STORM2K

storm_in_a_teacup wrote:

NXStumpy_Robothing wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:2 Possible Tornadoes reported in Southern Mississippi today . . .

Gulf Coast magic.

https://twitter.com/backinblack_wx/status/1377053365574701056
https://twitter.com/PatrickEllisWx/status/1377038763919040513

Also looks like to be a decent TOR on the ground near Spencer, LA (not pictured in the image above, that was for the earlier Mississippi storm near US-49).

Sorry for the really late comment on this but why would the Gulf Coast be a better environment for tornadoes? Maybe it depends on where on the Gulf Coast you are? In Texas it definitely doesn’t feel like the Gulf Coast enhances tornado formation.

Apologies for the delay in responding, been a bit busy unfortunately.

Regarding the synoptic environment, it's more of the combination of the surface-backed winds bringing moisture onshore and the closeness of said moisture to the wide, flat swath of land which occasionally allow even shallow rainshowers to produce. It's not necessarily common, but seeing this level of onshore flow and marginal shear produce a weak tornado/waterspout or two is never out of the question.

As for geography specifics? I'm not entirely sure. My best guess is that the parallel nature of the larger Gulf of Mexico and the land of southern Mississippi allowed for that moisture flow to make its way a little further inland before getting lofted by the weak lifting mechanism and shear.

There's a lot that many people much smarter than me have discussed in detail, in which a good thread of that information and how it happened can be found here, specifically from a NWS Jackson met:  https://twitter.com/DLambWX/status/1377720155086675973

Wasn't expecting a slight risk for Tuesday this early. We'll see if it holds up for my area but it still looks like the cap will be too strong for a major outbreak

Thursday is looking strong. Still a bit too far out to get a good lookin but bears watching. On a side note I have baby foxes on my grandparents land.

Weather Dude wrote:Wasn't expecting a slight risk for Tuesday this early. We'll see if it holds up for my area but it still looks like the cap will be too strong for a major outbreak

Last I heard timing was kind of unfavorable late night and into the morning

Brent wrote:

Weather Dude wrote:Wasn't expecting a slight risk for Tuesday this early. We'll see if it holds up for my area but it still looks like the cap will be too strong for a major outbreak

Last I heard timing was kind of unfavorable late night and into the morning

Yeah that's how it's been this year so far lol

Slight risk Tomorrow in SE Kansas, Western Missouri & NE Oklahoma . . .

The Tornado threat appears to be where the storms start to form, then converge into a line or complex . . .

What is with the 6z GEFS?

Mean SCP




Max SCP

Personal Tornado Forecast April Update:
Forecast from Feb: Plains-Average, Dixie Alley- Above Average
So far my personal forecast remains on track and no changes need to be made. Dixie had a huge March including 2 high risks major tornado outbreaks. Meanwhile the plains have had 1 major event (3/13) but other than that there hasn't been a whole lot of action since then. Looking ahead at the models, there does appear to be some potential for some smaller scale events in the next couple of weeks in the plains, but not anything major.

Will update this again in early May.
April forecast update:
Plains- Average
Dixie-Above Average

The GFS is now showing increased activity for the 3-10 day period for much of the southern plains.

12z GEFS STILL says an outbreak of storms in Oklahoma & Kansas, likely cap enhanced





Max SCP

Iceresistance wrote:12z GEFS STILL says an outbreak of storms in Oklahoma & Kansas, likely cap enhanced

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/GEFSSGP_con_meanscp_036.png

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/GEFSSGP_con_meanscp_04288cf0735a9e6b0fa.png

Max SCP

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/GEFSSGP_con_maxscp_0368a0ca779ee1eff2d.png

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/GEFSSGP_con_maxscp_0423a8b9020d0c89386.png

Yeah if it wasn't for the cap, tomorrow would probably be a major event

Got downgraded to marginal, no surprise there lol. That's the name of the game this year so far

Weather Dude wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:12z GEFS STILL says an outbreak of storms in Oklahoma & Kansas, likely cap enhanced

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/GEFSSGP_con_meanscp_036.png

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/GEFSSGP_con_meanscp_04288cf0735a9e6b0fa.png

Max SCP

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/GEFSSGP_con_maxscp_0368a0ca779ee1eff2d.png

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/GEFSSGP_con_maxscp_0423a8b9020d0c89386.png

Yeah if it wasn't for the cap, tomorrow would probably be a major event

The BIGGEST question is "Will the Cap keeps the storms off or they will blow up?"

