowly jog, but until my knots loosen up, I am toast. Only heavy duty biking for me. I still think I can get back to at least a 7 minute pace for 7 miles by Halloween. I love Winter running. The crispness. The cold. Oh my. I have learned to live with the treadmill. It has been 10 years now..:0

Yeah, I definitely felt it going from treadmill to pavement/asphalt. Harder on the thighs and knees. There are a couple little parks in my neighborhood that have that crushed sandy granite, which softens the blow some, but not as soft as the treadmill.

[Tireman4]

Yeah, at 50, too much concrete just messes me up. Granite (crushed) is good. Dirt is good. Grass is great. LOL