Looks like things will pop later today and then really take off tomorrow....
7/13/10 - 1730 Day 2 Outlook @ 45% risk..........will probably be a Moderate risk later.
SPC AC 131730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2010
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY/MIDWEST TO CENTRAL PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE WY/CO FRONT RANGE
AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT UPPER TROUGH/JET ALOFT...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND THE ADJACENT U.S. ROCKIES...IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
GENERALLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO WESTERN ONTARIO
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM...AND AN ASSOCIATED EAST-SOUTHEAST MOVING
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL BE THE
PRIMARY IMPETUSES FOR AN APPRECIABLE DEEP CONVECTIVE/SEVERE
POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY.
...UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY/MIDWEST TO CENTRAL PLAINS...
A POTENTIALLY SEVERE MCS CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE/HAIL SEEMS LIKELY TO
BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN/WESTERN MN. WHILE SOME QUESTION EXISTS REGARDING THE TIMING
OF THIS SYSTEM/DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION ALONG/NORTH OF A NORTHEAST
RETREATING WARM FRONT...IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT THIS MCS/ASSOCIATED
REMNANTS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A SEVERE THREAT ACROSS MN INTO
NORTHERN WI/WESTERN U.P. OF MI DURING THE DAY...AIDED BY A
PERSISTENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME AND STRENGTHENING LOW/MID
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.
OTHERWISE...THE AIRMASS/BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC COLD
FRONT...SOUTH/EAST OF ANY EARLY DAY OUTFLOW ACROSS MN...AND
OTHERWISE ALONG/SOUTHWEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RETREATING WARM
FRONT WILL AGGRESSIVELY DESTABILIZE OVER THE MIDWEST/UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AMID A PLENTIFUL RESERVOIR OF 70+ F
SURFACE DEWPOINTS. A CORRIDOR OF 3000-5000 J/KG MLCAPE SEEMS
PROBABLE ACROSS MUCH OF IA/EASTERN NEB INTO SOUTHEAST MN/WESTERN WI.
AS THE OVERALL PARENT UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON MORE OF A NEUTRAL TO
NEGATIVE TILT...A BASAL SECONDARY/SOUTHERN LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST WILL LIKELY
CONTRIBUTE TO VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN/WESTERN WI AND MUCH OF IA INTO
EASTERN/SOUTHERN NEB ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE DEGREE OF
MOISTURE/BUOYANCY...BENEATH AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ADVECTING ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER...IN ADDITION TO STRENGTHENING MID/LEVEL FLOW AND 40-55
KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE COLD FRONTAL
ZONE...WILL SUPPORT A MIXED MODE OF SUPERCELLS/BOWS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THE MAIN TORNADO THREAT WOULD BE A CORRIDOR ACROSS
SOUTHEAST/FAR EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI INTO NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST
IA. HERE...RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND 1 KM WILL
SUPPORT 0-1 KM SRH OF AT LEAST 150-250 MS/S2 IN VICINITY OF A WEAK
FRONTAL WAVE/TRIPLE POINT/RETREATING WARM FRONT.
AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY WITH
SUBSEQUENT DAY 1 OUTLOOKS.
Upper Midwest SVR WX Threat July 13 - 14
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Siberian Express
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 99
- Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2005 9:13 pm
- Location: Minnesota, USA
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Siberian Express
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 99
- Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2005 9:13 pm
- Location: Minnesota, USA
Twin Cities AFD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
346 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2010
.DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WILL LIKELY UNFOLD ACROSS THE FA
TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS EASTERN ND EARLY THIS MORNING NEAR THE NOSE OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET AND JUST NORTH OF +12 DEG C AT 700 MB. INDICATIONS ARE
FOR THE COMPLEX TO CONTINUE TO DRIVE EAST THIS MORNING...HOPEFULLY
PASSING JUST NORTH OF OUR MN CWA AS THE CAP BUILDS NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...
MORE STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE
MORNING ACROSS SD AND REACH INTO WEST CENTRAL MN WITH SEVERE
STORMS LIKELY.
COMPLICATING MATTER TODAY ARE DEW POINTS FORECAST INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI.
THESE DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY INTO SD/NE AND WESTERN IA. COUPLE
THAT WITH HIGHS REACHING AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S RESULTS IN
HEAT INDICES FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN
THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WI. THESE
AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE CONVECTION UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...SO
THIS RESULTED IN A HEAT ADVISORY BEING ISSUED. IT WILL BE VERY
UNCOMFORTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER 70S DEW POINTS. THE
HEAT ADVISORY RUNS FROM NOON UNTIL 6 PM.
BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE DAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES HERE
IN THE TWIN CITIES AS WELL AS POINTS EAST AND SOUTH. AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE
INITIAL LOW CURRENTLY OVER SD WILL LIFT INTO NORTHERN MN TODAY
WHILE ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT BY 21Z OVER THE
TWIN CITIES. THIS SECOND LOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SURFACE TO
3KM CAPE AOA 200 J/KG...ALONG WITH TREMENDOUS SHEAR. LOCAL
TORNADO PROBABILITIES SKYROCKET ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES METRO AREA
BY 21Z. THE HRRR IS CATCHING ON TO HAVING A SUPERCELL NEAR THE
SOUTHWEST METRO IN THE 20-21Z TIME FRAME. HENCE...A VERY DANGEROUS
AFTERNOON/EVENING IS SETTING UP AS STORMS EXPLODE OVERHEAD AND TO
THE SOUTH. THESE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WI CWA AND SE MN THROUGH
EARLY EVENING WITH PRECIP MAINLY OVER BY 06Z.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
346 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2010
.DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WILL LIKELY UNFOLD ACROSS THE FA
TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS EASTERN ND EARLY THIS MORNING NEAR THE NOSE OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET AND JUST NORTH OF +12 DEG C AT 700 MB. INDICATIONS ARE
FOR THE COMPLEX TO CONTINUE TO DRIVE EAST THIS MORNING...HOPEFULLY
PASSING JUST NORTH OF OUR MN CWA AS THE CAP BUILDS NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...
MORE STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE
MORNING ACROSS SD AND REACH INTO WEST CENTRAL MN WITH SEVERE
STORMS LIKELY.
