STORM2K

Cerlin wrote:

Brent wrote:

Cerlin wrote:First time being back in Dallas after moving up to Norman—blessed with a little bit of storms. Woot woot!

Norman=College?

Congrats you should have more snow luck up there in theory...

The end of the NAM at 7am predawn Wednesday fropa for DFW

https://i.ibb.co/N2DPm1p/namconus-T2m-scus-53.png

Yes it does! I’m studying Meteorology at OU now! Purely up there because wxman57’s wall doesn’t keep the canadian air away from there as well as it does in Texas.

As for this front, the NAM seems to be running colder than the GFS (GFS actually backed way off with the progressive nature of the front on the 12z by the looks of it)

Hey good for you studying at Oklahoma! I am a 1981 Meteorology grad from OU and that is a good degree to have.

I'm jealous of the cool weather you will be having this week. Still just brutally hot here in Arizona.

well I checked out 3 TV forecasts and all have highs in the 70s Wednesday and Thursday, we'll see

all the models that are public anyway are way warmer on Wednesday at least

one positive if the front doesn't clear is there would probably be a lot more rain like last week

I saw a FB memory that 3 years ago I got down to 52 on this date. I hope our front pushes enough east for us to challenge that number.

The cold front might not be as far east as we had hoped but the setup looks like it could bring a lot of very beneficial rain to western parts of the state that are starting to struggle with drought.

12z NAM has Fall for western DFW and Summer for eastern DFW lol

Ch 4 this morning mentioned it had slowed down and we might not get as cold. They even had to address people asking why the WAPP and the TV forecast did not match.

Could this be the typical models don't handle cold fronts well and seeing as this is a stout front for this time of year perhaps it just pushes on and models catch up? When do we start looking at forecast vs. real time temps?

HockeyTx82 wrote:Ch 4 this morning mentioned it had slowed down and we might not get as cold. They even had to address people asking why the WAPP and the TV forecast did not match.

Could this be the typical models don't handle cold fronts well and seeing as this is a stout front for this time of year perhaps it just pushes on and models catch up? When do we start looking at forecast vs. real time temps?

That's what I thought but when the NAM lost it which is usually the one to watch with these fronts that's when I got concerned

I will say though the NAM pushes through for Thursday so something to watch

Frankly down here, while a strong front would be nice, we need rain more than cool air. Honestly it would be more of a treat/anomaly to get a strong front down here in early to mid-September, coming off one of the hottest Summers/Augusts on record.

But strong fronts plow through and scour out moisture. At this point given our central and south TX drought, I'd prefer the front stall and we get prolonged rains/storms, then subsequent cooler temps.

Green it up and replenish the H2O supplies, then snow.

weatherdude1108 wrote:Frankly down here, while a strong front would be nice, we need rain more than cool air. Honestly it would be more of a treat/anomaly to get a strong front down here in early to mid-September, coming off one of the hottest Summers/Augusts on record.

But strong fronts plow through and scour out moisture. At this point given our central and south TX drought, I'd prefer the front stall and we get prolonged rains/storms, then subsequent cooler temps.

Green it up and replenish the H2O supplies, then snow.

Couldn't agree with you more! While a strong cold front bringing us much cooler air would be nice, it would likely usher in an extended dry period after. We still need rain!

This front is being driven by the SW upper low so with the low hanging back the driving push is further away.

weatherdude1108 wrote:Frankly down here, while a strong front would be nice, we need rain more than cool air. Honestly it would be more of a treat/anomaly to get a strong front down here in early to mid-September, coming off one of the hottest Summers/Augusts on record.

But strong fronts plow through and scour out moisture. At this point given our central and south TX drought, I'd prefer the front stall and we get prolonged rains/storms, then subsequent cooler temps.

Green it up and replenish the H2O supplies, then snow.

Agree 100%!!!

it is all quiet in this thread

starsfan65 wrote:it is all quiet in this thread

The warmer forecast I'm sure is making it quiet

The hype this front had I'm still a little annoyed we may not get below the low 60s hopefully the rain will offset that lol

We still got the NAM, he said hopefully.

Brent wrote:

starsfan65 wrote:it is all quiet in this thread

The warmer forecast I'm sure is making it quiet

The hype this front had I'm still a little annoyed we may not get below the low 60s hopefully the rain will offset that lol

Winter Cancel? Too soon........

#Bust

HockeyTx82 wrote:

Brent wrote:

starsfan65 wrote:it is all quiet in this thread

The warmer forecast I'm sure is making it quiet

The hype this front had I'm still a little annoyed we may not get below the low 60s hopefully the rain will offset that lol

Winter Cancel? Too soon........

I did notice the NW trend which is a winter trademark

only when we're on the southern edge though... it seems to never shift NW when its south of us

Well *someone's* getting a cool down... 8:45 AM

Looks like the northern NM peaks will see 8-16" of snow, with 3-6" at 9,000 ft and 0-2" for northern lower elevation towns.

For areas east of I-35 in TX we are clinging to hope from the NAM and CMC for the front to push at least partially into E TX. Behind the front highs will be in the 70s with lows in the 60s.

Looks like rain chances are coming down east of i35 too. Most of the rain action looks to stay out west