Texas Spring 2019

[bubba hotep]

Models, teleconnections, low freq background state all point to the pattern turning wetter for Texas but it seems like it is somehow always 7+ days away. SPC is currently highlighting eastern OK for D4 but maybe we can get some of those storms to dip down into N. Texas...

[Cpv17]

Models, teleconnections, low freq background state all point to the pattern turning wetter for Texas but it seems like it is somehow always 7+ days away. SPC is currently highlighting eastern OK for D4 but maybe we can get some of those storms to dip down into N. Texas...

And the CPC keeps on placing Texas in the above average precipitation, but it hasn’t really happened.

[Brent]

Models, teleconnections, low freq background state all point to the pattern turning wetter for Texas but it seems like it is somehow always 7+ days away. SPC is currently highlighting eastern OK for D4 but maybe we can get some of those storms to dip down into N. Texas...

And the CPC keeps on placing Texas in the above average precipitation, but it hasn’t really happened.

winter flashbacks

[bubba hotep]

[Brent]

so where is all this rain?

The GFS and Euro both have less than a half inch for the next 10 days

[Cpv17]

so where is all this rain?

The GFS and Euro both have less than a half inch for the next 10 days

Yeah I don’t understand.

[lukem]

so where is all this rain?

The GFS and Euro both have less than a half inch for the next 10 days

Yeah I don’t understand.

Last couple GFS runs have it starting to show up in the April 4th to 5th range. Obviously that timeframe hasn’t been working out lately but I will be watching closely the next few days to see if the models lose it like they have been recently.

[Cerlin]

Just a general question here, but why does it seem that the models have been so much more inaccurate the last 6 months or so than the year before? I get that models aren’t gonna be anywhere near perfect and should just be used as a guidance tool to help develop a forecast, but most models have been so inconsistent and I’m just curious if there’s a good reason for that.

[Cpv17]

Just a general question here, but why does it seem that the models have been so much more inaccurate the last 6 months or so than the year before? I get that models aren’t gonna be anywhere near perfect and should just be used as a guidance tool to help develop a forecast, but most models have been so inconsistent and I’m just curious if there’s a good reason for that.

Ditto!!

[weatherdude1108]

Just a general question here, but why does it seem that the models have been so much more inaccurate the last 6 months or so than the year before? I get that models aren’t gonna be anywhere near perfect and should just be used as a guidance tool to help develop a forecast, but most models have been so inconsistent and I’m just curious if there’s a good reason for that.

Ditto!!

Maybe when the government shutdown happened, it threw everything, including the models, off(?). No funding to staff meteorologists analyzing the models(?), now they're trying to play "catch up"(??).

Maybe the background state and the warm Gulf waters (alluded to before) messing with the weather systems, thus model output vs. actual weather happening(?).

Hmmm. Does seem off kilter. Maybe a pro met can chime in?

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro EPS has 0.10" of snow at DFW, would be the biggest event of the winter! lol

[Brent]

12z Euro EPS has 0.10" of snow at DFW, would be the biggest event of the winter! lol

seriously, we couldn't get snow in the actual winter...

[TheProfessor]

Today is the 19th anniversary of the March 28, 2000 tornadoes that hit Fort Worth and Arlington Texas. Usually I'd do a bit of a write up for it, but I'm dealing with some kind of virus right now.

[bubba hotep]

So is anyone going to comment on the Euro & EPS showing snow across a large portion of Texas?

[Brent]

So is anyone going to comment on the Euro & EPS showing snow across a large portion of Texas?

There's my comment

Meanwhile the gfs has a 90 degree day for Dallas next Friday

[weatherdude1108]

So is anyone going to comment on the Euro & EPS showing snow across a large portion of Texas?

There's my comment

Meanwhile the gfs has a 90 degree day for Dallas next Friday

I'm looking forward to that inclement snow day here at work! Gunna happen, oh yeah, I can feel it!

[weatherdude1108]

Bob Rose mentioned that despite our abnormal dryness, he thinks the rest of Spring should be wet. I hope so.

Central Texas Weather has Trended Abnormally Dry but Wetter Conditions Should Develop this Spring.
Thursday, March 28, 2019 4:01 PM

Do note that long-range weather forecasts point toward a change in the weather pattern beginning in April, with more frequent periods of rain and storms expected across Texas. In fact, the outlooks call for above normal rainfall not only in April, but also from May through August. And keep in mind, May and June are typically the two wettest months of the entire year. April showers this year may very well lead to May flowers and even more rain showers in May and June.

https://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-we ... ather.aspx

[South Texas Storms]

Bob Rose mentioned that despite our abnormal dryness, he thinks the rest of Spring should be wet. I hope so.

Central Texas Weather has Trended Abnormally Dry but Wetter Conditions Should Develop this Spring.
Thursday, March 28, 2019 4:01 PM

Do note that long-range weather forecasts point toward a change in the weather pattern beginning in April, with more frequent periods of rain and storms expected across Texas. In fact, the outlooks call for above normal rainfall not only in April, but also from May through August. And keep in mind, May and June are typically the two wettest months of the entire year. April showers this year may very well lead to May flowers and even more rain showers in May and June.

https://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-we ... ather.aspx

I agree with Bob...an active weather pattern should bring above normal rainfall to much of Texas April through June. Let's hope so because we really need it, especially across south Texas!

[Haris]

The euro took away that generous 1" of rain for Sunday. (yay)

[South Texas Storms]

The latest Euro Weeklies run is one of the wettest I've seen for TX. I'm so ready to track storms again!