COMPLICATING MATTER TODAY ARE DEW POINTS FORECAST INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI.
THESE DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY INTO SD/NE AND WESTERN IA. COUPLE
THAT WITH HIGHS REACHING AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S RESULTS IN
HEAT INDICES FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN
THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WI. THESE
AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE CONVECTION UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...SO
THIS RESULTED IN A HEAT ADVISORY BEING ISSUED. IT WILL BE VERY
UNCOMFORTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER 70S DEW POINTS. THE
HEAT ADVISORY RUNS FROM NOON UNTIL 6 PM.
BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE DAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES HERE
IN THE TWIN CITIES AS WELL AS POINTS EAST AND SOUTH. AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE
INITIAL LOW CURRENTLY OVER SD WILL LIFT INTO NORTHERN MN TODAY
WHILE ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT BY 21Z OVER THE
TWIN CITIES. THIS SECOND LOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SURFACE TO
3KM CAPE AOA 200 J/KG...ALONG WITH TREMENDOUS SHEAR. LOCAL
TORNADO PROBABILITIES SKYROCKET ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES METRO AREA
BY 21Z. THE HRRR IS CATCHING ON TO HAVING A SUPERCELL NEAR THE
SOUTHWEST METRO IN THE 20-21Z TIME FRAME. HENCE...A VERY DANGEROUS
AFTERNOON/EVENING IS SETTING UP AS STORMS EXPLODE OVERHEAD AND TO
THE SOUTH. THESE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WI CWA AND SE MN THROUGH
EARLY EVENING WITH PRECIP MAINLY OVER BY 06Z.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 33393
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Upper Midwest SVR WX Threat July 13 - 14
Just need to hatch the 60 to upgrade to high risk, and when mentioning derecho you wonder why they haven't? Also a rare July major tornado outbreak possible.
SPC AC 141257
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2010
VALID 141300Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPR MS VLY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK
AREA...FROM THE CNTRL PLNS TO THE UPR GRT LKS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NRN AND ERN CO...
...SYNOPSIS...
SRN SK UPR LOW WILL MOVE ENE INTO WRN ONT BY EARLY THU AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND 70-80 KT SWLY MID LVL JET NOW OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS MOVE
RAPIDLY ENE INTO ERN MN/NW WI THIS EVE...BEFORE TURNING NE INTO ONT
EARLY THU. IN THE EAST...UPR TROUGH NOW OVER MD SHOULD CONTINUE
SLOWLY EWD...WITH NRN EXTENSION MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST EARLY
TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...EXISTING RIDGE EXPECTED TO EXPAND BOTH EWD AND
WWD ACROSS THE SRN CONUS.
AT THE SFC...MAIN LOW ASSOCIATED WITH SK SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK ENE
FROM SE SK INTO MB AND OCCLUDE...AS TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES
STEADILY E ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS...AND S/SE INTO THE
CNTRL PLNS. MEANWHILE...WARM FRONT EXTENDING SE FROM SUB-SYNOPTIC
SFC LOW NOW IN NE SD SHOULD MOVE ENE ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF MN AND
WRN WI BY LATE THIS AFTN...AND CONTINUE ENE INTO WRN MI TONIGHT.
...UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
COMPLEX QLCS NOW OVER N CNTRL MN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E/ENEWD.
STORMS ON THE NRN END OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY BECOME
INCREASINGLY ELEVATED ATOP SOMEWHAT COOLER/DRIER LOW LVL SELY FLOW
EMANATING FROM WI. MEANWHILE...STORMS ON SRN END OF THE COMPLEX MAY
REMAIN STRONG AND POSSIBLY INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AS THEY
CONTINUE TO BE FED BY 45-50 KT SWLY LLJ...AND SFC HEATING FURTHER
DESTABILIZES INFLOW. THIS ACTIVITY MOVE/DEVELOP E/ESE INTO WRN WI
BY 16-17Z WITH A THREAT FOR DMGG WIND...HAIL...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE
TORNADOES.
BY EARLY AFTN...AS AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT SHIFTS ENEWD AND SFC
DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S BENEATH NARROWING EML...WARM
SECTOR WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE...WITH SBCAPE OF 3000-4000 J PER KG
EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF IA NEWD INTO SE MN/WRN WI. MODERATE
INSTABILITY /SBCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/ SHOULD ALSO EXTEND NEWD INTO
NRN MN AND NRN WI/WRN UPR MI AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
COMBINATION OF INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH UPLIFT ALONG/AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT AND/OR INVOF WEAKENING SUB-SYNOPTIC LOW SHOULD SUPPORT
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM NRN IA NEWD INTO SRN/ERN MN
AND WRN WI BY MID AFTN. STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD PROVIDED BY
CONTINUED ENE MOTION OF DAKOTAS SPEED MAX /WITH 50+ KT 700 MB FLOW/
LIKELY WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONG SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF STRONG
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH HIGH WIND.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ATTM REGARDING PREDOMINANT STORM MODE/REGIONAL
STORM EVOLUTION GIVEN PRESENCE OF LARGE AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION
NOW OVER CNTRL/ERN SD. BUT GIVEN EXPECTED STRENGTHENING OF WIND
FIELD...QUALITY OF MOISTURE INFLOW...AND LIKELIHOOD FOR STRONG SFC
HEATING...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SVR WEATHER APPEARS HIGH FOR
PARTS OF SRN/ERN MN...WRN WI...AND NRN IA. WHILE TORNADOES MAY POSE
A SIGNIFICANT THREAT DURING EARLIER STAGES OF STORM
DEVELOPMENT...SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR POTENTIAL DERECHO
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE FROM ERN/SRN MN EWD INTO WI.
FARTHER N/NE...STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND AMPLE SHEAR ON
CYCLONIC SIDE OF MID LVL SPEED MAX SUGGEST LIKELIHOOD FOR SVR
STORMS/SUPERCELLS IN ZONE OF MORE MODEST INSTABILITY EXTENDING FROM
N CNTRL/NE MN INTO UPR MI LATER THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH STORM MODE WILL BE COMPLICATED BY EFFECTS OF ONGOING
ACTIVITY AND SUBSEQUENT STORMS FORMING FARTHER S...SOME THREAT WILL
NEVERTHELESS EXIST FOR SVR WIND/HAIL AND TORNADOES. A MORE LIMITED
SVR THREAT COULD REACH NRN LWR MI EARLY THU.
