STORM2K

TheProfessor wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:

TheProfessor wrote:I think everyone here should still be careful what they wish for. I know yall want cool weather and rain, but you're playing with fire when you start hoping for a tropical cyclone well into the season when the Gulf is open for business. We've seen weak tropical systems turn into nightmares twice in the Gulf the past 2 years(Harvey and Michael) and very quickly as well. A re-curving EPAC storm would be far more beneficial for Texas.

I just want a weak system and about 5”. We haven’t had but about an inch of rain here since mid June.

Yeah I get that, but there's no guarantee that a system stays weak. If we could control the weather and send a weak low into south Texas I'd be all for it.

Exactly what the 0z GFS shows lol

But you're right a Gulf storm is a dangerous idea this close to peak season but would an EPAC storm really recurve this early is my question? If it just goes west like they have been it does us no good

Ugh something needs to shake up this pattern though

Brent wrote:

TheProfessor wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:
I just want a weak system and about 5”. We haven’t had but about an inch of rain here since mid June.

Yeah I get that, but there's no guarantee that a system stays weak. If we could control the weather and send a weak low into south Texas I'd be all for it.

Exactly what the 0z GFS shows lol

But you're right a Gulf storm is a dangerous idea this close to peak season but would an EPAC storm really recurve this early is my question? If it just goes west like they have been it does us no good

Ugh something needs to shake up this pattern though

A strong EPAC storm can shake up the 500mb pattern just like a strong Gulf storm would. Not to mention it would help keep any potential Gulf storm from exploding, at least while in the BOC. So the 0z GFS would be the best case scenario. The latest GEFS and EPS have been hatching on to a stronger Gulf storm, but we're still a good 8-10 days out and I'm not even that sure if this tropical wave makes it into the Gulf.

The GEFS came in a bit stronger again. It will be interesting to see if the deterministic start picking up on this again or if the GEFS and EPS are too bullish on this storm right now.

TheProfessor wrote:The GEFS came in a bit stronger again. It will be interesting to see if the deterministic start picking up on this again or if the GEFS and EPS are too bullish on this storm right now.

https://i.imgur.com/x5IJ2ue.gif

CAT FIVE IN THE GULF !!!!!

It appears the the NWS Radar website will undergo desperately needed major upgrades and improvements by May, 2020.



https://www.facebook.com/NWSIndianapoli ... 370551351/


...NWS radar.weather.gov website to be replaced spring of next year to provide new features and support newer technology...

The NWS radar.weather.gov website has been the face of NWS radar data since 2003. The site routinely receives around 1.75 million hits on an average day, and hundreds of millions of hits per day during active weather. The face of technology has changed dramatically throughout the last decade. By 2018 more than 81% of Americans 13 years and over owned a smartphone and mobile devices generated more than half of all website traffic worldwide. The website is not mobile-friendly in its current form. It also utilizes technology (Flash) that will be obsolete in 2020 when Adobe stops updating and distributing Flash.

In April/May 2020, in response to these dramatic changes, NWS will replace the existing site and features with the following:

• Radar data and warnings presented on a dynamic map that allows zooming and scrolling
• Radar data will include MRMS Level 2 in Quality Controlled and non-Quality Controlled form, including rain/snow delineation of radar data
• 24x7 support with the system moving to Integrated Dissemination Program (IDP)
• Individual and CONUS and OCONUS-level consumable GIS Services
• Saving animations out for use elsewhere (e.g. social media)

#INwx #nwsind

Mid August now. It is still HOT.

Moving threads in about 2 weeks.

Ntxw wrote:Mid August now. It is still HOT.

Moving threads in about 2 weeks.

16 days until 9/1 Fall thread.

8 Days until CFB starts and 13 days until it starts (in earnest) in the State of Texas.

Ntxw wrote:Mid August now. It is still HOT.

Moving threads in about 2 weeks.

