Texas Fall 2017

[gboudx]

The gfs entire run is pretty much a torch no cold air at all

A torch?

Above normal warmth. I really don't even pay attention to the posts about the long range models. Too much time for things to change.

[Brent]

The gfs entire run is pretty much a torch no cold air at all

A torch?

Above normal warmth. I really don't even pay attention to the posts about the long range models. Too much time for things to change.

Indeed. We'll know much more about thanksgiving next weekend

[starsfan65]

A torch?

Above normal warmth. I really don't even pay attention to the posts about the long range models. Too much time for things to change.

Indeed. We'll know much more about thanksgiving next weekend

I am tired of warm Thanksgivings!!

[bubba hotep]

Wow, that is an ugly look...

[Brent]

Wow, that is an ugly look...

I'm having flashbacks to last year's "winter"...

DFW first freeze was December 8th... that's less than 4 weeks from now

0z GFS does have the Thanksgiving front back but before that... near record highs Friday. Mid to upper 80s.

[CaptinCrunch]

NTX on average doesn't see it first official freeze till after November 20th. Only 8 times since 1990 has DFW airport record its first freeze before November 20th.

Models are struggling @ the 7 to 10 day range, so I wouldn't get too excited or disappointed over any forecast that's 2 weeks out.

[iorange55]

So I’m going down to Marfa this weekend to hike in Big Bend and go to a star party at the observatory. One of the main reasons I’m going is to see the night sky. The official forecast is still calling for a clear weekend, but I’ve noticed the GFS output is starting to show cloud cover. How accurate is the cloud cover prediction, 5 days out?

[starsfan65]

So I’m going down to Marfa this weekend to hike in Big Bend and go to a star party at the observatory. One of the main reasons I’m going is to see the night sky. The official forecast is still calling for a clear weekend, but I’ve noticed the GFS output is starting to show cloud cover. How accurate is the cloud cover prediction, 5 days out?

i don't like the weather for Thanksgiving!!

[Brent]

GFS dumps the cold into Texas just after Thanksgiving but we're still in fantasy land. Close to a DFW freeze the weekend after.

[starsfan65]

GFS dumps the cold into Texas just after Thanksgiving but we're still in fantasy land. Close to a DFW freeze the weekend after.

It is still 11 days away.

[Brent]

GFS dumps the cold into Texas just after Thanksgiving but we're still in fantasy land. Close to a DFW freeze the weekend after.

It is still 11 days away.

Yup, too far out, but the idea of a Thanksgiving front continues to hang around which is good, but the other models also hint at it

The Euro actually appears to blast through a sizable front 2 days before Thanksgiving on the 0z, lows close to 30s on Thanksgiving Eve and highs around 50 DFW

[Ntxw]

After some back and forth guidance is settling. Front by week's end should make things chilly. TG period front still in play but that is still a 10 day forecast.

[CaptinCrunch]

After a warm and balmy end to this coming week, Autumn makes an abrupt return with a strong cold front arriving late Friday night and Saturday morning. Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees colder with lows in the upper 30s and 40s, with highs in the 60s. Brisk north winds 15 to 20 mph and gusty next Saturday will become light and variable Saturday night with frost possible a few areas Sunday morning. Sunday will be mostly sunny and cool. No precipitation is expected.

[bubba hotep]

After some back and forth guidance is settling. Front by week's end should make things chilly. TG period front still in play but that is still a 10 day forecast.

00z Euro back on the Thanksgiving cold front, lots of flipping and flopping. However, the GFS has been more consistent with that cold shot, so now both the 00z runs show it.

[TexasStorm]

Marathon training starts today for me... so that means it will be a torch all the way until March

[Tireman4]

Marathon training starts today for me... so that means it will be a torch all the way until March

Which marathon?

[JDawg512]

Not much in the way of rain in the forecast either. This makes me grumpy...

[TexasStorm]

Marathon training starts today for me... so that means it will be a torch all the way until March

Which marathon?

Shamrock Marathon in Virginia Beach on March 18th

[Ntxw]

Just a little bit of a history look.

On this day November 13, 1976 DFW recorded 4.7" of fresh fallen snow. On the same date in 1906 and 1986 the high temperature was 33F!

[bubba hotep]

Euro Weeklies are warm and dry through Christmas... Maybe January?