...KS/SRN NEB THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY THU...
IN WRN KS...STRONG SFC HEATING...UPLIFT ALONG LEE TROUGH...AND
CONVERGENCE NEAR LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE INTERSECTION WILL PROMOTE HIGH
BASED AFTN/EVE STORMS WITH HAIL...SOME VERY LARGE...AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS. OTHER STORMS...INCLUDING MARGINAL SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT
FOR LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND AN ISOLD TORNADO...ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
IN ZONE OF STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG COLD FRONT IN SE NEB/NRN KS.
LIKELY STRENGTHENING OF SSWLY LLJ ACROSS KS TONIGHT/EARLY THU
SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS WILL EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS.
THESE SHOULD MOVE/EXPAND SLOWLY SWD WITH TIME...WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ACROSS SW NEB/NW KS BY EARLY THU. WHILE MANY
OF THESE STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED...A LIMITED THREAT FOR SVR HAIL AND
LOCALLY DMGG WIND MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE CST PERIOD.
...ERN CO THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY THU...
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE CO FRONT RANGE IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT MOVING SE
ACROSS NEB/KS SHOULD SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER N CNTRL/NE CO
BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTN AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY THU. DESPITE
COMPARATIVELY LOW CAPE...STEEP LOW TO MID LAPSE RATES AND SIZABLE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROVIDED BY BACKED LOW LVL FLOW SUGGEST A THREAT
FOR ISOLD SVR STORMS WITH HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. THE STORMS
MAY PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THU AS POST-FRONTAL FLOW STRENGTHENS AND
MOISTENS.
...SERN STATES...
SURFACE HEATING OF VERY MOIST...MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR WILL SUPPORT
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG DIURNAL STORMS ALONG LEE TROUGH EXTENDING
SSW FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA TO SRN GA. UPLIFT ALONG SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS IN N FL. HIGH PW VALUES SUGGEST
A LOW PROBABILISTIC THREAT FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS.
..CORFIDI/ROGERS.. 07/14/2010
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1417Z (10:17AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
SPC AC 141257
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2010
VALID 141300Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPR MS VLY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK
AREA...FROM THE CNTRL PLNS TO THE UPR GRT LKS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NRN AND ERN CO...
...SYNOPSIS...
SRN SK UPR LOW WILL MOVE ENE INTO WRN ONT BY EARLY THU AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND 70-80 KT SWLY MID LVL JET NOW OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS MOVE
RAPIDLY ENE INTO ERN MN/NW WI THIS EVE...BEFORE TURNING NE INTO ONT
EARLY THU. IN THE EAST...UPR TROUGH NOW OVER MD SHOULD CONTINUE
SLOWLY EWD...WITH NRN EXTENSION MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST EARLY
TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...EXISTING RIDGE EXPECTED TO EXPAND BOTH EWD AND
WWD ACROSS THE SRN CONUS.
AT THE SFC...MAIN LOW ASSOCIATED WITH SK SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK ENE
FROM SE SK INTO MB AND OCCLUDE...AS TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES
STEADILY E ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS...AND S/SE INTO THE
CNTRL PLNS. MEANWHILE...WARM FRONT EXTENDING SE FROM SUB-SYNOPTIC
SFC LOW NOW IN NE SD SHOULD MOVE ENE ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF MN AND
WRN WI BY LATE THIS AFTN...AND CONTINUE ENE INTO WRN MI TONIGHT.
...UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
COMPLEX QLCS NOW OVER N CNTRL MN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E/ENEWD.
STORMS ON THE NRN END OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY BECOME
INCREASINGLY ELEVATED ATOP SOMEWHAT COOLER/DRIER LOW LVL SELY FLOW
EMANATING FROM WI. MEANWHILE...STORMS ON SRN END OF THE COMPLEX MAY
REMAIN STRONG AND POSSIBLY INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AS THEY
CONTINUE TO BE FED BY 45-50 KT SWLY LLJ...AND SFC HEATING FURTHER
DESTABILIZES INFLOW. THIS ACTIVITY MOVE/DEVELOP E/ESE INTO WRN WI
BY 16-17Z WITH A THREAT FOR DMGG WIND...HAIL...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE
TORNADOES.
BY EARLY AFTN...AS AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT SHIFTS ENEWD AND SFC
DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S BENEATH NARROWING EML...WARM
SECTOR WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE...WITH SBCAPE OF 3000-4000 J PER KG
EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF IA NEWD INTO SE MN/WRN WI. MODERATE
INSTABILITY /SBCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/ SHOULD ALSO EXTEND NEWD INTO
NRN MN AND NRN WI/WRN UPR MI AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
COMBINATION OF INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH UPLIFT ALONG/AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT AND/OR INVOF WEAKENING SUB-SYNOPTIC LOW SHOULD SUPPORT
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM NRN IA NEWD INTO SRN/ERN MN
AND WRN WI BY MID AFTN. STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD PROVIDED BY
CONTINUED ENE MOTION OF DAKOTAS SPEED MAX /WITH 50+ KT 700 MB FLOW/
LIKELY WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONG SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF STRONG
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH HIGH WIND.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ATTM REGARDING PREDOMINANT STORM MODE/REGIONAL
STORM EVOLUTION GIVEN PRESENCE OF LARGE AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION
NOW OVER CNTRL/ERN SD. BUT GIVEN EXPECTED STRENGTHENING OF WIND
FIELD...QUALITY OF MOISTURE INFLOW...AND LIKELIHOOD FOR STRONG SFC
HEATING...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SVR WEATHER APPEARS HIGH FOR
PARTS OF SRN/ERN MN...WRN WI...AND NRN IA. WHILE TORNADOES MAY POSE
A SIGNIFICANT THREAT DURING EARLIER STAGES OF STORM
DEVELOPMENT...SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR POTENTIAL DERECHO
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE FROM ERN/SRN MN EWD INTO WI.
