STORM2K

The GFS ensemble mean is showing some rain in central Texas but not before September 17th, fifteen long days away. For the next 9 days, the raw GFS model is forecasting an average high temperature of 102° for Austin Camp Mabry.

Holy crap…it’s like…raining right now? I’d almost forgotten what it looks like

Few pop up showers and storms drifting around DFW this morning.

I can smell the rain, feel the cool air, hear the thunder, but not a single drop to be seen. At least it made for a nice morning on the porch drinking coffee.

It rained an inch five miles from my house. At my house? Nothing. Lol.

It’s like 35 is a barrier.

Looks like things may start to cool down mid September rather than October (at least in terms of triple digits) even the local forecast is calling for mid 90s around that time. I guess time will tell but GFS backs that with some rain chances as well.

Geez, 2-3 inches in a narrow area around Keller. Unfortunately, my house is just west of this range. Lol.

rwfromkansas wrote:Geez, 2-3 inches in a narrow area around Keller. Unfortunately, my house is just west of this range. Lol.

I rained at my house all morning. Basswood and Park Vista. I couldn't believe it.

Dustybottums33 wrote:

rwfromkansas wrote:Geez, 2-3 inches in a narrow area around Keller. Unfortunately, my house is just west of this range. Lol.

I rained at my house all morning. Basswood and Park Vista. I couldn't believe it.

That's awesome. I am on Basswood but just barely west of 35.

Marginal risk for DFW today??

Dustybottums33 wrote:

rwfromkansas wrote:Geez, 2-3 inches in a narrow area around Keller. Unfortunately, my house is just west of this range. Lol.

I rained at my house all morning. Basswood and Park Vista. I couldn't believe it.

That area brings back memories I went to Haltom High school.

FYI 2009 has been popping up a lot in the analogs at 500mb. Only difference is the ridges have more oomph to them than that year, despite similar ridge/trough placement.

Gotwood wrote:

Dustybottums33 wrote:

rwfromkansas wrote:Geez, 2-3 inches in a narrow area around Keller. Unfortunately, my house is just west of this range. Lol.

I rained at my house all morning. Basswood and Park Vista. I couldn't believe it.

That area brings back memories I went to Haltom High school.

That's awesome. My Brother in law went to Haltom as well.

The EWX isn't buying into a cutoff low in mid September. Calling it a "mean tease."

I don't disagree at this point of a hellacious Summer.

Above normal temperatures are expected to continue beyond the long-
term and for much of the month of September. While the 12Z GFS
brings a cut-off low to the state around the middle of the month
with rain chances and much cooler temperatures in the 70s and lower
80s, it`s likely just a very mean tease; this is a notable outlier
within the ensembles.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1

weatherdude1108 wrote:The EWX isn't buying into a cutoff low in mid September. Calling it a "mean tease."

I don't disagree at this point of a hellacious Summer.

Above normal temperatures are expected to continue beyond the long-
term and for much of the month of September. While the 12Z GFS
brings a cut-off low to the state around the middle of the month
with rain chances and much cooler temperatures in the 70s and lower
80s, it`s likely just a very mean tease; this is a notable outlier
within the ensembles.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1

Very possible but the ensembles are starting to trend a little wetter during the middle part of the month. The hot and dry weather pattern likely won't be lasting too much longer. I'm thinking another week or two before some changes arrive.

Outflow-driven storms bubbling up right around DFW airport. Even though we added another 100F day to the 2023 tally, maybe the streak of days without measurable rain ends today?

DallasAg wrote:Outflow-driven storms bubbling up right around DFW airport. Even though we added another 100F day to the 2023 tally, maybe the streak of days without measurable rain ends today?

Measurable rainfall, waiting for the tally but at least 0.03".

Ntxw wrote:

DallasAg wrote:Outflow-driven storms bubbling up right around DFW airport. Even though we added another 100F day to the 2023 tally, maybe the streak of days without measurable rain ends today?

Measurable rainfall, waiting for the tally but at least 0.03".

.04 per TexMesonet, and Love Field didn't even get a single drop!

0.20" for the hour and 77F at DFW.

South Texas Storms wrote:

weatherdude1108 wrote:The EWX isn't buying into a cutoff low in mid September. Calling it a "mean tease."

I don't disagree at this point of a hellacious Summer.

Above normal temperatures are expected to continue beyond the long-
term and for much of the month of September. While the 12Z GFS
brings a cut-off low to the state around the middle of the month
with rain chances and much cooler temperatures in the 70s and lower
80s, it`s likely just a very mean tease; this is a notable outlier
within the ensembles.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1

Very possible but the ensembles are starting to trend a little wetter during the middle part of the month. The hot and dry weather pattern likely won't be lasting too much longer. I'm thinking another week or two before some changes arrive.

Speaking of, just saw this local weather story pop up.

https://www.kxan.com/weather/weather-bl ... -days/amp/

hopefully to