STORM2K

Ralph's Weather wrote:Just had to cancel Thanksgiving week in NM. I sure hope I get up there sometime this winter.

yeah that sucks

My winter trips are in danger too I was gonna go to Lake Tahoe but I don't think that's a good idea anymore which is why I'm likely just gonna take my chances on Colorado

Looks like E TX temps range from 27 to 40 this morning, much colder than the forecasted 39.

Not much as far as cold weather goes but Sunday is looking promising for some rain as of today. Fingers crossed.

Maybe some liquid light at the end of the tunnel? Bone dry here now! La Nina sucks, imo!

000
FXUS64 KEWX 162051
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
251 PM CST Mon Nov 16 2020

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
High pressure is still the main influence this pleasant afternoon.
Winds, although light, are generally out of the east through
Tuesday. Overnight lows tonight will get down into the 30s as there
is very dry air in place and light wind, decent radiational cooling
will take place. Some areas in the Hill Country may reach freezing,
though not widespread enough to justify a freeze warning just yet.
Most other areas to reach upper 30s and low 40s. Tuesday will be
very similar to today with a just a few high clouds and a couple of
degrees warmer. A very gradual increase in moisture will mean
Tuesday lows will be slightly warmer than tonight, though still
chilly, in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
After a cool start to Wednesday, southerly winds should begin to
increase moisture with surface dewpoints returning to the 50s by
Wednesday evening. This should allow for low temperatures Wednesday
night to be about 7-10 degrees warmer than the previous couple of
nights. Dry weather is expected to continue for the first part of the
long-term forecast as the atmosphere remains dry and no appreciable
lifting mechanisms impact the region. Highs for the extended will
mostly be in the 70s and 80s through Saturday.

Medium range guidance is in decent agreement that the next cold
front will impact the area sometime Sunday or Sunday evening. The
better news is that models are also in decent agreement that some
large scale lift will accompany this front on the tail end of a
trough axis moving through the plains. This should allow for some
rain to accompany the frontal passage with some possible post-frontal
rainfall as well. We shall see how this forecast will evolve over
the next 5-7 days as we surely need the rain.

Half way through November 2020 and this is what we have at present

AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMP: 63.3 ___ TOTAL PRECIP FOR MONTH: Trace
DPTR FM NORMAL: 3.9 ____ DPTR FM NORMAL: -1.64


Hopefully the precip chances increase and we can manage a decent rain event out of this. Temps also look to drop next week with perhaps some 50's for highs just before the Thanksgiving Holiday!!

Not really seeing any signs of cold air and when we do get a brief favorable window, there is no cold air in our source region. Blah.

bubba hotep wrote:Not really seeing any signs of cold air and when we do get a brief favorable window, there is no cold air in our source region. Blah.

No signs?

starsfan65 wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:Not really seeing any signs of cold air and when we do get a brief favorable window, there is no cold air in our source region. Blah.

No signs?

We are talking out towards mid-December and that is if you squint your eyes and tilt your head to the side

It's not a straight blowtorch and we will see some "seasonal" cool here and there.

Maybe someone can do a counterpoint? Cold air anyone?

bubba hotep wrote:

starsfan65 wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:Not really seeing any signs of cold air and when we do get a brief favorable window, there is no cold air in our source region. Blah.

No signs?

We are talking out towards mid-December and that is if you squint your eyes and tilt your head to the side

It's not a straight blowtorch and we will see some "seasonal" cool here and there.

Maybe someone can do a counterpoint? Cold air anyone?

I really hope that late October thing was not it but it's making me wonder

It will get cold again, and anyone who thinks otherwise is being emotional.

As for the mid to long range, there seems to be a slight stepping down from days 7-15. Lower lows, lower highs. It’s not brutally cold, but it is chilly.

La Nina is expected to hold tight through at least April 2021, not expecting any real seasonal weather for much of the southern U.S till late December at best. As for our region here in NTX mid January thru February will be our window.

This Winter is looking very similar to 2016-2017, 2017-2018 with lot's of zonal flow and much of the cold air being pushed east across the northern part of the country. When cold fronts do make it this far south it will be short lived 2-3 days at best.

Not since 1930-1935 has NTX seen 5 consecutive winters this bad. (Warmer than average)

12z Euro looks quite stormy at the end of the run for much of TX. GFS and Canadian are showing signs of a wetter pattern returning as well by the end of November. Bring it on please!

South Texas Storms wrote:12z Euro looks quite stormy at the end of the run for much of TX. GFS and Canadian are showing signs of a wetter pattern returning as well by the end of November. Bring it on please!

The trends in the ensembles and teleconnections have been encouraging for a wetter pattern returning to Texas. It looks like the blowtorch (anomaly speaking) will setup across the Northern Plains up into Canada with systems undercutting this and bringing rain across Texas.

So...here it comes.....WINTER CANCEL.

bubba hotep wrote:

South Texas Storms wrote:12z Euro looks quite stormy at the end of the run for much of TX. GFS and Canadian are showing signs of a wetter pattern returning as well by the end of November. Bring it on please!

The trends in the ensembles and teleconnections have been encouraging for a wetter pattern returning to Texas. It looks like the blowtorch (anomaly speaking) will setup across the Northern Plains up into Canada with systems undercutting this and bringing rain across Texas.

That's a positive at least because this pattern has been beyond boring

I'm sure we'll have cold snaps but with the La Nina and the recent horrible years my expectations are pretty much non existent on snow this year around here but honestly but maybe(probably not...) I'll be surprised

Yukon Cornelius wrote:So...here it comes.....WINTER CANCEL.

Don't say it!!

starsfan65 wrote:

Yukon Cornelius wrote:So...here it comes.....WINTER CANCEL.

Don't say it!!

Yeah...let's have at least a month of winter...but not too cold...shout-out to a good friend of mine in Oklahoma...stay warm!

Yukon Cornelius wrote:So...here it comes.....WINTER CANCEL.

Never fails when someone posts this and somewhere south of I20 gets rocked with a Winter Storm.

Thank you sir!

I choose to believe the gfs is correct at 324hr with a statewide mcs on a cold front. Can’t convince me otherwise. Nope.

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:

Yukon Cornelius wrote:So...here it comes.....WINTER CANCEL.

Never fails when someone posts this and somewhere south of I20 gets rocked with a Winter Storm.

Thank you sir!

You already know!