FARTHER N/NE...STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND AMPLE SHEAR ON
CYCLONIC SIDE OF MID LVL SPEED MAX SUGGEST LIKELIHOOD FOR SVR
STORMS/SUPERCELLS IN ZONE OF MORE MODEST INSTABILITY EXTENDING FROM
N CNTRL/NE MN INTO UPR MI LATER THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH STORM MODE WILL BE COMPLICATED BY EFFECTS OF ONGOING
ACTIVITY AND SUBSEQUENT STORMS FORMING FARTHER S...SOME THREAT WILL
NEVERTHELESS EXIST FOR SVR WIND/HAIL AND TORNADOES. A MORE LIMITED
SVR THREAT COULD REACH NRN LWR MI EARLY THU.
...KS/SRN NEB THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY THU...
IN WRN KS...STRONG SFC HEATING...UPLIFT ALONG LEE TROUGH...AND
CONVERGENCE NEAR LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE INTERSECTION WILL PROMOTE HIGH
BASED AFTN/EVE STORMS WITH HAIL...SOME VERY LARGE...AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS. OTHER STORMS...INCLUDING MARGINAL SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT
FOR LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND AN ISOLD TORNADO...ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
IN ZONE OF STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG COLD FRONT IN SE NEB/NRN KS.
LIKELY STRENGTHENING OF SSWLY LLJ ACROSS KS TONIGHT/EARLY THU
SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS WILL EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS.
THESE SHOULD MOVE/EXPAND SLOWLY SWD WITH TIME...WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ACROSS SW NEB/NW KS BY EARLY THU. WHILE MANY
OF THESE STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED...A LIMITED THREAT FOR SVR HAIL AND
LOCALLY DMGG WIND MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE CST PERIOD.
...ERN CO THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY THU...
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE CO FRONT RANGE IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT MOVING SE
ACROSS NEB/KS SHOULD SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER N CNTRL/NE CO
BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTN AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY THU. DESPITE
COMPARATIVELY LOW CAPE...STEEP LOW TO MID LAPSE RATES AND SIZABLE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROVIDED BY BACKED LOW LVL FLOW SUGGEST A THREAT
FOR ISOLD SVR STORMS WITH HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. THE STORMS
MAY PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THU AS POST-FRONTAL FLOW STRENGTHENS AND
MOISTENS.
...SERN STATES...
SURFACE HEATING OF VERY MOIST...MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR WILL SUPPORT
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG DIURNAL STORMS ALONG LEE TROUGH EXTENDING
SSW FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA TO SRN GA. UPLIFT ALONG SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS IN N FL. HIGH PW VALUES SUGGEST
A LOW PROBABILISTIC THREAT FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS.
..CORFIDI/ROGERS.. 07/14/2010
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1417Z (10:17AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 33393
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1298
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1029 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IA...SERN MN THROUGH W-CNTRL AND SWRN WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 141529Z - 141730Z
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ELEVATED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER NERN IA AND
SERN MN TO INTENSIFY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. INITIAL PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...BUT THE RISK FOR TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WIND SHOULD INCREASE LATER TODAY. CONVECTIVE AND MESOSCALE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
LATE THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN NERN SD
SWWD INTO NWRN NEB. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM SERN SD INTO
CNTRL NEB WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW INTO CNTRL MN
THROUGH NWRN AND SERN WI. THE WARM SECTOR IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH
3000-4000 J/KG MLCAPE INDICATED ACROSS IA INTO SRN MN. A WARM EML IS
ADVECTING NEWD AND IS SERVING TO CAP THE ATMOSPHERE TO SURFACE BASED
STORMS. THE STORMS ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN A
ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET.
ACTIVITY IS ELEVATED ABOVE THE CAP WITH PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
LIMITED TO ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IN THE NEAR TERM. AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZES AND TEMPERATURES APPROACH 90F...CHANCES FOR
SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT WILL INCREASE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE
WITH ERN EXTENT TOWARD WRN WI WHERE THE CAP IS LIKELY NOT AS STRONG
ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF THE WARMER EML AND WHERE STRONGER DIABATIC
WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS OCCURRING. ONCE SURFACE BASED
STORMS DEVELOP...RISK FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES.
..DIAL.. 07/14/2010
ATTN...WFO...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX...
LAT...LON 43679352 44489109 43888962 43148971 42719142 42719321
43679352
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1029 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IA...SERN MN THROUGH W-CNTRL AND SWRN WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 141529Z - 141730Z
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ELEVATED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER NERN IA AND
SERN MN TO INTENSIFY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. INITIAL PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...BUT THE RISK FOR TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WIND SHOULD INCREASE LATER TODAY. CONVECTIVE AND MESOSCALE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
LATE THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN NERN SD
SWWD INTO NWRN NEB. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM SERN SD INTO
CNTRL NEB WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW INTO CNTRL MN
THROUGH NWRN AND SERN WI. THE WARM SECTOR IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH
3000-4000 J/KG MLCAPE INDICATED ACROSS IA INTO SRN MN. A WARM EML IS
ADVECTING NEWD AND IS SERVING TO CAP THE ATMOSPHERE TO SURFACE BASED
STORMS. THE STORMS ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN A
ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET.
ACTIVITY IS ELEVATED ABOVE THE CAP WITH PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
LIMITED TO ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IN THE NEAR TERM. AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZES AND TEMPERATURES APPROACH 90F...CHANCES FOR
SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT WILL INCREASE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE
WITH ERN EXTENT TOWARD WRN WI WHERE THE CAP IS LIKELY NOT AS STRONG
ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF THE WARMER EML AND WHERE STRONGER DIABATIC
WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS OCCURRING. ONCE SURFACE BASED
STORMS DEVELOP...RISK FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES.
..DIAL.. 07/14/2010
ATTN...WFO...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX...
LAT...LON 43679352 44489109 43888962 43148971 42719142 42719321
43679352
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They probably will upgrade to a high risk event once things get going IMO...
