Texas Fall-2016

[Ntxw]

To note the CPC has dropped the La Nina watch favoring neutral to continue. Also of curiosity is the possible emerging of El Nino again in 2017. Have we changed the Pacific state enough to now be in a longer period of warm ENSO? For sure this means no creation of long term drought for at least thru 2017. Very different regime than 2007-2014

[South Texas Storms]

To note the CPC has dropped the La Nina watch favoring neutral to continue. Also of curiosity is the possible emerging of El Nino again in 2017. Have we changed the Pacific state enough to now be in a longer period of warm ENSO? For sure this means no creation of long term drought for at least thru 2017. Very different regime than 2007-2014

It's looking more promising for us based on the latest trends! I certainly hope we are in for an extended wet period across the state. These past few years of above normal rainfall sure have been nice and I'm very thankful!

[Tireman4]

Must. Have. Front. Come. Now. LOL...I am still thinking September 25th for the drying front....Second week of October for the real "cold" front..

000
FXUS64 KHGX 081125
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
625 AM CDT Thu Sep 8 2016

.AVIATION...
Low clouds and fog (some IFR levels) have formed across our north and
northwest areas. Expect conditions to improve to VFR levels generally
between 13Z and 15Z. A majority of the rest of the area should stay
VFR with scattered SHRA/TSRA possibly developing during the day. Any
storms that develop will dissipate by the early to mid evening hours.
Best chance for low cloud and fog formation tonight through Friday
morning will again be across out north and northwest areas. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
Scattered convection and near to just slightly above normal
temperatures continue again today. Upper disturbances will provide
potential for greater than normal coverage of showers and storms both
this weekend and again next week, with temperatures a few degrees
cooler.

Today...
A few showers are present across the marine zones and the
immediate coast, mostly around Matagorda Bay. Elsewhere, skies are
clear with localized spots of fog emerging. One more day like the
bulk of the week so far. Temperatures should be at or just above
normal again, along with heat indices in the 100-105 degree range.

Convection will be isolated to scattered in nature again, and most
probable nearest the seabreeze boundary. After getting cute with
the short term PoPs and winning a couple days ago, repeating
yesterday brought nothing but ruin as a flood advisory was issued
in a spot where slight chance PoPs were placed. Without any real
significant differences present in the environment in
mesoanalysis, there`s not much more confidence in trying to
specify higher potential locations beyond near the seabreeze. The
GFS, NAM, RAP and SREF suggest better column moisture from about
Harris County and eastward, but CAM guidance says the exact
opposite. It seems the safest course of action will be to be
fairly broadbrushed.

This weekend...
An upper trough working through the Great Lakes will also draw in
the remnants of Newton from the Desert Southwest, allowing for
rain along the cold front to our northwest. In the meantime, an
inverted trough aloft will make its way from the eastern Gulf to
the Texas coast before stalling out more or less on top of us.
The front still looks to wash out before reaching our area, but
the cooling aloft from the upper disturbances should allow for
more instability, and despite temperatures cooling slightly, would
expect more numerous shower and storm development this weekend,
albeit still scattered and showery in nature.

Next week...
The vorticity from the aforementioned trough will still be present
over our area as the work week begins, before slowly drifting down
the coast early next week. As this occurs, a `perky` trough -
energetic and very positive (tilted) - will push on the western
coast, leaving behind a cutoff low over the Sierra/western Great
Basin. As what`s left of the northern stream trough carries on
along the Canadian border, a weak subtropical ridge builds over
the southern US. The major implication for the surface is that the
front, removed from its upper support, grinds to a halt short of
our area, though it appears to come closer than the front this
weekend. Again, we should see scattered showers and storms,
greater in coverage than average, emerge from this. However,
models are notorious for handling these kind of evolutions poorly,
so decided to mostly splatter chance PoPs and near or slightly
below average temperatures across the week. There`s a fair chance
this may verify on its own - but if not, there has been narrowing
spread between the GFS and Euro that at least leaves hope that
more detail may be added to the forecast in the coming days.

Luchs

MARINE...
A continuation of light to occasionally moderate onshore winds
and low seas can be expected through the end of the week and over
the weekend. A disturbance moving into the region from the east at
the end of the week and lingering near the area over the weekend
and into the start of next week will bring an increase in shower
and thunderstorm chances. Winds and seas could be higher in and
near these storms. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 94 75 92 74 90 / 10 10 20 10 40
Houston (IAH) 93 75 90 75 91 / 30 10 40 10 40
Galveston (GLS) 90 81 89 80 88 / 20 20 40 20 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...25
Aviation/Marine...42

[JDawg512]

To note the CPC has dropped the La Nina watch favoring neutral to continue. Also of curiosity is the possible emerging of El Nino again in 2017. Have we changed the Pacific state enough to now be in a longer period of warm ENSO? For sure this means no creation of long term drought for at least thru 2017. Very different regime than 2007-2014

It does appear that we are in a +PDO although I'm going to wait a few more months before I get too excited.

