Texas Fall-2016

[gpsnowman]

It is a window open kind of night. Will start out warm but with the fan on and temps in the lower 60s by morning, it will feel fantastic. Just a one night tease I think, for now.

[Ntxw]

Ran in 65F this morning was great! Let me tell you, I don't think I have seen such green grass and lush trees at the end of summer. Maybe 2007 but it has been a long time.

This fall is going to have some spectactular colors. Especially if we can get it a little cold in October

[weatherdude1108]

69 degrees here this morning at the house. Beautiful!

[Yukon Cornelius]

1.5" of rain out of the front and a low this morning of 58. I can't complain at all.

[Brent]

The end of the week and next weekend are looking very unsettled... and the GFS remains active beyond that. Fall is near!

[Tireman4]

It is still sweltering here in the Bayou City, but I see our highs are in the upper 80's, not lower to mid 90's. That is a start.

Today
Isolated showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Tonight
Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm after midnight.
Tuesday
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 89. Light northeast wind becoming east 5 to 10 mph in the morning.
Tuesday Night
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Wednesday
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 89. Light and variable wind becoming east 5 to 10 mph in the morning.
Wednesday Night
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75.
Thursday
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 89.
Thursday Night
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74.
Friday
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 88.
Friday Night
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74.
Saturday
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 88.
Saturday Night
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74.
Sunday
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 86.

[Brent]

FWD mentioned an MCS or squall line Friday in the morning AFD:

The broad upper trough will continue to slowly shift eastward on
Friday which will cause an upper-level jet to nose into TX. On
Friday, storms should initiate along a southward advancing cold
front through West TX which could encroach on our area possibly as
an MCS or a squall line aided by the increased wind shear from the
strengthening speed maxes aloft.

[1900hurricane]

From this afternoon's HGX discussion:

.CLIMATE...
Going through some rainfall data tonight and much of the area has
had some impressive rainfall totals. 2016 rainfall at Cypress,
Houston Westbury, Houston Bush and Baytown have all exceeded their
normal annual (1981-2010) rainfall and it`s only mid September.
Since January 1st 2015, Baytown has received 167.75 inches of rain
which is 67.08 inches above normal over the roughly 21 month
period. This location is averaging about 8 inches of rain per
month over the last 21 months. 43

[weatherdude1108]

From this afternoon's HGX discussion:

.CLIMATE...
Going through some rainfall data tonight and much of the area has
had some impressive rainfall totals. 2016 rainfall at Cypress,
Houston Westbury, Houston Bush and Baytown have all exceeded their
normal annual (1981-2010) rainfall and it`s only mid September.
Since January 1st 2015, Baytown has received 167.75 inches of rain
which is 67.08 inches above normal over the roughly 21 month
period. This location is averaging about 8 inches of rain per
month over the last 21 months. 43

That is a CRAZY amount of rain!
Wow.

[Tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 140953
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
453 AM CDT Wed Sep 14 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Weak ridging remains anchored over the state, with the highest
moisture ridging up over the western edge of the forecast area.
Widely scattered showers are forming in the northwestern Gulf
this morning and traveling westward within the easterly steering
flow pattern atop lower central Gulf pressure. The remainder of
this work week`s synoptic pattern is to take the Great Basin
upper low and pull in northeast over this weak southern Plains
ridging into the Northern Plains states by early Friday. The
precipitation forecast is pretty straight forward the next couple
of days; one of early day coastal showers with an isolated storm
/towering cumulus blossoming into further inland showers and
thunder as mid to upper 80 convective temperatures are achieved.
Higher eastern moisture will advect in the next few days and this
will equate to increasing cloudiness each subsequent day, easterly
breezes turning more onshore by late week. Periods of slightly
higher PV moving in upon easterlies will generate more shower/storm
areal coverage across the nearshore waters and this activity will
eventually transition to more inland convective coverage Friday.
Temperature behavior will be cut and paste over this last week of
summer; average middle 70 minimums/upper 80s to lower 90s maximums.

With autumn around the corner, the medium range models seem to be
struggling with run-to-run consistency in the evolution of the
long range solution. The GFS ensemble members, along with the
Canadian (CMC) solution and ECMWF to some degree, want to hang
back a broad trough west of the Rockies (behind the wake of this
current western CONUS open wave trough passage), eventually cutting
off a weak upper low across the Desert SW by early next week with
an elongated 590-ish 5H ridge extending from western Texas back
towards the southeastern U.S.. The solutions begin to diverge over
the last few days of the summer season. The more wet GFS/CMC retain
this broad western trough and take it slowly east while the drier
ECMWF holds this trough back and amplify the downstream ridge
over the Gulf/MS River Valley by mid week. A shallow trough passage
will keep any early week fropa from entering our region so little
to no change is expected in daily temperatures and onshore wind
behavior. The mid to long range forecast is a split between the
two aforementioned solutions; higher near coastal morning shower/storm
chances that will transition to moderate rain/thunder probs late
in the morning through late afternoon. This forecast leans towards
the drier ECMWF solution by the end of summer as upper ridging
wins out and keeps southern CWA slight POPS in place next Wednesday.
Autumn `16 officially commences at 9:21 AM LT next Thursday. 31

&&

.MARINE...
East winds 10-15kt (maybe a touch higher at night) and 3-4ft seas
should persist thru Thurs. Tides still running 1.0-1.5ft above
normal along the upper Tx coast which is putting water close, or up
to the the HWY 124/87 intersection a few hours before/after times of
high tide. No problems expected elsewhere. Highest tide of the day
is around 345am today. Levels should steady out, then fall later
this afternoon. They should peak roughly around the same level at
410am the Thurs morning high tide w/ maybe a little higher wave
runup.

