Page 46 of 55

Re: Texas Fall 2017

Posted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 1:01 pm
by bubba hotep
And the 12z GFS goes full retard with single digits for the northern burbs and keeps DFW below freezing for nearly 3 days. Oh yeah, snow!

Re: Texas Fall 2017

Posted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 1:22 pm
by Portastorm
I just saw that GFS run and came over here thinking the thread would have been blown up by now by you Metroplexers! :lol:

Re: Texas Fall 2017

Posted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 1:23 pm
by TexasBreeze
Shades of Leon Lett weekend from that model...

Re: Texas Fall 2017

Posted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 1:23 pm
by Brent
I just pulled up the DFW Meteogram and checked 3 times to make sure I didn't click on some far away northern city... :P

Re: Texas Fall 2017

Posted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 1:24 pm
by Portastorm
But here is why it won't verify ... it shows snow for Austin. So you KNOW it won't verify. :wink:

Re: Texas Fall 2017

Posted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 1:25 pm
by Theepicman116
So you’re telling me there’s a chance for snow after thanksgiving in the dfw area?

Re: Texas Fall 2017

Posted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 1:26 pm
by Ntxw
Theepicman116 wrote:So you’re telling me there’s a chance for snow after thanksgiving in the dfw area?


Its fantasy world technically. But its the first "modeled" arctic blast of the season. We are all skeptical due to model inconsistencies and warmth winning out. See it then believe it mode.

Re: Texas Fall 2017

Posted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 1:27 pm
by WacoWx
Just the fact that a model is showing something positive regarding winter in the long range has peaked my interest.

I'm not sure I can take another warm winter, but I will if I have to .

Re: Texas Fall 2017

Posted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 1:32 pm
by Ntxw
WacoWx wrote:Just the fact that a model is showing something positive regarding winter in the long range has peaked my interest.

I'm not sure I can take another warm winter, but I will if I have to .


2013 got rolling near the same period. Fingers crossed the warm waters in the GOA we've built the past month or two works. Even half of the model run would be success.

Re: Texas Fall 2017

Posted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 1:37 pm
by CaptinCrunch
Portastorm wrote:But here is why it won't verify ... it shows snow for Austin. So you KNOW it won't verify. :wink:


To the pit of misery for you Sir.... :grrr: DILLY DILLY............ :lol:

Re: Texas Fall 2017

Posted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 1:40 pm
by CaptinCrunch
@Ntxw.........Don't make me send you with Porta...... :lol:

Re: Texas Fall 2017

Posted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 1:41 pm
by Brent
In other news the 12z Euro has an even bigger rain event before Thanksgiving now

Re: Texas Fall 2017

Posted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 1:56 pm
by starsfan65
Brent wrote:In other news the 12z Euro has an even bigger rain event before Thanksgiving now
What they got for high temps?

Re: Texas Fall 2017

Posted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 1:57 pm
by starsfan65
Ntxw wrote:
Theepicman116 wrote:So you’re telling me there’s a chance for snow after thanksgiving in the dfw area?


Its fantasy world technically. But its the first "modeled" arctic blast of the season. We are all skeptical due to model inconsistencies and warmth winning out. See it then believe it mode.
Warmth will not win out!!

Re: Texas Fall 2017

Posted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 2:01 pm
by Cpv17
Huge differences between the Euro and GFS in regards to temperatures. Anyone care to explain why?

Re: Texas Fall 2017

Posted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 2:01 pm
by Brent
starsfan65 wrote:
Brent wrote:In other news the 12z Euro has an even bigger rain event before Thanksgiving now
What they got for high temps?


50s Wednesday and Thanksgiving near 60 Friday

No cold at the end of the Euro

GFS mid 70s Wednesday low 60s Thanksgiving low 50s Friday

Re: Texas Fall 2017

Posted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 2:11 pm
by Ntxw
Cpv17 wrote:Huge differences between the Euro and GFS in regards to temperatures. Anyone care to explain why?


Because the Euro has been forecasting heat 7-10 days out consistently since update :lol:.

Serious note, the Pacific pattern differs between the two.

Re: Texas Fall 2017

Posted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 2:21 pm
by Portastorm
Ntxw wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:Huge differences between the Euro and GFS in regards to temperatures. Anyone care to explain why?


Because the Euro has been forecasting heat 7-10 days out consistently since update :lol:.

Serious note, the Pacific pattern differs between the two.


To Ntxw's points ... you guys know I generally bow in the direction of King Euro but even I have to admit that it's not what it used to be. Not saying that 12z GFS run will verify but I just don't think we're in an environment these days where we can "bank" on the Euro.

Re: Texas Fall 2017

Posted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 2:50 pm
by TeamPlayersBlue
Its a weird run too. I remember an ULL dropping into mexico like that super nino year but it looks funky. Lets see if the GFS sticks with it.

Its also air from near Siberia, i dont hate it!

Re: Texas Fall 2017

Posted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 3:12 pm
by weatherdude1108
Austin's freezing drizzle being advertised, although it is in model fantasy land this run.

Image
Image