STORM2K

18z GFS +51 hours sounding near Asher, OK

The SCP is trending north . . .

Well the 10% tor risk definitely busted today. One of the few events so far this year that hasn't verified. Time to look ahead to Friday's event.

Enhanced now for Northern Texas, HATCHED for very large Hail over DFW

Now I'm under a Slight Risk . . .



The Triple Point seems to be now at the Red River

This I think will go moderate.

Gulf should inject the trough soon into the deep south.
What I mean is fill it with moisture to clarify.

GFS now has the Triple Point between OKC & Ardmore along I-35

UNCONTAMINATED 12z NAM soundings over Central Oklahoma

+30 Hours over Tecumseh, OK


+33 Hours near Shawnee, OK

New Day 2 outlook is out and the enhanced risk is maintained. However, the 10% tor risk has been removed, but the 30 hatched hail risk is much bigger than on the previous outlook. I wouldn't be surprised if they upgrade to moderate for wind or hail sometime tomorrow. Looks like the cap will keep the tornado threat in check for the most part. One major factor that makes this event even more dangerous is that it's going to be a nocturnal event for the most part, so most people will be sleeping throughout the main event. Hopefully they will have a way to get alerts/warnings.

Moderate risk for wind added. The 10% tor risk is also back. Also my area went from a general t-storm area to just outside of the enhanced risk in a single update...

Weather Dude wrote:Moderate risk for wind added. The 10% tor risk is also back. Also my area went from a general t-storm area to just outside of the enhanced risk in a single update...
https://i.imgur.com/JubURqA.png

kind of surprised to see the enhanced so close

Moderate risk now includes up to Fort Smith, AR

We could have a derecho on our hands.

Mesoscale Discussion #339

Tennis ball sized hail reported recently in Alabama

12z NAM sounding over Tecumseh, OK

Nam and HRRR remove the cap entirely over dfw with 4000+ cape right before the boundary moves through. What is keeping storms from blowing up in that environment?

11:30 AM Update

Severe thunderstorm watch #76

10% HATCHED tornado area now for Mississippi

Storms are starting to blow up near the Triple Point in Oklahoma (And along a warm front in Northern Oklahoma)

Mesoscale Discussion #345

80% of a watch across most of Oklahoma