Texas Fall-2015

[Ntxw]

The GFS out in fantasy land has basically no warmup(outside of maybe a day or two) before more wind shifts/fronts... northerly flow remains in place for a few days after the Friday front. It has mostly lows in the 60s(around 70 at the worst) behind it.

so I definitely think the fronts are going to be a regular thing

Weatherbug has dropped to 80/65 next Sunday up here NE of DFW.

Hope so, the Euro weeklies from yesterday was showing that too. And deep storm in the southwest/southern Rockies with EPAC storms recurving. So not only it is a cooling trend, it is also a wet one. Flow from the Pacific subtropical jet.

[weatherdude1108]

I think the Fall El Niño transition is happening!

[Ntxw]

Ryan Maue tweeted this satellite image I thought was pretty cool. Kevin's moisture streaming north. Unfortunately the current ridging pattern doesn't favor it coming to Texas. However in a couple of weeks with the breakdown of ridging and possibly big hurricanes there will look impressive. Bad for the west coast of Mexico though but good for us.



Speaking of El Nino, lots of fresh data being the new month. Most guidance has this being the top 2 of El Nino events. Currently in the vicinity at the top with 1997. When coupled with the ocean and atmosphere, not many others can beat it. We won't see another El Nino of this magnitude again for perhaps another decade so take it all in.

[Brent]

I don't really like looking at Accuweather's 45-day forecast... but I am looking at it through the 1st of October and if it verifies wow. Highs upper 70s/around 80 after the 23rd all the way through... and a few rainy days... and that's not even hanging at climo(which I've found with this forecast before) which is more mid 80s.

What's funny is it has mid 90s next weekend when the forecast is easily mid 80s if not lower. Lol. Only has 1 90 after that.

[TheProfessor]

Ryan Maue tweeted this satellite image I thought was pretty cool. Kevin's moisture streaming north. Unfortunately the current ridging pattern doesn't favor it coming to Texas. However in a couple of weeks with the breakdown of ridging and possibly big hurricanes there will look impressive. Bad for the west coast of Mexico though but good for us.



Speaking of El Nino, lots of fresh data being the new month. Most guidance has this being the top 2 of El Nino events. Currently in the vicinity at the top with 1997. When coupled with the ocean and atmosphere, not many others can beat it. We won't see another El Nino of this magnitude again for perhaps another decade so take it all in.

The ridge should get pushed east a bit or at the very least weaken a bit as the Low pressure currently in the Northwest moves to the East-Northeast.

[Ntxw]

One tid bit to note is that this summer the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation have been hard pressed to go positive. This is opposite of the past 2 season which the AO/NAO couplet have raged positive. Will the persistence continue?



Remember we don't need the AO/NAO (though it helps; EPO is important for Arctic outbreaks in Texas) for severe Arctic outbreaks but storms, and snow, and blocking systems as well as keeping it colder for longer they do play a role. 2009-2010 if you remember was not memorable so much for the big arctic attacks, but rather sustained cold and numerous bowling ball storms. Especially December, and Feb, of that year with the severely -AO/NAO

[weatherdude1108]

Just got a HEAVY shower at the house.

[ravyrn]

My forecast:

DFW - 9/26

AUS - 10/13

IAH - 9/27

[gpsnowman]

Just a few more days. Just a few more days. Just a few more days.

[Brent]

Just a few more days. Just a few more days. Just a few more days.

I can't like this enough.

[South Texas Storms]

Today's 12z Euro run is very interesting in the long range period (8-10 days from now). First, in about 6 days it shows a tropical storm forming from a stalled cold frontal boundary in the NW Gulf and then it moves onshore near Beaumont in 8 days. Second, it shows a strong cold front moving through the Plains associated with a deep upper-level trough when the run ends in 10 days. If the Euro verifies, blizzard conditions would likely occur in the Northern Rockies in 10 days.

[Brent]

Today's 12z Euro run is very interesting in the long range period (8-10 days from now). First, in about 6 days it shows a tropical storm forming from a stalled cold frontal boundary in the NW Gulf and then it moves onshore near Beaumont in 8 days. Second, it shows a strong cold front moving through the Plains associated with a deep upper-level trough when the run ends in 10 days. If the Euro verifies, blizzard conditions would likely occur in the Northern Rockies in 10 days.

Awesome...

14th 100 degree day at DFW this year today

The GFS annoys me. Now it trends warmer and has no lows below 70 for awhile.

[Rgv20]

Today's 12z Euro run is very interesting in the long range period (8-10 days from now). First, in about 6 days it shows a tropical storm forming from a stalled cold frontal boundary in the NW Gulf and then it moves onshore near Beaumont in 8 days.

18zGFS hints at a low forming just south of Brownsville and quickly moves it north by late in the weekend...a couple of the 12zECMWF Ensemble agree with the scenario suggested by the Operational ECMWF and 18zGFS. Will shall see if future models run continue to indicate this possible low.

[Ntxw]

I would also keep an eye on Tropical Storm Linda in the EPAC. This one could be rapidly intensifying and become a seriously powerful hurricane. While it is not forecasted to make landfall, with a trough digging in it's moisture will stream up northeastward interacting with frontal boundaries across the state.

Also reminder tomorrow is the last day to post 59F or lower predictions for the three sites. Jump in, who knows you might win it just guessing!

[aggiecutter]

Today's 12z Euro run is very interesting in the long range period (8-10 days from now). First, in about 6 days it shows a tropical storm forming from a stalled cold frontal boundary in the NW Gulf and then it moves onshore near Beaumont in 8 days. Second, it shows a strong cold front moving through the Plains associated with a deep upper-level trough when the run ends in 10 days. If the Euro verifies, blizzard conditions would likely occur in the Northern Rockies in 10 days.

[weatherdude1108]

Something to talk about for a change.

[Ntxw]

I'm not sold on a gulf named entity (yet). Conditions are not too conducive and there will be shear a plenty with passing cold front(s). I think the models are doing their usual spin stuff up as height falls with the fronts. Though I can believe a chug of moisture could very well come up from the BOC. It won't have too much time to develop though, as I mentioned look towards the EPAC from STJ enhancement.

[Brent]

Well this is interesting...



and ugh... what happened to the big cool down next weekend? We've gone from highs close to 80 to highs around 90. *shrugs* Bordering on just a less hot front again instead of fall.

[Rgv20]

6zGFS still hints at a possible Low developing south of Brownsville but not as extreme as the 0zECMWF.....0zECMWF Ensembles are not as deep with the low pressure system as the operational run. Hopefully South Texas gets a good drink out of it!

[Rgv20]

NWS in Houston on the possibility of an organize Low Pressure System..

SUNDAY THINGS BEGIN TO GET CONCERNING... MODELS
HAVE BEEN HAVING SOME ISSUES WITH DEVELOPMENT OF TROUGHING ALOFT
OVER TX/MEXICO THE LAST FEW RUNS...DOING SO THEN BACKING OFF. NOW
BOTH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEGUN TO COALESCE TOWARDS A VERY WET
SOLUTION STARTING LATE NEXT SUNDAY FOR THE GFS EXPANDING NORTHWARD
INTO SETX EARLY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS 6
HOURS OR SO SLOWER BUT MORE INTENSE...PW SURGING TO 2.5-2.6"!
BOTH MODELS DEVELOP A VERY ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (PERHAPS
INITIALLY A COASTAL TROUGH ON THE TAIL END OF THE REMNANT FRONT)
THAT QUICKLY WRAPS UP AND MOVES INTO SETX. THIS SCENARIO MAY HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. STAY TUNED.