Winds gradually veer more to the SE/S Friday into this weekend with
speeds/seas likely remaining below caution criteria. Water levels,
though remain slightly above normal, should fall enough whereas
Bolivar water levels aren`t an issue anymore. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
Iso/sct precip ongoing near the coast and offshore. Though anticipate
some iso activity further inland w/ daytime heating...guidance indicates
less coverage than we`ve seen the past several days so will probably
leave out the mention of precip in some of the 12z TAFs. Repeat scenario
tonight & Thurs. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 92 74 93 74 90 / 20 10 20 10 50
Houston (IAH) 91 75 92 75 90 / 20 20 20 20 50
Galveston (GLS) 89 80 87 80 86 / 40 30 30 40 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...31

[Ntxw]

The next few months and winter will be interesting to follow. I went through ONI and really the sample size for weak La Nina/neutral following an El Nino is not that many, even more so weak La Nina is elusive. Not a lot to go by, if anyone tells you they know how the next 6-10 months will be is probably not being honest. A lot of strange things have happened the past few months (QBO debacle for instance). Sample size is small.

[Portastorm]

The next few months and winter will be interesting to follow. I went through ONI and really the sample size for weak La Nina/neutral following an El Nino is not that many, even more so weak La Nina is elusive. Not a lot to go by, if anyone tells you they know how the next 6-10 months will be is probably not being honest. A lot of strange things have happened the past few months (QBO debacle for instance). Sample size is small.

I have read similar from long-term forecaster pro mets. They current chatter suggests that there are a lot of conflicting signals showing up in the various atmospheric markers which they follow. There are no clear cut signs about what may lie ahead from a seasonal perspective. We are entering a very interesting time for the weather and I know we're all eager to see how it shakes out.

[Brent]

I'm ready for some real cold fronts... tired of seeing 90s. The rain amounts expected at the end of the week have really decreased...

[weatherdude1108]

Rain chances are dwindling by the hour, based on the latest EWX discussion.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 141947
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
247 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2016

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
Broad subtropical ridging aloft and light winds will continue to
maintain hot and humid September days and daily chances for
isolated to scattered convection. A weak elevated disturbance that
produced heavy rain this morning over Uvalde Co. is not likely to
repeat a nocturnal cluster tonight, as a mid to upper level ridge
axis has sharpened over Central TX.

Over the Central Gulf, a surface low is connected to a weak mid
to upper level low pressure system and is enhancing convection
along the coast and offshore while reducing rain chances over the
I-35 corridor by creating light surface divergence by bending the
Coastal Plains wind direction to the northeast. A weak low level
convergence pattern extends from the Rio Grande Plains into North
Central TX to result in better coverage of convection generally
west of Hwy 281 through early this evening, then becoming
isolated.

This pattern for mainly diurnal convective activity and a minima
of activity along and just east of I-35 should continue into
Thursday as the Gulf disturbance is forecast to continue drifting
west toward Deep South TX. Only the Canadian model was brave
enough to deepen the low as it moves closer to the ridge axis
aloft, so the preferred model consensus is to weaken the system
near the coast by late thursday with only a slight boost in PoPs
for parts of the Coastal Prairies.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
On Friday the remnants of the weak alongshore Gulf disturbance
are forecast to pull northeastward into SE TX as ridging aloft
increases mid-level westerly winds over South Central TX. Thus
PoPs Friday into Saturday continue to trend downward from a couple
days ago. Another factor in the decreasing PoP trend is that
models have sharpened and retrograded the upstream trough over the
Desert SW which should further help develop upper level stability
over TX. Should this trend continue in subsequent model runs, we
could see PoPs disapper by Sunday. For now, will have to factor in
some blend of the ECM model which continues to hold onto mid level
instability over the Coastal Plains Sunday into Monday. The hot
and humid conditions are thus forecast to continue into the middle
of next week with mainly daytime PoPs tapering off to becoming
insignificant over all but the far SE counties by the middle of
next week.

[JDawg512]

I'm not happy about the decreasing rain chances at all. Gonna have to start watering again. So far have not been lucky to see any showers pass over my house.

[Brent]

This event was so promising on both cooler air and rain and both have way backed off... I know it's only a matter of time til some real fall but it gets old lol

[weatherdude1108]

No showers here at work or my house either. Today was my watering day, but I turned off the system, thinking Mother Nature would help, based on the previous few days' forecast. Should have known better.

[gpsnowman]

This event was so promising on both cooler air and rain and both have way backed off... I know it's only a matter of time til some real fall but it gets old lol

Unfortunately the forecasted Temps have increased a tad. Nothing but lower 90's upper 80's. And no 60's for the next week.

[Brent]

This event was so promising on both cooler air and rain and both have way backed off... I know it's only a matter of time til some real fall but it gets old lol

Unfortunately the forecasted Temps have increased a tad. Nothing but lower 90's upper 80's. And no 60's for the next week.

I'm currently missing out on a downpour by about 2 miles... but at least its cooler lol.

[gboudx]

This event was so promising on both cooler air and rain and both have way backed off... I know it's only a matter of time til some real fall but it gets old lol

Unfortunately the forecasted Temps have increased a tad. Nothing but lower 90's upper 80's. And no 60's for the next week.

I'm currently missing out on a downpour by about 2 miles... but at least its cooler lol.

Same thing happened to us in Rockwall. It was close enough to hear loud thunder and affect the DirecTV satellite signal. But, no drops.