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 33393
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Probs are 60/50. We might see a PDS Tornado Watch later, don't normally see that in July.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 473
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
FAR NORTHEAST IOWA
WESTERN MICHIGAN UPPER PENINSULA
FAR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
LAKE MICHIGAN
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1145 AM UNTIL
700 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF LA
CROSSE WISCONSIN TO 25 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF MARQUETTE
MICHIGAN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 472...
DISCUSSION...BOW ECHO OVER N-CNTRL WI IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD
TODAY WITH MORE DISCRETE...SUPERCELLULAR MODES ANTICIPATED ALONG THE
SRN/SWRN FLANK OF MATURE MCS. WHILE DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN THE
PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THE BOWING SYSTEM...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL LARGE
HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
SRN PORTION OF WW AREA WHERE MODERATE/STRONG INSTABILITY WILL
COINCIDE WITH STRONG LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035.
...MEAD
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 473
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
FAR NORTHEAST IOWA
WESTERN MICHIGAN UPPER PENINSULA
FAR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
LAKE MICHIGAN
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1145 AM UNTIL
700 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF LA
CROSSE WISCONSIN TO 25 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF MARQUETTE
MICHIGAN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 472...
DISCUSSION...BOW ECHO OVER N-CNTRL WI IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD
TODAY WITH MORE DISCRETE...SUPERCELLULAR MODES ANTICIPATED ALONG THE
SRN/SWRN FLANK OF MATURE MCS. WHILE DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN THE
PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THE BOWING SYSTEM...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL LARGE
HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
SRN PORTION OF WW AREA WHERE MODERATE/STRONG INSTABILITY WILL
COINCIDE WITH STRONG LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035.
...MEAD
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 33393
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
The parameters in southern Minnesota and central Iowa are OFF THE CHARTS. Only the cap can save them now, but it just might hold.
EHI: around 13-15 (which is the highest I have ever seen)
CAPE: up to 7,500
Supercell Composite: well into the 40s
LI: up around -12
All that is easily capable of widespread extreme severe weather. Shear is certainly sufficient for strong to violent tornadoes, although not as high as in spring events. The cap is still fairly strong right now, and there is definitely a chance it might hold up all the way through.
EHI: around 13-15 (which is the highest I have ever seen)
CAPE: up to 7,500
Supercell Composite: well into the 40s
LI: up around -12
All that is easily capable of widespread extreme severe weather. Shear is certainly sufficient for strong to violent tornadoes, although not as high as in spring events. The cap is still fairly strong right now, and there is definitely a chance it might hold up all the way through.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 33393
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1299
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND CNTRL MN THROUGH A PORTION OF NWRN WI
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 472...
VALID 141734Z - 141930Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 472 CONTINUES.
GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORM REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO EXIST
OVER THE SRN HALF OF WW 472 THIS AFTERNOON.
CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAINS OVER NWRN WI WITH
TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SWWD INTO SRN MN. WARM SECTOR IS VERY
UNSTABLE OVER SRN MN INTO IA...BUT REMAINS CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED
STORMS DUE TO EWD ADVECTING EML. NEW REDEVELOPMENT IN WAKE OF
INITIAL MCS HAS THUS FAR BEEN CONFINED TO THE ZONE OF STRONGER
ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WIDESPREAD
HIGHLY ELEVATED CONVECTION PERSISTS FROM ERN NEB AND SD INTO CNTRL
MN WITHIN PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE DOWNSTREAM FROM PROGRESSIVE
VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH BASE OF NRN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH. ATTENDANT
CLOUDS ARE LIMITING DIABATIC HEATING OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA EXCEPT
FOR IA INTO SRN MN. PERSISTENT ASCENT AND HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WARMING OF BOUNDARY LAYER MAY
EVENTUALLY WEAKEN THE CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS TO
REDEVELOP OVER SRN MN. LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE VEERING OVER SRN MN IN
WAKE OF LEAD IMPULSE WHICH SUGGESTS HODOGRAPH SIZE WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE FROM THE WEST...BUT BULK SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS.
..DIAL.. 07/14/2010
ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...
LAT...LON 45589191 44999116 44309217 44209369 44369463 44879472
45549336 45589191
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND CNTRL MN THROUGH A PORTION OF NWRN WI
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 472...
VALID 141734Z - 141930Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 472 CONTINUES.
GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORM REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO EXIST
OVER THE SRN HALF OF WW 472 THIS AFTERNOON.
CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAINS OVER NWRN WI WITH
TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SWWD INTO SRN MN. WARM SECTOR IS VERY
UNSTABLE OVER SRN MN INTO IA...BUT REMAINS CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED
STORMS DUE TO EWD ADVECTING EML. NEW REDEVELOPMENT IN WAKE OF
INITIAL MCS HAS THUS FAR BEEN CONFINED TO THE ZONE OF STRONGER
ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WIDESPREAD
HIGHLY ELEVATED CONVECTION PERSISTS FROM ERN NEB AND SD INTO CNTRL
MN WITHIN PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE DOWNSTREAM FROM PROGRESSIVE
VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH BASE OF NRN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH. ATTENDANT
CLOUDS ARE LIMITING DIABATIC HEATING OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA EXCEPT
FOR IA INTO SRN MN. PERSISTENT ASCENT AND HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WARMING OF BOUNDARY LAYER MAY
EVENTUALLY WEAKEN THE CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS TO
REDEVELOP OVER SRN MN. LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE VEERING OVER SRN MN IN
WAKE OF LEAD IMPULSE WHICH SUGGESTS HODOGRAPH SIZE WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE FROM THE WEST...BUT BULK SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS.
..DIAL.. 07/14/2010
ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...
LAT...LON 45589191 44999116 44309217 44209369 44369463 44879472
45549336 45589191
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Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:The parameters in southern Minnesota and central Iowa are OFF THE CHARTS. Only the cap can save them now, but it just might hold.
EHI: around 13-15 (which is the highest I have ever seen)
CAPE: up to 7,500
Supercell Composite: well into the 40s
LI: up around -12
All that is easily capable of widespread extreme severe weather. Shear is certainly sufficient for strong to violent tornadoes, although not as high as in spring events. The cap is still fairly strong right now, and there is definitely a chance it might hold up all the way through.
Wow some of those parameters are amazing, if the cap breaks we'll probably see an upgrade to high risk because those parameters are pretty immense!