I'm not yet on the bandwagon that another El Niño will form in 2017 as there just isn't enough warm water in the west Pacific for the creation of a significant kelvin wave for at least 6 months if not longer. Having said that, if we are in a +PDO, then I can see ENSO neutral conditions continuing into 2017 favoring the warm side. I'm staying cautious but going by current indications, the rest of this decade is looking wetter.

[dhweather]

To note the CPC has dropped the La Nina watch favoring neutral to continue. Also of curiosity is the possible emerging of El Nino again in 2017. Have we changed the Pacific state enough to now be in a longer period of warm ENSO? For sure this means no creation of long term drought for at least thru 2017. Very different regime than 2007-2014

Bite your tongue!

Hopefully there is a long term regime change. Generally, 2000-2014 was dominated by drought, severe to catastrophic at times. That period featured the ever so fun summer of 2011.

I really don't mind the heat, that I can live with. It's extended drought that drives me crazy. Of course, you already know that.

[Ntxw]

To note the CPC has dropped the La Nina watch favoring neutral to continue. Also of curiosity is the possible emerging of El Nino again in 2017. Have we changed the Pacific state enough to now be in a longer period of warm ENSO? For sure this means no creation of long term drought for at least thru 2017. Very different regime than 2007-2014

It does appear that we are in a +PDO although I'm going to wait a few more months before I get too excited.

I'm not yet on the bandwagon that another El Niño will form in 2017 as there just isn't enough warm water in the west Pacific for the creation of a significant kelvin wave for at least 6 months if not longer. Having said that, if we are in a +PDO, then I can see ENSO neutral conditions continuing into 2017 favoring the warm side. I'm staying cautious but going by current indications, the rest of this decade is looking wetter.

2017 is an educated guess and the CPC is going by what the guidance odds are which is not the most reliable this time of year for the next. The good news out of it is that no moderate or strong La Nina. Had that occurred we would be amidst the peak of it right now and 2017 would've gone down the starting year for another drought. The longer we can push it back the better! Extrapolating from now until next spring our lakes at least, will remain at good levels.

As for winter I'll be honest, I was kind of hoping for a solid weak Nina. Makes the odds for a colder winter a little better for cold mongers. Neutral is more iffy and tougher to predict. The next 4-6 months will be a tough forecast as the weather will be driven by different oscillations whichever takes hold and it may be interchangeable. Unlike when a strong ENSO event is occurring and the overall long term smoothing is easier to predict.

[Ntxw]

And to more short term weather, there is a front this weekend. Associated with it will be a slow moving area of low pressure near the Texas coast. The two will likely provide opportunities for rain. There is still signal of a cooler air mass the following end of the week. For the northern half of the state low to mid 60 and upper 50s for lows will feel great by Sunday! Whether or not the late week front blasts cooler air, it will at the least be a shift of continental air mass. LIkely the seasonal changes and lowering of averages and we'll see 60s more consistently for lows thereafter.

[Brent]

It looks like at worst, the end of next week will be rainy as the front stalls around the area, so at least it won't be 95 and sunny... The Euro has been consistently cooler than the GFS since the GFS lost the fall air... still has highs around 80 at DFW next Wed-Fri due to the clouds/rain, of course overnight lows will probably be humid, but still...

[Ptarmigan]

The catalyst for the mid month front will be coming from the NE PAC high poking itself into NW NA. -EPO

Some of the biggest freezes had negative EPO and positive NAO, like December 1983 and February 1989.

[Ntxw]

Noaa has reported that the lower 48 experienced its 5th hottest summer on record. So much like in 2007, our blase summer was actually near record warmth everywhere else. Don't you feel blessed?

[texas1836]

How many days at 100 or over has Dallas had this Summer? It didn't seem crazy hot, except for the pesky humidity.

[Tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 091548
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1048 AM CDT Fri Sep 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The KHGX radar is down for maintenance. Parts are on order and
should arrive later this morning. However, there is a possibility
that other parts may be needed. In the meantime, the Terminal
Doppler at Hobby Airport is available.