I've seen days where there was a cap bust expected, but the storms just blew up . . .

Weather Dude wrote:Got downgraded to marginal, no surprise there lol. That's the name of the game this year so far

The certainty for the Cap is high now across Oklahoma.

This is what the SPC is saying for Tomorrow

Strong CINH will preclude thunderstorm initiation through late
afternoon. As the surface low deepens and the upper low begins to
eject eastward, moderate southerly low level flow will transport
mid-50s to low 60s dewpoints northward across the southern/central
Plains and mid-MO/mid-upper MS Valleys. A dryline will extend
southward from the surface low to the OK/TX border and then
southwestward into southwest TX. While strong heating is forecast
near the dryline across TX, a stout cap is expected to remain in
place and little development along the dryline is expected. More
likely, convective initiation will occur during the late
afternoon/early evening closer to the surface low as a cold front
drops southeastward and overtakes the dryline across west-central
KS.

A ways out, but 4/15 is holding my interest

cheezyWXguy wrote:A ways out, but 4/15 is holding my interest

And April 9th in parts of Eastern Texas . . .

Slight Risk now includes SE Nebraska . . .

I think today might be an example of what could happen throughout the rest of the season. Decent setup ruined by a strong cap due to drought in the SW. It appears the drought is only going to get worse. Combine that with medium to long-range models not showing much this month for the plains, right now it looks like there's not going to be anything big anytime soon. The GFS has a system coming through on 4/15 but it has absolutely 0 cape for it (and pretty much 0 cape the entire run). I know cape isn't the best way to look at potential systems but having a GFS run with hardly any cape in the plains for pretty much the entire run during peak severe season isn't something you see all that often...

Slight Risk extended North

Weather Dude wrote:I think today might be an example of what could happen throughout the rest of the season. Decent setup ruined by a strong cap due to drought in the SW. It appears the drought is only going to get worse. Combine that with medium to long-range models not showing much this month for the plains, right now it looks like there's not going to be anything big anytime soon. The GFS has a system coming through on 4/15 but it has absolutely 0 cape for it (and pretty much 0 cape the entire run). I know cape isn't the best way to look at potential systems but having a GFS run with hardly any cape in the plains for pretty much the entire run during peak severe season isn't something you see all that often...

To add to this it appears that the MJO has been in unfavorable phases for large outbreaks, which explains the recent lull. It also appears that it will be moving into Phases 6 and 7, and possibly 8, which are also unfavorable. That being said, if it moves into Phases 1 and 2, then the end of the month going into May could get interesting. Especially if it goes to 2, which is the most favorable.

Weather Dude wrote:

Weather Dude wrote:I think today might be an example of what could happen throughout the rest of the season. Decent setup ruined by a strong cap due to drought in the SW. It appears the drought is only going to get worse. Combine that with medium to long-range models not showing much this month for the plains, right now it looks like there's not going to be anything big anytime soon. The GFS has a system coming through on 4/15 but it has absolutely 0 cape for it (and pretty much 0 cape the entire run). I know cape isn't the best way to look at potential systems but having a GFS run with hardly any cape in the plains for pretty much the entire run during peak severe season isn't something you see all that often...

To add to this it appears that the MJO has been in unfavorable phases for large outbreaks, which explains the recent lull. It also appears that it will be moving into Phases 6 and 7, and possibly 8, which are also unfavorable. That being said, if it moves into Phases 1 and 2, then the end of the month going into May could get interesting. Especially if it goes to 2, which is the most favorable.

The MJO is going into Phase 6 right now . . .