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 33393
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Upper Midwest SVR WX Threat July 13 - 14
Current conditions in the threat area (1:00 pm CDT)
ILLINOIS
Chicago Midway - A few clouds, 87/68
Chicago O'Hare - Partly cloudy, 87/70
Joliet - Clear, 88/79
Rockford - A few clouds, 87/71
IOWA
Ames - A few clouds, 93/81
Burlington - Clear, 91/81
Cedar Rapids - A few clouds, 88/79
Davenport - Clear, 88/77
Des Moines - A few clouds, 93/80
Dubuque - Clear, 85/75
Fort Dodge - A few clouds, 91/81
Iowa City - Clear, 90/80
Mason City - Partly cloudy, 90/79
Ottumwa - A few clouds, 88/80
Sioux City - Partly cloudy, 88/78
Waterloo - A few clouds, 87/80
MICHIGAN
Escanaba - Partly cloudy, 73/63
Marquette - Clear, 79/55
MINNESOTA
Austin - Mostly cloudy, 84/77
Brainerd - Mostly cloudy, 77/72
Bemidji - Mostly cloudy, 77/70
Duluth - Overcast, 66/63
Fergus Falls - Mostly cloudy, 73/72
Hibbing - Light rain, 68/65
International Falls - Partly cloudy, 73/67
Mankato - Partly cloudy, 88/81
Marshall - Mostly cloudy, 82/73
Minneapolis - Mostly cloudy, 86/78
Rochester - Mostly cloudy, 84/78
St. Cloud - Mostly cloudy, 80/76
St. Paul - Mostly cloudy, 83/78
Worthington - A few clouds, 82/75
NEBRASKA
Omaha - Partly cloudy, 94/80
WISCONSIN
Appleton - Partly cloudy, 82/70
Ashland - Light rain, 70/68
Eau Claire - Mostly cloudy, 75/72
Green Bay - Mostly cloudy, 84/67
Janesville - A few clouds, 90/72
Kenosha - Clear, 85/71
La Crosse - Light rainshower, 85/74
Madison - Partly cloudy, 86/72
Milwaukee - A few clouds, 83/71
Rhinelander - Thunderstorm, 70/66
Rice Lake - Thunderstorm, 70/68
Wausau - Mostly cloudy, 78/69
ILLINOIS
Chicago Midway - A few clouds, 87/68
Chicago O'Hare - Partly cloudy, 87/70
Joliet - Clear, 88/79
Rockford - A few clouds, 87/71
IOWA
Ames - A few clouds, 93/81
Burlington - Clear, 91/81
Cedar Rapids - A few clouds, 88/79
Davenport - Clear, 88/77
Des Moines - A few clouds, 93/80
Dubuque - Clear, 85/75
Fort Dodge - A few clouds, 91/81
Iowa City - Clear, 90/80
Mason City - Partly cloudy, 90/79
Ottumwa - A few clouds, 88/80
Sioux City - Partly cloudy, 88/78
Waterloo - A few clouds, 87/80
MICHIGAN
Escanaba - Partly cloudy, 73/63
Marquette - Clear, 79/55
MINNESOTA
Austin - Mostly cloudy, 84/77
Brainerd - Mostly cloudy, 77/72
Bemidji - Mostly cloudy, 77/70
Duluth - Overcast, 66/63
Fergus Falls - Mostly cloudy, 73/72
Hibbing - Light rain, 68/65
International Falls - Partly cloudy, 73/67
Mankato - Partly cloudy, 88/81
Marshall - Mostly cloudy, 82/73
Minneapolis - Mostly cloudy, 86/78
Rochester - Mostly cloudy, 84/78
St. Cloud - Mostly cloudy, 80/76
St. Paul - Mostly cloudy, 83/78
Worthington - A few clouds, 82/75
NEBRASKA
Omaha - Partly cloudy, 94/80
WISCONSIN
Appleton - Partly cloudy, 82/70
Ashland - Light rain, 70/68
Eau Claire - Mostly cloudy, 75/72
Green Bay - Mostly cloudy, 84/67
Janesville - A few clouds, 90/72
Kenosha - Clear, 85/71
La Crosse - Light rainshower, 85/74
Madison - Partly cloudy, 86/72
Milwaukee - A few clouds, 83/71
Rhinelander - Thunderstorm, 70/66
Rice Lake - Thunderstorm, 70/68
Wausau - Mostly cloudy, 78/69
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Some pretty impressive soundings out there right now, as you say if the cap does weaken then things will explode into life, just hope there aren't too many strong tornadoes...
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 33393
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re:
KWT wrote:Some pretty impressive soundings out there right now, as you say if the cap does weaken then things will explode into life, just hope there aren't too many strong tornadoes...
If the cap breaks over a large area, we could see violent tornadoes easily. But we might get away with this one since there is no guarantee it will break - the only thing preventing a high risk IMO.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 33393
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Upper Midwest SVR WX Threat July 13 - 14
EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
235 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010
MNC037-049-142015-
/O.CON.KMPX.TO.W.0059.000000T0000Z-100714T2015Z/
DAKOTA MN-GOODHUE MN-
235 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN GOODHUE AND
SOUTHERN DAKOTA COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...
AT 232 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTH OF NORTHFIELD...OR 16 MILES NORTH
OF FARIBAULT...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STANTON...RANDOLPH...HAMPTON...CANNON FALLS...NEW TRIER AND
MIESVILLE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN THE TWIN CITIES.
&&
LAT...LON 4448 9304 4448 9323 4452 9329 4471 9282
4448 9275 4447 9304
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 248DEG 28KT 4452 9313
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
235 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010
MNC037-049-142015-
/O.CON.KMPX.TO.W.0059.000000T0000Z-100714T2015Z/
DAKOTA MN-GOODHUE MN-
235 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN GOODHUE AND
SOUTHERN DAKOTA COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...
AT 232 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTH OF NORTHFIELD...OR 16 MILES NORTH
OF FARIBAULT...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STANTON...RANDOLPH...HAMPTON...CANNON FALLS...NEW TRIER AND
MIESVILLE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN THE TWIN CITIES.
