STORM2K

12z HRRR much more concerning for SW Oklahoma and along the Red River. Also, pretty juiced up for N. Texas but storm mode looks very messy.

Due to the lack of hype/discussion, todays atmosphere must not be as volatile as originally thought. I am fine with that.

Eh, DFW will get missed again. Looks to be east and north with just minor severe storms for DFW.

Just want some thunder honestly, but we better start seeing some real severe weather soon or it will be death ridge time.

bubba hotep wrote:12z HRRR much more concerning for SW Oklahoma and along the Red River. Also, pretty juiced up for N. Texas but storm mode looks very messy.

Also do want to mention a possible Bow Echo in Central Oklahoma on the same run . . .

rwfromkansas wrote:Eh, DFW will get missed again. Looks to be east and north with just minor severe storms for DFW.

Just want some thunder honestly, but we better start seeing some real severe weather soon or it will be death ridge time.

Hrrr shows some good parameter space for dfw at 3pm.1800+ Cape, 300 0-3km srh and minimal cap wouldn’t be too hard to get a supercell or two if it can stay on the south side of any junkvection

Yeah, HRRR still looked decent at 3. My initial thoughts are probably wrong hopefully. I shouldn't post thoughts before seeing the models. Lol.

Any chance this cloud deck keep things tame around DFW?

First lightning strikes of the day showing up just south of Abilene.

Mesoscale Discussion #405

Svr T Storm Watch has been issued for DFW

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #98 Along I-35 from Austin, TX to Pauls Valley, OK

Mesoscale Discussion #406, a Tornado Watch AND a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is possible in NW Texas & SW & Central Oklahoma



Mesoscale Discussion #407, Tornado Watch very possible for SE Texas & Western Louisiana

Strong storm heading into the DFW area, could get severe there . . .

Mesoscale Discussion 0407
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

Areas affected...portions of east/southeast Texas into western
Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 231743Z - 231945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes,
damaging gusts and hail are expected this afternoon and evening
across parts of eastern Texas into western Louisiana.

DISCUSSION...A strong low-level warm advection regime continues
across east Texas into western LA early this afternoon. A warm front
is draped northwest-to-southeast from central TX into southwest LA
per 17z surface analysis. This front should continue to gradually
lift northward over the next several hours. Dewpoints will increase
to the mid 60s to low 70s F near and south of the front,
contributing to increasing low-level instability. Forecasts
currently increase 0-3 km CAPE to around 100-150 J/kg after 20z in a
corridor near the warm front, with mixing ratios around 15-16 g/kg.
Additionally, the front will further augment already favorable
low-level wind profiles suitable for tornadoes. As a
south/southwesterly low-level jet increases to 50+ kt toward 00z,
some upscale growth into one or more bowing segments is possible.
This could increase damaging wind potential. Even as storm mode
evolves, low-level hodographs will remain favorable for mesovortex
formation and a continuation of a tornado threat with eastward
extent into western LA.

.70" hail report near New Braunfels.

Cap is busting.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 99
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
155 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Central and Western Louisiana
Southeast Texas
Coastal Waters

* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 155 PM until
900 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity this
afternoon across the region. A few supercell storms are
expected,capable of damaging winds, tornadoes, and large hail.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
north and south of a line from 35 miles south southwest of College
Station TX to 30 miles east of Alexandria LA. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

Lots of messy convection going on. Thick cloud base still lingering, we need the rain. Far NW Texas and SW Oklahoma may be the region of the most action this afternoon where storms initialize for the MCS that crosses Oklahoma. There's also an undercutting front so we'll have to see about the rest of Oklahoma. Far East/Southeast Texas may have the best instability but here too got to see how messy convection plays out.

We just got slammed IMBY with hail and very heavy rain!

Models are trending south with the MCS coming out of Oklahoma bringing more rain to N. Texas later this evening.

bubba hotep wrote:We just got slammed IMBY with hail and very heavy rain!

How big was the hail?