STORM2K

Tutt low with a Pacific tropical system about two weeks out? Fantasy land, but interesting run.

We had a tree victim here at work from the storms last night in north Austin. Worse here than where I live. Looks like they were already sawing at it to get it cleaned up.

Only 80 at DFW so far

More please

FWD is going pretty aggressive with forecast for another round of storms late tonight and into tomorrow morning. The CAMs have not really shown much but they seemed to continually insist on redeveloping storms with the slow moving MCV. It appears now that we are not going to see much in the way of new storms with the departing MCV. That would seem to favor the FWD forecast. It will be interesting to see how the 00z models react. The atmosphere appears to be recovering from the morning storms and the low level jet will be kicking tonight.

bubba hotep wrote:FWD is going pretty aggressive with forecast for another round of storms late tonight and into tomorrow morning. The CAMs have not really shown much but they seemed to continually insist on redeveloping storms with the slow moving MCV. It appears now that we are not going to see much in the way of new storms with the departing MCV. That would seem to favor the FWD forecast. It will be interesting to see how the 00z models react. The atmosphere appears to be recovering from the morning storms and the low level jet will be kicking tonight.

Whatever the news uses keeps showing a training setup in the morning mostly in the eastern metro

bubba hotep wrote:FWD is going pretty aggressive with forecast for another round of storms late tonight and into tomorrow morning. The CAMs have not really shown much but they seemed to continually insist on redeveloping storms with the slow moving MCV. It appears now that we are not going to see much in the way of new storms with the departing MCV. That would seem to favor the FWD forecast. It will be interesting to see how the 00z models react. The atmosphere appears to be recovering from the morning storms and the low level jet will be kicking tonight.

All I will say is that some of the models earlier today have shown a tongue of WAA setting up somewhere in the Metrpplex that would support elevated convection in the early morning.

weatherdude1108 wrote:We had a tree victim here at work from the storms last night in north Austin. Worse here than where I live. Looks like they were already sawing at it to get it cleaned up.

I know y’all are Central Texas, and post oak is the wood of choice, but I would put that fell pecan wood to good use on my Big Green Egg. Pecan is my primary smoking wood.

gboudx wrote:

weatherdude1108 wrote:We had a tree victim here at work from the storms last night in north Austin. Worse here than where I live. Looks like they were already sawing at it to get it cleaned up.

I know y’all are Central Texas, and post oak is the wood of choice, but I would put that fell pecan wood to good use on my Big Green Egg. Pecan is my primary smoking wood.

Yeah. More post oak and blackjack oak around here than Live oak.
I'm honestly not certain it was a Pecan(?). I looked at the leaves close up, along with the trunk, and it looked similar to a Chinese Pistache. Only reason is because my dad and I planted a Chinese Pistache in the 80s in his backyard in San Antonio, and it looks just like it. Leaves seemed too small for a Pecan, but maybe it was(?).lol. Not sure. Pecan is good smoking wood.

6z HRRR would be a very close call for me. It develops some storms behind the one currently in Oklahoma, I'm crossing my fingers it ends up just enough west to give me at least a solid half inch of rain.

Tiny storm just developed near Grapevine with some T&L heading towards DFW near where I am at. Nice to hear.

Nasty looking cell dropping south through Collin County. Possibly riding a boundary laid down by an earlier cell.

Those are training, severe warned for northeastplexers

Couple of thoughts this morning. 500mb has shown some weakness. The weakness and NW flow has allowed for rain opportunities the past several days. The ridge will attempt to reassert itself but I do think it will be fought off some due to green vegetation and not as dry soils as years like 2011 or 2012.

The El Nino is trying to come in the Pacific, this will probably be a late bloomer like 2009. EPAC is waking up so the ridge may be knocked around some by the shifting 500mb pattern as the hadley cell off North America's southwest coast weakens. In large part with these late bloomers July might be relatively cooler and wet. Also September to October tends to yield lots of rain in such weak-mod type Nino events

2nd stormy morning in a row here

bubba hotep wrote:Nasty looking cell dropping south through Collin County. Possibly riding a boundary laid down by an earlier cell.

I'm starting to think I might need to move to Collin County to see any interesting weather here in the Metroplex.

Solid 4 inches to the north and just to the east of me. I’m talking within 4-8 miles. Not even a measurement here but sprinkles.

Woke to some thunder this morning and a good shower, though I'm not sure how long it rained but I do know it was heavy. YEA RAIN!!!

TarrantWx wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:Nasty looking cell dropping south through Collin County. Possibly riding a boundary laid down by an earlier cell.

I'm starting to think I might need to move to Collin County to see any interesting weather here in the Metroplex.

first year in Collin County had the closest call to a killer tornado ever(after 25 years in Alabama!) and the biggest hail I've ever seen and one of the biggest snowstorms I've ever seen(of course it's barely snowed since...

Also can't forget the flash flood emergency in 2015

Back to that tree (either Pecan or Pistache) I posted yesterday, I think lightning may have hit that tree, based on the dark, charred-looking mark I noticed. Don’t think it’s tree paint.
Lightning seems more consistent with the side-split, right below the dark marking.

Like we learned in elementary school, trees one of the worst places to take cover in during a storm. Would not have wanted to be there when it struck, if it did get struck.

Brent wrote:

TarrantWx wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:Nasty looking cell dropping south through Collin County. Possibly riding a boundary laid down by an earlier cell.

I'm starting to think I might need to move to Collin County to see any interesting weather here in the Metroplex.

first year in Collin County had the closest call to a killer tornado ever(after 25 years in Alabama!) and the biggest hail I've ever seen and one of the biggest snowstorms I've ever seen(of course it's barely snowed since...

Also can't forget the flash flood emergency in 2015

Yeah yeah bragging rights! But also a whole lot of nothing in between but hot days...sounds like North Texas weather...