Texas Spring 2021

[rwfromkansas]

Some pretty tornado photos out there. It was a nice one.

[bubba hotep]

Looks like that is about it for DFW as storms are starting to push off to the east. Maybe that line of storms that is coming together up in Oklahoma will dip down to clip us later tonight. Some localized very heavy rain but a lot of areas picked up very little.

I can't remember the last time we had an April that didn't see at least a couple of big MCS pushing across DFW. Maybe in May?

[jasons2k]

That supercell SE of San Antonio is a right-turner and looks very intense. Needs to be closely monitored.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Did the middle part of the dry line just not form storms? I thought something would be hitting Houston around now but there seems to be almost nothing.
EDIT: unless the previous post meant the supercell being a right turner mean it’s heading to Houston? I don’t know much about this stuff.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Never mind I looked at the radar and there definitely is a supercell sneaking up on us. And of course it had to happen when all the stuff from the flooded garage has been sitting under tarps in our yard

[jasons2k]

Looks like a bust for metro Houston.

[bubba hotep]

It would be a great start to May if the 12z GFS were to verify for Texas

[Ntxw]

Flow next week looks like it may be more meridional. This will limit an outbreak but very good at rainmaking.

[bubba hotep]

Flow next week looks like it may be more meridional. This will limit an outbreak but very good at rainmaking.

And return flow has already started, so there should be rich deep moisture in place across most of Texas next week.

[bubba hotep]

[Ntxw]

Flow next week looks like it may be more meridional. This will limit an outbreak but very good at rainmaking.

And return flow has already started, so there should be rich deep moisture in place across most of Texas next week.

https://i.ibb.co/98Lh17z/gfs-mslp-pwata-epac-fh0-168.gif

Great pattern for drought busting.

SOI values for 25 Apr, 2021
Average SOI for last 30 days 0.20
Average SOI for last 90 days 4.43
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -13.27

[Cpv17]

Flow next week looks like it may be more meridional. This will limit an outbreak but very good at rainmaking.

Do you think SE Texas will see anything? I’m located about one hour southwest of Houston.

[Iceresistance]

Video from Live Storms Media from the first Tornado near Vernon, TX



Link: https://youtu.be/OWN2JrpYxsw

[Iceresistance]

Double Trouble Slight risks Today & Tomorrow!

[Iceresistance]

A very wet end for April if the 12z HRRR verifies . . .

[rwfromkansas]

HRRR cuts off the rainfall rather quickly, with eastern DFW getting much less. Doesn't seem to match other expectations.

[Iceresistance]

Observation at Tecumseh, OK

Time: 10:35 AM CDT or 1525z

Current Conditions: Cloudy
Temperature: 70°F
Dew Point: 64°F
Relative Humidity: 81%
Wind: S at 15 mph, gusting to 25 mph
Pressure: 29.70 InHg or 1007 MB

Watches & Warnings: None

[bubba hotep]

HRRR cuts off the rainfall rather quickly, with eastern DFW getting much less. Doesn't seem to match other expectations.

Don't put much stock in the HRRR beyond 6 - 12 hrs. The NAMs & other hi-res are better for the 1st 36 - 48hrs.

Also, models are coming very close to breaking the cap across DFW this afternoon. Any storm that can break through would have the potential to quickly go svr. FWD thinks the cap will hold, by the way.

[Iceresistance]

Observation in Tecumseh, OK

Time: 11 AM CDT or 1600z

Current Conditions: Cloudy
Temperature: 70°F
Dew Point: 64°F
Relative Humidity: 82%
Wind: S at 15 mph, gusting to 25 mph
Pressure: 29.75 InHg or 1007.5 MB

Watches & Warnings:
Flood Watch until Thursday Morning

[Iceresistance]

Noon Observation in Tecumseh, OK

Time: 12 PM CDT or 1700z

Current Conditions: Cloudy
Temperature: 71°F
Dew Point: 65°F
Relative Humidity: 80%
Wind: S at 15 mph, gusting to 25 mph
Pressure: 29.76 InHg or 1008 MB

Watches & Warnings:
Flood Watch until Thursday Morning