At least we are on the backside of summer now. Still about 3 weeks of possible 100 left, but by mid September we should see real cool fronts begin to slide down (come on -NAO). Soon will be time to watch for typhoon recurves.

95E is consolidating in the EPAC. This will probably reduce the odds of gulf development (but will still surge a plume of moisture associated from the monsoonal GYRE/95E). We need rain.

Today's 12Z GFS lost the Cat 5 in the gulf, and developed a new one on the Pacific side about a week from now, and disintegrates it off of the Baja peninsula a few days later. Just one model, but maybe that'll throw in some moisture to Texas(?).

Latest from Jeff Lindner:

More typical summer weather in store for the region through the weekend into early next week with daily chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Air mass is tropical and unstable across the area early this afternoon with seabreeze showers and thunderstorms having worked their way from the beaches up toward the US 59 corridor and will continue to spread inland over the next several hours. Those lucky enough to get under one of these storms will likely see a quick inch or better of rainfall while others only a few miles away could be left completely dry. Similar pattern will be in place through the weekend into early next week with a general weakness over coast TX and the “heat ridge” of earlier this week having positioned itself back over the SW US. Since grounds have dried out recently, afternoon temperatures are still reaching the upper 90’s even though the subsidence of the ridge has backed off to the west. With that in mind, and the scattered nature of the expected rains, will continue with mid to upper 90’s each afternoon and lows in the upper 70’s to low 80’s with a 30-40% chance of daily storms moving inland from the coast.

Next Week:
Weakness aloft will continue so expect an continued daily chance of showers and thunderstorms along the seabreeze boundary with little change in temperatures. Tropical wave near 55W will move through the Caribbean Sea and toward the Yucatan and potentially the Gulf of Mexico by the middle to end of next week. Various solutions are at play with this feature, so for now will just continue with a chance of afternoon thunderstorms and see if any of the moisture with this wave gets brought up toward the TX coast.

Fire Weather:
Dry and hot conditions of late has continued to dry soil moisture and fine fuels. Wildfire activity has been generally increasing across the area…mainly north and west of the metro region. Overall fire conditions are not overly favorable for fire growth with generally light winds and decent humidity and very good overnight recovery. Lightning from thunderstorms could result in isolated fire starts over the region. KBD values range from 400-700 over the region with large variations over short distances due to the convective nature of the rainfall on Wednesday and Thursday. The current average value for Harris County is 588.

The following counties have enacted countywide burn bans in SE TX:
Madison, Brazos, Walker, Grimes, Waller, Fort Bend, Galveston, Wharton, Colorado, and Jackson.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District

Ahhhh yeaaa

***** 7 DAYS UNTIL CFB STARTS *******

Go to Hell Summer!

bubba hotep wrote:Ahhhh yeaaa

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019081706/gfs_T2ma_namer_39.png

I hope this verifies. The sight of the map made me drool and It is also under 10 days!!!! Fall is on the horizon folks.

DFW hit 100 again today. Count is now 9 this summer.

104 again. 27th triple digit day.

Ntxw wrote:DFW hit 100 again today. Count is now 9 this summer.

I'll pull up the anomaly map and post it later but this "heatwave" has barely put a dent in the "cool" summer for DFW. It looks like we could end up slightly below normal, especially if we get an early cold front the last week of August.

No reason why Austin is having 27 days of 100+ weather, given the wet Spring and June we had, and DFW just up the road, nine days(??).

The Mabry weather station sensor is really close to the Mopac asphalt jungle, which has expanded. It has to get some radiant heat influences(?). I mean, common sense.

weatherdude1108 wrote:No reason why Austin is having 27 days of 100+ weather, given the wet Spring and June we had, and DFW just up the road, nine days(??).

The Mabry weather station sensor is really close to the Mopac asphalt jungle, which has expanded. It has to get some radiant heat influences(?). I mean, common sense.

it is a big difference but I'm also noticing OKC up the road has had several rounds of storms lately and we've had very little(except for the other morning briefly) and we're basically the same distance as to Austin