&&
LAT...LON 4448 9304 4448 9323 4452 9329 4471 9282
4448 9275 4447 9304
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 248DEG 28KT 4452 9313
$$
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 33393
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Upper Midwest SVR WX Threat July 13 - 14
PDS watch coming - maybe a High Risk as well. Can't remember the last time there was a PDS Tornado Watch in July.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1302
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN INTO W-CNTRL AND SWRN MN AND EXTREME NERN
IA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 472...473...
VALID 141954Z - 142130Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 472...473...CONTINUES.
THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND APPEAR TO BE
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING FROM SERN MN INTO
W-CNTRL THROUGH SWRN WI AND EXTREME NERN IA. A PDS TORNADO WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON FOR PARTS OF SERN MN INTO CNTRL AND SRN
WI.
STORMS HAVE INTENSIFIED IN VICINITY OF AN E-W ORIENTED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND WITHIN ZONE OF PRE-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE FROM
W-CNTRL WI SSWWD INTO SERN MN. THE SHEAR-PARAMETER SPACE WITHIN THIS
REGION HAS BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF STRONG
TORNADOES. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY FROM 300-400 M2/S2 ALONG WITH 2000-3000 J/KG. SUPERCELLS
WITH STRONG TORNADOES AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WIND WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
..DIAL.. 07/14/2010
ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...
LAT...LON 45089187 44639036 43988967 43329048 43379207 44189262
45089187
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1302
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN INTO W-CNTRL AND SWRN MN AND EXTREME NERN
IA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 472...473...
VALID 141954Z - 142130Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 472...473...CONTINUES.
THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND APPEAR TO BE
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING FROM SERN MN INTO
W-CNTRL THROUGH SWRN WI AND EXTREME NERN IA. A PDS TORNADO WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON FOR PARTS OF SERN MN INTO CNTRL AND SRN
WI.
STORMS HAVE INTENSIFIED IN VICINITY OF AN E-W ORIENTED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND WITHIN ZONE OF PRE-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE FROM
W-CNTRL WI SSWWD INTO SERN MN. THE SHEAR-PARAMETER SPACE WITHIN THIS
REGION HAS BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF STRONG
TORNADOES. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY FROM 300-400 M2/S2 ALONG WITH 2000-3000 J/KG. SUPERCELLS
WITH STRONG TORNADOES AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WIND WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
..DIAL.. 07/14/2010
ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...
LAT...LON 45089187 44639036 43988967 43329048 43379207 44189262
45089187
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 33393
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
No upgrade.
SPC AC 142000
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010
VALID 142000Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHEAST MN AND MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CO FRONT RANGE...
...UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL PLAINS...
A MULTI-MODAL/MULTI-FACETED CONSIDERABLE SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE WILL
CONTINUE TO UNFOLD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THE
GREATEST TORNADO THREAT SEEMS LIKELY TO FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MN/FAR NORTHEAST IA INTO MUCH OF WESTERN/CENTRAL WI...CHIEFLY WITH
TSTMS NOW INITIATING ALONG A PRE-COLD FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH...WITH
SUBSEQUENT INTERACTION WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT/MODIFYING OUTFLOW
FROM SOUTHEAST MN INTO WESTERN WI. PLEASE SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
1302.
ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR/GROW UPSCALE
ALONG THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT A BIT FARTHER WEST ACROSS
MN...SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS IA INTO EASTERN/SOUTHERN NEB AND NORTHERN
KS. SPECIAL 18Z RAOBS FROM MINNEAPOLIS/OMAHA SAMPLE THE ROBUST
BUOYANCY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MLCAPES OF 4000-6000 J/KG NOW
ESTIMATED TO BE IN PLACE FROM SOUTHEAST MN/FAR WESTERN WI INTO MUCH
OF IA/EASTERN NEB. THE 18Z MINNEAPOLIS OBSERVED RAOB ALSO SAMPLED
STRENGTHENING MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WITH 50 KT ABOVE 3 KM. THIS IS
SIMILAR TO A MULTI-HOUR TREND OF MARKEDLY INCREASING FLOW ALOFT
UPSTREAM PER THE SIOUX FALLS WSR-88D VWP AND WOOD LAKE MN
PROFILER...AHEAD OF A POTENT/COMPACT BASAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED TO
BE CROSSING THE DAKOTAS AT MID AFTERNOON PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
PLEASE CONSULT THE LATEST WATCHES/MESOSCALE DETAILS FOR THE MOST
CONTEMPORARY SHORT TERM INFORMATION.
..GUYER.. 07/14/2010
SPC AC 142000
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010
VALID 142000Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHEAST MN AND MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CO FRONT RANGE...
...UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL PLAINS...
A MULTI-MODAL/MULTI-FACETED CONSIDERABLE SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE WILL
CONTINUE TO UNFOLD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THE
GREATEST TORNADO THREAT SEEMS LIKELY TO FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MN/FAR NORTHEAST IA INTO MUCH OF WESTERN/CENTRAL WI...CHIEFLY WITH
TSTMS NOW INITIATING ALONG A PRE-COLD FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH...WITH
SUBSEQUENT INTERACTION WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT/MODIFYING OUTFLOW
FROM SOUTHEAST MN INTO WESTERN WI. PLEASE SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
1302.
ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR/GROW UPSCALE
ALONG THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT A BIT FARTHER WEST ACROSS
MN...SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS IA INTO EASTERN/SOUTHERN NEB AND NORTHERN
KS. SPECIAL 18Z RAOBS FROM MINNEAPOLIS/OMAHA SAMPLE THE ROBUST
BUOYANCY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MLCAPES OF 4000-6000 J/KG NOW
ESTIMATED TO BE IN PLACE FROM SOUTHEAST MN/FAR WESTERN WI INTO MUCH
OF IA/EASTERN NEB. THE 18Z MINNEAPOLIS OBSERVED RAOB ALSO SAMPLED
STRENGTHENING MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WITH 50 KT ABOVE 3 KM. THIS IS
SIMILAR TO A MULTI-HOUR TREND OF MARKEDLY INCREASING FLOW ALOFT
UPSTREAM PER THE SIOUX FALLS WSR-88D VWP AND WOOD LAKE MN
PROFILER...AHEAD OF A POTENT/COMPACT BASAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED TO
BE CROSSING THE DAKOTAS AT MID AFTERNOON PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
PLEASE CONSULT THE LATEST WATCHES/MESOSCALE DETAILS FOR THE MOST
CONTEMPORARY SHORT TERM INFORMATION.
