Texas Fall 2018

[weatherdude1108]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
630 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018/

SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
Increasing moisture and isentropic lift along the Rio Grande has
resulted in the development of showers and thunderstorms there into
Mexico. This trend continues today into tonight as a weak mid level
impulse and some moisture from eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Sergio
move into our area. Showers and thunderstorms spread further to the
east across the Hill Country and Rio Grande Plains on Friday as
moisture continues to deepen with another mid level impulse passing
through while Sergio makes landfalls across Baja California and
Sonora state of Mexico.

LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
The remnants of Sergio move across Texas on Saturday. While the
remnants are expected to pass north of our area, moisture deepens
further and the right entrance region of the upper level jet sets up
over our area on Saturday with a strong cold front moving through on
Sunday while an 850 MB boundary lingers out west into early next
week. Showers and thunderstorms become more numerous this weekend
into early next week. There is a potential for locally heavy rains
due to PWs up to 2 inches and isolated strong storms due to adequate
deep layer shear. The best chances will be mainly across the Edwards
Plateau and Hill Country to the Escarpment areas where the best
dynamics will be. Models continue to trend colder with the airmass
behind the front along with the clouds and rain inhibiting
insolation. Temperatures may not make it out of the 50s by middle of
next week.

[weatherdude1108]

Lake Travis has risen 7 feet in the last 3 days!

https://hydromet.lcra.org/Charts/?siteN ... gency=LCRA


Lake Buchanan not quite a foot in the last three days, so not nearly as fortunate.

https://hydromet.lcra.org/Charts/?siteN ... gency=LCRA

[Haris]

Euro has 6-8” just NW of Austin over 7-10 days...

Most coming Sunday and Monday!

[starsfan65]

It is very quiet on this Fall Thread right now.

[Ralph's Weather]

It'll start picking up tomorrow I bet as the cold air and rainfall amounts get more attention, also most are weary of weather after a big event like Michael and need a couple day break.

[starsfan65]

It'll start picking up tomorrow I bet as the cold air and rainfall amounts bet more attention, also most are weary of weather after a big event like Michael and need a couple day break.

ok thanks

[Brent]

Yeah i was giving a lot on time on Michael crazy storm 3rd strongest US landfall in history

Back to locally though the gfs has 4 days next week Dallas is in the 50s for highs and the rain never completely ends. Seems were going quickly to winter

[mcheer23]

Yeah i was giving a lot on time on Michael crazy storm 3rd strongest US landfall in history

Back to locally though the gfs has 4 days next week Dallas is in the 50s for highs and the rain never completely ends. Seems were going quickly to winter

Dallas may struggle to make it out of the 40's...

[Ntxw]

Nothing new to add. DFW is looking like struggle to get to 50 Mon-Tues with heavy rain 3-6". Chilly week coming. First snows in the State of Texas (panhandle)

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1050398032901169152

[mcheer23]

And...Houston may struggle to hit 60 ....

[Jarodm12]

I live in Durant Oklahoma and the Fv3 GFS model has snow in my area next week . Is this possible?

[Brent]

5 more inches of rain at DFW on the Euro

I live in Durant Oklahoma and the Fv3 GFS model has snow in my area next week . Is this possible?

I could see some sleet mixed with rain... I highly doubt its snow though, its just rain on the precip maps if you run the frames

[Ralph's Weather]

I live in Durant Oklahoma and the Fv3 GFS model has snow in my area next week . Is this possible?

I assume you are referring to the maps on Tropical Tidbits. On there sometimes the rain snow algorithms are off. I know last year it kept showing big snow on the NAM with above freezing temps at the surface and up high.

[weatherdude1108]

Improvements in the drought categories across the state, and cooler/wetter times per the SPC.


Farther west, a strong upper-level trough and frontal system brought heavy rain to western Texas and much of Oklahoma. Areas just east of the Texas Panhandle recorded the most rainfall (5 to 10 inches prevailed), but most locations saw recorded over two inches. This substantially alleviated dryness and drought across the region, and most areas of dryness and drought improved from last week by one category. D0-D1 conditions now prevail, with a few areas of D2-D3 remaining in the central Texas Panhandle and west-central Texas.

[dhweather]

Just finished going through the models, it's going to remain an active pattern for the next 4-5 days. Depending on the exact path the remnants of Sergio take, someone will see a lot of rain. The GFS paints 6-7" just west of the metroplex, the Euro has it on the Eastern fringes of the metroplex. Cold front plows through Sunday, then overrunning on top of that. Dreary is the word that comes to mind.

[bubba hotep]

It sure did feel great this morning!

Blend of the 12z GFS/Euro is a another big rain event for DFW.

[Ntxw]

5 more inches of rain at DFW on the Euro

I live in Durant Oklahoma and the Fv3 GFS model has snow in my area next week . Is this possible?

I could see some sleet mixed with rain... I highly doubt its snow though, its just rain on the precip maps if you run the frames

Something like this happened last October. A chilly raw day in the 40s with not cold enough aloft, with sleet or hail fell with the rain.

[Jarodm12]

I'm waiting with excitement for the nam as it's temps are as cold or alittle colder than the Canadian with the front at 84 hours. So you guys think Durant Oklahoma could receive some sleet ? This is awesome I'm so excited for this winter

[TheProfessor]

Thought I might have an outside shot of seeing my first flakes Saturday morning but the 3K Nam has the precip moving through Friday evening now instead of around 2 AM like it was before.

[gpsnowman]

Not Texas related but the Broncos game on Sunday will be a cold one. High of 28 predicted with an 80% chance of snow.