This mornings AFD from FWD, ECMWF is respecting the RIDGE OF DEATH.
.LONG TERM... /Issued 311 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019/
/Friday through Next Week/
The main points of interest for the extended forecast are rain
and thunderstorm chances Friday into Sunday and then once again
around the middle of next week as a front invades the region.
Between those two periods, we will likely see a rebound in
temperatures, with several locations perhaps hitting the century
mark (especially on Monday).
Until then, several weak mid-level disturbances and a surface
front to our north will serve to focus convective development,
primarily during the afternoon/evening. West/northwesterly 500mb
flow and southward-sinking outflow could bring a few showers and
storms into parts of North Texas this weekend, especially on
Saturday. Concurrently, high temperatures will be closer to
average, thanks to increased cloud cover and cooling temperatures
aloft. Most locations will likely be in the mid 90s on Friday and
Saturday.
By Sunday and especially Monday, medium-range guidance suggests
mid-level ridging will build over our region from the west,
boosting temperatures once again. Both the 00Z GFS/ECMWF show a
synoptic pattern that would favor toasty conditions on Monday,
characterized by very warm 925-850mb temps ahead of an approaching
front. As is typical, the hottest conditions will likely be across
the Big Country, but we could see several locations top 100
degrees elsewhere as well.
As for the front, its southward progress and ability to generate
showers and storms from Tuesday onward will be modulated by the
strength of this ridging overhead and how far south a
central/northern Plains impulse can dig early in the week. While
medium-range discrepancies exist regarding the amount of forcing
for ascent overhead, most guidance now show the front pushing into
North Texas on Tuesday. How much we cool behind the wind shift
(and how much rainfall is generated) will be more dependent on the
the mid/upper pattern evolution, which is where those
discrepancies exist. Therefore, the current forecast advertises
frontal arrival on Tuesday, but only shows low PoPs with near-
average highs through the middle of next week. A more
robust/southward-digging solution (regarding the northern-stream
trough) would likely necessitate a reduction in highs for future
forecasts.
Conversely, a solution closer to the 00Z ECMWF would
feature hardly any relief from the heat and perhaps sparser
precipitation coverage.The above post and any post by dhweather is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