An upper low was evident at mid morning over the western Gulf
offshore of the central Texas coast. An upper air analysis and the
RAP analysis of the 700-300 mb mean height showed an Easterly Wave
from about the Sabine south to the Mexican coast. Isolated showers
were already developing this morning and expect more widespread
action once the convective temperature is reached -- which should
occur before noon. Once again isolated localized heavy rainfall
will be possible, especially in locations where colliding
boundaries occur. Made some tweaks to the wind forecast.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 AM CDT Fri Sep 9 2016/

AVIATION...
Satellite showing developing (L)IFR stratus/lowering visibilities
forming along the I-35 corridor. This deck may develop further
eastward through 14Z, affecting CLL and UTS past sunrise. Scattering
out by 15Z with a weak upper low moving in from the Gulf creating
enough instability, with late morning temperatures warming into
the middle to upper 80s, to kick off widely scattered showers over
more southern counties. Depending on how much sun inland counties
receive this morning, thunderstorms may begin to cluster up during
the 19-22Z time frame, most likely impacting the greater Houston
area air fields into early evening. Scattering out through the
evening with returning showers, likely focused offshore and moving
inland during early Saturday morning. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT Fri Sep 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The western Gulf of Mexico mid/upper level low will make its way
to the Texas coast today and meander across the area over the weekend
and into the start of next week. Deepening tropical moisture levels
will spread across Southeast Texas as this system lingers near the
coast and will bring periods of showers and thunderstorms to the area.
A southward sagging cold front will become a focus for additional
storm development over the weekend. Locally heavy rainfall could
develop as boundaries interact with each other with location and
amounts partly dependent on how far the front makes it through the
area. For now, will continue to call for rainfall amounts through
the weekend averaging 1/2 to 1 inch with isolated amounts possibly
reaching 3 to 5 inches which could lead to some localized flooding.
Daily rain chances will remain in the forecast for much of next week.
42

MARINE...
The recently persistent onshore wind will continue through the day
before a weak inland front backs weakened winds to the east tomorrow.
Over the next several days, lower maritime pressures with weak
disturbances moving in from the east, will increase early week
shower and storm probabilities. This unsettled weather pattern
will keep higher rain/thunder chances around through the remainder
of the work week. Seas will generally range between 1 to 2 feet,
with a slightly higher swell of another foot arriving at mid-week.
31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 92 74 90 73 89 / 20 10 40 30 40
Houston (IAH) 90 74 91 74 90 / 40 10 40 30 50
Galveston (GLS) 89 81 89 79 87 / 40 20 40 30 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...40
Aviation/Marine...47

[gboudx]

How many days at 100 or over has Dallas had this Summer? It didn't seem crazy hot, except for the pesky humidity.

According to the NWS, July had 4 and August had 12. So, 16 at the official recording site. 112 was the highest temp, which I believe was also the last day of 100 or over.

[JDawg512]

How many days at 100 or over has Dallas had this Summer? It didn't seem crazy hot, except for the pesky humidity.

According to the NWS, July had 4 and August had 12. So, 16 at the official recording site. 112 was the highest temp, which I believe was also the last day of 100 or over.

It got up to 112 up there this year??? I didn't know it had got that hot.

[Ntxw]

How many days at 100 or over has Dallas had this Summer? It didn't seem crazy hot, except for the pesky humidity.

According to the NWS, July had 4 and August had 12. So, 16 at the official recording site. 112 was the highest temp, which I believe was also the last day of 100 or over.

It got up to 112 up there this year??? I didn't know it had got that hot.

Maybe a typo? 107, it was the heatflux compression from an incoming front on the last day. It was 107 then dropped to about 90 with clouds and showers.

BTW we are about 2 weeks away from nights being longer than days

[gpsnowman]

The storms are making an earlier appearance than predicted. The wind just woke me up so I looked at radar and here it comes!!!! The wind is srong.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

The storms are making an earlier appearance than predicted. The wind just woke me up so I looked at radar and here it comes!!!! The wind is srong.

I'm already at .93 in the rain gauge.

[gboudx]

According to the NWS, July had 4 and August had 12. So, 16 at the official recording site. 112 was the highest temp, which I believe was also the last day of 100 or over.

It got up to 112 up there this year??? I didn't know it had got that hot.

Maybe a typo? 107, it was the heatflux compression from an incoming front on the last day. It was 107 then dropped to about 90 with clouds and showers.

BTW we are about 2 weeks away from nights being longer than days

Eh, my bad. 112 was the record high all-time for August. This year was a much cooler 107.

[Brent]

Oh it feels lovely out... fall preview even if it's short-lived...

but it won't be long now... climo says there's light at the end of the tunnel.

The GFS has come around to the Euro btw on a wet pattern at the end of next week.

[weatherdude1108]

We got a nice rain this morning. Heavy with some wind for a little bit. 0.23 in the gauge from it. Now it is sunny and breezy in the 80s with humidity in the 40 percent range.