..GUYER.. 07/14/2010
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 33393
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1303
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0333 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL THROUGH NRN MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 142033Z - 142200Z
STORMS DEVELOPING OVER CNTRL THROUGH NRN MN MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND...HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR
TWO. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.
STORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF DPVA AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ATTENDING A PROGRESSIVE VORT MAX AND OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT FROM
N-CNTRL THROUGH CNTRL MN. ACTIVITY HAS FORMED ALONG AN AXIS OF
MODEST INSTABILITY WITH MORE LIMITED INSTABILITY FARTHER EAST INTO
NERN MN WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN PARTIALLY OVERTURNED BY
PREVIOUS CONVECTION. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVER CNTRL MN IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO INFLOW OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR.
TENDENCY WILL BE FOR LOW LEVEL WINDS TO VEER WITH TIME AS SURFACE
LOW LIFTS NEWD. HOWEVER...BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KT WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS.
..DIAL.. 07/14/2010
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...
LAT...LON 48339279 46729266 45249378 45079532 46399425 47469405
48389408 48339279
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0333 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL THROUGH NRN MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 142033Z - 142200Z
STORMS DEVELOPING OVER CNTRL THROUGH NRN MN MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND...HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR
TWO. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.
STORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF DPVA AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ATTENDING A PROGRESSIVE VORT MAX AND OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT FROM
N-CNTRL THROUGH CNTRL MN. ACTIVITY HAS FORMED ALONG AN AXIS OF
MODEST INSTABILITY WITH MORE LIMITED INSTABILITY FARTHER EAST INTO
NERN MN WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN PARTIALLY OVERTURNED BY
PREVIOUS CONVECTION. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVER CNTRL MN IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO INFLOW OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR.
TENDENCY WILL BE FOR LOW LEVEL WINDS TO VEER WITH TIME AS SURFACE
LOW LIFTS NEWD. HOWEVER...BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KT WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS.
..DIAL.. 07/14/2010
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...
LAT...LON 48339279 46729266 45249378 45079532 46399425 47469405
48389408 48339279
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 33393
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 474
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
350 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PART OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INCLUDING THE
ARROWHEAD
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 350 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF SAINT CLOUD MINNESOTA TO 75 MILES NORTH OF HIBBING
MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 472...WW 473...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH
ALONG DEEP-LAYER WIND SHIFT PROGRESSING EWD THROUGH THE REGION.
AMBIENT AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE MOIST AND RELATIVELY WARM WITH MLCAPE
OF 1000-1500 J/KG. AREA VWPS INDICATE THAT VERTICAL SHEAR IS QUITE
STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. WHILE A TORNADO IS
POSSIBLE...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25025.
...MEAD
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 474
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
350 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PART OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INCLUDING THE
ARROWHEAD
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 350 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF SAINT CLOUD MINNESOTA TO 75 MILES NORTH OF HIBBING
MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 472...WW 473...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH
ALONG DEEP-LAYER WIND SHIFT PROGRESSING EWD THROUGH THE REGION.
AMBIENT AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE MOIST AND RELATIVELY WARM WITH MLCAPE
OF 1000-1500 J/KG. AREA VWPS INDICATE THAT VERTICAL SHEAR IS QUITE
STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. WHILE A TORNADO IS
POSSIBLE...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25025.
...MEAD
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Siberian Express
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 99
- Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2005 9:13 pm
- Location: Minnesota, USA
Re: Upper Midwest SVR WX Threat July 13 - 14
Wow that was something, went into town earlier and the AM radio was full static, even though it was somewhat clear. Line blew through, some real heavy wind, few branches down and horizontal rain. Thankfully no tornadoes. Reports of a small twister north of Northfield, MN. I tell you though, went I was out and about at about 2:00PM, you could "feel it" in the air. It could have been so much worse. I don't think the event is over, yet. Cold front still needs to pass and the sun is coming out. SPC Meso #1302........mentions possibility of a PDS tornado watch.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 33393
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Upper Midwest SVR WX Threat July 13 - 14
TORNADO WARNING
WIC019-053-142145-
/O.NEW.KARX.TO.W.0008.100714T2120Z-100714T2145Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
420 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LA CROSSE HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN...
NORTHERN JACKSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...
* UNTIL 445 PM CDT
* AT 415 PM CDT...SPOTTER REPORTED A TORNADO ON THE GROUND JUST
SOUTHEAST OF OSSEO. THIS TORNADO WAS MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
HUMBIRD AROUND 425 PM...
NEILLSVILLE AROUND 440 PM...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER IN A BASEMENT OR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR
AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS! CARS AND MOBILE HOMES SHOULD BE ABANDONED
FOR A STURDY BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT...LAY FLAT IN A DITCH AND
COVER YOUR HEAD.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHEASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.
&&
LAT...LON 4442 9116 4459 9115 4460 9107 4460 9094
4463 9093 4474 9031 4458 9030 4438 9031
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 260DEG 43KT 4451 9106
$$
BOYNE
WIC019-053-142145-
/O.NEW.KARX.TO.W.0008.100714T2120Z-100714T2145Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
420 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LA CROSSE HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN...
NORTHERN JACKSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...
* UNTIL 445 PM CDT
* AT 415 PM CDT...SPOTTER REPORTED A TORNADO ON THE GROUND JUST
SOUTHEAST OF OSSEO. THIS TORNADO WAS MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
HUMBIRD AROUND 425 PM...
NEILLSVILLE AROUND 440 PM...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER IN A BASEMENT OR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR
AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS! CARS AND MOBILE HOMES SHOULD BE ABANDONED
FOR A STURDY BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT...LAY FLAT IN A DITCH AND
COVER YOUR HEAD.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHEASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.
&&
LAT...LON 4442 9116 4459 9115 4460 9107 4460 9094
4463 9093 4474 9031 4458 9030 4438 9031
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 260DEG 43KT 4451 9106
$$
BOYNE
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